CHACRDIGEST
STORM CLOUDS SHROUD RETURN TO ‘GREAT-POWER’ PEACE
An English folk rhyme foretells that ‘March winds and April showers, bring forth May flowers’. After the geopolitical storms in March and April, renewed conflict between India and Pakistan, an Israeli offensive in Gaza, Russian sponsored sabotage across Europe, and indications of increased Chinese military preparedness suggest, sadly, there appears very little prospect of ‘flowers’ any time soon. Meanwhile the 80th anniversary of VE Day enabled many to reflect on the value of history, the fragmentation of the international order established after the end of the Second World War and the realities of global conflict.
Antony Beevor’s article in Foreign Affairs highlights that clashing world-views remain a source of tension and instability in global politics whilst the increasing loss of a direct connection to the Second World War means losing the shared resolve that for 80 years has produced an unbroken, if highly imperfect, great-power peace. Beevor concludes: “The end of World War II paved the way for a new international order based on respect for national sovereignty and borders. But now, a steep bill for American ambivalence, European complacency, and Russian revanchism may finally be coming due.”
INDO-PACIFIC REGION
On 7 May, India launched Operation Sindoor, the targeting of “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Kashmir following attacks in India on 22 April. Commentators rushed to make sense of renewed open conflict between two nuclear powers, hampered by significant mis- and disinformation that continue to cloud what actually happened. Three articles are particularly worth exploring. The Royal United Services Institute points out that a lack of public engagement by India enabled a PR win for Pakistan and Chinese arms manufacturers following reports that Chinese-built J-10s shot down up to five Indian aircraft, including French-made Rafaels. Interestingly, analysis now suggests Pakistani vulnerability to Indian air attack. However, the article highlights that, more importantly, India accepted heightened operational risk as a consequence of limited rules of engagement. The article concludes India sought to degrade a specific terrorist ecosystem and was able to avoid a conflict with the Pakistani state through clear strategic messaging. For specific analysis of tactical actions – including the first use of cruise missiles by India and conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles by Pakistan – read Professor Chris Clary’s Working Paper for The Stimson Center. The Financial Times traces the May conflict back to the stripping of Jammu and Kashmir of its special autonomous status by Prime Minister Modi in 2019. This brought it under New Delhi’s direct rule and led to downgraded diplomatic and economic ties with Pakistan.
CHINA
The Lowy Institute points out that over the past year President Xi Jinping has ‘purged’ former Defence Ministers Generals Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu for violating “political discipline” and Admiral Miao Hua, Defence Minister Dong Jun and CMC Vice Chairman
General He Weidong were placed under investigation. However, it concludes that, far from indicating power struggles between PLA factions, CCP historical precedents show that purges consolidate presidential authority rather than diminish it.
In this context, Foreign Affairs’ suggestion that the Risk of War in the Taiwan Strait is High – and Getting Higher deserves contemplation. The article suggests Beijing’s effort to dehumanise Taiwan’s President Lai and hawkish voices urging an ever more aggressive approach reflect deep anxiety about the trajectory of cross-strait relations, particularly the perception that Lai is pushing Taiwan toward independence. Compounding these anxieties are the apparent divisions within the US administration, with the risk China may doubt US commitment and miscalculate by conducting ever more coercive actions against Taiwan. China may also see President Trump’s willingness to temporarily back down over US tariffs as an indication he will bluff during defence negotiations. The article also explores Chinese military modernisation milestones and their expanding range and scale of exercises around Taiwan and the East China and South China Seas. The piece concludes with the words of Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command: “[China’s] aggressive manoeuvres around Taiwan right now are not exercises... they are rehearsals.”
UNITED KINGDOM
In the light of BBC Panorama allegations of UK Special Forces war crimes and a widely circulated article by a former SAS commanding officer in The Spectator, the CHACR’s examination of lessons from The Brereton Inquiry into the Australian Defence Force Special Operations Command in Afghanistan is worth revisiting. The article, based on Professor David Whetham’s annex to the inquiry, discusses how a combination of factors led to a normalisation over time of behaviours that should never have been considered normal. The allegations and insinuations of the Panorama programme, regardless of what may have been fact and what may have been speculation and supposition, will no doubt continue to trouble the Army, and the SF community in particular, for some time yet. Far from specific to military teams, the lessons on human team dynamic can apply to many organisations.
EUROPE
Ahead of the June NATO Summit in Rym Momtaz is clear the event is an opportunity for the European allies to lay stronger and fairer foundations for the Alliance (beyond reliance on US capabilities) and hail a “landmark moment of strength”. This theme of independent European defence is also addressed by an IISS article that explores the financial costs and defence industrial requirements for NATO-Europe to defend against a future Russian threat, without the United States. It assesses that to replace US conventional capabilities assigned to the Euro-Atlantic theatre, European states would need to invest, taking into consideration one-off procurement costs and assuming a 25-year lifecycle, approximately $1 trillion and require radical approaches to defence investment and spending levels.
However, Dr. Sidharth Kaushal’s webinar Generating and Employing Mass on the 21st Century Battlefield addressed the important issue of “dissimilar rearmament:, how new technologies may fit into, and be employed, within existing armed forces structures. He cautioned not to overstate the advantages of new capabilities and that some systems may simplify one aspect while merely shifting complexity elsewhere, such as to the operator.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace writes that the May presidential election in Romania demonstrates what happens when long-festering democratic dysfunction is met by determined foreign manipulation. The country’s experience may offer insight into the political future of other democracies where deep disenfranchisement, anti-western narratives and mistrust of democracy provided ammunition for Moscow to regain regional influence and for the political elites to retain unchecked power and privilege. It concludes: “People might complain about politics and say that they’re sick and tired of it, but it is precisely politics, the exercise of leadership, delegation of power, representation and engagement with the voters that can fix the broken connection between leaders and society.”
Determined manipulation by Russia is also demonstrated in the highly detailed French government VIGINUM report. Reflecting on it, the European Policy Centre assessed the industrial scale and technological evolution of Storm-1516, a full-spectrum Russian influence operation designed to corrode trust and reshape public sentiment across Europe and North America, concluding that threats such as these are best understood as attacks on democratic governance and the connective tissue between state and society.
Meanwhile, whilst the situation appears to be more stable in Kosovo, the country continues to face significant obstacles on its path to EU membership despite the EU easing sanctions on the condition of sustained de-escalation of violence in the north. Sadly, the situation in Serbia does not bode well for normalisation talks as President Vučić fights for his political survival. Worryingly, Carnegie Europe’s article highlights that, with Europe beset by pressing challenges, the stability of the Western Balkans could be collateral damage.
UKRAINE
A contributor to The British Army Review, writing on lessons from the war in Ukraine, shrewdly identifies that the most important lessons in conflict are often the most uncomfortable. The article concludes that throughout history manoeuvre has rarely proved decisive whilst also identifying a ‘cult of manoeuvre’ in Western strategic culture that risks misidentifying future war. The feature, borne from extensive research, also highlights the centrality of protection (over manoeuvre) and the operational benefit of rapid technological adaptation of cost effective platforms at scale. Meanwhile, analysis by the Institute for the Study of War showed May to have had the highest number of Russian UAV and missile strikes against Ukraine in 2025.
The RUSI paper History is a Strategic Necessity for Negotiations with Russia highlights three useful tools for diplomats and policymakers. Firstly, understanding Russia’s weaponised historical narrative; secondly, learning from analogies and precedents; and finally, contextualising i.e., the failure of the Budapest Memorandum to protect Ukraine helps explain President Zelensky’s insistence on obtaining security guarantees. In addition, The Economist provides a fascinating insight into Russia’s hyperactive defence industry using open source intelligence including satellite imagery, Strava running apps, traffic density data, and increased housing rental costs to highlight Putin’s secret mechanisms to avoid Western sanctions and maintain the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.
USA
In 10 charts, the Financial Times maps the first 100 days of Trump’s second term, concluding that in areas such as inflation, public approval, government and immigration, “the turmoil emanating from the most powerful politician on the planet has stupefied markets and shaken one of the world’s biggest bureaucracies”.
Charlie Edwards, IISS’ Senior Advisor for Strategy and National Security, argues that Trump’s advisers have a rare chance to restructure America’s intelligence community to confront Beijing. In his Senate confirmation hearing, CIA Director John Ratcliffe was clear: China presents a “once-in-a-generation challenge”. Agency turf wars and congressional funding lines remain obstacles, as does scepticism from career professionals wary that sweeping reforms might hollow out institutional expertise. However, Edwards concludes that success hinges on whether President Trump can combine top-down change with the preservation of institutional trust and agility.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
As Israel ramps up its military operations in Gaza, Chatham House highlights the discontinuity with an increasingly vocal US administration and Arab states about ending the Gaza conflict. In the context of a UN Food and Agriculture Organisation report that less than five per cent of Gaza’s land can be cultivated due to war damage and access restrictions, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s reluctance to end the conflict stems from domestic considerations that a policy shift towards peace risks toppling his government. As the article outlines, Gulf leaders’ access to Trump creates a multilateral pressure point that Netanyahu cannot easily dismiss, particularly given Trump’s lifting of sanctions against Syria despite Netanyahu’s reported objections
Across the Gulf region, The Economist reports that Saudi Arabia is pulling off an astonishing transformation. Coupled with dramatic social change, a key component of Muhammad bin Salman’s new domestic contract with his people, the country is now described as ‘a stabilising influence in the Middle East’ and enjoys a constructive role in world politics. However, the article concludes that low oil prices and concerns over a lack of diversity and resilience in the economy may ultimately impact domestic goodwill and provoke a government crackdown, reversing recent progress.
AFRICA
M23 and the Democratic Republic of Congo announced a temporary ceasefire during talks in Qatar in late April, bringing hope for an end to the violence but, as this RUSI article highlights, the conflict is being fuelled by political and military interference by Uganda and Burundi, whilst Kigali’s role in providing military support to the insurgency in increasingly evident. More systemically, competition between Chinese critical mineral dominance, EU Mineral Trade agreements and the nascent US-DRC minerals-for-security deal demonstrate that “global asymmetries will mean that DRC’s minerals will continue to fuel violence”.
On 15 May Egypt cut transit fees through the Suez Canal by 15 per cent in a bid to increase revenue. Egypt’s revenues dropped from $2.4 billion to $880.9 million at the end of 2024 following shipping attacks by the Yemen-based Houthi group. The move to cut transit fees followed a halt to US bombing of Houthi targets and ceasefire on 6 May. The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ podcast assessed President Trump’s claims of Houthi capitulation to US demands in the context of ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Moreover, The Soufan Center suggests additional factors, such as the financial and operational costs of a US air campaign that saw seven downed US drones and two lost fighter jets to no discernible strategic gain, and growing international criticism of civilian casualties, leave questions unanswered.