© MARCUS FRANKEN/GP
© GP/PETER CATON
image A LOCAL BENGALI WOMAN PLANTS A MANGROVE (SUNDARI) SAPLING ON SAGAR ISLAND IN THE ECOLOGICALLY SENSITIVE SUNDERBANS RIVER DELTA REGION, IN WEST BENGAL. THOUSANDS OF LOCAL PEOPLE WILL JOIN THE MANGROVE PLANTING INITIATIVE LED BY PROFESSOR SUGATA HAZRA FROM JADAVAPUR UNIVERSITY, WHICH WILL HELP TO PROTECT THE COAST FROM EROSION AND WILL ALSO PROVIDE NUTRIENTS FOR FISH AND CAPTURE CARBON IN THEIR EXTENSIVE ROOT SYSTEMS. image FEMALE WORKER CLEANING A SOLAR OVEN AT A COLLEGE IN TILONIA, RAJASTHAN, INDIA.
India’s car fleet is projected to grow by a factor of 16 from 2000 to 2050. Presently characterised by small cars (70%), this will stay the same up to 2050. Although India will remain a low price car market, the key to efficiency lies in electrified powertrains (hybrid, plug-in and battery electric). Biofuels will take over 6% and electricity 22% of total transport energy demand. Stringent energy efficiency measures will help limit growth of transport energy demand by 2050 to about a factor of 5.5 compared to 2005.
Taking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario is shown in Figure 6.93. Compared to the Reference Scenario, overall demand will be reduced by about 40% in 2050. Around half of this will be covered by renewable energy sources.
figure 6.92: india: transport under the two scenarios
figure 6.93: india: development of primary energy consumption under the two scenarios
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
18,000
100,000
16,000
90,000
14,000
80,000 70,000
12,000
60,000
10,000
50,000
8,000
40,000
6,000
30,000
4,000
20,000
2,000
10,000
PJ/a 0
PJ/a 0 REF E[R] 2005
•• •• ••
REF E[R] 2010
REF E[R] 2020
REF E[R] 2030
REF E[R] 2040
REF E[R] 2050
REF E[R] 2005
•• •• ••
‘EFFICIENCY’ HYDROGEN ELECTRICITY BIO FUELS NATURAL GAS OIL PRODUCTS
india: development of CO2 emissions While CO2 emissions in India will increase under the Reference Scenario by a factor of 5.4 up to 2050, and are thus far removed from a sustainable development path, under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario they will increase from the current 1,074 million tonnes in 2005 to reach a peak of 1,820 m/t in 2030. After that they will decrease to 1,660 m/t in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will increase to 1.3 tonnes/capita in 2030 and fall again to 1.0 t/capita in 2050. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing electricity demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. After 2030, efficiency gains and the increased use of renewables in all sectors will soften the still increasing CO2 emissions in transport, the power sector and industry. Although its share is decreasing, the power sector will remain the largest source of emissions in India, contributing 50% of the total in 2050, followed by transport.
REF E[R] 2010
REF E[R] 2020
REF E[R] 2030
•• •• •
‘EFFICIENCY’ OCEAN ENERGY GEOTHERMAL SOLAR BIOMASS WIND
REF E[R] 2040
REF E[R] 2050
HYDRO NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL COAL NUCLEAR
figure 6.94: india: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Mil t/a 0 E[R] 2005
•• •
E[R] 2010
E[R] 2020
E[R] 2030
E[R] 2040
E[R] 2050
SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES TRANSPORT OTHER SECTORS
••
6
INDIA - TRANSPORT - CONSUMPTION - CO 2 EMISSIONS
india: primary energy consumption
key results |
india: transport
INDUSTRY PUBLIC ELECTRICITY & CHP
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