Welcome to the Ceres Research Farming Update ‘plus’. A publication that takes a deep dive into some of the topics covered in the Ceres Rural Farming Updates. To discuss any of the information in this publication, please contact one of the Team.
HISTORICALTRENDS VERSESNOW
In the latest Farming Update released in April 2025, there was significant discussion around rainfall and temperature variations, compared with previous years. Of relevance now, is the Spring season. March saw very little rain compared to previous years. If we look at England as a whole, total rainfall in March was 84% lower than this time last year, and 76% lower than the 25-year average (Figure 1).
The relationship between rainfall and sunshine hours is not always straightforward. However, in correlation with the low rainfall we have seen this year, there has been relatively high sunshine hours (Figure 2); particularly in March and where the lowest rainfall amount was recorded this year.
Conversely to the total rainfall in the first three months of this year, temperatures have remained lower in comparison to last year until April (Figure 3). The graph in particular highlights the slower trend of warming temperatures in the 25-year average as we approach spring. In contrast, this year shows a significant increase in temperature each consecutive month. This data really illustrates the effect of climate change on rising temperatures overall, and also through the season.
Global Wildfire Information Systems recorded that the area of the UK burnt by wildfires in 2025 is already higher than the total for any year in more than a decade. Wildfires are very common in the UK in early spring, with dead or dormant vegetation at the end of Winter which dries out, acting as a fuel for wildfires (BBC Climate & Data teams, 2025).
Whilst relative trends over time do paint a picture of the overall impact of climate change on our potentially shifting seasons, it is important to look at the data showing how variable the months can be from year to year. For example, Figure 4 shows the mean temperatures for the first four months of the calendar year, for the last six years. Compared to 2019, January and February months are cooler now than they were before, but there has been much variation year-on-year, sometimes up to 72%.
There are likely two main reasons for the dry spring. Firstly, as Haslinger and Mayer (2022) explain, there is an East Atlantic/Western Russia surface air pressure pattern which affects the jet stream, storm tracks and moisture transport across Europe. This oscillating pattern can change from time to time, promoting the deficit of precipitation in some cases. The evidence over multiple decades suggest that these air pressure patterns have a multidecadal variability (i.e. a ten-year pattern). This drives the reduced precipitation patterns, which we have seen in the spring this year. Secondly, whilst these natural warming and reduced precipitation patterns do occur, global warming from enhanced greenhouse gas emissions are an additional and significant force of the more recent dry periods.
DRYSPRINGS:YIELDS
Whilst it is sometimes plausible that dry springs cause crops to dig deeper with their roots to try and find water and nutrients, overall, yields are negatively impacted at harvest. This is particularly prevalent this year with the wet autumn we had (and generally have now) as crops do not establish strong root systems early on in their development.
Over the last 15 years, there have been two particularly dry springs that have caused challenges at harvest; 2011 (total rainfall in England of 721mm) and 2019 (total rainfall in England of 825mm). In 2011, wheat yield losses to the industry averaged between 1-2t/ha, costing UK growers around £40 million. In 2019, a notably wet autumn was followed by one of the driest and sunniest springs on record. This resulted in a 38% decrease in winter wheat production, with yields dropping by 20% compared to the year before (UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, MetOffice).
DRYSPRINGS:COULDWESEEMORE?
With the recent dry March, could it be possible that on average we will begin to see drier springs? For many, this brought a good opportunity earlier in the year to get out onto the field and drill spring crops. However, the prolonged period of dryness then brought challenges regarding nitrogen fertiliser applications and uptake by the crops (that being limited uptake of course) which means that crops are struggling to get going and look very hungry.
Whilst there is no certainty of dry springs every year moving forwards in response to climate change, we will likely see another very dry spring with an unpredictable nature. To remain productive during adverse weather conditions, there are generally two main approaches. First, there are the reactive strategies (i.e. responding to the weather as it comes) and then there are the proactive or predictive strategies (i.e. responding to future in-field challenges). Predictive strategies are generally those that take longer to implement but have a longer-term benefit. In contrast, the reactive strategies may not necessarily lead to longer-term benefits because they are implemented as a direct result of the weather experienced at that time. There is a balance and sometimes a trade-off to be had between reactive and predictive strategies, given the increasingly unpredictable weather patterns in the UK.
DRYSPRINGS:
PRODUCTIVITYCONSIDERATIONS
To maintain as much soil moisture as possible during a dry early start to the year, consider availability of mulches for example, such as wood chip or straw. Mulching is a water conservation practice applied in arid land areas to preserve soil moisture and minimise water evaporation from the soil surface. This is particularly useful on light, sandy soils which lose moisture quickly (El-Beltagi et al., 2022). Mulches can also help keep the soil cool. Although with the cooler temperatures, particularly overnight in early to mid-March, this hasn’t been much of a problem.
Mulching helps to retain moisture through minimising soil deterioration and enhancing organic matter. Increasing the organic matter of soils will improve water infiltration and the storage capacity of water in the soil, benefiting crop growth in future dry spells. Conversely, if wet weather is then experienced, the improved capacity of the soil to hold water will mean that fields are less likely to saturate as quickly and become waterlogged. Additionally, soluble nutrients (for example nitrogen, potassium, calcium, magnesium and fulvic acids) are released as organic matter decomposes, improving the availability of nutrients for crop uptake (Demo and Bogale, 2024). Dependent on type, some mulches can also reduce soil pH, also improving nutrient availability. This is particularly useful in dry periods when fertiliser has not been taken up by the crop. This proactive approach of applying mulches with the intention to improve soil organic matter and water retention and availability, may be a useful measure to mitigate against either wet or dry conditions in the future.
If irrigation is to be used in the spring, a practice that Ceres clients are adopting where possible this year, improving the efficiency of its use is important. For example, scheduling irrigation in cooler parts of the day. This can minimise evaporation and thereby maximising your field and economic use of irrigation.
One of the more predictive strategies includes reviewing drought-tolerant crop varieties. Whilst March and April were not considered a drought per se, droughts and dry weather are becoming more frequent, and so it is beneficial to keep up to date with the performance of new varieties, should they be available to you. If we take wheat as an example, the AHDB’s 2025/26 Recommended List (RL) is a useful resource for thinking about future crop varieties to plant. Whilst the list doesn’t explicitly rate wheat varieties for drought tolerance, certain varieties exhibit traits –such as strong rooting systems and consistent performance across variable conditions – that can contribute to better resilience under drought stress. Below are some new milling and feed wheat varieties from the latest RL that may offer improved drought tolerance:
KWS Vibe – shown good resistance to yellow rust, slightly higher protein content suggesting reduced stress from disease and climate pressures
RGT Hexton – shown adaptability to various soil types and a consistent performance suggests a robust root system and resilience under variable moisture conditions.
The early dry spring has offered some early respite from disease pressure such as septoria and mildew, but there isn’t time (or money) to become complacent. Plus, the resistance seen in the North of England to yellow rust is beginning to extend further south, with some clients seeing the resistance in Champion and Typhoon wheat varieties. Ceres Rural agronomists are keeping a close eye on what is being seen in the field, to make sure they remain quickly adaptable to ever-changing conditions. Always have your plan B in place to respond to the weather and therefore changes in disease pressures too. Additionally, if you are beginning to irrigate with the little rain that is in the forecast, be sure to follow up with T1 and T2 plans to make sure that any quick increase in water availability doesn’t allow septoria to take hold of the crop.
INTERNATIONAL INSIGHTS
Across Europe, there are a variety of different climates. However, we can look to other countries whose conditions are becoming increasingly similar to those emerging in the UK for insights. For instance, Northern France tends to experience slightly warmer and drier springs than the UK, while Northern Germany is also seeing a trend towards drier spring seasons. We can therefore look for insight and guidance into agricultural practices applied in these regions to better respond to our own changing weather patterns.
A recent paper by Blanchy et al., (2023) meta-analysed more than 3,000 individual scientific studies and synthesised evidenced-based practices of water conservation in European agriculture. The synthesis demonstrated that organic soil amendments and the adoption of agricultural practices that maintain ‘continuous living cover’ both in terms of geographical space and time, benefit soils in terms of water regulation functions. The authors of the paper identified that the reasoning was due to the additional carbon inputs into the soil which stimulated soil biological processes. This stimulation of soil biology was said to relate to improved soil aggregation and enhance bio-porosity of the soil, which reduced water run-off and increased water infiltration to deeper depths in the soil. Whether soil biology influences soil physics (aggregation) or vice versa is debatable (Kögel-Knabner et al., 2006), but there are suggestions that increased soil microbial activity can increase soil aggregate stability due to microbial exudates (i.e. sticky excretions) produced by microbes. Additionally, large fungal networks help to bind and hold soil particles together, increasing the stability of soil aggregates (and therefore its ability to hold water).
A long-term study by Lampurlanés et al., (2016) compared various tillage systems on soil water conservation and crop yield in Mediterranean rainfed conditions. They found that no till and min-till systems led to higher soil water content and improved water storage efficiency compared to conventional tillage. This was explained to be the result of improved soil structure with stable aggregates that can hold more water (because of not being broken up by tillage systems). Moreover, the crop residues left on the soil surface protected the soil from direct sunlight and wind, reducing evaporation and trapping more moisture in the soil.
Whilst in the UK, a recent study by Reading University has shown evidence that cover crops may increase soil adaptability to climate change / extreme weather events (in both dry and wet scenarios) (Adekanmbi et al., 2025). In their study which included a cereal rotation from 2017-2021 of winter wheat, winter barley, winter oats and winter wheat and cover crops of buckwheat, berseem clover, oil radish and sunflower, cover crops increased soil microbial community adaptation to wet and dry cycles. This was because of the increased soil organic carbon which was mobilised by the microbial community and made available for plant uptake, upon rewetting. In other words, cover crops enhanced soil microbial community adaptation to drought and mitigated warming effects, maintaining the productivity of the microbial community through adverse weather. Maintaining soil biological levels during dry weather is crucial for maintaining soil health and crop productivity. This is because the microbial community help to retain soil structure and water. Moreover, they are critical for mobilising nutrients for root uptake, particularly in limited moisture conditions. This mechanism plays a key role in helping crops bounce back after a dry spell.
To conclude, there are lots of opportunities that can arise from understanding research and agricultural practices from regions with similar emerging conditions to the UK, which may help to mitigate the impacts of changing weather patterns on crop production and increase farm resilience.
WHATHAS&HASN’T WORKEDFORYOU
At Ceres Research, we aim to foster greater collaboration and deliver diverse and representative industry insights, so we are keen to hear from you. We invite readers of the Farming Update Plus to share their experiences and insights on what worked and what didn't work on your farm during the early dryness this spring. This will be invaluable in shaping future strategies and recommendations for resilient agricultural practices for our membership community.
REFERENCES
1.UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. From Drought to Flood - 2010 to 2012 | UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
2.Demo and Bogale, 2024. Frontiers | Enhancing crop yield and conserving soil moisture through mulching practices in dryland agriculture
3.Blanchy et al., 2023. SOIL - Soil and crop management practices and the water regulation functions of soils: a qualitative synthesis of meta-analyses relevant to European agriculture
4.Kögel-Knabner et al., 2006. Biological and physicochemical processes and control of soil organic matter stabilization and turnover - Kögel‐Knabner - 2006European Journal of Soil Science - Wiley Online Library
5.Haslinger and Mayer, 2022. Early spring droughts in Central Europe: Indications for atmospheric and oceanic drivers - Haslinger - 2023 - Atmospheric Science Letters - Wiley Online Library
6.Lampurlanés et al., (2016). Long-term analysis of soil water conservation and crop yield under different tillage systems in Mediterranean rainfed conditionsScienceDirect
7.Adekanmbi et al., 2025. Legacy of Warming and Cover Crops on the Response of Soil Microbial Function to Repeated Drying and Rewetting Cycles
8.BBC Climate & Data teams, 2025. Wildfires: UK burnt area for 2025 already beats annual record - BBC News
9.El-Beltagi et al., 2022. Mulching as a Sustainable Water and Soil Saving Practice in Agriculture: A Review
GETIN
TOUCH
If you would like to discuss any of the topics covered in this issue of the Farming Update Plus, do contact the project leader, Dr Dannielle Roche at Ceres Research, via the details below.
