Crossing Bridges: Democratization in the Middle East and a Christian Democratic Approach

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K_\ gi`eZ`gc\ f] k_\ ¥I\jgfej`Y`c`kp kf gifk\Zk¦ nXj X[fgk\[ Yp k_\ LE `e J\gk\dY\i )'',% K_\ LJ# kf^\k_\i n`k_ >i\Xk 9i`kX`e Xe[ gfc`k`ZXccp jlggfik\[ Yp Xdfe^ fk_\ij k_\ ;lkZ_ ^fm\ied\ek# lj\[ k_\ kffc f] d`c`kXip `ek\im\ek`fe kf `emX[\ @iXh `e )''*% 8k ¯ijk k_`j `emXj`fe nXj c\^`k`d`q\[ Yp i\]\ii`e^ kf JX[[Xd ?ljj\`e¨j gfjj\jj`fe f] n\Xgfej f] dXjj [\jkilZk`fe% CXk\i fe# Xi^ld\ekj j_`]k\[ kfnXi[j k_\ k\ii`Yc\ j`kl$ Xk`fe `e n_`Z_ k_\ @iXh` g\fgc\ c`m\[ le[\i ?ljj\`e¨j [`ZkXkfi`Xc i\^`d\ Xe[ k_\ ^fXc f] [\dfZiXZp gifdfk`fe j`eZ\ `k Y\ZXd\ Zc\Xi k_Xk k_\i\ n\i\ ef n\Xgfej f] dXjj [\jkilZk`fe % Cffb`e^ Xk k_\ Zi`k\i`X f] k_\ §i\jgfej`Y`c`kp kf gifk\Zk¨ gXiX[`^d# k_\ [\YXk\ fe @iXh `j ]fZljj\[ efn fe k_\ hl\jk`fe f] n_\k_\i `e[\\[ k_\i\ nXj ¥cXi^\$ jZXc\ cfjj f] _ldXe i`^_kj¦# Xcc fk_\i efe$m`fc\ek `ejkild\ekj n\i\ \o_Xljk\[# Xe[ k_\ `emXj`fe nXj X gifgfik`feXc Xejn\i kf k_\ j`klXk`fe% @e Xep ZXj\# k_\ g\i`f[ X]k\i k_\ `emXj`fe `e @iXh Zc\Xicp le[\ijZfi\j fli YXj`Z jkXik$ `e^ gf`ek k_Xk Yl`c[`e^ X [\dfZiXZp `j X cfe^ Xe[ Zfdgc`ZXk\[ gifZ\jj k_Xk `j m\ip [`]¯Zlck kf `dgfj\ ]ifd k_\ flkj`[\% Gi\]\iXYcp# [\dfZiXk`qXk`fe j_flc[ Zfd\ ]ifd n`k_`e% Fecp k_\e n`cc `k Y\ jlggfik\[ Yp k_\ g\fgc\% Fe\ f] k_\ gifYc\dj n`k_ @iXh `j k_Xk k_\ N\jk\ie gfn\ij `emfcm\[ g\i_Xgj [`[ efk _Xm\ jl]¯Z`\ek Zfii\Zk `e]fidX$ k`fe XYflk k_\ [\^i\\ f] gfglcXi jlggfik ]fi k_\`i `ek\im\ek`fe% @] n\ kXb\ X cffb Xk k_\ 8iXY Zfleki`\j n\ Xi\ jkl[p`e^# fecp `e Jl[Xe `j k_\i\ i\]\i$ \eZ\ kf cXi^\$jZXc\ §\k_e`Z Zc\Xej`e^¨% @e k_\ fk_\i 8iXY jkXk\j# Xck_fl^_ g\fgc\ [f jl]]\i Xe[ jfd\k`d\j \m\e [`\ ]ifd k_\ Xlk_fi`kXi`Xe i\^`d\j k_Xk m`fcXk\ _ldXe i`^_kj# cXi^\$jZXc\ cfjj f] c`]\ fi cXi^\$jZXc\ \k_e`Z Zc\Xej`e^ [f\j efk fZZli% Jf k_\i\ Xi\ ef ^ifle[j ]fi lj`e^ k_\ \okiXfi[`eXip `ejkild\ek f] d`c`kXip `ek\im\ek`fe k_\i\% 9\j`[\j# efe$d`c`kXip d\Xej kf gifdfk\ [\dfZiXZp `e 8iXY Zfleki`\j Xi\ ]Xi ]ifd \o_Xljk\[% K_\ ZfeZclj`fe kf n_`Z_ k_`j Xcc c\X[j `j k_Xk fe\$j`[\[ d`c`kXip `ek\im\e$ k`fe Xj X d\Xej kf gifdfk\ [\dfZiXZp `e k_\ D`[[c\ <Xjk `j Xk k_`j dfd\ek e\`k_\i c\^`k`dXk\ efi [\j`iXYc\% N\ j_flc[ X[d`k k_Xk k_\i\ `j ef n`[\jgi\X[ gi\gXi\[e\jj n`k_`e k_\ LE kf `ek\im\e\ n_\i\ k_`j d`^_k Y\ aljk`¯\[% Lec\jj i\hl\jkj ]ifd k_\ c\^Xc ^fm\ied\ek f] 9fje`X$?\iq\^fm`eX [li`e^ k_\ \k_e`Z Zc\Xej`e^ f] k_\ (00'j# k_\ <L d\dY\i jkXk\j [`[ efk Zfd\ kf `kj i\jZl\% K_\ LJ jkfgg\[ k_fj\ nXij `e X cXk\ jkX^\% InXe[X Xe[ 9lile[` Xi\ fk_\i \oXdgc\j f] k_\ i\clZkXeZ\ kf `ek\im\e\ fe k`d\% @e Yfk_ ZXj\j k_\ k\id §^\efZ`[\¨ nXj Xmf`[\[ Y\ZXlj\ k_\ LE :_Xik\ij [\dXe[ `ek\im\ek`fe `] ^\efZ`[\ `j ]fle[% K_\ d`c`kXip `ek\im\ek`fe `e 8]^_Xe`jkXe `j X jg\Z`Xc ZXj\% K_\ jfm\i\`^ekp f] 8]^_Xe`jkXe `j i\jg\Zk\[% K_\ 8]^_Xe jkXk\ Xe[ jfZ`\kp Xi\ Xjj`jk\[ `e k_\`i jfZ`f$ \Zfefd`Z Xe[ gfc`k`ZXc [\m\cfgd\ek% @k `j efk gli\cp _ldXe`kXi`Xe Ylk Xcjf X ]fid f] [\]\eZ\ X^X`ejk k_\ KXc`YXe% K_\ KXc`YXe ]leZk`fe\[ Xj _fjk ]fi k_\ k\iifi`jk kiX`e`e^ ZXdgj% K_\j\ gifm\[ kf Y\ X j\i`flj [Xe^\i gi`dXi`cp ]fi k_\ LJ Ylk Xcjf ]fi <lifg\#

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Xj nXj j\\e `e k_\ 0&(( XkkXZbj Xe[ k_\ Zil\c k\iifi`jk XZk`fej `e j\m\iXc <lifg\Xe jkXk\j% -%)%) ;`gcfdXZp Xe[ [\dfZiXZp gifdfk`fe kffc K_\i\ Xi\ j\m\iXc kffcj ]fi gifdfk`e^ [\dfZiXZp k_Xk Xi\ Xcc dXeX^\[ `e k_\ Xi\eX f] `ek\ieXk`feXc i\cXk`fej% K_\j\ Xi\ gfc`k`ZXc [`Xcf^l\ Xe[ e\^fk`Xk`fej# le`cXk\iXc [\ZcXiXk`fe# Xe[ e\^Xk`m\ Xe[ gfj`k`m\ Zfe[`k`feXc`kp% Gfc`k`ZXc [`Xcf^l\ Xe[ e\^fk`X$ k`fej ^`m\ iffd ]fi Xi^l`e^ Xe[ YXi^X`e`e^ gifZ\jj\j k_Xk ZXe c\X[ kf jfZ`Xc c\Xie`e^ fi kf k_\ dXe`glcXk`fe f] k_\ jkXk\¨j Zfjk$Y\e\¯k ZXcZlcXk`fej k_ifl^_ gifd`j\j Xe[ k_i\Xkj% @e [\ZcXiXk`fej# k_\ [\dfZiXZp gifdfk\i ZXe mf`Z\ _`j fg`e`fe fe k_\ [f$ d\jk`Z j`klXk`fe# `eZcl[`e^ fg\e giX`j\ Xe[ Zi`k`Z`jd% ;fe\ glYc`Zcp# k_`j §eXd`e^ Xe[ j_Xd`e^¨ ZXe Zi\Xk\ i\glkXk`fe Zfjkj k_Xk ]leZk`fe Xj Xe \ok\ieXc e\^Xk`m\ `eZ\ek`m\% :fe[`k`feXc`kp ZXe X]]\Zk X jkXk\¨j Zfjk$Y\e\¯k ZXcZlcXk`fe `e Yfk_ Xek`Z`gXk`fe X]k\i gifd`j\j fi k_i\Xkj Xi\ X[mXeZ\[ Xe[ `e `kj XZklXc Xggc`ZXk`fe n_\e i\nXi[j Xi\ ^iXek\[ fi jXeZk`fej `dgfj\[% K_\j\ `ejkild\ekj mXip `e k_\ [\^i\\ k_Xk k_\ i\^`d\j Xi\ `eZcl[\[ Xe[ Xcjf `e k_\ [\^i\\ k_Xk k_\ \]]\Zkj f] k_\ `ejkild\ekj [`jkliY [fd\jk`Z gfn\i i\cXk`fej j\\ KXYc\ * % KXYc\ *1 ;\dfZiXk`Z Kffcj ]fi ;\dfZiXZp Gifdfk`fe Influence mechanisms

low

External Incentives

Political dialogue and negotiations Influence through persuation & social learning Influence through bargaining (including threats ans promises)

high

Disturbance of domestic balance of power

Social Learning

Influence through rewards (i.e. the application of positive conditionality – can be linked to foreign assistance) Influence through declarations (naming & shaming) Influence through sactions (i.e. the application of negative conditionality)

Inclusion of Regime interactive mode

unilateral mode

JfliZ\1 JkX_c Xe[ ?ácc\e )''.1 ?Xm`e^ cffb\[ Xk k_\ <L¨j Zlii\ek gfc`Zp :_Xgk\i * Xe[ k_\ ZXj\ f] <^pgk :_Xgk\i + # `k `j Zc\Xi k_Xk k_\ <L¨j dX`e `ejkild\ekj Xi\ gfc`k`ZXc [`Xcf^l\ Xe[ e\^fk`Xk`fej% 8cjf `e k_\ XjjfZ`Xk`fe X^i\\d\ekj k_Xk k_\ <L Zcfj\[ n`k_ e\Xicp Xcc Zfleki`\j f] k_\ 9XiZ\cfeX GifZ\jj# X gXike\ij_`g XggifXZ_ `j Z\ekiXc% @e ZXj\j f] i\^i\jj`fe `e [\$ dfZiXk`qXk`fe# jlZ_ Xj [li`e^ k_\ gXjk knf p\Xij `e Afi[Xe Xe[ DfifZZf# k_\ <L [`[ efk dXb\ glYc`Z [\ZcXiXk`fej ZXcc`e^ lgfe k_\j\ i\^`d\j kf i\jg\Zk _ldXe i`^_kj% @e k_\ Afi[Xe`Xe ZXj\ jlZ_ X ZXcc nflc[ _Xid k_\ @jiX\c`$Afi[Xe g\XZ\ X^i\\d\ek% K_\

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<L _Xj Xcjf efk [\efleZ\[ k_\ aX`c`e^ f] DlYXiXb¨j gfc`k`ZXc fggfe\ekj `e <^pgk `e \`k_\i k_\ ZXj\ f] 8pdXe Efli k_\ LJ [`[ [\efleZ\ k_`j fi `e fk_\i ZXj\j% K_\ <L e\m\i lj\[ k_\ XmX`cXYc\ ZcXlj\ kf jljg\e[ X`[ Xe[ kiX[\ `e ZXj\ f] _ldXe i`^_k m`fcXk`fej [\jg`k\ k_\ ]XZk k_Xk k_\p n\i\ m`fcXk\[ j\m\iXc k`d\j Yp [`]]\i\ek i\^`d\j# _\eZ\ `k [f\je¨k Xggcp e\^Xk`m\ jXeZk`fe`e^% Fm\i k_\ gXjk ]\n p\Xij# k_\ <L _Xj ki`\[ kf lj\ gfj`k`m\ Zfe[`k`feXc`kp kf jk`dlcXk\ [\dfZiXk`qXk`fe `e k_\ D`[[c\ <Xjk% ?fn\m\i# `e giXZk`Z\ k_`j [f\je¨k i\Xccp nfib Y\ZXlj\ f] k_\ cXZb f] Zfej\ejlj Y\kn\\e [`]]\i\ek d\dY\i jkXk\j% Jflk_\ie d\dY\i jkXk\j Xi\ X]iX`[ Yfk_ gfj`k`m\ Xe[ e\^Xk`m\ Zfe[`k`feXc`kp n`cc [XdX^\ k_\`i `ek\i\jkj% @k `j k_\i\]fi\ hl\jk`feXYc\ n_\k_\i k_\ [\^i\\ f] Zffg\iXk`fe le[\i k_\ <EG i\Xccp [\g\e[j fe Xe §fYa\Zk`m\cp¨ jkXk\[ gif^i\jj fi Xcjf fe k_\ gfc`k`ZXc n`cc f] k_\ e\`^_Yflij# \%^% i\]lj`e^ kf e\^fk`$ Xk\ 8Zk`fe GcXej `e k_\ ¯ijk gcXZ\ JkX_e Xe[ ?lcc\e# )''.1(/ % =`ijk# k_\ <L j_flc[ Zfej`[\i k_\ lj\ f] dfi\ Zfe]ifekXk`feXc `ejkild\ekj kf gif$ dfk\ [\dfZiXZp `e 8iXY Zfleki`\j% K_\ <L _Xj k_\ dfiXc fYc`^Xk`fe kf Xk c\Xjk [`jXg$ gifm\ f] k_\ m`fcXk`fe f] _ldXe i`^_kj `e \m\ip Zflekip Xe[ lj\ k_\ `ejkild\ek f] [\ZcXiXk`fej Xe[ fk_\i [`gcfdXk`Z `ejkild\ekj kf iX`j\ k_`j dXkk\i n`k_ k_\ i\^`d\j% J\Zfe[cp# `ejkild\ekj f] e\^Xk`m\ Xe[ gfj`k`m\ jXeZk`fe`e^ j_flc[ Y\ ]lik_\i [\$ m\cfg\[ Xe[ glk `ekf giXZk`Z\% K_\i\ j_flc[ Y\ X Zc\Xi m`\n `e n_Xk b`e[ f] Z`iZld$ jkXeZ\j e\^Xk`m\ Xe[ gfj`k`m\ jXeZk`fej Xi\ \]]\Zk`m\ Xe[ `e n_`Z_ Z`iZldjkXeZ\j efk % >`cc\jg`\ Xe[ N_`k\_\X[ )'') _Xm\ i\j\XiZ_\[ k_\ gfjj`Yc\ j`[\ \]]\Zkj f] e\^Xk`m\ jXeZk`fej Xe[ k_\ Zfe[`k`fej `e n_`Z_ jXeZk`fej £ Yfk_ gfj`k`m\ Xe[ e\^X$ k`m\ £ Xi\ gif[lZk`m\ fi Zflek\igif[lZk`m\% K_\ ¯ijk e\^Xk`m\ j`[\$\]]\Zk kf n_`Z_ >`cc\jg`\ Xe[ N_`k\_\X[ i\]\i `j k_Xk `e dXep ZXj\j fecp k_\ g\fgc\ fe k_\ jki\\kj Xe[ k_\ d`[[c\ ZcXjj n`cc jl]]\i# n_`c\ k_\ \c`k\j Xi\ i`Z_ \efl^_ efk kf Y\ Yfk_\i\[ Yp e\^Xk`m\ jXeZk`fej% 8efk_\i [Xe^\i `j k_\ [\m\cfgd\ek f] Xek`$N\jk\ie j\ek`$ d\ekj Xj X Zfej\hl\eZ\ f] X^^i\jj`m\ jXeZk`fe`e^% K_\j\ Xek`$N\jk\ie ]\\c`e^j ZXe [`d`e`j_ k_\ Xgg\Xc f] [\dfZiXZp gifdfk`fe `e k_\j\ Zfleki`\j Xe[ jk`dlcXk\ k_\ `dgc\d\ekXk`fe f] Zfjd\k`Z i\]fidj Yp k_\ Zlii\ek c\X[\ij `e fi[\i kf jXk`j]p k_\ [fefij% =lik_\i# k_\i\ Xi\ i`jbj k_Xk `ek\ieXk`feXc XZkfij n`cc \oZcl[\ k_\dj\cm\j ]ifd Xep `emfcm\d\ek `e k_\j\ Zflek`\j Xe[ n`cc fecp Y\ XYc\ kf nXkZ_ ]ifd k_\ j`[\c`e\% @e k_`j Zfek\ok >`cc\jg`\ Xe[ N_`k\_\X[ dXb\ X [`jk`eZk`fe Y\kn\\e knf g_Xj\j f] [\dfZiXZp gifdfk`fe% K_\ ¯ijk `j k_\ g_Xj\ Y\]fi\ [\dfZiXk`qXk`fe _Xj Y\^le# n_\e `k `j efk befne n_\e# fi \m\e n_\k_\i# `k n`cc Y\^`e# Xe[ n_\e fecp ¥jf]kcp# jf]kcp¦ cfn$b\p d\Xjli\j Xi\ gfjj`Yc\% K_\ j\Zfe[ `j k_\ g_Xj\ n_\e cfZXc [\m\cfgd\ekj _Xm\ gcXZ\[ [\dfZiXk`qXk`fe jhlXi\cp fe k_\ X^\e[X Xe[ k_\ <L ZXe dfm\ kf X _`^_\i ^\Xi% E\^Xk`m\ jXeZk`fe`e^ `j gifYXYcp dfjk \]]\Zk`m\ `e X j`klXk`fe n_\i\ k_\p gifm`[\ X §k`gg`e^ gf`ek¨ ]fi [\dfZiXk`Z Z_Xe^\# n_`c\ `e k_\ ¯ijk g_Xj\ X jf]k\i XggifXZ_ Xe[ gfj`k`m\ jXeZk`fe`e^ n`cc `e ^\e\iXc Y\ dfi\ \]]\Zk`m\ ?\\iX# )''.1)/ % ?\eZ\# k_\ <L j_flc[ Y\ m\ip XnXi\ f] k_\ g_Xj\ f] [\dfZiXk`qXk`fe `e

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n_`Z_ X Zflekip `j n_\e [\Z`[`e^ n_\k_\i jXeZk`fej Xi\ \]]\Zk`m\% @] k_\ <L [\Z`[\j kf lj\ jXeZk`fej `k `j `dgfikXek k_Xk k_\j\ XZk`fej kXi^\k k_\ i`^_k g\ijfej Xe[ Xi\ YXZb\[ Yp k_\ Zfdd`kd\ek f] Xcc <L d\dY\i jkXk\j% -%)%* =fi\`^e Xjj`jkXeZ\ ;\dfZiXZp Xjj`jkXeZ\ ZXe Yfk_ Y\ [`i\Zk\[ kfnXi[ Yfk_ jkXk\ Xe[ efe$jkXk\ XZkfij% K_\ `eZclj`fe f] k_\ i\^`d\ `e gfn\i `e k_\ gifdfk\i¨j X^\e[X j`^e`¯\j _\i\ k_\ \ok\ek kf n_`Z_ _\ fg\iXk\j n`k_ fi n`k_flk k_\ XggifmXc f] k_\ i\^`d\% :ffg\iXk`fe n`k_ jkXk\ XZkfij ZXe fecp _Xgg\e n`k_ ^fm\ied\ek XggifmXc% 9lk X[[i\jj`e^ efe$ jkXk\ XZkfij ZXe Y\ [fe\ n`k_ fi n`k_flk XggifmXc% @k [\g\e[j fe k_\ \ok\ieXc XZkfi¨j n`cc`e^e\jj Xe[ ZXgXZ`kp Xj kf n_\k_\i _\ n`cc ]fi\^f k_\ XggifmXc f] k_\ i\^`d\% K_`j ZXe iXe^\ ]ifd j`dgcp YpgXjj`e^ k_\ i\^`d\j n_`Z_ kfc\iXk\ k_\ XZk`fe kf nfib`e^ fg\ecp X^X`ejk k_\ [`jXggifmXc f] k_\ i\^`d\ k_Xk d`^_k kXb\ Zflek\id\Xj$ li\j % K_\ c\m\c f] [`jkliYXeZ\ k_Xk ZXe Y\ \og\Zk\[ f] k_\ d\Xjli\j `dgc\d\ek\[ [\g\e[j m\ip dlZ_ fe k_\ Z_f`Z\ f] k_\ jg\Z`¯Z XZkfij kXi^\k\[1 k_\ dfi\ gfc`k`ZXccp XZk`m\ Xe[ Zi`k`ZXc f] k_\ i\^`d\ XZkfij Xi\# k_\ dfi\ jlggfik ]fi k_\d d`^_k gfj\ X k_i\Xk kf k_\ i\^`d\% K_\ g\iZ\gk`fe f] k_i\Xk Xe[ c`b\c`_ff[ f] fg\e [`jXggifmXc f] YpgXjj`e^ [\dfZiXZp Xjj`jkXeZ\ Xi\ _`^_cp `ek\ii\cXk\[% KXYc\ +1 ;\dfZiXZp 8jj`jkXeZ\ Influence mechanism

low high

Disturbance of domestic balance of power

Capacity Building Primary targets: s State institutions s Gongos s Non political NGOs s Political active NGOs s Media s Political active NGOs s Political parties s Exclusively opposition parties

With approval

Primary targets: s State institutions s Gongos s Non political NGOs s Political active NGOs s Media s Political active NGOs s Political parties s Exclusively opposition parties

Primary targets: s State institutions s Gongos s Non political NGOs s Political active NGOs s Media s Political active NGOs s Political parties s Exclusively opposition parties

Without approval Against dispproval Inclusion of regime in choosing targets

interactive mode

unilateral mode

JfliZ\1 JkX_e Xe[ ?ácc\e )''.1 . =`ijk n\ n`cc cffb Xk ]fi\`^e Xjj`jkXeZ\ kXi^\k\[ Xk efe$jkXk\ XZkfij# j\Zfe[cp Xjj`jk$ XeZ\ [\j`^eXk\[ ]fi jkXk\ XZkfij% -%)%+ =fi\`^e Xjj`jkXeZ\ kXi^\k\[ Xk efe$jkXk\ XZkfij Jki\e^k_\e`e^ Z`m`c jfZ`\kp `j ]i\hl\ekcp f]]\i\[ Xj k_\ Xejn\i kf k_\ hl\jk`fe f] _fn Zfleki`\j `e k_\ D`[[c\ <Xjk ZXe [\dfZiXk`q\% N\jk\ie ^fm\ied\ekj \em`j`fe k_Xk# Yfcjk\i\[ Yp flkj`[\ Xjj`jkXeZ\# [\dfZiXk`ZXccp$d`e[\[# efe$gXik`jXe# g\XZ\]lc

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;Xe`j_ @ejk`klk\ ]fi @ek\ieXk`feXc Jkl[`\j# ;\dfZiXk`jXk`fe Xe[ J\Zli`kp `e k_\ D`[$ [c\ <Xjk1 :_Xcc\e^\j Xe[ Gfjj`Y`c`k`\j :fg\e_X^\e# )'', % ;\cXZfliX# BXk\i`eX# Gfc`k`ZXc GXik`\j Xe[ LJ ;\dfZiXZp Gifdfk`fe `e <^pgk# GXg\i gi\gXi\[ ]fi k_\ Nfibj_fg fe §>cfYXc`j`e^ GXikp 9Xj\[ ;\dfZiXZp¨# NXin`Zb Le`m\i$ j`kp .$/ Alcp )'', % ;XcXZfliX# BXk\i`eX# §@jcXd`jk k\iifi`jd Xe[ k_\ D`[[c\ <Xjk ;\dfZiXki`Z ;\¯Z`k1 Gfc`k`ZXc <oZclj`fe# I\gi\jj`fe Xe[ k_\ :Xlj\j f] <oki\d`jd¨# ;\dfZiXk`qXk`fe# mfc% (*# ei% *# gg% ,'/$,), Ale\ )''- % ;`ccdXe# 9iX[]fi[# §@ek\ieXk`feXc DXib\kj Xe[ GXik`Xc <Zfefd`Z I\]fidj `e Efik_ 8]i`ZX1 N_Xk @dgXZk fe ;\dfZiXk`qXk`fe6¨ ;\dfZiXk`qXk`fe# mfc% 0# ei% ( )'') % ;f :\l G`ekf# DXi`X# Gfc`k`ZXc @jcXd Xe[ k_\ Le`k\[ JkXk\j I\X[`e^# (000 % <_i\e]\c[# IXZ_\c Xe[ 8cpjjX 8% CXgg\e# K_\ Kilk_ XYflk k_\ Dljc`d 9ifk_\i_ff[# =ifekGX^\DX^Xq`e\%Zfd Ale\ (-# )''- % <cXqXi# ;Xe`\c# Al[X`jd Xe[ ;\dfZiXZp1 K_\ I\Xc`kp# nnn%aZXg%fi^&[a\&Xik`Zc\j)&al[$ [\dfZ%_kd% <cj\m`\i# K_\dXeldd\i @jcXd 8djk\i[Xd# )''- % <jgfj`kf# Af_e C% Xe[ Mfcc# Af_e# §@jcXd Xe[ ;\dfZiXZp¨ ?ldXe`k`\j Efm\dY\i&;\$ Z\dY\i )''( % <jgfj`kf# Af_e C% Xe[ ;Xc`X Df^X_\[# N_f Jg\Xbj ]fi @jcXd61 N_Xk X 9`cc`fe Dljc`dj I\Xccp K_`eb >Xcclg Gi\jj# DXiZ_ )''/ % <lifg\Xe Le`fe# 9\jk\dd`e^ <lifgX1 @dd`^iXk`\ \e `ek\^iXk`\ `e [\ <lifg\j\ Le`\ 9iljj\cj )'', % <lifg\Xe Le`fe# <^pgk1 :flekip JkiXk\^p GXg\i 9iljj\cj# AXelXip )''. % =i\ekfg# GXlc §<i `j `\kj d`j d\k [\ `jcXd¨ ?G&;\ K`a[ , FZkfY\i )'') % >Xcclg Fi^Xe`qXk`fe# Jg\Z`Xc I\gfik1 Dljc`d Nfic[ Gi`eZ\kfe# )''- % >XdY`cc# >Xip# §<ogcX`e`e^ k_\ 8iXY ;\dfZiXZp ;\¯Z`k¨ D`[[c\ <Xjk @ek\cc`^\eZ\ 9lc$ c\k`e# nnn%d\`Y%fi^&Xik`Zc\j&'*')Vd\%_kd =\YilXip&DXiZ_ )''* %

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>Xlj\# >i\^fip# §:Xe ;\dfZiXZp Jkfg K\iifi`jd6¨ =fi\`^e 8]]X`ij# mfc% /+# ei% ,# gg% -)$.- )'', % >\cm`e# AXd\j# K_\ Df[\ie D`[[c\ <Xjk1 8 ?`jkfip E\n Pfib# )'', % >`cc\jg`\# I`Z_Xi[ Xe[ N_`k\_\X[# CXli\eZ\# §<lifg\Xe [\dfZiXZp Gifdfk`fe `e Efik_ 8]i`ZX1 C`d`kj Xe[ Gifjg\Zkj¨# ;\dfZiXk`qXk`fe mfc% 0# ei% (# gg% (0)$)'- )'') % >`cc\jg`\# I`Z_Xi[# 8 Gfc`k`ZXc 8^\e[X ]fi I\^`fe 9l`c[`e^6 K_\ <DG Xe[ ;\dfZiXZp Gifdfk`fe `e Efik_ 8]i`ZX# @ejk`klk\ f] <lifg\Xe Jkl[`\j 9\ib\c\p# )''+ % >iXp# Af_e# 8c HX\[X Xe[ N_Xk `k D\Xej kf Y\ Df[\ie Cfe[fe# )''* % ?XdqXep# 8di Xe[ 9ifne# EXk_Xe# :Xe <^pgk¨j KiflYc\[ <c\Zk`fej Gif[lZ\ X Dfi\ ;\dfZiXk`Z =lkli\6 :Xie\^`\ Gfc`Zp Flkcffb ;\Z\dY\i )'', % ?XdqXnp# 8di# :_Xcc\e^\j Xe[ Gifjg\Zkj ]fi Gfc`k`ZXc C`Y\iXc`qXk`fe `e <^pgk# :Xie$ \^`\ <e[fnd\ek ]fi @ek\ieXk`feXc G\XZ\ )( 8gi`c )'', % ?Xii`j# C\\# :`m`c`qXk`fe Xe[ `kj <e\d`\j1 K_\ E\ok JkX^\ f] ?`jkfip E\n Pfib# )''+ % ?XjjXe# I`]¯k# §N\jk\e n\\k m\\c k\ n\`e`^ fm\i `jcXd¨ EI: ?Xe[\cjYcX[ ) DXp )''- % ?Xnk_fie\# 8dp# D`[[c\ <Xjk\ie ;\dfZiXZp1 @j :`m`c JfZ`\kp k_\ 8ejn\i6# :Xie\^`\ GXg\ij ++ DXiZ_ )''+ % ?\`idXe# DXib# Ffjk\ij\ [X^\e# 8iXY`jZ_\ eXZ_k\e 8ekn\ig# )'', % ?fjj\`e$QX[\_# @jdX\c# §K_\ Dljc`d Nfic[ Xe[ k_\ N\jk1 K_\ Iffkj f] :fe°`Zk¨# 8iXY Jkl[`\j HlXik\icp Jldd\i )'', % ?lek`e^kfe# JXdl\c G%# K_\ :cXj_ f] :`m`c`qXk`fej Xe[ k_\ I\dXb`e^ f] Nfic[ Fi[\i Cfe[fe# (00. % @YiX_`d# 8enXi# §Le`m\ijXc MXcl\j Xe[ Dljc`d ;\dfZiXZp¨# AflieXc f] ;\dfZiXZp# mfc% (.# ei% * Alcp )''- % @YiX_`d# JXX[ <[[`e# §I\m`m`e^ D`[[c\ <Xjk\ie C`Y\iXc`jd# AflieXc f] ;\dfZiXZp# mfc%(+# ei% (+ FZkfY\i )''* %

(),

:IFJJ@E> 9I@;><J

@e^c\_Xik# IfeXc[# K_\ Nfic[ M`\nj f] @jcXd`Z GlYc`Zj `e >cfYXc G\ijg\Zk`m\ D`Z_`$ ^Xe# )'', % @ek\ieXk`feXc :i`j`j >iflg# @jcXd`jd `e Efik_ 8]i`ZX @@1 <^pgk¨j Fggfikle`kp )''+ % @ek\ieXk`feXc :i`j`j >iflg# <^pgk¨j Dljc`d 9ifk_\ij1 :ife]ifekXk`fe fi @ek\^iXk`fe6# D`[[c\ <Xjk&Efik_ 8]i`ZX I\gfik Ef% .- Ale\ )''/ % @ek\ieXk`feXc :i`j`j >iflg# I\]fid`e^ <^pgk1 @e J\XiZ_ f] X JkiXk\^p FZkfY\i )'', % @ek\ieXk`feXc :i`j`j >iflg# Le[\ijkXe[`e^ @jcXd`jd DXiZ_ )'', % @ek\ieXk`feXc :i`j`j >iflg# @jiX\c&?`qYfccX_&C\YXefe1 8mf`[`e^ I\e\n\[ :fe°`Zk Efm\dY\i )''- % @jj\if]]# 8d`# §K_\ G\XZ\ GifZ\jj `j ;\X[# Cfe^ C`m\ k_\ G\XZ\ GifZ\jj¨# D`[<XjkN\Y# nnn%d`[\Xjkn\Y%fi^&fjcf]X`c\[%_kd (. AXelXip )''* % C\`b\e# IfY\ik Xe[ 9iffb\# Jk\m\# §K_\ Df[\iXk\ Dljc`d 9ifk_\i_ff[¨# =fi\`^e 8]$ ]X`ij DXiZ_&8gi`c )''. % Cfn# ;Xm`[# <ogXe[`e^ ;\dfZiXZp 8ifle[ k_\ Nfic[1 Gifjg\Zkj Xe[ :_Xcc\e^\j )''* % B\g\c# >`cc\j# K_\ NXi ]fi Dljc`d D`e[j1 @jcXd Xe[ k_\ N\jk ?XimXi[# )''+ % B\Xc# GXlc \[% # <k_`Zj Xe[ =fi\`^e Gfc`Zp :XeY\iiX# (00) % B`\ec\# <Y\i_Xi[# 8 >iXe[ ;\clj`fe1 ;\dfZiXZp Xe[ <Zfefd`Z I\]fid `e <^pgk Cfe$ [fe Xe[ E\n Pfib# )''' % @ek\ieXk`feXc :fdd`jj`fe fe @ek\im\ek`fe Xe[ JkXk\ Jfm\i\`^ekp# K_\ I\jgfej`Y`c`kp kf Gifk\Zk FkkfnX# ;\Z\dY\i )''( % AXej\e# Af_Xee\j A%>%# §;\ k\ii\li mXe [\ YiXe[\e[\ X]^lejk¨# @ek\ieXk`feXc\ Jg\ZkX$ kfi# gg% ,*,$*0 Efm\dY\i )''+ % CX^\e[`ab# Affjk Xe[ N`\ijdX AXe DXi`elj# Jkli\e Y`a [\ dfjc`dYli\e1 ?f\ <lifgX [\dfZiXk`\ bXe Y\mfi[\i\e )''. % C`ccX# DXib# K_\ Jk`ccYfie >f[1 I\c`^`fe# Gfc`k`Zj# Xe[ k_\ Df[\ie N\jk )''. %

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C\n`j# 9\ieXi[# §K_\ Iffkj f] Dljc`d IX^\¨# 8kcXek`Z Dfek_cp mfc% )--# gg% +.$-' J\gk\dY\i (00' % C\n`j# 9\ieXi[# K_\ :i`j`j f] @jcXd1 ?fcp NXi Xe[ Le_fcp K\iifi E\n Pfib# )''* % Cfi[ :ifd\i# Df[\ie <^pgk E\n Pfib# (0'/ % Clp\e[`ab# Afi`j# ?\k q`ae e\k d\ej\e 8djk\i[Xd# )''- % DXZife# DXip# 8iXY :feki`Ylk`fej kf :`m`c`qXk`fe NXj_`e^kfe# ;%:%# (00) % DXd[Xe`# DX_dff[# >ff[ Dljc`d# 9X[ Dljc`d E\n Pfib# )''+ % DXej¯\c[# <[nXi[ Xe[ Jep[\i# AXZb# <c\Zk`e^ kf =`^_k1 N_p <d\i^`e^ ;\dfZiXZ`\j >f kf NXi D@K Gi\jj# )'', % DZ:Xik_p# Aljk`e# K_\ GfglcXk`fe f] GXc\jk`e\1 GfglcXk`fe ?`jkfip Xe[ JkXk`jk`Zj f] k_\ CXk\ FkkfdXe G\i`f[ Xe[ k_\ DXe[Xk\ E\n Pfib# (00' % D\ie`jj`# =Xk`dX# @jcXd Xe[ ;\dfZiXZp1 =\Xi f] k_\ Df[\ie Nfic[ E\n Pfib# (00) % DfX[[\[# DXejffi \[% # MXcl\j Xe[ G\iZ\gk`fej f] k_\ @jcXd`Z Xe[ D`[[c\ <Xjk\ie GlYc`Zj E\n Pfib )''. % DfXq# 8j_\i# §:Xe Al[X`jd J\im\ Xj X JfliZ\ f] ?ldXe I`^_kj6¨# K\c 8m`m Le`m\ij`kp CXn =XZlckp GXg\ij )'', % Dfii`j# 9\eep# I`^_k\flj M`Zk`dj# X ?`jkfip f] k_\ Q`fe`jk$8iXY :fe°`Zk (//($(000 E\n Pfib )''' % Dlj_XiYXj_# PXjj`e# §N_Xk 8c$HX`[X I\Xccp NXekj¨# ;\i Jg`\^\c fe$c`e\ () 8l^ljk )'', % E8KF GXic`Xd\ekXip 8jj\dYcp# D\[`k\iXe\Xe Jg\Z`Xc >iflg# K_\ P\Xi f] <c\Zk`fej `e k_\ D`[[c\ <Xjk# 9iljj\cj# Alcp )''- % E\k_\icXe[j @ejk`klk\ ]fi Dlck`gXikp ;\dfZiXZp E@D; # Ef CXjk`e^ G\XZ\ Xe[ Gifj$ g\i`kp n`k_flk ;\dfZiXZp Xe[ ?ldXe I`^_kj1 ?Xie\jj`e^ ;\YXk\j fe k_\ <L¨j =lkli\ =`eXeZ`Xc @ejkild\ekj Alcp )'', % E\k_\icXe[j JZ`\ek`¯Z :fleZ`c ]fi >fm\ied\ek Gfc`Zp NII # ;peXd`jd `e @jcXd`Z 8Z$ k`m`jd1 I\]\i\eZ\ Gf`ekj ]fi ;\dfZiXk`qXk`fe Xe[ ?ldXe I`^_kj 8djk\i[Xd# )''- %

().

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E\`c# :cXib# §K_\ I\klie f] 8iXYfg_fY`X¨# K_\ >lXi[`Xe )' FZkfY\i )''* % FkkXnXp# DXi`eX# §<mXclXk`e^ D`[[c\ <Xjk I\]fid1 ?fn ;f N\ Befn N_\e @k @j J`^$ e`¯ZXek6¨# :Xie\^`\ GXg\ij =\YilXip )'', % Fl[_\lj[\e# AXe mXe# ;\ ^\jZ_`\[\e`j mXe _\k D`[[\e$Ffjk\e `e \\e efk\e[fg )'', % IXp# AXd\j C\\# §;f\j ;\dfZiXZp :Xlj\ G\XZ\6¨# 8eelXc I\m`\n f] Gfc`k`ZXc JZ`\eZ\# gg% ).$+- (00/ % I\j\XiZ_ @ejk`klk\ ]fi k_\ :;8# @em\jk`e^ `e @ek\^iXk`fe1 I\°\Zk`fej fe ;`m\ij`kp Xe[ :fddfeXc`kp K_\ ?X^l\# )''* % Ifjj# ;\ee`j# K_\ D`jj`e^ G\XZ\1 K_\ @ej`[\ Jkfip f] k_\ =`^_k ]fi D`[[c\ <Xjk G\XZ\¨ E\n Pfib# )''+ % Ifjj# D`Z_X\c# §;f\j F`c ?`e[\i ;\dfZiXZp6¨# Nfic[ Gfc`k`Zj ,*&*# gg% *),$-( 8gi`c )''( % Ifp# JXiX_ §N_p G\XZ\ =X`c\[1 8e Fjcf 8lkfgjp¨ :lii\ek ?`jkfip AXelXip )'') % G\n I\j\XiZ_ :\ek\i# K_\ >i\Xk ;`m`[\1 ?fn N\jk\ie\ij Xe[ Dljc`dj M`\n <XZ_ Fk_\i NXj_`e^kfe# ;%:%# )) Ale\ )''- % G\n I\j\XiZ_ :\ek\i# @jcXd`Z <oki\d`jd1 :fddfe :feZ\ie ]fi Dljc`d Xe[ N\jk\ie GlYc`Zj (+ Ale\ )'', % G`ag\ij# 8c]i\[# <\e e`\ln <lifg\\j \e^X^\d\ek `e _\k D`[[\e$Ffjk\e6 :c`e^\e$ [X\c# ;\e ?XX^ )'') % GBE# ?\k @jiX\c`jZ_$GXc\jk`aej$8iXY`jZ_ Zfe°`Zk# Y`a[iX^\ XXe d\e`e^jmfid`e^ `e [\ Gifk\jkXekj\ B\ib `e E\[\icXe[ FZkfY\i )''. % IXj_[Xe# DX_dfl[# §?`^_\i <[lZXk`fe# ;\m\cfgd\ek Xe[ ;\dfZiXZp `e k_\ 8iXY Nfic[¨# :J@; :fe]\i\ek`\ 8gi`c )'', % I`\]]\i# 9XiYXiX 8ee Xe[ D\iZ\i# Bi`jkXe# §LJ ;\dfZiXZp Gifdfk`fe1 K_\ :c`ekfe Xe[ 9lj_ 8[d`e`jkiXk`fej¨# >cfYXc JfZ`\kp# mfc% (0# ei% + )'', % JX`[# <[nXi[# :fm\i`e^ @jcXd1 ?fn k_\ D\[`X Xe[ k_\ <og\ikj ;\k\id`e\ ?fn N\ J\\ k_\ I\jk f] k_\ Nfic[ E\n Pfib# (00. %

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JX`[# <[nXi[ N%# Fi`\ekXc`jd E\n Pfib# (0./ % JX`bXc# 8d`e §K_\ D`[[c\ <Xjk1 ;\dfZiXZp Xe[ 8lk_fi`kXi`Xe`jd¨# jg\\Z_ fe @ek\i$ eXk`feXc :fe]\i\eZ\ ¥K_\ =lkli\ f] @jcXd# ;\dfZiXZp Xe[ 8lk_fi`kXi`Xe`jd `e k_\ Dljc`d Nfic[¦ AXbXikX# -$. ;\Z\dY\i )''+ % JZ_X\]\i# L[f# `e I\e\ ;\ibj\ \[% @jcXd1 [\ feY\^i\g\e i\c`^`\ ;\e ?XX^# (0// % J_XebcXe[# ;Xm`[# @jcXd Xe[ JfZ`\kp `e Klib\p (000 % JZ_X\gj# A\g \[% # Ffjk\ijZ_\ N\\c[\1 [\ Fi`Ôek `e N\jk\ij\ blejk C\`[\e# )'', % JZ_\]]\i# GXlc# 8Y\c ?\iqY\i^ C\q`e^ )''+ % J\e# 8dXikpX# §;\dfZiXZp Xj X Le`m\ijXc MXcl\¨# AflieXc f] ;\dfZiXZp# mfc% ('# ei% *# gg% *$(.# (000 % J_X[`[# N%8% Xe[ G% J% mXe Bfe`e^jm\c[# ;\ dpk_\ mXe _\k `jcXd`k`jZ_\ ^\mXXi1 ?`e[\ie`jj\e Y`a `ek\^iXk`\ BXdg\e# (00,# kn\\[\ [ilb % J_X_\\e# AXZb# I\\c 9X[ 8iXYj1 ?fn ?fccpnff[ M`c`¯\j X G\fgc\ Efik_Xdgkfe# )''( % J_XbdXe ?li[# <c`qXY\k_# J\ZlcXi`jd Xe[ ;\dfZiXZp `e k_\ D`[[c\ <Xjk# GXg\i Gi\gXi\[ ]fi k_\ :\ek\i ]fi Jkl[p f] @jcXd Xe[ ;\dfZiXZp# =flik_ 8eelXc :fe]\i\eZ\ (- DXp )''* % J_XiXebjp# EXkXe Xe[ ;\id\i# Ife# K_\ :Xj\ ]fi ;\dfZiXZp1 K_\ Gfn\i f] =i\\[fd kf Fm\iZfd\ KpiXeep Xe[ K\iifi E\n Pfib# )''+ % J_Xm`k# 8i`# §I\Xc`kp 9`k\j¨# ?X¨Xi\kq (' AXelXip )''* % Jd`k_# BXi\e Xe[ C`^_k# DXi^fk# \[j%# <k_`Zj Xe[ =fi\`^e Gfc`Zp :XdYi`[^\# )''( % Jfn\cc# K_fdXj# NXXifd _Xk\e `jcXd`jk\e _\k N\jk\e6# nnn%c`Y\ikXi`Xe%ec% JkX_e# 8e[i\Xj Xe[ ?ácc\e# M\iX mXe# ;`]]\i\ek 8Zkfij# ;`]]\i\ek Kffcj6 8ggifXZ_`e^ <L Xe[ LJ ;\dfZiXZp Gifdfk`fe `e k_\ D\[`k\iiXe\Xe Xe[ k_\ E\ncp @e[\g\e[\ek JkXk\j# GXg\i gi\gXi\[ ]fi k_\ <lifg\Xe Le`fe Jkl[`\j 8jjfZ`Xk`fe <LJ8 K\ek_ 9`\ee`Xc @ek\ieXk`feXc :fe]\i\eZ\ Dfeki\Xc# :XeX[X# (.$(0 DXp )''. % KXpcfi# :_Xic\j# 8 j\ZlcXi 8^\# :XdYi`[^\ Xe[ Cfe[fe )''. %

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K_\ <Zfefd`jk#§?fn >fm\ied\ekj _Xe[c\ k_\ e\nj¨ . =\YilXip )''/ % L[`eb# 9\kjp# 8ccX_ \e <mX 8djk\i[Xd# )''- % Le`k\[ EXk`fej# 8cc`XeZ\ f] :`m`c`qXk`fej# E\n Pfib# (* Efm\dY\i )''- % LE;G# 8iXY ?ldXe ;\m\cfgd\ek I\gfik1 :i\Xk`e^ Fggfikle`k`\j ]fi k_\ =lkli\ )'') E\n Pfib# )'') % LE;G# 8iXY ?ldXe ;\m\cfgd\ek I\gfik1 9l`c[`e^ X Befnc\[^\ JfZ`\kp )''* E\n Pfib# )''* % LE;G# 8iXY ?ldXe ;\m\cfgd\ek I\gfik1 KfnXi[j =i\\[fd `e k_\ 8iXY Nfic[ )''+ E\n Pfib# )''+ % LE;G# 8iXY ?ldXe ;\m\cfgd\ek I\gfik1 KfnXi[j k_\ I`j\ f] Nfd\e `e k_\ 8iXY Nfic[ )'', E\n Pfib# )'', % M\ijk\^\e# NpYi\e# §8c 8e[Xcf\j¨# Kifln () Efm\dY\i )'', % Mfcc# Af_e F%# @jcXd1 :fek`el`kp Xe[ :_Xe^\ `e k_\ Df[\ie Nfic[ JpiXZlj\# (00+ % N\k\ejZ_Xgg\c`ab\ IXX[ mffi _\k I\^\i`e^jY\c\`[# ;peXd`\b `e `jcXd`k`jZ_ XZk`m$ `jd\1 8Xebfg`e^jglek\e mffi [\dfZiXk`j\i`e^ \e d\ej\ei\Z_k\e ;\e ?XX^# )''- % N\p\i# IfY\ik mXe [\# ;\ @jcXd \e _\k N\jk\e 8Xikj\cXXi# )'') % Ni`^_k# CXni\eZ\# K_\ Cffd`e^ Kfn\ij1 8c$HX\[X Xe[ k_\ IfX[ kf 0&(( E\n Pfib# )''- % PXZflY`Xe# DfeX# Gifdfk`e^ D`[[c\ <Xjk ;\dfZiXZp1 <lifg\Xe @e`k`Xk`m\j NXj_`e^$ kfe# ;%:%# FZkfY\i )''+ % PXZflY`Xe# DfeX# Gifdfk`e^ D`[[c\ <Xjk ;\dfZiXZp @@1 8iXY @e`k`Xk`m\j NXj_`e^$ kfe# ;%:%# DXp )'', % P\¨fi# 9Xk# K_\ ;_`dd`1 A\nj Xe[ :_i`jk`Xej Le[\i @jcXd :iXeYlip# (0/, % Pfle^j# I`Z_Xi[# <lifg\¨j LeZ\ikX`e Glijl`k f] D`[[c\ <Xjk I\]fid# :Xie\i^`\ GXg\i Ef% +, Ale\ )''+ %

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