CHDC 2020 Central Highlands Economic Profile

Economic profile

Abbreviations

Throughout this profile a series of abbreviations has been utilised. These are summarised below:

ABS

CH

CHDC

CHRC

Central Queensland SA4

GRP

LGA

M2

QGSO

QLD

RTA

SA4

TRA

Australian Bureau of Statistics

Central Highlands

Central Highlands Development Corporation

Central Highlands Regional Council

Central Queensland Statistical Area Level 4

Gross Regional Product

Local Government Area

Square metres

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Queensland

Residential Tenancies Authority

Statistical Area Level 4

Tourism Research Australia

$ 1.03 bn Agribusiness total output (2018) compared to $839m (2017)

1,420 Agricultural businesses

1.301 m megalitres

Fairbairn Dam, second largest storage in Queensland

$ 576 m Value of beef production

$ 47 m

Value of sorghum production

$ 13 m

Value of wheat production

$ 194 m

Value of cotton production $ 73 m

Value of pulse production

$ 218.510 m

4 nights Average length of stay domestic overnight visitors

678,000 Average visitors

173,302 Annual passengers through Emerald airport 2019–20 FY

Largest gemfields in the Southern Hemisphere

4.1 % Unemployment rate (6.1% in QLD)

of Queensland’s table grape exports of Queensland’s mandarin exports

1.37 m Head of cattle Japan China S.Korea

Key export markets

28,701 Population

33 y.o. Median age vs QLD average of 37

16,796 Labour force

4,375

of the population live and work in the region

Top five

Key drivers in terms of regional exports, employment, value-added and local expenditure on goods and services are: Mining, livestock, grains & other agriculture, accommodation & food services, retail trade, education & training

COVID-19 Pandemic and the outlook for Central Highlands

The current COVID-19 pandemic is having wide ranging impacts on all facets of Australian life and resulting in a rapid transformation of the Australian economic environment. Businesses are experiencing unprecedented changes to trading conditions on a massive scale.

REMPLAN COVID-19 economic modelling undertaken in July 2020, focussed on the role of each industry in the local economy, as well as the overall implications of the social distancing, population movement and lockdown policies.

Baseline (pre-COVID-19) employment in the Central Highlands is estimated to be 17,019. Over the March 2020 to March 2021 forecast period losses peaked in May, with a reduction of 1,035 local jobs (-6.1%). By the end of the forecast period (March 2021), job numbers are not expected to achieve pre-COVID-19 levels, reaching 16,872, a -2.5% reduction on baseline employment. Although challenges are being felt in all sectors, the industries forecast to be most impacted in percentage of job loss are Arts & Recreation Services, Other Services and Rental Hiring and Real Estate Services. These sectors employ a combined total of 1,000 people being around 6% of the region’s workforce.

Mining and Agriculture support almost half (46%) of Central Highlands’ workforce. Due to the size of their workforce, these two industries are forecast to undergo the highest number of jobs lost over the forecast period.

Baseline employment COVID-19 impacted employment

Central Highland’s GRP is estimated to fall by -4.4%, down to $6.033 billion over the study period, a reduction of $275 million. By comparison, Queensland’s Gross State Product is forecast to contract by -7.0% to $343.611 billion.

The COVID-19 impacted estimate of GRP ($6.033 billion) is higher than the estimated GRP in 2018 which was $5.956 billion, therefore whilst the economy will undergo a contraction over the coming year, current modelling indicates the economy will continue to move in the right direction in terms of the economic growth experienced in recent years.

Regional snapshot

The Central Highlands is a robust region that sits at the heart of Queensland’s resources and agricultural sectors.

Spanning almost 60,000km2, the region includes a significant portion of Australia’s largest coal reserve, the Bowen Basin, and is strategically located to service Australia’s newest mining province, the Galilee Basin.

Sustained by irrigation sourced from water storage on the Nogoa and Comet Rivers, the Central Highlands is also characterised by thriving farming industries, including beef, cotton, grapes and citrus.

Major freight routes intersect the region, with the Capricorn Highway linking the coast to the outback and the Gregory Highway connecting northern Queensland and New South Wales.

Pristine natural attractions, such as Carnarvon Gorge and the Sapphire Gemfields, are driving an emerging tourism market.

A population of more than 28,000 with a median age of 33 helps to underpin the Central Highlands’ economic strength of a skilled, locally-based workforce.

Demographics

Population

28,701 +0.2% 30,133

Population

The estimated resident population in Central Highlands as at 30 June 2019 is 28,701 people. Between 2009 and 2019 the Central Highlands (estimated resident) population decreased by 13 people. Central Highlands population peaked at 29,782 in 2013 and began to experience a decline thereafter.

However, since 2017 the population has been increasing, with a 0.1% growth during 2018, and 0.2% growth during 2019.

Population projections

Queensland Government population projections, 2018 edition (medium series) were released in November 2018 and reviewed in March 2019.

Between 2016 and 2041, the population of Central Highlands is projected to increase by 1,350 people. This is equivalent to an annual average increase of 0.2% between 2016 and 2041.

Population projections by age cohort – Central Highlands

Population projections

Population growth in the Central Highlands is projected to gradually increase, then remain stable

65+ years

Age group projected to experience the largest increase in population from 2016 to 2041 (2,742 people)

Population projections by age cohort – Central Highlands

2016 2026 2036 2041

For each five year period from 2016 to 2041, the annual average population growth in the Central Highlands is projected to gradually increase then remain steady. The annual average population growth in Central Queensland SA4 (comprising the Banana, Central Highlands, Gladstone, Livingstone, Rockhampton and Woorabinda LGAs) and Queensland are projected to gradually decline.

Average annual population growth in the Central Highlands is estimated to be lower than the surrounding Central Queensland SA4 and broader Queensland projections.

Non-resident population

4,375 5.0%

Non-resident population

The non-resident population is expected to stabilise at 3,600 by 2022

The estimated non-resident population in Central Highlands as at 30 June 2019 is 4,375 people. The average annual non-resident population growth between 2009 and 2019 was 5.0% Estimated resident population Non-resident workers on shift

Non-resident population projections

Between 2016 and 2021, the non-resident population of Central Highlands is projected to increase by 380 people. When combined with the forecasted resident population growth, total full-time equivalent population growth in Central Highlands between 2016 and 2021 is projected to increase by 348 people (average annual growth of 0.2%).

Age

65–84 years old 33

Age

The following demographic section is based on Place of Usual Residence data obtained from the 2016 ABS Census, the latest data available. The 2016 ABS Census was held on 9 August 2016 and data from the 2016 Census was released from mid-2017.

Age distribution

Analysis of the age structure of the Central Highlands residents in 2016 compared to Queensland shows there is a larger proportion of residents aged less than 15 years (24.7%, compared to 19.4% in Queensland). The Central Highlands also comprises a higher proportion of 25 to 54 year olds than Queensland (45.5%, compared to 40.5%). Conversely, the proportion of retirees (those aged 65 years and over) in the Central Highlands (7.6%) is lower than Queensland (15.3%).

Change in age distribution, 2011 to 2016

Between 2011 and 2016, the Central Highlands’ population decreased by 713 people. The largest changes in age structure in this area between 2011 and 2016 were in the age groups:

• 35 to 49 (-473 persons)

• 15 to 19 (-330 persons), and

• 65 to 84 (+326 persons).

group has experienced the most growth from 2011 to 2016

Central Highlands comprises a younger population when compared to Queensland

4.0% Australia, NZ & England

There is a higher proportion of Aboriginal people in the Central Highlands compared to Queensland (3.2%)

Indigenous status

Analysis of the Indigenous status of Central Highlands’ residents in 2016 compared to Queensland shows that there is a higher proportion of Aboriginals in the Central Highlands (4.0%, compared to 3.2% in Queensland). Overall, the local Indigenous population accounts for 4.3% of the total Central Highlands’ population, which is slightly higher than Queensland (4.0%).

Country of birth

Top 3 countries of birth

Analysis of the country of birth of Central Highlands’ residents shows a higher proportion of residents born in Australia (76.0%, compared to 71.1% in Queensland). The top 10 countries of birth for Central Highlands’ residents include Australia, New Zealand, England, Philippines, South Africa, India, Zimbabwe, Papua New Guinea, United States of America, and Germany.

Origin

Population growth in the Central Highlands is being driven by arrivals from overseas, as well as other intrastate locations

Migration

56.2%

Of the population living in the Central Highlands, 15,749 (56.2%) also lived in the Central Highlands five years ago. The largest migration of residents to the Central Highlands over the five year period from 2011 to 2016 from outside of the LGA was from residents who had previously lived overseas (725 people, or 2.6% of total Central Highlands’ residents), followed by residents from Rockhampton (452 people, or 1.6% of total Central Highlands’ residents). The largest migration of residents to the Central Highlands from outside of Queensland was from Tweed in New South Wales (31 people, or 0.1% of total Central Highlands residents).

of the population lived in the Central Highlands five years ago

Wellbeing

Top 28% 2.6%

of the population have a need for assistance

Need for assistance

Least disadvantaged LGAs in Australia based on SEIFA Index of Disadvantage

Of the population living in the Central Highlands, 717 people (2.6%) have a need for assistance due to a profound disability, long term health condition or age. This is half the proportion of the population in Queensland with a need for assistance, reflective of a younger population profile in the Central Highlands.

Central Highlands Queensland

Has need for assistance with core activities

Does not have need for assistance with core activities

Not stated

SEIFA (Disadvantage)

Socio Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) is a suite of indexes that has been created by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) from social and economic Census information. Each index ranks geographic areas across Australia in terms of their relative socioeconomic advantage and disadvantage. This report presents information from the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage (IRSD), a general socio-economic index that summarises a range of information about the economic and social conditions of people and households within an area. This index includes measures of relative disadvantage only and is not evidence of relative advantage.

The SEIFA index of disadvantage for the Central Highlands (R) is 1,006. The local government area index of the Central Highlands (R):

• Ranks 393 out of 544 local government areas with SEIFA scores in Australia

• There are 151 local government areas which are less disadvantaged, and

• There are 392 local government areas that are more disadvantaged.

Wellbeing

Tieri The Gemfields / Willows

Of 60 suburbs and localities located within the Central Highlands with a resident population, the least disadvantaged suburb is Tieri (1,092) and the most disadvantaged suburb is The Gemfields (788) followed by Willows (828). SEIFA Disadvantage

31.0%

Central Highlands’ residents predominantly hold Certificate qualifications

Qualifications

Analysis of the qualifications of the population in the Central Highlands compared to Queensland shows 7.8% of Central Highlands’ residents with a Bachelor Degree or higher, compared to 14.7% in Queensland. A higher proportion of Central Highlands’ residents hold a Certificate qualification (18.8%) compared to Queensland (17.2%).

Overall, 31.0% of the population hold educational qualifications, and 57.0% hold no qualifications, compared with 38.9% and 52.4%, respectively for Queensland.

Central Highlands Queensland

Change in Qualifications, 2011 to 2016

The largest changes in the qualifications of the population of the Central Highlands between 2011 and 2016 are in those with:

• No qualifications (-1,363 persons)

• Graduate Diplomas and Graduate Certificates (+53 persons), and

• Postgraduate Degrees (+38 persons).

Income and families

23.0%

Weekly Individual Income

Analysis of individual income levels in the Central Highlands in 2016 compared to Queensland shows that the median weekly income is higher for local residents when compared to the broader State; $843 vs $660.

Overall, 23.1% of persons earn a low income (less than $400 per week) and 23.0% earn a high income ($1,500 or more per week), compared to 28.4% and 15.1%, respectively in Queensland.

Central Highlands Queensland

Family Composition

Central Highlands comprises a higher proportion of couple families with children (51.1%) when compared with Queensland (42.5%), and a lower proportion of couple families with no children (36.6%) compared with Queensland (39.4%).

Overall, 11.1% of families are one parent families, and 1.2% are other families, compared with 16.5% and 1.6%, respectively for Queensland.

Central Highlands Queensland

The Central Highlands comprises a higher proportion of couple families with children than the Queensland average

Dwelling tenure and structure

45.6%

of dwellings are owned outright or with a mortgage

Dwelling Tenure

Analysis of the housing tenure of dwellings in the Central Highlands in 2016 compared to dwellings in Queensland shows there is a larger proportion of rented dwellings or dwellings under other tenure types. This is reflective of the large non-resident workforce in the region, who are renting or living in various short term accommodation arrangements.

Overall, 45.6% of dwellings are owned outright or with a mortgage, 34.6% are being rented and 6.3% are other tenure types, compared to 58.6%, 31.3% and 2.0%, respectively in Queensland.

Dwelling Structure

As at 2016, there are 10,713 separate houses in the Central Highlands; 1,657 medium density dwellings, 6 high density dwellings, 938 caravans, cabins or houseboats; and 38 other dwellings.

There is a significantly higher proportion of ‘Caravan, cabin, houseboat’ dwellings in the Central Highlands (6.8%) compared to Queensland (2.1%). This can be attributed to the large number of non-residents staying in employer-provided accommodation while working in the region.

Central Highlands Queensland

Central Highlands Queensland

The Central Highlands comprises a higher proportion of dwelling being rented

compared

Employment

Largest number of employees within the Central Highlands workforce

The Agriculture, forestry & fishing sector experienced the largest increase in jobs from 2011 to 2016 (180)

The following graphs illustrate the profile of employed people whose place of work is located within the Central Highlands. This includes residents and non-residents.

Employment by industry

The total employment estimate for the Central Highlands as at the 2016 Census is 17,019 jobs. The ‘Mining’ sector comprises 6,079 jobs, followed by the ‘Agriculture, forestry & fishing’ sector (1,791 jobs) and the ‘Retail trade’ sector (1,184 jobs).

Change in jobs by industry sector, 2011 to 2016

Between the 2011 and 2016 Census periods, there was a net decrease of 2,239 jobs in the Central Highlands.

17,019 75.1%

Occupation

4.1%

Unemployment rate 2019

Unemployment rate

The Central Highlands workforce is dominated by Machinery Operators and Drivers and Technicians and Trades Workers

The unemployment rate in Central Highlands in 2019 was 4.1%. The rate of unemployment in Central Highlands consistently remains below Central Queensland (6.9% in 2019) and the State average (6.1%, 2019).

Central Highlands Central Queensland SA4 Queensland

Occupation

Compared to the Central Queensland SA4 and State averages, the Central Highlands has a higher proportion of ‘Machinery Operators and Drivers’ and ‘Technicians and Trades Workers’.

Age and qualifications

25–44 yrs 55.7%

Age

The workforce age profile for the Central Highlands shows a higher proportion of workers in the 25 to 44 year age group compared to the Central Queensland SA4 and State benchmarks.

Work in the Central Highlands

Work in Central Queensland SA4

Work in Queensland

Qualifications

Workers in the Central Highlands have a lower representation of graduate qualifications (Bachelor Degree and higher) when compared to the Central Queensland SA4 and State averages. A higher proportion of workers have Certificate or No Qualifications in comparison to these benchmark areas.

Work in the Central Highlands

Work in Central Queensland SA4

Work in Queensland

Central Highlands has a higher proportion of workers in the 25 to 44 year age group

of the workforce hold educational qualifications

Method of travel to work

65.8% 24.9%

Breakdown of the Central Highlands’ workforce

Of the 17,019 jobs in Central Highlands, 12,787 workers (75.1%) also live in the region. Approximately 24.9% of workers (4,232 workers) in Central Highlands live outside of the region. This is significantly higher than the Central Queensland SA4 (12.8%) and is indicative of the large proportion of non-resident workers in the region.

Central Highlands Central Queensland SA4

Method of travel to work

Over 98.7% of the Central Highlands’ workforce use the following methods to travel to work. Approximately 65.8% of workers travel by car (either as driver or passenger), 6.2% work from home and 5.6% of workers use the bus.

Industry

Output generated 59.9% $10.563 bn

Mining contributes 59.9% of total output in the Central Highlands

Output

Output data represents the gross revenue generated by businesses/organisations in each of the industry sectors in a defined region.

The output generated by the Central Highlands’ regional economy is estimated at $10.563 billion.

The Agribusiness Regional Snapshot (November 2019) identifies that the Central Highlands conservatively delivered approximately $1 billion in agricultural value (ACIL Allen based on ABS, 2017–18). Due to the problematic nature of data collected for agriculture in the region, CHDC commissions an annual comprehensive Agribusiness Regional Stocktake which provides accurate information on production and business data trends across key agricultural commodities for the Central Highlands, and is available from the CHDC website.

Value-added

$6.151 bn 72.9%

Total value-added Mining sector contributes 72.9% of total value-added for the Central Highlands

Value-added

Value-added data represents the marginal economic value that is added by each industry sector in a defined region.

Value-added can be calculated by subtracting local expenditure and expenditure on regional imports from the output generated by an industry sector, or alternatively, by adding the Wages & Salaries paid to local employees, the gross operating surplus and taxes on products and production.

Value-added by industry sector is the major element in the calculation of Gross Regional Product

The total value-added by the Central Highlands’ regional economy is estimated at $6.151 billion.

Local expenditure and regional exports

Local expenditure

Local Expenditure data represents the value of intermediate goods and services purchased by local industry sectors within the region. A high level of local expenditure on intermediate goods and services proportionate to total output is indicative of well-developed local supply chains and also that any expansion in this sector would typically deliver broad based benefits for the region’s economy.

The total local expenditure estimate for the Central Highlands is $1.450 billion.

Regional exports

Regional Exports data represents the value of goods and services exported outside of the region that have been generated by industry sectors within the region. The following graph depicts the contribution to total regional exports generated by each of the industry sectors ranked from highest to lowest.

The total regional export estimate for the Central Highlands is $7.742 billion.

Regional imports and key industries

Top 5 industries

Regional imports

Regional Imports data represents the value of goods and services imported into the Central Highlands by businesses/ organisations in each of the industry sectors. Another way of defining imports is as an outflow of money from the Central Highlands. The following graph depicts the contribution to total regional imports generated by each of the industry sectors ranked from highest to lowest.

The total regional imports estimate for the Central Highlands is $2.963 billion.

Key industries

Taking into consideration potential import replacement opportunities as well as current contributions to the regional economy in terms of employment, value-added and local expenditure on goods and services (backward linkages), key industry sectors have been identified. In order to understand the contributions of industry sectors in more detail, the general 19 industry sector classification has been broken down to the 45 industry sub-sector level. The following key industry sub-sectors have been identified as the key drivers of the Central Highlands region’s economy:

Key industries

63.8% 94.2%

Key industries contribute 63.8% of total jobs

Key industries contribute 94.2% of regional exports

Employment data refers to employed people whose place of work is located within the Central Highlands, which includes residents and non-residents. It is based on the ABS 2016 Census Place of Work data.

Employment

Employment is a key social outcome of economic development; employment data represents the number of people employed by businesses/ organisations in each of the industry sectors in the Central Highlands. The total employment estimate for the Central Highlands is 17,019 jobs. The key industries contribute 10,859 jobs or 63.8% of total jobs in the Central Highlands.

Livestock, Grains & Other Agriculture (1,662)

Mining (5,871)

Retail Trade (1,184)

Accommodation & Food Services (1,010)

Education & Training (1,132)

Other (6,160)

Source: REMPLAN (2020)

Regional Exports

Regional Exports represents the value of goods and services exported outside of the Central Highlands region that have been generated by local businesses/organisations. Another way of defining exports is as an inflow of money into the region.

The total regional export estimate for the region is $7.742 billion. The selected sectors contribute $7.296 billion (94.2%) of total regional exports.

Livestock, Grains & Other Agriculture ($453.646 million)

Mining ($6,727.982 million)

Retail Trade ($5.591 million)

Accommodation & Food Services ($69.445 million)

Education & Training ($39.565 million)

Other ($446.028 million)

Source: REMPLAN (2020)

Key industries

$989.306m 80.7%

Key industries contribute 80.7% of total value-added

Value-added

Local expenditure by key industries

The total value-added estimate for the Central Highlands is $6.151 billion. The selected sectors contribute $4.966 billion (80.7%) of total value-added.

Livestock, Grains & Other Agriculture ($236.766 million)

Mining ($4,461.618 million)

Retail Trade ($85.040 million)

Accommodation & Food Services ($68.680 million)

Education & Training ($113.720 million)

Other ($1,184.822 million)

Source: REMPLAN (2020)

Local expenditure

The following graph shows the value of intermediate goods and services purchased by industry sectors within the Central Highlands. The total local expenditure estimate for the Central Highlands is $1.450 billion. The selected sectors contribute $989.306 million (68.2%) of total local expenditure.

Livestock, Grains & Other Agriculture ($140.897 million)

Mining ($790.588 million)

Retail Trade ($18.654 million)

Accommodation & Food Services ($23.019 million)

Education & Training ($16.148 million)

Other ($460.962 million)

Source: REMPLAN (2020)

Summary indicators and gap analysis

$6.308 bn

The Central Highlands accounts for:

• 28.6% of Central Queensland SA4 and 1.7% of Queensland’s GRP

• 23.6% of Central Queensland SA4 and 1.4% of Queensland’s output

• 29.5% of Central Queensland SA4 and 1.8% of Queensland’s value-added

• 37.3% of Central Queensland SA4 and 6.3% of Queensland’s regional exports

• 24.7% of Central Queensland SA4 and 2.8% of Queensland’s regional imports.

Import Replacement Opportunities

Imports reflect demand in the area’s economy for goods and services not supplied locally and therefore represent ‘Gaps’ in local supply chains. Imports from the rest of Australia may indicate opportunities for import replacement, increased value-adding and supply chain development. Supply of these goods and services is currently feasible in the Australian context and may provide a guide to realistic, high value strategic opportunities to further develop the local economy. The total replacement of imports with local production is improbable however it may be possible to capture a proportion of this escape expenditure.

Total imports by industry sectors in the Central Highlands from the rest of Australia are estimated at $2.693 billion.

Mining, Ag & Construction

Source: REMPLAN (2020)

Domestic imports – demand (from rest of Australia)

Top 3 import replacement opportunities

Gap analysis

$349.620m $265.199m

Exploration & Mining Support Services imports from the ‘rest of Australia’

External Industry Sectors Supplying to the Region

In order to identify potential gaps within the region, REMPLAN data has been applied at the 45 industry sector level. The local industry sectors import a total of $2.690 billion of goods and services from the rest of Australia, conversely industry sectors in the rest of Australia supply $2.690 billion of goods and services to the local industries as part of the process of production.

Financial & Insurance Services imports from the ‘rest of Australia’

What are

the selected local demand sector(s) importing from rest of Australia? ($m)

Major projects

The 2019 Development Register profiles $9.7bn of projects in the pipeline in the region

$7.792 bn

$80.557 bn

Based on available information, there is currently $9.7 billion in known major project investment currently underway or planned for short term development in Central Highlands.

Mining and energy projects account for $9.2 billion of known projects, while water and sewerage account for $192 million.

Moreover, known projects of significance that are located outside of the Central Highlands Region that will still have substantial economic benefits to the region approximate $70.9 billion.

Source: CHDC (2019)

Housing

Building approvals

$50.6 m

Number of dwelling approvals

There were 35 new dwelling approvals in 2018–19, an increase of 13 dwellings over the previous 12 months, comprising 35 houses and no “other” (unit) dwellings. Dwelling approvals peaked in 2012–13 at 422 approvals. Since then the volume of approvals have experienced a significant decrease caused by trends in global mineral prices that affected the economy of Central Highlands. Over the 10 year period from 2008–09 to 2018–19, separate house approvals have accounted for approximately 70% of total dwelling approvals. The highest levels of unit approvals occurred in 2011–12 and 2012–13, representing almost half of total approvals for those years.

Houses Other

Value of building approvals

The total value of building approvals during 2018–19 is $50.6 million. The value of residential building approvals peaked in 2012–13 at $116.7 million. The value of ‘non-residential’ approvals has generally accounted for approximately 49.5% of the value of total building approvals.

Residential lot approvals

901

Lots were approved between 2009–2019

Between 2009 and 2019 the highest number of annual approvals occurred in 2012 at 226, with 81% of the lot approvals being in larger projects of more than 50 lots. The housing market has slowed since 2015 in Central Highlands resulting in no new lot approvals between 2016 and 2018. However one development approval single lot occurred in the year to December 2019.

Lot registrations

Lot registrations is the final stage of development of new lots. There is generally a time lag between lots being approved and lots being registered. While the volume of lot registrations has significantly declined since 2014. The total number of registrations in Central Highlands increased over 2019.

a Lots on a standard format plan intended for detached dwellings, including lots intended for detached dwellings in a community title scheme. b Lots on a building format plan or standard format plan that represent attached dwellings within a community title scheme.

Source: QGSO (2020)

Urban lots (60m2 to <2,500m2) have consistently accounted for the majority of standard residential lot registrations from 2009 to 2019.

New lot sales and median price

New lot sales

There were a total of 18 new lot sales in the year to December 2019 within Central Highlands, 3 of which were house and land package lots. Vacant land sales totalled 15 in the year to December 2019, and traditionally account for the majority of new lot sales within the region.

Vacant land House & land package

Median price

The median sales price of vacant land has been decreasing since 2015, however the price of vacant land per square metre increased from $88 in 2017 to $104 in 2019.

a May include resales of vacant land. Excludes intermediate vacant land transactions relating to developer house and land package sales.

b Includes lots as a component of a developer house and land package in addition to subdivided lots containing an existing dwelling.

Dwelling sales and median price

315

Dwelling sales

There were a total of 315 new and established detached and attached dwelling sales in the year to December 2019 within Central Highlands, of which 89% were detached house sales. Detached housing sales have accounted for the majority of dwelling sales activity within the region, accounting for approximately 88% of all dwelling sales over the last five years.

Detached houses

Units and townhouses

Median price

Both the detached and attached dwelling markets fell in 2017 to median sales prices of $160,000 and $139,900, respectively. Since 2017, both markets have undergone some recovery.

The median sales price for detached dwellings increased to $255,000 in 2019, the highest median price since prior to 2012.

Source: QGSO (2020)

Source: QGSO (2020)

Median weekly rent

Regional data has been sourced from the Queensland Residential Tenancies Authority for median rental data from the June Quarter 2015 to December Quarter 2019 for:

• Units/Flats – two and three bedroom

• Houses – three and four bedroom, and

• Townhouses – three bedroom.

After a period of decline, median rents in the Central Highlands started to steadily increase from December 2017.

Visitor economy

Output

65.3%

Accommodation & food services sector contribution to total tourism related output

Tourism is not identified as a separate industry sector in the National Accounts data, instead tourism is an amalgam of activities across various industry sectors such as retail, accommodation, cafés & restaurants, and cultural & recreational services. The Tourism Module in REMPLAN estimates the total value of tourism for the local economy.

Tourism output

The estimated output generated by tourism for each industry sector has been deducted and consolidated into a separate tourism sector. The Central Highlands’ total output estimate is $10.564 billion, with Tourism contributing $218.510 million.

Output (with separate Tourism sector)

Output attributable to tourism

Tourism output has been estimated to be $218.510 million. The following graph shows the gross revenue generated by businesses and organisations in the Central Highlands to service demand generated by tourists to the area.

1,097 75.3%

Tourism related employment Accommodation & food services sector contributes 75.3% to total tourism related employment

Tourism employment

The employment generated to service demand from visitors for each industry sector has been estimated through applying industry profiles from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Tourism Satellite Account and consolidated into a separate tourism sector. Tourism is estimated to account for 1,097 jobs (6.5%) of the total 17,019 jobs in the Central Highlands.

Employment (with separate Tourism sector)

Employment attributable to tourism

The total tourism related employment estimate for the Central Highlands is 1,097 jobs. The following graph shows the number of jobs in each industry sector in the region which service demand generated by tourists to the area.

Distribution of tourist dollar and visitor profile

4 nights 678,000

Distribution of tourist dollar

For each dollar spent by a tourist in the Central Highlands, it is estimated that typically $0.65 is spent on ‘Accommodation & Food Services’, $0.09 is spent on ‘Transport, Postal & Warehousing’, and $0.06 is spent on ‘Retail Trade’.

Visitor profile

The visitor profile provides data for the Central Highlands for a four year average to 2018.

Average length of stay

The following data has been sourced from Tourism Research Australia, Local Government Area Profile, 2018 for Central Highlands. Within Central Highlands, the average length of stay for international visitors is 22 nights, while the average length of stay of domestic overnight visitors is 4 nights. Domestic overnight visitors spend an average of $445 per trip and $103 per night, compared to $874 and $39, respectively for international visitors.

Emerald Airport

173,302 ↓15%

Passengers through the airport

2019–20

Passengers

Decrease in passenger numbers due to COVID-19

Passengers through Emerald Airport have typically peaked in the June/July period

Over the past ten years, passenger numbers recorded through the Emerald Airport have averaged 224,340. In 2018–19 the passengers totalled 204,073, this has fallen to 173,302 in 2019–20. The 15% fall in passenger number in the later half of 2019–20 was due to COVID-19 Pandemic and the subsequent impact on air travel.

Prior to the impact of COVID-19 passenger numbers through the airport had been decreasing from a peak in 2012–13 of 310,640.

Emerald Airport – Annual Passengers

Source: CHRC (2020)

Trends

Business activity

3,291 78 38.8%

Businesses registered 2019

Business activity

Registered businesses are in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector

As at June 2019, there are 3,291 businesses operating in the Central Highlands. The largest number of registered businesses are in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector (1,277), followed by ‘Construction’ (398).

New registered businesses

2017–2019

Change in businesses, 2017 to 2019

Between 2017 and 2019, the number of registered businesses in Central Highlands has increased by 42 businesses. The ‘Administrative and Support Services’ sector experienced the largest increase in business numbers from 2017 to 2019 (25). The ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector experienced the largest decline in business numbers (-7), followed by the ‘Transport, Postal and Warehousing’ sector (-5).

Business activity

Owner/operator businesses account for the highest proportion of registered businesses in the Central Highlands

Workforce size

$200,000 – $2m

Businesses with a turnover of $200,000 to less than $2 million account for the highest proportion of Central Highlands’ registered businesses

Between 2017 and 2019, the largest rate of change occurred for businesses that employ 20 to 199 staff, increasing 40% from 38 in 2017 to 53 businesses in 2019. Businesses which do not employ any staff (i.e. owner/operator) account for the highest proportion (63.1%) of Central Highlands registered businesses.

2017 2018 2019

Turnover

From 2017 to 2019, the largest increase in the number of businesses by turnover was for businesses turning over between $200,000 and $2 million, increasing from 1,329 in 2017 to 1,369 in 2019, an increase of 3.0%. The largest proportion of businesses by turnover is businesses turning over $200,000 to less than $2 million, accounting for 41.6% of Central Highlands businesses in 2019. The $50,000 to less than $200,000 range accounts for the second highest proportion of businesses (30.3%).

Business registrations

↑2.2% ↑4.2%

Business registrations by industry

Business registrations by workforce size and turnover

Source: ABS (2020d)

4.1% 641 people

Labour force

The estimated number of people employed in Central Highlands in 2019 is 16,114. Since 2010, the labour force has decreased by 899 people; the number of employed people has decreased by 1,081. However between 2018 and 2019 the number of employed increased by 676 people, the number of unemployed fell by 35, and the labour force increased by 641 people.

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business (2020)

Annual Employment Change

The annual change in the number of people employed within Central Highlands peaked recently between 2018 and 2019 with a growth of 676 people employed. This is the largest increase for at least ten years. The number of people employed in the Central Highlands is estimated at 16,114.

Agribusiness Regional Stocktake Baseline Data To Drive Growth

November 2019 – update

This report presents a snapshot of the Central Highland’s agribusiness sector, showcases the opportunities in the Central Highlands and can inform future analysis and policy development.

The Central Highlands delivers approximately $1 billion in agricultural value (ACIL Allen based on ABS, 2017-18). Cattle grazing is the largest agricultural activity generating $576 million. Cotton is another key driver of value which has had a strong year in 2017-18 ($194 million). According to official data, the value of production of wheat and sorghum is $59 million while pulses (chickpeas) have an economic value of $73 million. The region also boasts a thriving table grape sector ($17 million). Changes over the last three financial years are summarised in Table 1 on page 5.

The region continues to perform strongly in agricultural production regardless of a dryer than usual climate in recent times. Declaration of drought in 2019 will likely see significant changes in the 2020 update.

The Central Highlands Accelerate Agribusiness Strategic Advisory Group (CHAA) identified five key pillars that underpin their agribusiness development strategy:

• Production Excellence

• Connected, Competitive Supply Chains

• Revered Regional Brands

• Ready for Business

• Fearless Invention

The stocktake is constructed to explore the evidence base that underpins these five key pillars.

Production Excellence

The Central Highlands outperforms its peers in terms of agricultural area and agricultural GVP per capita. On the contrary, the region shows less strength in the measures of agribusiness per capita and diversification performance. Recently, the region has also outperformed its peers in terms of growth. According to ABS data cumulative annual growth rate on value per hectare of agricultural land has increased at a higher rate in the Central Highlands than in other comparable regions (refer Figure 1).

The Central Highlands are not the primary grain growing region for Queensland, however, the natural soil fertility and ideal climate for growing a variety of summer and winter crops provides producers with opportunities to diversify their enterprise mix in order to spread the risk of a highly variable climate. Producers utilise modern farming practices to maximise the return on investment of assets managed. Lower land prices relative to the Darling Downs presents a good value proposition for long term investors in the region.

Note: Increased value is driven by a combination of higher market prices and improved yields. From 2016–17, ABS data only includes data from businesses with an estimated value of agriculture operations of $40,000 and above. Prior years included all above $5,000. Non-ABS data on the value of citrus in the Central Highlands has been included in the calculations for 2015–16 and 2016–17 only. The value of citrus was derived as a proportion of total Queensland exports (90%).

Source: ACIL Allen based on Australian Bureau of Statistics

Figure 1 Value generated from a hectare of agricultural land – selected locations – growth per annum

Connected Competitive Supply Chains

In 2018 almost half of the inputs purchased by Central Highlands’ agribusinesses are sourced from inside the region (REMPLAN). The remainder are sourced from other regions around Australia and a small percentage comes from overseas. Most of these imports were of manufactured goods and professional and technical services, industries in which the Central Highlands is seeking to grow and improve capability.

Agricultural freight is predominantly moved by road as rail haulage is mostly composed of mining products with agriculture a secondary priority.

On 18 November 2018, Acting Prime Minister Michael McCormack announced that the Federal Government confirmed an investment of $2.9 million in the Yamala intermodal rail freight hub which will connect the rail and the Capricorn Highway and “provide better logistical options for the farmers of this district”.1

In 2019 the Central Highlands Regional Council and the State government invested heavily and the first stage of the Central Queensland Inland Port which includes the 1.5 km rail siding is nearly complete. This will support GrainCorp as the anchor tenant, and in turn encourage agriproduct movements by rail. The intermodal facility is yet to be progressed.These developments will open up direct transfer of freight from road to rail, and also support processing and value added industries.

Despite the region being a strong performer in several primary industries, a considerable amount of the processing of the output of these industries is done outside the region. The Central Highlands does have some upstream processing facilities such as cotton gins, packing facilities and grain storage and handling facilities where some initial processing of the grain is undertaken.

The Emerald saleyards are important to the Australian cattle markets. Besides serving the State and national markets, the region is an important primary exporter. ACIL Allen has estimated that the value of exports from the Central Highlands would have amounted to approximately $700 million in 201718. Cattle exports (mainly beef) explains 60 per cent of this figure. Japan, China and South Korea were the three top export markets for regional produce and explained almost half of the total sales (refer Figure 2).

Revered Regional Brands

A survey of members of the local community was conducted in mid-2018 (Central Highlands Development Corporation, 2018).2 The aim of this research was to assist in building the regional brand by developing and refining communication strategies, materials, activities so as to create a ‘revered regional brand’ (Central Highlands Development Corporation, 2018).

A total of 344 surveys were completed (143 online and 201 via telephone). The respondents were broadly categorised as ‘dedicated’ and ‘interested’ buyers. The respondents in the

1 The Hon Michael McCormack MP Deputy Prime Minister Minister for Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development Leader of The Nationals Federal Member for Riverina – Press conference with Ken O’Dowd MP, Member for Flynn, Emerald, 18 November 2018.

Figure 2 Central Highlands (R) – Exports in 2016–17 (E) by commodity (left) and by market (right) – in $ million

ACIL Allen based on Queensland Government Statician’s Office

‘dedicated’ group (n=108) were those most likely to already be buying local fresh food, whilst the ‘interested’ group (n=211) were willing to purchase local fresh food but currently do so to a lesser degree than the ‘dedicated’ group (Central Highlands Development Corporation, 2018).

Overall, only 24 per cent of the Central Highlands fresh food buyers were aware of branding that told them that they were buying food grown in the Central Highlands – this increased to 36 per cent for those consumers segmented as ‘dedicated’ (refer Error! Reference source not found.) (Central Highlands Development Corporation, 2018). This is not dissimilar to the results from the workshop in 2017 where few brands (6) were mentioned three or more times and only two actually were mentioned more than three times. Further work needs to be done to improve awareness of local produce, awareness of local brands and where the community can purchase them through the development of a regional communication and marketing strategy aimed at creating an enduring revered brand.

Ready for Business

Agribusinesses are a key value and employment driver in the region. Seventy per cent of these businesses employ less than five employees and 40 per cent of them are owner-operator businesses. (ABS, 2016). These firms are benefitting from the region’s abundance of cropping land, robust water availability and high reliability, and low land prices.

The Central Highlands does well when compared to other similar regions in terms of the efficiency of the labour market, having solid economic fundamentals and human capital and has a good endowment of natural resources (refer Figure 3). However, it lags in terms of institutional foundations and business sophistication and dynamo.3

The region has approximately two million hectares of strategic cropping land (i.e. land with high agriculture potential). The region boasts one of the lowest average farm land rental prices in the country. The availability of irrigation, large endowment of strategic cropping land and low land prices has drawn the attention of several intensive horticulture businesses.

Under the Nogoa-Mackenzie Water Supply Scheme the region has 232 GL of allocated water and is supported by the Fairbairn Dam which is the second largest water storage in Queensland. The scheme is competitively priced in comparison to other regional schemes such as Burdekin, Bundaberg, Mareeba Dimbulah and St. George. In 2017/18, SunWater progressed Stage 2 and commenced Stage 3 works at the Fairbairn Dam Improvement Project (Total approved investment, Stages 1 and 2 – $120M). Stage 3 works are progressing and are scheduled for completion in late 2020, weather permitting. The Queensland government announced $2.5 million for local authority, Fairbairn Irrigation Network, to take over the operation of Emerald’s irrigation channels from Sunwater.4 This covers down-stream from Fairbairn Dam, including pump stations and 126 kilometres of channels, pipeline and weir infrastructure.

3 This analysis is based on the Regional Australia Institute [in]Sight indicator. For details please refer to the full Stocktake document.

4 The Hon Dr Anthony Lynham MP Natural Resources, Mines and Energy – Media statement 1 July 2019.

Figure 3 Central Highlands (R) – Comparative ranking on the [in]Sight Index

Central Highlands Moree Plains Western Downs Source: Regional Australia Institute, 2018

Fearless Invention

The Central Highlands shows a mixed picture in terms of invention/ innovation indicators. There have been several improvements since last year with an increase in patent and trademark applications. The region has fallen in terms of the per cent of R&D managers and the number of employees in knowledge intensive services. According to the ABS the region

does not have any registered research service providers. However, data provided by CHDC shows that the region has two of such facilities (CQ University and Emerald Grain Research and Development Corporation). Imports of Professional, Scientific & Technical Services remains important for the region.

Table 1 Update from the previous version of this report

* There may be double counting between cereals and pulses due to changes in ABS data categories between 2015-16 and 2016-17.

** Assuming 90% of Queensland exports of Mandarins are attributable to production in Central Highlands.

Note: All data is rounded.

Source: ACIL Allen based on Australian Bureau of Statistics

Bibliography

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2017) “Australian Census of Population and Housing 2016” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2020a) “Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2018–19, Cat. No. 3218.0” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2020b) “Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, Cat. No. 6291.0.55.001, Apr 2020” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2020c) “Building Approvals, Australia, April 2020, Cat. No. 8731.0” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2020d) “Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, June 2015 to Jun 2019, Cat. No. 8165.0” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Central Highlands Development Corporation (2019) “Development Register Central Highlands region, December 2019” Central Highlands Development Corporation, Emerald

Central Highlands Regional Council (2020) “Emerald Airport Traffic Data” Central Highlands Regional Council, Emerald

Department of Education, Skills and Employment (2020) “Small Area Labour Markets publication – December Quarter 2019” Australian Government, Canberra

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2019a) “Projected Population (Medium Series), by Local Government Area, Queensland, 2016 to 2041” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2019b) “Projected Population (Medium Series), by Five-Year Age Group, Persons, by Local Government Area, Queensland, 2016 to 2041” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2019c) “Bowen Basin: Non-Resident Workers On-Shift, by Local Government Area (LGA), 2006 to 2019” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2019d) “Bowen Basin: Non-resident Population Projections, by Local Government Area (LGA) (Series A), 2019 to 2025” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2020) “Residential Land Development Activity Profile, Central Highlands (R) Local Government Area (LGA)” (accessed 15 June 2020), Queensland Government, Brisbane

REMPLAN (2020) “REMPLAN Modelling and Analysis System” REMPLAN, Bendigo – REMPLAN utilises the following sources:

ABS 2016 Census Place of Work Employment (Scaled); ABS 2016 / 2017 National Input Output Tables; and ABS June 2019 Gross State Product.

Residential Tenancies Authority (2020) “Median Rents Quarterly Data” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Tourism Research Australia (2019) “Local Government Area Profiles, 2018 – Central Highlands (R) (QLD), Queensland” Australian Government, Canberra

Central Highlands Development Corporation

The Central Highlands Development Corporation is the lead economic and tourism development agency in the Central Highlands.

CHDC is a not-for-profit organisation and the lead regional development agency for the Central Highlands region of Queensland, Australia. Underpinned by robust and innovative industries including resources, mining, agriculture, tourism, small business and start-ups, we advocate for sustainable regional and economic growth by enhancing our workforces, promoting our region and supporting our businesses.

Our primary role is to facilitate, coordinate and promote regional development initiatives and opportunities in the Central Highlands region.

This role is further reflected in the CHDC’s core business goals:

1 Advocate for sustainable regional and economic growth

2 Proactively market and promote the Central Highlands as a “region of choice”

3 Enhance workforce development

4 Support business development, innovation and capacity

5 Support community organisations to develop skills and knowledge

6 Sustain, refresh and grow our organisation

Business and community partnerships are critical to the delivery of these goals. If you have any queries about the economic profile, the Central Highlands region, or any issues related to regional economic growth, do not hesitate to contact the CHDC via the details below.

Central Highlands Development Corporation

PO Box 1425, Emerald QLD 4720

T (07) 4982 4386

F (07) 4982 4068

E enquiries@chdc.com.au

W www.chdc.com.au | www.centralhighlands.com.au

This economic profile has been prepared by REMPLAN in partnership with the CHDC. All figures and data presented in this document are based on data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), and other government agencies. Using ABS datasets, the regional economic modelling software ‘REMPLAN Economy’, has been applied to generate industrial economic data estimates. This document is provided in good faith with every effort made to provide accurate data and apply comprehensive knowledge. However, REMPLAN does not guarantee the accuracy of the data nor the conclusions drawn from this information.

REMPLAN

T (07) 5689 1499 / (03) 5444 4788

W www.remplan.com.au