CHDC 2019 Central Highlands Economic Profile

Central Highlands | June 2019

Abbreviations

Throughout this profile a series of abbreviations has been utilised. These are summarised below:

ABS

CH

CHDC

CHRC

Central Queensland SA4

GRP

LGA

M2

QGSO

Australian Bureau of Statistics

Central Highlands

Central Highlands Development Corporation

Central Highlands Regional Council

Central Queensland Statistical Area Level 4

Gross Regional Product

Local Government Area

Square metres

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

QLD Queensland

RTA

SA4

TRA

Residential Tenancies Authority

Statistical Area Level 4

Tourism Research Australia

Our region in numbers Central Highlands

$ 8.419 bn

$ 3.777 bn

Mining is the largest employer of both the resident (22.2%) and non-resident (63.6%) workforce $ 5.706 bn

Contribution of the Mining sector to the total value-added for the Central

$ 813.163 m

Domestic imports to the region $ 1.436 bn

$ 2.033 bn

Mining is the highest contributor in terms of local expenditure

$ 3.929 bn

2,899 Businesses registered and operating in the Central Highlands ↑41.2 % Increase in number of businesses with turnover of $10 million or more from 2017 to 2018

$ 839 m

Economic value (2017) compared to $780m (2016)

1,445 Agricultural businesses

1.301 m megalitres

Fairbairn Dam, second largest storage in Queensland

$ 106 m Value of chickpea production

↑90 %

Value increase in wheat ($10m to $19m)

↓ 50 %

Value decrease in sorghum ($40m to $20m)

↑8.62 %

Value increase in cotton ($58m to $63m)

↑112 %

$ 235.556 m Tourism total output

4 nights Average length of stay domestic overnight visitors

Tourism is the 3rd highest employment sector in the Central Highlands

204,073 Annual passengers through Emerald airport 2018–19 FY

$ 56.685 m In wages

Agribusiness 15% 10%+

of national table grape crop

28,645 Population

of national mungbean crop

4.4 % Unemployment rate in the Central Highlands (6.2% in QLD)

33 y.o. Median age vs QLD average of 37

Top five

of Queensland’s mandarin exports

1.37 m

of cattle

of the population live and work in the region

income

Personal CH $843 CH $1,823 QLD $660 QLD $1,402 Median weekly

90% 67.3%

16,190 Labour force

Non-residential

Key drivers in terms of regional exports, employment, value-added and local expenditure on goods and services are: Mining, livestock, grains & other agriculture, accommodation & food services, retail trade, education & training

Regional snapshot

The Central Highlands is a robust region that sits at the heart of Queensland’s resources and agricultural sectors.

Spanning almost 60,000km2, the region includes a significant portion of Australia’s largest coal reserve, the Bowen Basin, and is strategically located to service Australia’s newest mining province, the Galilee Basin.

Sustained by irrigation sourced from water storage on the Nogoa and Comet Rivers, the Central Highlands is also characterised by thriving farming industries, including beef, cotton, grapes and citrus.

Major freight routes intersect the region, with the Capricorn Highway linking the coast to the outback and the Gregory Highway connecting northern Queensland and New South Wales. Pristine natural attractions, such as Carnarvon Gorge and the Sapphire Gemfields, are driving an emerging tourism market.

A population of more than 28,000 with a median age of 33 helps to underpin the Central Highlands’ economic strength of a skilled, locally-based workforce.

Demographics

30,133

Population

The Central Highlands population is predicted to remain steady in contrast to the state average

The estimated resident population in the Central Highlands as at 30 June 2018 is 28,645 people. Between 2008 and 2018 the Central Highlands (estimated resident) population increased by 555 people (2.0%), with an average annual compound population growth of 0.2% between 2008 and 2018. The Central Highlands population peaked at 29,782 in 2013 and began to experience a decline thereafter.

Population projections

Queensland Government population projections, 2018 edition (medium series) were released in November 2018. Between 2016 and 2041, the population of the Central Highlands is projected to increase by 1,350 people. This is equivalent to an annual average increase of 0.2% between 2016 and 2041.

Population projections by age cohort – Central Highlands

Population projections

65–79 years

Age group projected to experience the largest increase in population from 2016 to 2041 (1,540 people)

The majority of the Central Highlands population sits within the workforce working age demographic of 15–65 Population projections by age cohort – Central Highlands

For each five year period from 2016 to 2041, the annual average population growth in the Central Highlands is projected to gradually increase then remain steady. The annual average population growth in Central Queensland SA4 (comprising the Banana, Central Highlands, Gladstone, Livingstone, Rockhampton and Woorabinda LGAs) and Queensland are projected to gradually decline.

Average annual population growth in the Central Highlands is estimated to be lower than the surrounding Central Queensland SA4 and broader Queensland projections.

Non-resident population

3.6% vs 0.2% 4,045

Average annual growth of the non-resident population of 3.6% has outpaced resident population growth of 0.2% from 2008 to 2018

Non-resident population

The non-resident population currently sits at 4,045.

The estimated non-resident population in the Central Highlands as at 30 June 2018 is 4,045 people. The average annual non-resident population growth between 2008 and 2018 of 3.6% is significantly higher than the resident population growth over the same period at 0.2%.

Estimated resident population Non-resident workers on shift

Non-resident population projections

Between 2016 and 2021, the non-resident population of the Central Highlands is projected to decrease by 100 people. When combined with the forecasted resident population growth, total full-time equivalent population growth in the Central Highlands between 2016 and 2021 is projected to decrease by 132 people (average annual growth of -0.1%).

Source: ABS (2019a) and QGSO (2018c)

Source: QGSO (2018d)

Age

60–69 years old 33

Age group has experienced the most growth from 2011 to 2016

Average age compared to the national average of 37

The following demographic section is based on Place of Usual Residence data obtained from the 2016 ABS Census, the latest data available. The 2016 ABS Census was held on 9 August 2016 and data from the 2016 Census was released from mid-2017.

Age distribution

Analysis of the age structure of the Central Highlands residents in 2016 compared to Queensland shows there is a larger proportion of residents aged less than 15 years (24.7%, compared to 19.4% in Queensland). The Central Highlands also comprises a higher proportion of 25 to 54 year olds than Queensland (45.5%, compared to 40.5%). Conversely, the proportion of retirees (those aged 65 years and over) in the Central Highlands (7.6%) is lower than Queensland (15.3%).

Change in age distribution, 2011 to 2016

Between 2011 and 2016, the Central Highlands’ population decreased by 713 people. The largest changes in age structure in this area between 2011 and 2016 were in the age groups:

• 35 to 49 (-473 persons)

• 15 to 19 (-330 persons), and

• 60 to 69 (+264 persons).

The proportion of retirees in the Central Highlands (7.6%) is lower than Queensland (15.3%)

Origin

There is a higher proportion of Aboriginal people in the Central Highlands (4.0%) compared to Queensland (3.2%)

Indigenous status

Analysis of the Indigenous status of Central Highlands’ residents in 2016 compared to Queensland shows that there is a higher proportion of Aboriginals in the Central Highlands (4.0%, compared to 3.2% in Queensland). Overall, the local Indigenous population accounts for 4.3% of the total Central Highlands’ population, which is slightly higher than Queensland (4.0%).

Country of birth

Analysis of the country of birth of Central Highlands’ residents shows a higher proportion of residents born in Australia (76.0%, compared to 71.1% in Queensland). The top 10 countries of birth for Central Highlands’ residents include Australia, New Zealand, England, Philippines, South Africa, India, Zimbabwe, Papua New Guinea, United States of America, and Germany.

Origin

Population growth in the Central Highlands is being driven by arrivals from overseas, as well as other intrastate locations

Migration

8,635

People migrated to the Central Highlands from outside of Queensland. The second highest group of migrants to the Central Highlands was from overseas

Of the population living in the Central Highlands, 15,749 (56.2%) also lived in the Central Highlands five years ago. The largest migration of residents to the Central Highlands over the five year period from 2011 to 2016 from outside of the LGA was from residents who had previously lived overseas (725 people, or 2.6% of total Central Highlands’ residents), followed by residents from Rockhampton (452 people, or 1.6% of total Central Highlands’ residents). The largest migration of residents to the Central Highlands from outside of Queensland was from Tweed in New South Wales (31 people, or 0.1% of total Central Highlands residents).

Wellbeing

Top 28%

The SEIFA Index of Disadvantage for the Central Highlands is 1,006 and is in the top 28% of least disadvantaged LGAs in Australia

Need for assistance

Of the population living in the Central Highlands, 717 people (2.6%) have a need for assistance due to a profound disability, long term health condition or age. This is half the proportion of the population in Queensland with a need for assistance, reflective of a younger population profile in the Central Highlands.

Central Highlands Queensland

Has need for assistance with core activities

Does not have need for assistance with core activities

Not stated

SEIFA (Disadvantage)

Socio Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) is a suite of indexes that has been created by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) from social and economic Census information. Each index ranks geographic areas across Australia in terms of their relative socioeconomic advantage and disadvantage. This report presents information from the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage (IRSD), a general socio-economic index that summarises a range of information about the economic and social conditions of people and households within an area. This index includes measures of relative disadvantage only and is not evidence of relative advantage.

The SEIFA index of disadvantage for the Central Highlands (R) is 1,006. The local government area index of the Central Highlands (R):

• Ranks 393 out of 544 local government areas with SEIFA scores in Australia

• There are 151 local government areas which are less disadvantaged, and

• There are 392 local government areas that are more disadvantaged.

Wellbeing

Tieri The Gemfields

The least disadvantaged locality in the Central Highlands

The most disadvantaged localities are The Gemfields (788) and Willows (828)

Of 60 suburbs and localities located within the Central Highlands with a resident population, the least disadvantaged suburb is Tieri (1,092) and the most disadvantaged suburb is The Gemfields (788) followed by Willows (828). SEIFA Disadvantage

Central Highlands’ residents predominantly hold Certificate qualifications

Qualifications

The largest increase in qualifications from 2011 to 2016 was for residents with Graduate Diplomas and Graduate Certificates

31.0%

Analysis of the qualifications of the population in the Central Highlands compared to Queensland shows 7.8% of Central Highlands’ residents with a Bachelor Degree or higher, compared to 14.7% in Queensland. A higher proportion of Central Highlands’ residents hold a Certificate qualification (18.8%) compared to Queensland (17.2%).

Overall, 31.0% of the population hold educational qualifications, and 57.0% hold no qualifications, compared with 38.9% and 52.4%, respectively for Queensland.

Central Highlands Queensland

Change in Qualifications, 2011 to 2016

The largest changes in the qualifications of the population of the Central Highlands between 2011 and 2016 are in those with:

• No Qualifications (-1,363 persons)

• Graduate Diplomas and Graduate Certificates (+53 persons), and

• Postgraduate Degrees (+38 persons).

of the population hold educational qualifications

Income and families

23.0%

Weekly Individual Income

Analysis of individual income levels in the Central Highlands in 2016 compared to Queensland shows that the median weekly income is higher for local residents when compared to the broader State; $843 vs $660.

Overall, 23.1% of persons earn a low income (less than $400 per week) and 23.0% earn a high income ($1,500 or more per week), compared to 28.4% and 15.1%, respectively in Queensland.

Central Highlands Queensland

Family Composition

Central Highlands comprises a higher proportion of couple families with children (51.1%) when compared with Queensland (42.5%), and a lower proportion of couple families with no children (36.6%) compared with Queensland (39.4%).

Overall, 11.1% of families are one parent families, and 1.2% are other families, compared with 16.5% and 1.6%, respectively for Queensland.

Central Highlands Queensland

The Central Highlands comprises a higher proportion of couple families with children than the Queensland average

Dwelling tenure and structure

45.6%

of dwellings are owned outright or with a mortgage

Dwelling Tenure

Analysis of the housing tenure of dwellings in the Central Highlands in 2016 compared to dwellings in Queensland shows there is a larger proportion of rented dwellings or dwellings under other tenure types. This is reflective of the large non-resident workforce in the region, who are renting or living in various short term accommodation arrangements.

Overall, 45.6% of dwellings are owned outright or with a mortgage, 34.6% are being rented and 6.3% are other tenure types, compared to 58.6%, 31.3% and 2.0%, respectively in Queensland.

Dwelling Structure

As at 2016, there are 10,713 separate houses in the Central Highlands; 1,657 medium density dwellings, 6 high density dwellings, 938 caravans, cabins or houseboats; and 38 other dwellings.

There is a significantly higher proportion of ‘Caravan, cabin, houseboat’ dwellings in the Central Highlands (6.8%) compared to Queensland (2.1%). This can be attributed to the large number of non-residents staying in employer-provided accommodation while working in the region.

Central Highlands Queensland

Central Highlands Queensland

Rented dwellings represent the highest proportion of dwelling tenure in the Central

Mining

Within the Central Highlands workforce, the Mining sector comprises the largest number of employees

The Agriculture, forestry & fishing sector experienced the largest increase in jobs from 2011 to 2016

The following graphs illustrate the profile of employed people whose place of work is located within the Central Highlands. This includes residents and non-residents.

Employment by industry

The total employment estimate for the Central Highlands as at the 2016 Census is 17,019 jobs. The ‘Mining’ sector comprises 6,079 jobs, followed by the ‘Agriculture, forestry & fishing’ sector (1,791 jobs) and the ‘Retail trade’ sector (1,184 jobs).

Change in jobs by industry sector, 2011 to 2016

Between the 2011 and 2016 Census periods, there was a net decrease of 2,239 jobs in the Central Highlands.

17,019 Mining

The Central Highlands has a total workforce of 17,019, with 67.3% of workers residing locally

is the largest employer of both the resident (22.2%) and non-resident (63.6%) workforce

Source: REMPLAN (2019)

Occupation

4.4%

The unemployment rate has increased from 2.4% in 2009 to 4.4% in 2018

Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate in the Central Highlands in 2018 was 4.4%. From 2009 to 2018, the unemployment rate in the Central Highlands has ranged from a low of 2.4% in 2009 to a peak of 5.0% in 2015.

Central Highlands Central Queensland SA4 Queensland

Occupation

Compared to the Central Queensland SA4 and State averages, the Central Highlands has a higher proportion of ‘Technicians and Trades Workers’ and ‘Machinery Operators and Drivers’.

The Central Highlands workforce is dominated by Machinery Operators and Drivers and

and Trades Workers

Age and qualifications

25–44 yrs

Workers in the Central Highlands are predominantly in the 25 to 44 year age group

Age

The workforce age profile for the Central Highlands shows a higher proportion of workers in the 25 to 44 year age group compared to the Central Queensland SA4 and State benchmarks.

Work in the Central Highlands

Work in Central Queensland SA4

Work in Queensland

Qualifications

Workers in the Central Highlands have a lower representation of graduate qualifications (Bachelor Degree and higher) when compared to the Central Queensland SA4 and State averages. A higher proportion of workers have Certificate or No Qualifications in comparison to these benchmark areas.

Work in the Central Highlands

Work in Central Queensland SA4

Work in Queensland

REMPLAN (2019)

REMPLAN (2019)

Method of travel to work

65.9% 67.3%

Breakdown of the Central Highlands’ workforce

Of the 17,019 jobs in the Central Highlands, 11,461 workers (67.3%) also live in the region. Approximately 32.7% of workers (5,558 workers) in the Central Highlands live outside of the region. This is significantly higher than Central Queensland SA4 (12.8%) and is indicative of the large proportion of non-resident workers in the region. Central Highlands Central Queensland SA4

Source: REMPLAN (2019)

Method of travel to work

Over 98.7% of the Central Highlands’ workforce use the following methods to travel to work. Approximately 65.9% of workers travel by car (either as driver or passenger), 6.2% work from home and 5.6% of workers use the bus.

Output generated 59.9% $8.419 bn

Mining contributes 59.9% of total output in the Central Highlands

Output

Output data represents the gross revenue generated by businesses/organisations in each of the industry sectors in a defined region.

The output generated by the Central Highlands’ regional economy is estimated at $8.419 billion.

The 2016–17 Agribusiness Snapshot identifies that the Central Highlands conservatively delivered approximately $839 million in agricultural value (ACIL Allen based on ABS, 2016–17). Due to the problematic nature of data collected for agriculture in the region, CHDC commissions an annual comprehensive Agribusiness Regional Stocktake which provides accurate information on production and business data trends across key agricultural commodities for the Central Highlands, and is available from the CHDC website.

Value-added

$3.777 bn 58.0%

Total value-added Mining sector contributes 58.0% of total value-added for the Central Highlands

Value-added

Value-added data represents the marginal economic value that is added by each industry sector in a defined region.

Value-added can be calculated by subtracting local expenditure and expenditure on regional imports from the output generated by an industry sector, or alternatively, by adding the Wages & Salaries paid to local employees, the gross operating surplus and taxes on products and production.

Value-added by industry sector is the major element in the calculation of Gross Regional Product

The total value-added by the Central Highlands’ regional economy is estimated at $3.777 billion.

Local expenditure and regional exports

Local expenditure

Local Expenditure data represents the value of intermediate goods and services purchased by local industry sectors within the region. A high level of local expenditure on intermediate goods and services proportionate to total output is indicative of well-developed local supply chains and also that any expansion in this sector would typically deliver broad based benefits for the region’s economy.

The total local expenditure estimate for the Central Highlands is $1.436 billion.

Regional exports

Regional Exports data represents the value of goods and services exported outside of the region that have been generated by industry sectors within the region. The following graph depicts the contribution to total regional exports generated by each of the industry sectors ranked from highest to lowest.

The total regional export estimate for the Central Highlands is $5.706 billion.

Regional imports and key industry drivers

Top 5

Key drivers in terms of regional exports, employment, value-added and local expenditure on goods and services are: Mining, livestock, grains & other agriculture, accommodation & food services, retail trade, education & training

Regional imports

Regional Imports data represents the value of goods and services imported into the Central Highlands by businesses/ organisations in each of the industry sectors. Another way of defining imports is as an outflow of money from the Central Highlands. The following graph depicts the contribution to total regional imports generated by each of the industry sectors ranked from highest to lowest.

The total regional imports estimate for the Central Highlands is $3.206 billion.

Key industry drivers

Taking into consideration potential import replacement opportunities as well as current contributions to the regional economy in terms of employment, value-added and local expenditure on goods and services (backward linkages), key industry sectors have been identified. In order to understand the contributions of industry sectors in more detail, the general 19 industry sector classification has been broken down to the 45 industry sub-sector level. The following key industry sub-sectors have been identified as the key drivers of the Central Highlands region’s economy:

Key industry drivers

Total jobs estimate for the Central Highlands

Employment data refers to employed people whose place of work is located within the Central Highlands, which includes residents and non-residents. It is based on the ABS 2016 Census Place of Work data.

Employment

Employment is a key social outcome of economic development; employment data represents the number of people employed by businesses/ organisations in each of the industry sectors in the Central Highlands. The total employment estimate for the Central Highlands is 17,019 jobs. The key industries contribute 10,859 jobs or 63.8% of total jobs in the Central Highlands.

Livestock, grains & other agriculture (1,662)

Mining (5,871)

Retail trade (1,184)

Accommodation & Food Services (1,010)

Education & training (1,132)

Other (6,160)

Source: REMPLAN (2019)

Regional Exports

Regional Exports represents the value of goods and services exported outside of the Central Highlands region that have been generated by local businesses/organisations. Another way of defining exports is as an inflow of money into the region.

The total regional export estimate for the region is $5.706 billion. The selected sectors contribute $5.265 billion (92.3%) of total regional exports.

Livestock, grains & other agriculture ($398.52 million)

Mining ($4,753.62 million)

Retail trade ($5.71 million)

Accommodation & Food Services ($68.31 million)

Education & training ($39.24 million)

Other ($440.72 million)

Source: REMPLAN (2019)

Key industry drivers

$111.66 m

Education & training contribution of total value-added

Value-added

$813.163 m

Mining is the highest contributor in terms of local expenditure (45 industry sector level)

The total value-added estimate for the Central Highlands is $3.777 billion. The selected sectors contribute $2.614 billion (69.2%) of total value-added.

Livestock, grains & other agriculture ($181.21 million)

Mining ($2,168.02 million)

Retail trade ($84.37 million)

Accommodation & Food Services ($69.22 million)

Education & training ($111.66 million)

Other ($1,162.59 million)

Source: REMPLAN (2019)

Local expenditure

The following graph shows the value of intermediate goods and services purchased by industry sectors within the Central Highlands. The total local expenditure estimate for the Central Highlands is $1.436 billion. The selected sectors contribute $994.424 million (69.3%) of total local expenditure.

Livestock, grains & other agriculture ($127.66 million)

Mining ($813.16 million)

Retail trade ($17.94 million)

Accommodation & Food Services ($21.57 million)

Education & training ($14.09 million)

Other ($441.09 million)

Source: REMPLAN (2019)

The industry sectors may not necessarily make the largest contributions to the region’s economy at present, however due to well-developed local supply chains these sectors have a significant capacity to deliver broad based economic benefits for the region.

Summary indicators and gap analysis

$3.929 bn

21.5% $2.944 bn GRP for the Central Highlands region

The Central Highlands accounts for 21.5% of the Central Queensland SA4 GRP

The Central Highlands accounts for:

• 21.5% of Central Queensland SA4 and 1.1% of Queensland’s GRP

• 20.5% of Central Queensland SA4 and 1.2% of Queensland’s output

• 22.0% of Central Queensland SA4 and 1.2% of Queensland’s value-added

• 32.3% of Central Queensland SA4 and 5.2% of Queensland’s regional exports

• 26.3% of Central Queensland SA4 and 3.1% of Queensland’s regional imports.

Import Replacement Opportunities

Imports reflect demand in the area’s economy for goods and services not supplied locally and therefore represent ‘Gaps’ in local supply chains. Imports from the rest of Australia may indicate opportunities for import replacement, increased value-adding and supply chain development. Supply of these goods and services is currently feasible in the Australian context and may provide a guide to realistic, high value strategic opportunities to further develop the local economy. The total replacement of imports with local production is improbable however it may be possible to capture a proportion of this escape expenditure.

Total imports by industry sectors in the Central Highlands from the rest of Australia are estimated at $2.944 billion.

Total imports by industry sectors

Domestic imports – demand (from rest of Australia)

Source: REMPLAN (2019)

Gap analysis

$473.615m $285.454 m

Exploration & Mining Support Services have the largest imports from the ‘rest of Australia’

External Industry Sectors Supplying to the Region

In order to identify potential gaps within the region, REMPLAN data has been applied at the 45 industry sector level. The local industry sectors import a total of $2.944 billion of goods and services from the rest of Australia, conversely industry sectors in the rest of Australia supply $2.944 billion of goods and services to the local industries as part of the process of production.

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services in imports from the ‘rest of Australia’

What are the selected local demand sector(s) importing from rest of Australia? ($m)

Exploration & mining support services Professional, scientific & technical services Financial & insurance services

equipment & appliance manufacturing

& coal product manufacturing

support services & storage

& metal product manufacturing

trade

services

services

& food services

maintenance & other services

Public admin., regulatory services, order & safety Information media & telecommunication

Basic chemical, cleaning & polymer manufacturing Transport equipment & parts manufacturing Retail trade

Food product manufacturing

Livestock, grains & other agriculture

Administrative & support services

Apparel manufacturing

Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing

Saw mill, wood & paper product manufacturing

Pharmaceutical product manufacturing

Gas, water & waste services

Sports, recreation & gambling

Printing (incl. the reproduction of recorded media)

Education & training

Postal & courier pick-up & delivery service

Beverage product manufacturing

Agriculture, forestry & fishing support services

Forestry, fishing & hunting

Furniture manufacturing

Other manufactured products

Heritage, creative & performing arts

Aquaculture Personal services

Defence Residential care & social assistance services

Rental & hiring services (except real estate) Health care services

Source: REMPLAN (2019)

Major projects

The 2018 Development Register profiles $7.1bn of projects in progress in the region

bn $50.5 bn

Based on available information, there is currently $7.1 billion in known major project investment currently underway or planned for short term development in the Central Highlands.

Moreover, known projects of significance that are located outside of the Central Highlands region that will still have substantial economic benefits to the region approximate $43.3 billion.

Building approvals

70.8%

Separate house approvals have accounted for approximately 70.8% of total dwelling approvals from 2007–08 to 2017–18

Number of dwelling approvals

47%

The value of non-residential approvals has generally accounted for approximately 47% of the total value of building approvals

There were 22 new dwelling approvals in 2017–18, an increase of 5 dwellings over the previous 12 months, comprising 22 houses and no “other” (unit) dwellings. Dwelling approvals peaked in 2012–13 at 422 approvals. Since then the volume of approvals have experienced a significant decrease caused by trends in global mineral prices that affected the economy of the Central Highlands. Over the 10 year period from 2007–08 to 2017–18, separate house approvals have accounted for approximately 70.8% of total dwelling approvals. The highest levels of unit approvals occurred in 2011–12 (46% of total approvals).

Houses Other

Value of building approvals

The total value of building approvals during 2017–18 is $18.4 million. The value of residential building approvals peaked in 2012–13 at $235.9 million. The value of ‘non-residential’ approvals has generally accounted for approximately 47% of the value of total building approvals.

Source: ABS (2019c)

Source: ABS (2019c)

Residential lot approvals

50+ lots

Before 2015, larger projects of more than 50 lots have generally accounted for the majority of approvals

580

Between 2008 and 2018 the highest number of annual approvals occurred in 2008 at 879, with 80% of the lot approvals being in larger projects of more than 50 lots. Due to the fall in global mineral prices, the housing market has slowed in the Central Highlands leading to no new lot approvals from 2016.

Lot registrations

443

Number of lot registrations peaked in 2012 with 443 registrations

4

2018 saw the lowest number of lot registrations, with only 4 total lot registrations recorded

Lot registrations is the final stage of development of new lots. There is generally a time lag between lots being approved and lots being registered. The total number of lot registrations in the Central Highlands has decreased between 2017 and 2018. Since 2014, the volume of registrations has significantly declined.

Lot

a Lots on a standard format plan intended for detached dwellings, including lots intended for detached dwellings in a community title scheme.

b Lots on a building format plan or standard format plan that represent attached dwellings within a community title scheme.

Source: QGSO (2019)

Urban lots (60m2 to <2,500m2) have consistently accounted for the majority of standard residential lot registrations from 2008 to 2018. Unit & Townhouse lot registrations have on average represented 24.2% of residential lot registrations.

New lot sales and median price

85

Total number of lot sales peaked in 2014 with 85 sales

New lot sales

$70,000

Median price for vacant land was $70,000 in 2018

There were a total of 38 new lot sales in the year to September 2018 within the Central Highlands, of which 71% were vacant land sales. Vacant land sales have traditionally accounted for the majority of new lot sales within the region, with house and land package lots generally accounting for approximately 31.5% of sales.

Vacant land House & land package

Median price

The median sales price of vacant land has been decreasing since 2014. The median value of packaged house and land sales has also decreased since 2014. Vacant

a May include resales of vacant land. Excludes intermediate vacant land transactions relating to developer house and land package sales.

b Includes lots as a component of a developer house and land package in addition to subdivided lots containing an existing dwelling. Source: QGSO (2019)

Source: QGSO (2019)

Source: QGSO (2019)

Dwelling sales and median price

$185,000

Median sales price for the year ending September 2018 for detached houses was $185,000 and $170,000 for units and townhouses

Dwelling sales

There were a total of 382 new and established detached and attached dwelling sales in the year to September 2018 within the Central Highlands, of which 91% were detached house sales. Detached housing sales have accounted for the majority of dwelling sales activity within the region, accounting for approximately 88% of all dwelling sales over the last five years.

Detached houses

Units and townhouses

Median price

Both the detached and attached dwelling markets experienced a peak in median sales price in 2014, at $350,000 and $320,000, respectively. While the median sales price for both detached and attached dwelling markets have been in a state of decline, the year to September 2018 saw prices increase to 2016 levels.

382

Dwelling sales peaked in the year ending September 2018, with a total of 382 sales

Median weekly rent

25.5%

Three bedroom townhouses experienced the largest increase in median weekly rent of 25.5% from December 2017 to December 2018

Regional data has been sourced from the Queensland Residential Tenancies Authority for median rental data from the June Quarter 2014 to December Quarter 2018 for:

• Units/Flats – two and three bedroom

• Houses – three and four bedroom, and

• Townhouses – three bedroom.

After a period of decline from June 2014 to June 2017, median rents in the Central Highlands started to steadily increase from December 2017.

Output

69.3%

Accommodation & food services sector contributes 69.3% of total tourism related output

Tourism is not identified as a separate industry sector in the National Accounts data, instead tourism is an amalgam of activities across various industry sectors such as retail, accommodation, cafés & restaurants, and cultural & recreational services. The Tourism Module in REMPLAN estimates the total value of tourism for the local economy.

Tourism output

The estimated output generated by tourism for each industry sector has been deducted and consolidated into a separate tourism sector. The Central Highlands’ total output estimate is $8.419 billion, with Tourism contributing $235.556 million. Output (with separate Tourism sector)

Output attributable to tourism

Tourism output has been estimated to be $235.556 million. The following graph shows the gross revenue generated by businesses and organisations in the Central Highlands to service demand generated by tourists to the area.

Employment

7.1% 78.8%

Tourism sector contributes 7.1% to total Central Highlands’ employment

Tourism employment

Accommodation & food services sector contributes 78.8% to total tourism related employment

The employment generated to service demand from visitors for each industry sector has been estimated through applying industry profiles from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Tourism Satellite Account and consolidated into a separate tourism sector. Tourism is estimated to account for 1,207 jobs (7.1%) of the total 17,019 jobs in the Central Highlands.

Employment (with separate Tourism sector)

Employment attributable to tourism

The total tourism related employment estimate for the Central Highlands is 1,207 jobs. The following graph shows the number of jobs in each industry sector in the region which service demand generated by tourists to the area.

Distribution of tourist dollar and visitor profile

$0.69/$1

For each dollar spent by a tourist in the Central Highlands, it is estimated that typically $0.69 is spent on accommodation & food services

Distribution of tourist dollar

The average length of stay of domestic overnight visitors is 4 nights while international visitors is 23 nights

Average spend per trip for domestic overnight visitors is $449 while international visitors is $682

For each dollar spent by a tourist in the Central Highlands, it is estimated that typically $0.69 is spent on ‘Accommodation & Food Services’, $0.09 is spent on ‘Transport, Postal & Warehousing’, and $0.06 is spent on ‘Retail Trade’.

Visitor profile

The visitor profile provides data for the Central Highlands for a four year average to 2017.

Average length of stay

The following data has been sourced from Tourism Research Australia, Local Government Area Profile, 2017 for the Central Highlands. Within the Central Highlands, the average length of stay for international visitors is 23 nights, while the average length of stay of domestic overnight visitors is 4 nights. Domestic overnight visitors spend an average of $449 per trip and $115 per night, compared to $682 and $30, respectively for international visitors.

Emerald Airport

Passengers through Emerald Airport have typically peaked in the June/July period

Passengers

204,073

Passengers through the airport for the 2018–19 FY

In 2018–19 there were a total of 204,073 passengers recorded through Emerald Airport. The number of passengers through Emerald Airport peaked in 2012–13 with a total of 310,640 passengers. While the number of passengers through the airport has been decreasing since 2012–13, this decrease has lessened, from -15% from 2012–13 to 2013–14 to -1% from 2017–18 to 2018–19.

Source: CHRC (2019)

Business activity

2,899 35%

Businesses registered and operating in the Central Highlands

Business activity

of registered businesses are in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector

As at June 2018, there are 2,899 businesses operating in the Central Highlands. The largest number of registered businesses are in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector (1,011), followed by ‘Construction’ (385).

Change in businesses, 2016 to 2018

Between 2016 and 2018, the number of registered businesses in the Central Highlands has decreased by 41 businesses. The ‘Construction’ sector experienced the largest decline in business numbers (-20), followed by the ‘Manufacturing’ sector (-13). The ‘Financial and Insurance Services’ sector experienced the largest increase in business numbers from 2016 to 2018 (19).

Business activity

Owner/operator businesses account for the highest proportion of registered businesses in the Central Highlands

Workforce size

$200,000 – $2m

Businesses with a turnover of $200,000 to less than $2 million account for the highest proportion of Central Highlands’ registered businesses

Between 2016 and 2018, the largest change occurred for businesses that employ 200 or more staff, decreasing 100% from 3 in 2016 to no businesses in 2018. Businesses which do not employ any staff (i.e. owner/operator) account for the highest proportion (61.9%) of Central Highlands’ registered businesses.

2018 2017 2016

Turnover

From 2016 to 2018, the largest change in businesses by turnover was for businesses turning over between $200,000 and $2 million, increasing from 1,161 in 2016 to 1,207 in 2018, an increase of 4.0%. The largest proportion of businesses by turnover is businesses turning over $200,000 to less than $2 million, accounting for 41.6% of Central Highlands’ businesses in 2018. The $50,000 to less than $200,000 range accounts for the second highest proportion of businesses (29.7%).

2017 2016

Business registrations

1.4% ↑41.2%

Number of businesses with turnover of $10 million or more increased by 41.2% between 2017 and 2018

Total number of registered businesses in the Central Highlands decreased by 1.4% from 2016 to 2018

Business registrations by industry

Registered businesses with turnover $200,000 to less than $2m has grown

Business registrations by workforce size and turnover

4.4%

Unemployment rate in the Central Highlands has remained steady from 2016 with 718 unemployed people

Labour force

The estimated number of people employed in the Central Highlands in 2018 is 15,472 people. Since 2009, the labour force has decreased by 2,056 people; the number of employed people has decreased by 2,337 people and the number of unemployed people has increased by 282 people.

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business (2019)

Annual Employment Change

The annual change in the number of people employed within the Central Highlands peaked between 2013 and 2014 with a growth of 533 people employed. Between 2017 and 2018 the number of people employed in the Central Highlands has remained at 15,472 people.

Agribusiness Regional Stocktake Baseline Data To Drive Growth

November 2018 – update

This report presents a snapshot of the Central Highlands’ agribusiness sector, showcases the opportunities in the Central Highlands and can inform future analysis and policy development.

The Central Highlands delivers approximately $839 million in agricultural value (ACIL Allen based on ABS, 2016–17). Cattle grazing is the largest agricultural activity generating $530 million. Cotton is another key driver of value. According to official data, the value of production of wheat and sorghum is $39 million while pulses (chickpeas) have an economic value of $106 million. The region also boasts a thriving table grape sector ($17 million). Changes over the last two financial years are summarised in Table 1 on page 47. The region continues to perform strongly in agricultural production regardless of a dryer than usual climate in recent times.

The Central Highlands Accelerate Agribusiness Strategic Advisory Group (CHAA) identified five key pillars that underpin their agribusiness development strategy:

• Production Excellence

• Connected, Competitive Supply Chains

• Revered Regional Brands

• Ready for Business, and

• Fearless Invention

The stocktake is constructed to explore the evidence base that underpins each of the five key pillars.

Production Excellence

The Central Highlands outperforms its peers in terms of agricultural area and agricultural GVP per capita. On the contrary, the region shows less strength in the measures of agribusiness per capita and diversification performance. Recently, the region has also outperformed its peers in terms of growth. According to ABS data cumulative annual growth rate on value per hectare of agricultural land has increased at a higher rate in the Central Highlands than in other comparable regions (refer Figure 1).

The Central Highlands is not the primary grain growing region for Queensland, however, the natural soil fertility and ideal climate for growing a variety of summer and winter crops provides producers with opportunities to diversify their enterprise mix in order to spread the risk of a highly variable climate. Producers utilise modern farming practices to maximise the return on investment of assets managed. The comparably lower land prices to the Darling Downs present a good value proposition for long term investors in the region.

Figure 1 Value generated from a hectare of agricultural land – selected locations – growth per annum Australia Central Highlands Darling Downs New England & NW

Note: Increased value is driven by a combination of higher market prices and improved yields. From 2016–17, ABS data only includes data from businesses with an estimated value of agriculture operations of $40,000 and above. Prior years included all above $5,000. Non-ABS data on the value of citrus in the Central Highlands has been included in the calculations for 2015–16 and 2016–17 only. The value of citrus was derived as a proportion of total Queensland exports (90%).

Source:

Acil Allen based on Australian Bureau of Statistics

Connected Competitive Supply Chains

Over 40 per cent of the inputs purchased by Central Highlands’ agribusinesses are sourced from inside the region in 2017 (REMPLAN). The remainder is mostly sourced from other regions and a small percentage comes from overseas. Most of these imports were of manufactured goods and professional and technical services, industries in which the Central Highlands is seeking to grow and improve capability.

Agricultural freight is predominantly moved by road as rail haulage is mostly composed of mining products and agriculture is a secondary priority. The Federal Government confirmed an investment of $2.9 million in the Yamala intermodal rail freight hub which will connect the rail and the Capricorn Highway and “provide better logistical options for the farmers of this district”.1 The intermodal hub will be built in conjunction with GrainCorp, the Central Highlands Regional Council and the Federal Government. The intermodal hub is designed to improve supply chain efficiency and incentivise a greater utilisation of rail.

Despite the region being a strong performer in several primary industries, a considerable amount of the processing of the output of these industries is done outside the region. Indeed, the Central Highlands’ processing of primary products include cotton gins, packing facilities and grain storage and handling facilities where some initial processing of the grain is undertaken.

The Emerald saleyards are important to the Australian cattle markets. Besides serving the State and national markets, the region is an important primary exporter. ACIL Allen has estimated that the value of exports from the Central Highlands would have amounted to approximately $800 million in 2016–17. Cattle exports (mainly beef) explains 46 per cent of this figure. India, Japan and China were the three top export markets for regional produce and explained almost half of the total sales (Figure 2).

Revered Regional Brands

A survey of members of the local community was conducted in mid-2018 (Central Highlands Development Corporation, 2018).2 The aim of this research was to assist in building the regional brand by developing and refining communication strategies, materials, activities so as to create a ‘revered regional brand’ (Central Highlands Development Corporation, 2018).

A total of 344 surveys were completed (143 online and 201 via telephone). The respondents were broadly categorised as ‘dedicated’ and ‘interested’ buyers. The respondents in the ‘dedicated’ group (n=108) were those most likely to already be buying local fresh food, whilst the ‘interested’ group (n=211) were willing to purchase local fresh food but currently do so to a lesser degree than the ‘dedicated’ group (Central Highlands Development Corporation, 2018).

1 The Hon Michael McCormack MP Deputy Prime Minister Minister for Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development Leader of The Nationals Federal Member for Riverina – Press conference with Ken O’Dowd MP, Member for Flynn, Emerald, 18 November 2018.

Figure 2 Central Highlands (R) – Exports in 2016–17 (E) by commodity (left) and by market (right) – in $ million

Acil Allen based on Queensland Government Statician’s Office

Overall, only 24 per cent of the Central Highlands fresh food buyers were aware of branding that told them that they were buying food grown in the Central Highlands – this increased to 36 per cent for those consumers segmented as ‘dedicated’ (Central Highlands Development Corporation, 2018). This is not dissimilar to the results from the workshop in 2017 where few brands (6) were mentioned three or more times and only two actually were mentioned more than three times.

Further work needs to be done to improve awareness of local produce, awareness of local brands and where the community can purchase them through the development of a regional communication and marketing strategy aimed at creating an enduring revered brand.

Ready for Business

Agribusinesses are a key value and employment driver in the region. Over 40 per cent of registered firms in the region are agribusinesses. Seventy per cent of these businesses employ less than five employees and 40 per cent of them are owner-operator businesses. (ABS, 2016). These firms are benefitting from the region’s abundance of cropping land, robust water availability and high reliability, and low land prices.

Under the Nogoa-Mackenzie Water Supply Scheme the region has 232 GL of allocated water and is supported by the Fairbairn Dam which is the second largest water storage in Queensland. The scheme is competitively priced in comparison to other regional schemes such as Burdekin, Bundaberg, Mareeba Dimbulah and St. George. The region has approximately two million hectares of strategic cropping land (i.e. land with high agriculture potential). The region boasts one of the lowest average farm land rental prices in the country. The availability of irrigation, large endowment of strategic cropping land and low land prices has drawn the attention of several intensive horticulture businesses.

The Federal Government has announced $3 million in funding towards the modernisation of Fairbairn Dam.3 The project will add a 6500 megalitre storage capacity. This will provide distinct opportunity for irrigated agriculture in the region. It’s expected that the dam modernisation will include an additional 50 jobs and 115 additional indirect jobs.4

The Central Highlands compares well to other similar regions in terms of the efficiency of the labour market, having a relatively young population and the endowment of natural resources (refer Figure 3). However, it lags in terms of economic diversification and business sophistication.5

3 The Hon Michael McCormack MP Deputy Prime Minister Minister for Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development Leader of The Nationals Federal Member for Riverina – Press conference with Ken O’Dowd MP, Member for Flynn, Emerald, 18 November 2018.

analysis is based on the Regional

Institute [in]Sight indicator. For details please refer to the full Stocktake document.

Figure 3

Highlands (R) –

ranking on the [in]Sight Index

Fearless Invention

The Central Highlands shows a mixed picture in terms of invention/ innovation indicators. While the number of employees in knowledge intensive firms and the creation of businesses remains adequate, the region is trailing in terms of trademark applications and R&D activity.

According to the ABS the region does not have any registered research service providers. However, data provided by CHDC shows that the region has two of such facilities (CQ University and Emerald Grain Research and Development Corporation). Also, according to official data, the proportion of professional service firms with a turnover in excess of $2 million is just 2 per cent. This small share indicates that the region is trailing in terms of value generation in the sector, and presumably explains why professional services is one of the key imports from outside the region.

Table 1 Update from the previous version of this report

* There may be double counting between cereals and pulses due to changes in ABS data categories between 2015–16 and 2016–17.

** Assuming 90% of Queensland exports of Mandarins are attributable to production in Central Highlands.

Note: All data is rounded.

Source: ACIL Allen based on Australian Bureau of Statistics

For more information

Liz Alexander

Agribusiness Development Coordinator

Central Highlands Development Corporation

Postal Address: PO Box 1425, Emerald Qld 4720

Office Address: 31 Ruby Street, Emerald Qld 4720

T 07 4982 4386

F 07 4982 4068

M 0429 471 511

E ealexander@chdc.com.au

W www.chdc.com.au | www.centralhighlands.com.au

Bibliography

ACIL Allen (2018) “Central Highlands Accelerating Agribusiness Stocktake – November 2018 Update” Central Highlands Development Corporation, Emerald

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2017) “Australian Census of Population and Housing 2016” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2019a) “Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2017–18” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2019b) “Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, Cat. No. 6291.0.55.001, Feb 2019” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2019c) “Building Approvals, Australia, February 2019, Cat. No. 8731.0” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2019d) “Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, June 2014 to Jun 2018” Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra

Central Highlands Development Corporation (2018) “Development Register Central Highlands region, August 2018” Central Highlands Development Corporation, Emerald

Central Highlands Regional Council (2019) “Emerald Airport Traffic Data July 2010 to March 2019” Central Highlands Regional Council, Emerald

Department of Jobs and Small Business (2019) “Small Area Labour Markets publication – December Quarter 2018”

Australian Government, Canberra

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2018a) “Projected Population (Medium Series), by Local Government Area, Queensland, 2016 to 2041” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2018b) “Projected Population (Medium Series), by Five-Year Age Group, Persons, by Local Government Area, Queensland, 2016 to 2041” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2018c) “Bowen Basin: Non-Resident Workers On-Shift, by Local Government Area (LGA), 2006 to 2018” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2018d) “Bowen Basin: Non-resident Population Projections, by Local Government Area (LGA) (Series A), 2018 to 2024” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (2019) “Residential Land Development Activity Profile, Central Highlands (R) Local Government Area (LGA)” (accessed 19 March 2019), Queensland Government, Brisbane

REMPLAN (2019) “REMPLAN Modelling and Analysis System” REMPLAN, Bendigo – REMPLAN utilises the following sources:

ABS 2016 Census Place of Work Employment (Scaled)

ABS 2015 / 2016 National Input Output Tables, and

ABS June 2018 Gross State Product.

Residential Tenancies Authority (2019) “Median Rents Quarterly Data” Queensland Government, Brisbane

Tourism Research Australia (2018) “Local Government Area Profiles, 2017 – Central Highlands (R) (QLD), Queensland”

Australian Government, Canberra

Central Highlands Development Corporation

The Central Highlands Development Corporation is the lead economic and tourism development agency in the Central Highlands.

CHDC is a not-for-profit organisation and the lead regional development agency for the Central Highlands region of Queensland, Australia. Underpinned by robust and innovative industries including resources, mining, agriculture, tourism, small business and start-ups, we advocate for sustainable regional and economic growth by enhancing our workforces, promoting our region and supporting our businesses.

Work, Play, Discover the Central Highlands https://youtu.be/PA9-BfAFiAQ

Central Highlands Agriculture – more than you expect! https://youtu.be/jKM9PA811lc

Our primary role is to facilitate, coordinate and promote regional development initiatives and opportunities in the Central Highlands region.

This role is further reflected in the CHDC’s core business goals:

1 Advocate for sustainable regional and economic growth

2 Proactively market and promote the Central Highlands as a “region of choice”

3 Enhance workforce development

4 Support business development, innovation and capacity

5 Support community organisations to develop skills and knowledge

6 Sustain, refresh and grow our organisation

Business and community partnerships are critical to the delivery of these goals. If you have any queries about the economic profile, the Central Highlands region, or any issues related to regional economic growth, do not hesitate to contact the CHDC via the details below.

Central Highlands Development Corporation

PO Box 1425, Emerald QLD 4720

T (07) 4982 4386

F (07) 4982 4068

E enquiries@chdc.com.au

W www.chdc.com.au | www.centralhighlands.com.au

This economic profile has been prepared by REMPLAN in partnership with the CHDC. All figures and data presented in this document are based on data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), and other government agencies. Using ABS datasets, the regional economic modelling software ‘REMPLAN Economy’, has been applied to generate industrial economic data estimates. This document is provided in good faith with every effort made to provide accurate data and apply comprehensive knowledge. However, REMPLAN does not guarantee the accuracy of the data nor the conclusions drawn from this information.

REMPLAN

T (07) 5689 1499 / (03) 5444 4788

W www.remplan.com.au