FEATURE | e d i t i o n
2021-2022 A Citrus Forecast
AS THE FLORIDA CITRUS INDUSTRY waits for the official 2021-2022 USDA Citrus Forecast Report to drop in mid-October, some of the growers think “the drop” may be one of the keys to the whole season.
Growers Cautiously Eye Weather, Drop Rate Heading Into New Season by TIM CRAIG
12 | CFAN
The 2020-2021 season finished with 52.8 million boxes, a somewhat lower-than-expected result that was hindered by a significant late-season drop that led to a record drop rate: 43 percent for early- and mid-season oranges, 41 percent for Valencias — the highest recorded drop rates in a non-hurricane year. “We had a historically high drop rate last year that had an impact on last year’s crop,” says Larry Black from the Peace River Packing Company. “This year, if the weather is good through the fall and into spring, we should see a much-lower drop rate this season.” But the drop rate isn’t the only thing that will impact this year’s crop, says Black: There are fewer trees in production this year. “There are 3 percent fewer trees in production heading into the 2021-2022 growing season, so my initial expectation is that there will be fewer boxes,” he says. “However, the growing conditions have been ideal so far. We’ve had good weather and a compact bloom, so I’m hopeful the final yield will overcome that loss of trees.” While the official forecast is set for Oct. 12, private consultant Elizabeth Steger released her forecast on August 16, predicting 52 million boxes, which is slightly less than last year’s final numbers. Her forecast includes lower numbers of early- and mid-season oranges from last year (20.8 million, compared with 22.7 million last year), but higher numbers of Valencias (31.2 million, compared with 30.1 million last year). Florida Citrus Mutual CEO Mike Sparks says that Steger’s estimate of 52 million is generally in line with what he has heard from the growers he has visited. But, he says, it all could depend on the drop rate. “Last year, we looked like we might have been on the recovery, but when that fruit dropped, it ate up all of the growers’ profits,” he says. “So the big question on everyone’s mind heading into this year is: ‘What will be the drop?’” Sparks remains optimistic about the 2021-2022 season. He’s seen a more even bloom and the rainfall has been fairly good. He notes that while there may be less fruit, there could be larger pieces, which could balance things out. “I think we’re looking at a similar prediction to the previous year, around 55-57 boxes, but an estimate of 60 million will not surprise me,” he says. “We’re entering this next season with a lot of optimism, FloridaAgNews.com
