NEIGHBOURSCAPE TORONTO 2030
PEG LAHN & CAMERON NORMAN Toronto Neighbourscape 2030: Futures of Thriving Toronto Neighbourhoods SFIN 6C02: Foresight Studio Final Project Dossier December 2012 2 Â
Navigation Table of Contents: 6 Introduc-on 8 Project Outline 9 Project Approach 10 Research Ques-on 15 Federa-on X: 16 Strategies 18 Trends and Drivers 19 Trends 23 > The Glocal Village 26 > The Ci-zen Cartographer 29 > Seeing My Data 31 > Mixed Use Zoning 33 > Ci-es are Growing Up 35 > Falling Glass Towers 37 > Where did ‘away’ go? 38 > Reclaim industrial spaces 40 > I’m Walkin’ 42 > Small But Mighty 43 > Rise of City-‐States 45 > Downtown McRetail 46 > The Power of 10 49 > I Share, You Share
51 > I’ll Trade You This for That 53 > Are We There Yet? 54 > Third Space 57 > Toronto Grown Tastes 58 > DIY Neighbourhood 60 > Home is Where the Work is (Done or Near) 62 Drivers 65 Uncertain-es 66 > Cri-cal Uncertain-es 67 Scenarios 68 > Economy of Scale 71 > The Commonists 73 > The Wild West 76 > The Privateers 80 Strategies 83 > Matured Value: Seniors 84 > Zoned Out: Mul--‐use zoning 88 > The Net-‐Bourhood: Virtual Community 93 > Re-‐Boot the Rise: Tower Renewal 99 Opportuni-es 104 References 113 Credits 3
FUTURES OF THRIVING TORONTO NEIGHBOURHOODS
"In 2008, for the first time in history, more than half of the world’s population will be living in towns and cities. By 2030 this number will swell to almost 5 billion” - United Nations Population Fund (2005;2007). Urbanization: A Majority in Cities: Population & Development
The world’s population is becoming more urbanized. In the early part of this century the planet reached a milestone: more people were living in cities than anywhere else. Within these cities exist microcosms of smaller communities tied together by geographic proximity, shared infrastructure, physical landscape, and often social customs: neighbourhoods. Neighbourhoods are the villages of the 21st century and also serve as hosts for what Marshall McLuhan called The Global Village. The City of Toronto is relatively young by global measures, but poised to transform into a leading centre of commerce, culture and ideas in the next 20 years as it draws an influx of social capital from around the world. The people at the heart of that capital are settling into hundreds of small neighbourhood communities as part of this larger social project called Toronto.
Technology and globalization are bringing people together, both socially and geographically, in ways that have never been seen before. This is changing the way people organize themselves physically, the demographic composition of those who inhabit those spaces, and the kinds of activities people do in such space. Some of this is online, some of it is in the physical world, all of it is in the neighbourhood.
What that neighbourhood looks like is up to us. The Neighbourscape 2030 initiative has sought to explore possible futures by employing foresight methodology to provide strategic insight into the trends and patterns that are will shape the next 20 years in the city of Toronto. The aim of this initiative is to provide guidance to philanthropic and grantmaking communities on the strategies and tactics that could best serve their needs as well as those of the citizens of Toronto. 6
WHAT WILL A THRIVING TORONTO NEIGHBOURSCAPE LOOK LIKE IN 2030? NEIGHBOURSCAPE is a term derived for this project to encapsulate thinking that suggests the concept of neighbourhood goes beyond the traditional physical sense of the word, yet is still rooted in a sense of place. It is also a landscape that is transforming online and off such that dynamic engagement between these worlds makes for something more than the term neighbourhood itself captures alone. 7
PROJECT OUTLINE The City of Toronto is a city on the move… Within a generation this city’s size is expected to more than double to 7.1 million people by 2030 (Dotan, 2012), continuing to expand its diversity (City of Toronto, 2012) as immigrants from around the world choose Toronto as their home. As its demographics change so will its economics, social life and the demands and opportunities that come with a larger, more densely populated urban centre and the neighbourhoods within it. This new milieu will create new connections and utilize emergent tools to facilitate that connectivity to each other and the world. The decisions that government, business, and citizen groups make will mitigate the impact such changes have on Toronto and particularly its most vulnerable citizens. How to plan for the future depends on what we see as part of that future (indeed, futures - plural) and to this end we ask: