CEIS Petroleum Update September 2012

CARIBBEAN ENERGY INFORMATION SYSTEM (CEIS) SEPTEMBER 2012 ISSUE

Impact of US$1 increase in World Crude Oil Price on Transportation and Electricity Costs in Jamaica

while generally following crude oil, exhibit their own dynamics influenced by several other factors.

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Fluctuations in international Crude Oil prices are said to be the reasons behind the changes in the retail pump prices for petroleum products and electricity rates in Jamaica. In this issue of the CEIS Petroleum Update, we will seek to provide an understanding of the petroleum pricing mechanism and assess how a US$1 change in Crude Oil price impacts the Jamaican retail prices for refined petroleum products and electricity to the Consumer.

Understanding the Petroleum Pricing System

for use by the Jamaica Public Service Company Limited. The prices are calculated in US$/Litre (see Table 1 overleaf).

Even when crude oil prices are stable, refined product prices normally fluctuate due to factors such as: seasonal demand swings, refinery upsets, capacity swings, supply disruptions & geo-political events. Therefore, it is not a simple matter to estimate the impact of a $1 change in the crude price on product prices although this may impact the US Gulf Coast Reference Price (USGC). Note, also that an increase in the World Crude Oil price may not necessarily result in an increase in the US Gulf Course Reference Price although the typical trend is in the direction the World Crude Oil price goes.

Petrojam's ex-Refinery Product Prices are based on the principle of "Import Parity." This is a method for establishing the market-based cost of imports.

The main intention is to ensure that products are priced at no more than what it would cost to import the product regardless of whether it is imported or produced by Petrojam. The ex-Refinery Pricing Formula ensures

Jamaica imports crude oil mostly from Venezuela and Mexico for refining to satisfy between 55-60% of the refined products distributed locally. The remaining 40-45% of refined products is imported mainly from Trinidad and Tobago. The price of crude oil on the continued on page 2/ world market to some extent, CONTACT US dictates the overall price level of refined product prices. HowCaribbean Energy Information System ever, refined product prices,

The Petrojam refinery calculates prices for all petroleum products that are distributed to Marketing Companies in Jamaica and

CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE

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Scientific Research Council Hope Gardens, Kingston 6, Jamaica 1-876-927-1779 (Telephone) 1-876-977-1840 (Fax) ceis@src-jamaica.org www.ceis-caribenergy.org

is a monthly Bulletin which highlights petroleum issues affecting or relevant to the Caribbean, international developments that may affect the region’s way of life and movements in oil prices and retail prices for fuel regionally.

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Call: 1-876-927-1779 | Caribbean Petroleum Update : September 2012

Impact of US$1 increase in World Crude Oil Price on Transportation and Electricity Costs in Jamaica.................................................. continued from page 1 Table 1: Synopsis of Jamaica’s Petroleum Retail Price Structure

a

Price/Tax/Margins Comments The Gulf Reference Price/West Used as base price by the Refinery and Texas Intermediate Basis varies based on the daily fluctuations in World Crude Oil prices.

How Calculated Market conditions

transparency in the industry by ensuring that competitive prices are always a feature of the Jamaican market.

The main input to the pricing formula is the USGC Price for the product.

However, there are other components b Ex-refinery price Government’s return on equity added to Formula such as: Foreign exchange rate (forex), the Gulf Reference price. This is Ex-refinery Price = US Gulf rate of taxation, etc. Marketers add a calculated using a formula only available Reference Price + freight + margin and other service costs to Petroto Petrojam. insurance + premium factor jam's published "Ex Refinery Billing + other charges and fees Price" to arrive at their station/retail prices. c Special Consumption Tax Fixed Fixed tax added to the each fuel type as Reg. Gas - J$16.11/L indicated.

Prem. Gas - J$16.48/L Therefore, the starting point for setting Diesel - J$15.41/L local product prices is not the price of Kero.- J$15.41/L Crude Oil. Rather, it is the USGC for LPG J$0.0392/L the product and as such there is no diReg. Gas - J$16.11/L rect pass through of cost of Crude Oil. d Ad-Valorem (a) Where the fuel is manufactured in Approved by Government Jamaican product prices therefore move upwards & downwards with Jamaica, the 15% will be applied to the ex Released Dec 24, 2009. refinery price inclusive of the Specific http://www.jrs.gov.jm/home movements in the underlying USGC component of the SCT. _template.php?page=newsa prices. Generally prices move in the direction of the USGC if all other fac(b) Where the fuel is imported into rticles&id=258 tors remain stable. In addition, if there Jamaica the Ad Valorem rate will be is an increase in the USGC in one week applied to the value as prescribed in the the increases in product prices are GCT Act. The items for which this applies likely to be seen in the following week. include: -Motor Spirits including E10/87, E10/90 Cost to Transportation -Automotive Diesel Oil -Kerosene (Excluding Turbo Jet) Two components, account for 80% of the final pump prices. These are: (a) e Refinery Billing Price Price at which Petrojam sells fuel to the a + b + c + d The US Gulf Coast Reference which Marketing Companies/Distributors accounts for 50% & (b) Taxes which account for 30%. The other 20% perf Industry Margins Amount applied to refinery billing price by Market is de-regulated and cent accounts for service costs and reRetailers as such margins vary at tailers/industry margins. service stations which set their own retail price.

At the risk of oversimplification, a US$1 increase in the underlying USGC g Retail/Selling Price Price at which the consumer purchases e + f reference price for gasoline, will result fuel. in an increase in the local pump price

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Caribbean Petroleum Update : September 2012 | Call: 1-876-927-1779

in J$/litre. However, the magnitude of the change is unclear as factors such as: foreign exchange movements, tax rates, Marketers margins, and the relative contribution of percentages in a complex formula, (among other factors) can also impact the price changes.

Pump prices in Jamaica are changed weekly using the Refinery Billing Prices. Petrojam uses the average of the previous week’s USGC prices as part of the formula to arrive at the weekly Refinery Billing Prices for products.

All other factors remaining stable a US$1 increase in USGC prices may translate to between J$0.60/Litre – J$1.50/Litre increases in the retail pump prices for refined products.

Electricity Cost to the Consumer The Jamaica Public Service Company Ltd (JPSCo) under a direct supply agreement, purchases fuel (heavy Fuel Oil – HFO and Diesel) from Petrojam for electricity generation. The formula for calculating the price at which Petrojam sells fuel to JPS also uses the US Gulf Coast Reference Prices as the base. The fuel cost incurred by JPS and Independent Power Producers (IPPs) is passed directly to the consumer on the electricity bill as Fuel & IPP Charge.

However, losses and variations above the approved amounts stipulated by the Office of Utilities Regulations (OUR) have to be bourne by JPS. This means that if JPS operates at losses greater than 19.5% and at a heat rate greater than 10400 kilo-joules/kwh these cost cannot be passed to the consumer.

Therefore the Fuel & IPP charge on the electricity bill is based on net generation figures and each consumer pays the same rate. However, there is an Energy Charge which primarily is

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charged based on the tariff structure approved by the OUR for the different customer categories.

This Energy Charge is fixed and primarily based on the kWh consumption of the customer.

Fuel & IPP Charge covers the cost of the fuel required to produce and deliver each kWh of electricity, and some of the costs of the power JPS buys from Independent Power Producers (IPP). JPS pays the IPP a fixed rate (Capital cost – Capacity Payment, Variable O&M, and Fixed O&M) for the power that is received. However, the IPP’s fuel cost is also based on the USGC prices and JPS only pays for the net generation.

Similar to the retail prices for petroleum products, there is no direct correlation between increases in World Crude oil prices and increases in the Fuel & IPP charges made by JPS. Therefore a US$1 increase in crude oil prices may not necessarily result in an increase in the US Gulf Reference Prices for the products used by JPS. However, a US$1 increase in the USGC prices will result in this direct cost being passed to JPS by Petrojam for the fuel. This fuel cost is then translated into a per kWh cost by JPS and therefore, if JPS operates within the OUR authorized efficiency standards direct increases in fuel cost per kWh will be passed directly to the consumer provided that all other factors remain stable.

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Call: 1-876-927-1779 | Caribbean Petroleum Update : September 2012

CARIB PETROLEUM NEWS & HAPPENINGS Tesla unveils faster electric car-charging station State cancels oil driller’s licence Gas stations to reject credit cards Oil Drops Below US$92 Cancellation of LNG project could cause fallout in investment community Dumped! Government to throw out LNG project USVI governor meets with senators on final report for best use of HOVENSA refinery Oil’s slide continues, hits 6-week low below $92 Guyana engages in talks to continue oil exploration JPS pole falls on car Consumer group against break-up of JPS monopoly Oil declines to 2-week low Oil higher for 2nd day, still buoyed by fed Caribbean must step up oil spill emergency response Exploration round launched, areas brush 800,000ha - Guatemala PETCOM takes over prime gas station site Assessment of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of South America and the Caribbean, 2012 Latin American oil demand to rise 4.8% in 2013, says IEA - Regional Petrobras begins pre-salt production on FPSO Cidade de Anchieta - Brazil Security review at Petrojam progressing - Paulwell Bahamas faces 'not just an oil find' says IMF Power Failure Grips Most Of Cuba In Stark Reminder Of Days Past Samsung team to visit Jamaica for LNG talks Licence Renewed for Bahamas Petroleum Company Oil Exploration, Company Says Ramnarine- Petrotrin up and running Killed six of the 32 injured in fire at gas station (CUBA)

27-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 25-Sep-12 25-Sep-12 24-Sep-12 21-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 13-Sep-12

12-Sep-12 12-Sep-12

Licensing system for gas stations under review Energy reform may come before new president, says expert - Mexico Deepwater round draws 3 new entrants -Trinidad & Tobago Gov’t to address licensing process for gasolene retailers BP unveils new technology to boost oil production Paulwell says ‘no shutdown of petroleum sector’ Oil price up to near us$97 ahead of ECB meeting Fuel fury - Shutdown of petroleum sector looms Julian Robinson heads to summit in Malta Aruba oil refinery to turn into storage facility Fuel fury - Shutdown of petroleum sector looms US-bound natural gas exports tumble in first half - Regional Little relief at the pump this Labour Day Cayman hosts the 1st Caribbean international electric car show Press release: statement from Petrojam limited Pricey petrol - Gas prices keep rising First Electric Vehicle charging station Curacao Airport Holding and Aqualectra Venezuela's Amuay oil refinery reopens after fire

11-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 10-Sep-12 10-Sep-12 10-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 09-Sep-12

Search on cippet news archive for the above PETROLEUM NEWS

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06-Sep-12 06-Sep-12 05-Sep-12 05-Sep-12 05-Sep-12 05-Sep-12 04-Sep-12 04-Sep-12 04-Sep-12 04-Sep-12 04-Sep-12 04-Sep-12 03-Sep-12 03-Sep-12 03-Sep-12 02-Sep-12 02-Sep-12 01-Sep-12

Caribbean Petroleum Update : September 2012 | Call: 1-876-927-1779

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REGULAR UNLEADED GASOLINE AVERAGE PRICES AT THE PUMP September 2012 Analysis of retail prices for Regular Unleaded Gasoline in sixteen Caribbean countries at the end of September 2012 revealed that four countries had increases in prices (Bahamas, Grenada, Jamaica and Montserrat); four countries saw decreases (Dominica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines and Turks & Caicos) while the remaining eight countries had stable prices when compared to the previous month. It is important to note that prices in Antigua & Barbuda and Trinidad & Tobago have remained stable since the start of the year (US$1.23 and US$0.42 per litre respectively).ď‚Ą

Regular Unleaded Gasoline Average Retail Price (US$/Litre) 2012 COUNTRIES

JAN FEB

MAR

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG

SEP

9 Mths AVG

ANTIGUA/ BARBUDA

1.23

1.23

1.23

1.23

1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23

1.23

1.23

BAHAMAS [91 OCT]

1.33

1.35

1.44

1.46

1.47 1.46 1.39 1.41

1.52

1.43

BARBADOS BELIZE [87 OCT] B.V.I [87 OCT] DOMINICA GRENADA (95 OCT) GUYANA JAMAICA 87 Octane[E10] MONTSERRAT ST. KITTS/ NEVIS ST. LUCIA ST. VINCENT/ GRENADINES SURINAME [95 OCT] TRINIDAD/ TOBAGO [92 OCT] TURKS/ CAICOS

1.55 1.41 1.26 1.12 1.23 1.11 1.23 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.19 1.40 0.42 1.58

1.59 1.45 1.27 1.14 1.28 1.08 1.30 1.21 1.19 1.22 1.16 1.43 0.42 1.58

1.66 1.51 1.29 1.19 1.36 1.09 1.32 1.29 1.32 1.22 1.13 1.49 0.42 1.61

1.72 1.54 1.29 1.25 1.42 1.09 1.37 1.39 1.29 1.24 1.17 1.52 0.42 1.70

1.77 1.55 1.29 1.30 1.42 1.16 1.32 1.41 1.28 1.25 1.21 1.54 0.42 1.78

1.70 1.58 1.19 1.16 1.32 1.06 1.33 1.30 1.25 1.22 1.18 1.45 0.42 1.51

1.69 1.51 1.26 1.20 1.33 1.10 1.30 1.30 1.25 1.24 1.18 1.46 0.42 1.62

1.78 1.49 1.29 1.33 1.36 1.17 1.27 1.4 1.24 1.27 1.17 1.46 0.42 1.68

1.70 1.47 1.24 1.22 1.28 1.07 1.26 1.28 1.22 1.28 1.21 1.43 0.42 1.60

1.70 1.58 1.19 1.17 1.29 1.06 1.28 1.28 1.25 1.25 1.19 1.45 0.42 1.54

NOTE: *US Gallon = 3.785 L *Imperial Gallon = 4.546 L *As at November 1, 2009 MTBE was phased out from all gasoline blends in Jamaica and replaced with 10% Ethanol.

SEE CHART ON PAGE 6 >>

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Call: 1-876-927-1779 | Caribbean Petroleum Update : September 2012

CHART OF RETAIL PUMP PRICES FOR SEPTEMBER 2012

Comparative Retail Pump Prices Regular Unleaded Gasoline SEPTEMBER Avg vs 9 Mths Avg (Jan - September 2012)

US$/Litre

1.8 1.6

SEP

1.4

AVG

1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

16 Caribbean Countries

See prices for all products at www.cippet.org .

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Caribbean Petroleum Update : September 2012 | Call: 1-876-927-1779

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Source: http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kentonline/news/2011/april/19/nu-venture_supports_charter.aspx?theme=print

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Call: 1-876-927-1779 | Caribbean Petroleum Update : September 2012

Average Weekly & Monthly Crude Oil Prices (July September 2012)

100.0

97.56

98.0

96.22

US$/BBL US$/BBL

96.0

94.0

92.6

92.0 90.0

90.34

88.0 86.0 84.0

Jul

82.0

Aug

Sep

Mth Avg

80.0

WK 1

WK 2

WK 3

WK 4

Period

Assessment of International Crude Oil prices over the three months period Jul - Sep 2012 saw prices in September averaging at US$94.61/BBL. When compared to the average prices seen in July and August, this average price was approximately 15% and 8% higher respectively. The highest average price seen in September was US$97.56/BBL - seen in the second week.

This price was approximately 1.4% higher than the highest price seen in August and 3% higher than September’s average price. Although prices for the three months were seen at an all time high in September, the price went down to US$91.35/BBL in the fourth week of the same month.

Average Monthly World Crude Oil Prices (2009 - 2011) 109.61

108

US$/BBL

98

88.14

88 78

76.19

68

58 48

2009

2010

2011

38

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Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Period

Caribbean Energy Information System (CEIS) primary report of historical annual petroleum energy statistics provided for 18 Caribbean Countries.

Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, electricity, as well as financial and environmental indicators for over twenty years.

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