China Expansion and Vietnam Market Entry

China Expansion and Vietnam Market Entry

Team 1: Matt Anderson Blake Champion Cassie Layton Chris Ramirez

Table of Contents

2

In this report, our team has outlined a strategic expansion proposal for Tyson after evaluating macroeconomic conditions and the competitive landscape of the protein industry in China and Vietnam.

Executive Brief Company Overview Tyson’s Domestic Market Share Global Overview Country Analysis: China Country Analysis: Vietnam Cage Model Why China and not Vietnam Addressable Market China Protein Consumption Current China Protein Market Porter’s Five Forces Competitive Advantages Political Environment Decision Tree Modes of Entry Asymmetries to Leverage Entry Strategy Conclusion Appendix

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-22 23 24-26

Executive Brief

3

Problem: Tyson has a growth imperative and must expand globally. Tyson’s customers are already in foreign markets and are continuing to expand. There is also risk to only exporting due to the current political environment.

Our Recommendation Enter the Chinese chicken market through acquisition • •

•

• •

Poultry consumption continues to grow at the highest rate among all proteins in China at 8.3%. In 3 years with only 5% market share, Tyson could capture $100 Billion* in revenue China’s GDP per capita (2017 PPP US$) is 17,252 which is more than double of Vietnam. China’s per capita income growth is also 1.2% higher than Vietnam.

With a larger market and higher growth rate, China is the most attractive investment.

Secure long-lasting market share beyond exports due to the unstable environment during the US-China tariff war by acquiring Guangdong Jialong Food Company Ltd. Purchase at a discount, given the firm’s underperformance of -18% YOY revenue.

Infuse operational efficiency, supported by Tyson’s proprietary production process, routing systems, and corporate marketing shared services Secure market share during political tariff war between US and China

Reinvest profits to expand production capacity in China.

Aggregate domestic and international demand from surrounding Asian countries, such as Vietnam, and export from China • •

Vietnam shows healthy per capita growth of 5.8% and demand for chicken is rising With free trade between China and Vietnam, Tyson’s costs are significantly less than its current global strategy of exporting from the US

Closely monitor the beef industry in China and expand protein offering only if local laws improve and industry matures • • •

Projections detail a growing demand and production gap.

Current state consists of a immature market, which imposes increased risk for expansion at this time Local jurisdiction’s involvement in the market is volatile and disruptive; however, a shift in regulation may create opportunity

Tyson Company Overview

4

We recommend leveraging the production knowledge asymmetry from the US into China. Tyson is experiencing positive CAGR growth where 36% of operating profit is on chicken and 30% on beef. Tyson’s US market share in the US is concentrated in chicken and beef.

Industry reports from Barclays, PiperJaffray, and Buckingham show positive performance growth projections for Tyson

positive CAGR Tyson has the highest operational profit on chicken. Beef represents Tyson’s highest percent of revenue as beef has higher price points.

Tyson’s Domestic Market Share Tyson’s core strength is in beef, chicken, prepared foods and pork based on its share of its protein portfolio. In the US, Tyson has 23% market share in beef and 20% market share in chicken.

5

Tyson Global Overview

6

Tyson has a growth imperative as they expand and to gain a larger global footprint. Chicken exports to China currently account for 25% of all chicken imports to China despite political uncertainty.

Export sales from the United States totaled $3.9 billion , $3.5 billion and $4.1 billion for fiscal 2017 , 2016 and 2015 , respectively (Tyson 2017 – 10K)

Exports 10% of 2017 Sales

US meat exports to remain positive. Strong global protein demand will drive strong US exports

While exports projected to remain strong, changing political landscape threatens export revenue.

Country Analysis: China The GDP per capita growth is continuing to grow at 6.8%. More people are working with increased output of 7.3% per employed person.

China’s economy is growing and Tyson already has existing market share through imports. We see opportunity to capture incremental market share by putting steel in the ground. China’s location and growth is prime for acquisition to quickly enter the market.

Labor GDP: GDP per capita (2017 PPP US$): 17,252 Employment (2017 - thousands): 776,400 Per capita income growth: 6.8% Employment percentage: 59.7% GDP (2017 PPP US$ - millions): 23, 824 Employment growth (2017): 0.04% Output per Employed person GDP growth rate (2017): 7.4% growth: 7.3% Population: Contributions to GDP growth: Population: 1.3 billion Population growth rate (2017): 0.58% Labor quantity (2017): 0.1% Labor quality (2017): 0.3% Capital (2017): 3.8% TFP (2017): 2.7% Exports and Import: Exports: 2.1 billion Imports: 1.7 billion

Country Analysis: Vietnam Despite GDP per capita income growth of 5.6%, the total market demand is not large enough for capital investment into the country.

Our focus will be to export to Vietnam to capture market share at a reduced cost.

GDP: GDP per capita (2017 PPP US$): 7113 Per capita income growth: 5.6%

Labor Employment (2017 - thousands): 53,363.5 Employment percentage: 55.9% GDP (2017 PPP US$ - millions): 690,452 Employment growth (2017): 0.90% GDP growth rate (2017): 7.6% Output per Employed person growth: 6.6% Population: Population: 95.5 million Contributions to GDP growth: Population growth rate (2017): 0.91% Labor quantity (2017): 0.4% Labor quality (2017): 0.1% Capital (2017): 4.1% TFP (2017): 1.5% Exports and Import: Exports: 2.1 billion Imports: 1.7 billion

CAGE Model: Comparing China & Vietnam

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In comparing China and Vietnam, we see many similarities. Through the four points of evaluation in the CAGE model, we see opportunity in both regions.

Cultural Distance

Administrative Distance

Geographic Distance

Economical Distance

• Language not the same but share a lot of borrowed vocabulary • Both follow Communist traditions • Chinese least religious country in the world, Vietnam limited religion (Buddhist)

• Colonial ties between the two nations • Both members of ASEAN • Single political systems • Both lack trust / legality black cloud over both Countries.

Lack of trust by other governments.

• Perceived Corruption in both Counties.

• Both belong to the world trade organization (WTO) • Border war in 1979 to 1990, negatively hurt relationship

• Ideal trading partners from logistical standpoint • Neighboring counties • Similar store layouts / purchasing decisions at local markets.

• Share the Gulf of Tonkin • Plethora of farm land

• Both show very strong growth (Vietnam about 6%) • Vietnam very small 47th largest economy in the world • Lack infrastructure and financial resources • Strong human capital • Useful natural resources • Strong growth by counties within the ASEAN

Why China and not Vietnam

10

While both China and Vietnam are growing in GDP per capita, the China market has more disposable income and a larger market opportunity to capture first. Vietnam is still attractive, but would like to put our investment in China first as a hub to export to other Asian countries.

Per capita consumption of poultry in China

Addressable Market

11

China’s rising rate of consumption per capita, coupled with their market size makes the poultry protein market lucrative. In 3 years with only 5% market share, Tyson could capture $100 Billion in revenue. This could increase to $800 Billion in revenue per year in 10 years.

Projections and Sensitivity Analysis in the next 5 years

Projections and Sensitivity Analysis in the next 10 years

Increased competition will have a negative effect on pricing over time. This is whys we need to build now and take advantage of early learnings and gain efficiencies by building a greenfield model. Through this model we can leverage first mover advantage on other food products. We will leverage our production knowledge asymmetry to protect our market share as we enter China.

China Protein Consumption

12

Pork is the most popular protein choice in China, but is a highly saturated and competitive market. Chicken shows continuous growth and is Tyson’s highest operating margin. Beef consumption has a higher demand than production demonstrating opportunity for market entry.

Pork per capita consumption Pork consumption is the most popular protein in China. Year over year data shows Pork consumption trending down indicating there may be a change in consumer taste profiles as per capita income increases.

Poultry per capita consumption Poultry consumption continues to grow at the highest rate among the three proteins at 8.3%

Beef per capita consumption Beef is slowly growing. We see a faster growth rate in urban areas than in rural. Beef is the most expensive protein which may signal an increase in consumption with per capita income increases.

China Protein Market

13

Demand continues to rise for protein in China. GDP per capita growth coupled with revenue growth of the meat processing industry demonstrates opportunity for Tyson. Transferring Tyson’s operational and production capabilities will yield higher profit margins compared to competitors.

Revenue for the Meat Processing industry in China is set to reach $109.55 billion in 2017 which is up 3.9% for the year.

Supply Industries • Pig farming • Poultry Farming • Sheep and Cattle Farming

Meat Processing in China • Major Players: • WH Group Limited • Shandong Jinluo Group • Zhucheng Waimao Co • Shandong Delisi Group • Yuron Group

Demand Industries • Supermarkets • Fill-service restaurants • Fast-Food restaurants • Cafes, Bars & Other establishments

The Meat Processing industry has strong potential as there is a current increase in the rapid pace of modern life in urban cities . Incomes are also increasing for rural residents which leads to stronger demand for industry products.

Porter Five Forces

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The industry threats are high, specifically regarding protein alternatives and competitors; however, protection exists within the large-scale, low-quality, mass produced/distributed market segment. Multi-site, multi-regional chain buyers, supplying to the price-sensitive consumer, have less supplier options and, in turn, lower buying power, when seeking a one-source protein provider.

Additionally, although barriers of entry are low for the industry overall, creating operational scale/efficiency to best capture the price sensitive market requires a higher cost of capital, thus increasing protection.

Threat of Substitutes: High • • • • •

Alternate protein sources: crickets, beans, lentils, seeds, fish, turkey.

Trends for plant-based diets increasing.

Meat imitators Lower-priced, canned good alternatives Protein supplements such as blended shakes / mixes

Competitive Rivalry: Medium-High • • •

Multi-national rivals with similar quality and mass-production capabilities (JBS / Smithfield) Local producers unable to provide the scale for mass grocers, but can obtain share, especially within urban markets.

Organic / All-natural farms with perceivably healthier products

Buyer Power: Medium-High • • • • •

Increasing GDP Price-sensitive Can afford high-priced meat (especially in urban regions), but willing to accept lowquality Low cost to switch Low brand loyalty

Threat of New Entrants: Medium • • • •

Price-sensitive customers require firms to build economies of scale to lower fixed costs.

R&D investments required to max livability ratio, and to optimize production formulas.

Stringent Chinese regulations for processing facilities.

Strict import / export laws.

Supplier Power: Low-Medium • • • •

Largely consists of local farms Increasing demand for product Multitude of supplier options.

Large buyers mandate their terms be accepted (capturing almost all margin)

Heptagon of Competitive Advantage

15

Tyson’s value exists in the mass-production of high-quality, low-cost protein, capitalizing on operational efficiencies and distribution resources to capture the price-sensitive consumer market.

National Differences There are arbitrage advantages by producing in China with lower cost of labor.

Demand is growing at 8.3% in China for chicken as GDP per capita rises.

Economies of Replication Tyson should partner with the best farming suppliers and monitor through strict oversight to leverage domestic asymmetries in China.

Quality control for consistency and productions standards.

Economies of Scale Increased scale regionally will lower distribution costs, as Tyson expands beyond the Northeast region of China.

Global Learning Bring knowledge from US market into China production facility.

Generate higher operating profits than competition due to sophisticated manufacturing and investments in R&D.

Non Market Strategies Growing uncertainty between the US and China makes exporting more risky.

Recommend to watch increased regulation on beef.

Economies of Scope Operational efficiency and purchasing leverage will lead to lower operational costs.

Utilize inventory and IT systems, in order to aggregate supply globally.

Global Leverage and Flexibility Aggregate demand and use China manufacturing as a hub to export to neighboring Asian regions.

Exploit lower cost of labor and increase profitability in China.

Political Environment

16

The political environment between the US and China is one of the primary reasons why Tyson should enter China now. This strategy is to protect current market share and gain additional market share.

Furthermore, by entering China, Tyson can create a global distribution network with China as its hub.

Transactional relationship

Differences in business practices (ex: bribes)

Vietnam accepting Chinese investment for growth

US China political instability Political Landscape

Economic zones in Vietnam are aiding Chinese companies in Vietnam

Decision Tree

17

Tyson should focus on chicken by buying a production facility in China.

They can add capacity and export to Vietnam with no tariffs or import taxes. Beef has high demand, but also high risk.

1

2

Domestic Focus

Export

Enter China

4

China

Vietnam

Chicken

Beef

Pork

3

1)

2) 3)

4)

5)

Chicken

Chicken

Beef

Beef

Pork

Pork

Build

5

Buy

Own

Local Distributor

Buy

Create Sales Force

Other

Tyson could choose to refocus its energy into the US market as its home market and not focus on global expansion. However, given the current market share in the US and that Tysons customers, like KFC, are rapidly expanding globally and into China, Tyson needs to consider going global.

Tyson already knows how to export chicken and has captured market share in China.

Therefore, we recommend continuing this learned approach to Vietnam for further market penetration.

One of Tyson's asymmetries is its ability to create efficiencies in production because it invested heavily in industry-leading research into new protein production method and technologies. Therefore, for highest profit opportunity, buying low and successfully making the production better and more efficient will have larger pay offs. Buying a low performing production facility also is cheaper than building a brand new facility because there are potential barriers as a US company such as government payments, permits, etc.

China's current policy is not to accept imported beef. There is a large gap projected between China's growing consumption and current domestic production. This gap is an opportunity for Tyson. There is still political risk, but given the trade wars, already being in the market can prove be first mover advantage during the current beef embargo. Because beef is still an emerging market, it has the highest profit potential of the three protein options. However, with a large black market, we recommend to hold for now and wait for more government regulation.

Being new to distribution in China and the complicated infrastructure, it is better for Tyson to find a partner to already has strong distribution ties to all the different market segments (retail, large food chains, etc.). Tyson can learn the business and provide additional funding if needed to better transport the beef. Once the network is understood, then Tyson can determine whether to vertically integrate or not.

Modes of Entry

18

We evaluated several modes of entry to China and by weighting several variables, a fully owned facility is the most advantageous. This option leverages Tyson’s core asymmetries for high operational margins and to protect its production technological efficiencies.

• • •

• •

Criteria

Export

License

Joint Venture

Fully owned

Global previous experience Poultry advantage Beef advantage Tech/R&D advantage Cost advantage Distribution & marketing Distribution (outside of China) Industry factors CAGE Political non-market Free trade zone Transaction specific factors Strategic factors

5 3 1 4 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 4 30

2 1 2 2 4 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 4 30

2 4 4 1 4 4 3 4 2 3 3 4 2 40

2 5 4 4 1 4 5 4 5 5 3 4 5 50

Tyson currently is exporting into China. All other experience is domestic which is why they get 2’s.

Vertical integration has made poultry successful.

US exports blocked for beef. The beef industry is fragmented in China. Tyson would need to leverage local expertise.

Theft or loss of IP/operation control is important to Tyson (feed control, logistics, etc.).

Tariffs are a concern as well as large sunk costs needed for vertical integration and control.

• •

•

• •

Local expertise needed to supply QSR’s, retail, and food service sectors.

Research shows animal protein consumption increasing for poultry and beef in China. Exporting may not be a long-term solution due to increased demand and concerns around tariffs.

CAGE – political risk a concern. Exploit local labor and aggregate demand to enter neighboring countries.

Tyson’s ability to service the supply chain in China.

Maintain competitive advantages which has made Tyson successful.

Asymmetries to Leverage

19

Tyson has many asymmetries and advantages that can be leveraged as they build in China. The top two will be the creation of operational efficiency and utilization of proprietary production systems to create higher profits than local competition.

Established Credit / Financial Stability

Shared Marketing / Support Services

Industry Learning

Proprietary Production Systems

Operational Efficiency

Tyson will bring proprietary process advantages, routing logistics systems, and established industry learning to maximize livability ratio, product development time, and distribution scalability.

Brand

Leadership

Routing Systems

Entry Strategy: Stage 1

20

Identify distressed or low performing protein manufacturing companies to acquire to quickly leverage asymmetries in Chinese market. Majority of investment will focus on poultry business to capture immediate revenues, while beef will be developed using a long-term strategy of being profitable after being established.

Guangdong Jialong Food Company Ltd.

Summary: • Company is not performing well Chicken, chicken powder, and chicken juice products over the last few years.

Asymmetries: • 2016 year-on-year change in operating cash flow of -58.12% Company is mainly engaged in food R&D and production and manufacturing. Vertically integrated.

• Profit margins continue to decline Plan of execution: Products and services:

Leverage R&D facilities to incorporate Tysons technology and partner with distributor to focus on Chicken and drop other product lines (powders/sauces)

Total Revenues (th $): 42,971 EBITDA (th $): 9,283 Ownership: 100% directly owned Employees: 490

Entry Strategy: Stage 2

21

Vietnam is growing and shows healthy demand for chicken. After securing market share in China, we recommend within year 3 to begin increasing production and exporting from China into Vietnam.

Per capita growth & high demand for chicken CAGE model demonstrates China and Vietnam have limited distance No trade barriers between China and Vietnam

Cheaper to export to Vietnam from China than from the US

By reinvesting profits from China production and increasing capacity, China can become a hub to export to other Asian countries. This allows for more types of chicken sales (e.g.fresh vs frozen) and also comes at a cheaper cost. Stage 2 sets Tyson up for future sales and market share in the Asian markets.

Entry Strategy: Stage 3

22

In our initial analysis, we originally thought beef should be the primary focus with the highest value of future payouts. The beef market is still fragmented in China with a high growth potential. Tyson should continue to watch the market and act quickly when opportunities arise to gain market share in this segment.

There is a large gap in the demand and production of beef in China. Beef is also sold at a higher price point than chicken. Beef is also one of Tyson’s core strengths based on its domestic market.

However, the black market in China for beef makes beef production in China too risky for Tyson. If the government continues to create new regulations to crack down on the black market, Tyson should quickly move on this opportunity.

In the image above, you can see police officers pouring gasoline on confiscated smuggled meat before setting it on fire. If the government continues to create new regulations to crack down on the black market, Tyson should quickly move on this opportunity. Currently, Tyson and other US companies cannot import beef into China. If Tyson can leverage its Stage 1 production into cattle, we see tremendous opportunity.

Until then, we recommend to hold and watch the market and regulations from the Chinese government.

Conclusion

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Tyson should put stakes in the ground in China by purchasing a lower performing facility. Leveraging the incremental operating income and revenue from chicken production, Tyson should export to Vietnam.

Next stage is for Tyson to keep an eye on the beef market and enter once risk has decreased.

2019 Purchase Guangdong Jialong Food Company Ltd. • Bring production knowledge • Create higher net operating profit on chicken

2019 Distribute Chicken in China using a local distributor

2022 Reinvest $100B in revenue by increasing capacity Begin exporting to Vietnam 2024 Maintain a close eye on beef market and political landscape. Expand quickly into beef if black market risk is decreased significantly.

2029 Use China as a hub for production to other Asian countries

Our recommendations are based on Tyson’s asymmetries and the political landscape of China as well as the market and growth potential in the protein industry. Tyson must position itself as a global company. With the growth imperative and high pressure for efficiency, Tyson can capture high demand in China immediately and utilize China as a hub to export to other Asian regions. Our multi-phase approach focuses on long term sustainable advantages by reinvesting into the market and creating a distribution network to capture global market share.

Appendix A

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Macro Data Variables Level Variables GDP EKS Employment Average Hours Worked Total Hours Population

Measure Total GDP, in millions of 2017 US$ (converted to 2016 price level with updated 2011 PPPs) Persons employed (in thousands of persons) Annual hours worked per worker Total annual hours worked (in millions of hours worked) Midyear population (in thousands of persons)

China 2017

Vietnam 2017

23,824,636 776,400 2,174 1,688,166 1,380,942

690,452 54,279 2,170 117,763 97,076

30,686

12,720

14

6

17,252

7,113

7.392 0.048 0.048 0.589

7.615 0.909 0.909 0.915

7.341 7.341 6.764

6.645 6.645 6.639

Per Capita Income and Labor Productivity Output per Employed Person Output per Hour Worked Per Capita Income

Labor productivity per person employed in 2017 US$ (converted to 2016 price level with updated 2011 PPPs) Labor productivity per hour worked in 2017 US$ (converted to 2016 price level with updated 2011 PPPs) GDP per capita in 2017 US$ (converted to 2017 price level with updated 2011 PPPs)

Growth Rates GDP growth Employment growth Total Hours growth Population growth Output per Employed Person growth Output per Hour Worked growth Per Capita Income growth

Growth Growth Growth Growth

Variables Growth rates

Measure

GDP Labor Input - Quantity Labor Input - Quality Capital Input - Total

Growth of GDP, log change (multiplied by 100) Growth of Labor Quantity, log change (multiplied by 100) Growth of Labor Quality, log change (multiplied by 100) Growth of Total Capital Services, log change (multiplied by 100) Growth of Capital Services provided by ICT Assets, log change (multiplied by 100) Growth of Capital Services provided by Non-ICT Assets, log change (multiplied by 100)

Capital Input - ICT Capital Input - Non ICT

of GDP, percent change of employment, percent change of total hours worked, percent change of population, percent change

Growth of Labor Productivity per person employed, percent change Growth of Labor Productivity per hour worked, percent change Growth of GDP per capita, percent change

China 2016

Vietnam 2016

7.0 0.2 0.5 10.1

6.0 0.9 0.2 7.3

15.3

18.1

9.8

6.2

0.1 0.3 3.8

0.4 0.1 4.1

0.3

0.9

3.5 2.7

3.2 1.5

62.1

43.8

37.9 1.7 36.2

56.2 4.6 51.6

Contributions to GDP growth Labor Quantity Contribution Labor Quality Contribution Total Capital Contribution ICT Capital Contribution Non-ICT Capital Contribution Total Factor Productivity

Contribution of Labor Quantity to GDP growth (7=2*13) Contribution of Labor Quality to GDP growth (8=3*13) 3.80% Contribution of Capital Services provided by ICT Assets to GDP growth (10=5*15) Contribution of Capital Services provided by Non-ICT Assets to GDP growth (11=6*16) Growth of Total Factor Productivity (12=1-7-8-9)

Shares Labor Share Capital Share ICT Capital Share Non-ICT Capital Share

Share of Total Labor Compensation in GDP Share of Total Capital Compensation in GDP, calculated as 1 minus the labor share Share of ICT Capital Compensation in GDP Share of Non-ICT Capital Compensation in GDP

Appendix B

25

Macro Data - continued Variables Central Bank Policy Rate Deposit Rate Lending Rate

Measure Percent per Annum Percent per Annum Percent per Annum

China (mainland) 2017 Vietnam 2017 2.5 6.25 1.5 4.78 4.35 7.40

Variables CPI Labor Labor

Measure Prices, Consumer Price Index, All items, Index Employment, Persons, Number of (in thousands) Labor Markets, Unemployment Rate, Percent

China (mainland) 2016 Vietnam 2016 119.0880516 155.7987946 776400 53363.5 3.94% 2.10%

Variables Goods, Value of Exports, US Dollars (millions) Goods, Value of Imports, CIF, US Dollars (millions)

Measure

China (mainland) 2016 Vietnam 2016

US Dollars

2136708.319

176600.9293

US Dollars

1589463.35

174230.842

Variables Domestic Currency per U.S. Dollar, End of Period Domestic Currency per U.S. Dollar, Period Average

Measure

China (mainland) 2017 Vietnam 2017

Rate

6.51

22425.00

Rate

6.76

22370.09

Appendix C

26

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