Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview

Page 1

Net Lease Investment Services

Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview

Fall 2013


Big Picture Update Limited Availability Driving Action for New Net Lease Property Types Investment activity surged at the close of last year. The looming impact of tax changes brought many sellers back into the market— While Walgreen’s or McDonald’s might still be at the top of most looking to cash out of their investments before new tax hikes kicked in wish lists, more buyers are seeking net lease investment of any either at the federal or state level (or both). Since that time, however, type. This is fueling the rise of interest in a slew of retail types for investment activity has fallen by roughly 25% and kept a relatively which there was only minimal net lease activity just a few years ago. steady pace. The challenge for nearly all asset classes has been the This range from health clubs to other freestanding restaurant types lack of available quality properties for sale. Though investors are outside of the fast food arena, but among the strongest growth has slowly ratcheting up their tolerance of risk, it still remains low. As been in the field of dollar stores and convenience stores. That is such, demand is highest for core assets regardless of the property why we have begun tracking trends for these property types starting type. In the office arena, this is CBD Class A office (preferably in with this issue and have forensically compiled gateway cities). For industrial product, it is historical stats for these asset classes going modern distribution space—typically single back a number of years. tenant and with long-term leases in place to While the investor top credit tenants (in other words, premium The rise in interest in dollar and convenience industrial net lease properties). In the retail emphasis may still be stores as a net lease investment types is all arena, this emphasis on security over yield about availability. With a shortage of quality security over risk, the has focused on trophy shopping centers… available assets in place for virtually every or premium net lease investment. Lastly, tolerance for risk class of net lease investment, these two multifamily product—which has seen the product types are continuing to see some of continues to increase greatest overall improvement in underlying the most aggressive expansion in the retail fundamentals of any commercial real estate as economic and world. We tracked over 1,800 new dollar asset class—has seen a surge in demand for stores that were opened in the United States retail fundamentals nearly all classes and types, with investment last year, with chains like Family Dollar, Dollar grade properties leading the way and valueimprove. General and Dollar Tree all averaging annual add product bringing up the rear. unit growth of 300 new stores or more. Dollar General alone opened about 600 stores last So where does that leave us in terms of year and should close 2013 with about 635 new locations—in other net lease investments? Obviously, a continued investor focus on words, typically two new store openings each day this year. They security over yield is bound to put these assets firmly in the sights have been on a 600 new store annual pace going on three years now of buyers. The challenge, of course, has been in finding available and expect a similar level of growth in 2014. We estimate just over quality product. The gold standard still remains drug store and half of those to be in freestanding retail buildings—in other words, fast food properties with long-term corporate leases in place to the about 350 new net lease opportunities annually from just one user strongest chains. The reason is simple; most drug store and fast alone. Dollar General tends to look for space ranging from 7,500 food chains typically operate with longer lease terms—nearly all to 12,000 square feet and their leases tend to be 15-year deals. of the major drug store chains tend to work with 25-year deals to Family Dollar hasn’t been far behind and will close this year with as start. The same is true of most major fast food players, but there many as 500 new locations. They typically work with ten-year deals is more divergence here—particularly when one takes into account and space in the 10,000 square foot range. the differences between franchisees and corporate users as well as some differences in place between local and regional chains. If lease terms are the driving force behind investor demand (and they largely are), it is only natural that the net lease property type next on the investor food chain are automotive retail buildings. This is because so many of the national chains operate in leases of 15 years or more. One could continue to follow this logic and make the assumption that freestanding retail buildings with shorter lease terms are not in much demand. But they would be wrong. While the investor emphasis may still be security over risk, the tolerance for risk continues to increase as economic and retail fundamentals improve.

Convenience store growth has also been explosive, thanks to industry giant 7 Eleven. They also tend to be a ten-year user and their current expansion has included both convenience store/gas station facilities as well as both standalone and inline retail only stores. Regardless, the chain has been averaging roughly 300 new stores annually for the last couple of years and has plans to keep this rate of growth in 2014. By comparison, though most drug store and fast food chains remain in growth mode, the numbers of new store openings pale by comparison. While restaurant growth is white hot nationally, much of it is being driven by fast casual players who, more often than not, opt for inline space at multitenant centers. And so while we estimate that deal activity for the traditional net lease property types that we track (single tenant automotive, drug stores and fast food) will close 2013 down roughly 20% to 25% from the levels of activity that we saw last year, overall net lease investment is up. Because of the shorter lease terms in place,

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2


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013 occupancy growth for most of the past six years; discounters and off-price concepts. Dollar stores certainly fall into this category, but this also includes everything from Big Lots to Costco to grocery chains like Grocery Outlet. And it should come as no surprise that chains would want to straddle both the discount and grocery fence, because the other factor impacting retailer growth is e-commerce. Which is why the strongest levels of retail expansion now are coming from food users—whether grocery or restaurants. For the net lease marketplace, the issue of grocery expansion is a curious one as nearly all of the new concepts that are growing are using smaller Again, this all comes down to availability. Investor demand remains footprints and typically using junior box strong for all net lease investment types space. The few exceptions would be and not just from private investors, who continued Superstore growth from Target have historically been thought of as the and Walmart and a few regional players. Because of the minimal primary drivers for this marketplace. Meanwhile, many local or regional chains Because of the minimal property (particularly those that are unionized) property management management requirements of net lease are struggling and consolidating. Most requirements of net lease investment, these properties have of these users have tended to be active always been attractive to buyers looking with larger footprints of 50,000 square investment, these properties for stable income streams and minimal feet or more. For big box net lease headaches. But institutional players have always been attractive to investment, this means the smaller the continue to play a huge role in driving box the much higher the tenancy pool buyers looking for stable the marketplace as well. and less risk. The reverse is also true— the bigger the box, the bigger the risk, income streams and minimal We continue to see plenty of activity but also typically the bigger the yield. from some key institutional players. headaches. But institutional Cole Net Lease was bought in October players continue to play a by American Realty Capital Properties Is Industrial the Next Hot Thing? (ARCP) for $11.2 billion in a move that huge role in driving the makes ARCP the largest institutional What is interesting is that we are seeing marketplace as well. net-lease player with a portfolio of over a retail growth surge from many of the 3,700 properties. Prior to this, both players that we are used to seeing in our had been active in picking up portfolios malls—but it is in the form of industrial over the past year. Cole had a diverse buildings. Chains like Macy’s, Nordstrom, Walmart, Williams-Sonoma mix of mostly retail net lease in its portfolio before the sale, while and others are all rushing to keep up with a changing marketplace ARCP had a strong mix of fast food and dollar stores. Meanwhile, that has been dictated by Amazon. Amazon currently has about 55 we continue to see strong growth from players like Realty Income million square feet of distribution center space in the United States. (strong with industrial and convenience stores), National Retail By 2016, they plan to have 90 million square feet. Nearly all of Properties (convenience stores), W.P. Carey (all retail) and others. this has been done via build-to-suits as these properties tend to be All of these players have helped to boost demand and keep deals extremely unique. It is not uncommon for a building that costs $40 flowing. We anticipate that while an interest rate increase in 2014 to $60 per square foot to build to feature $100 per square foot or may have some short-term impact on deal flow—particularly from more in tenant improvement upgrades for the automation systems private investors—that the pipeline from institutional players will required for e-commerce fulfillment. Meanwhile, we are increasingly only be minimally impacted. seeing retailers inking deals for industrial buildings well above the 500,000 square foot mark that can serve both as e-commerce fulfillment and local distribution centers. This trend is only going Junior Boxes Reign Supreme as Retailers Shrink Footprints and to escalate in the coming years—we anticipate that e-commerce Store Counts related industrial could account for as much as 70 million square feet of occupancy growth in the next three years. Ironically, we now see growth in the retailer world limited by two big picture factors. The first is the ongoing subpar performance The driving force has been Amazon’s push to create same day of the economy. It is getting better each year but middle class delivery capabilities, which they are going to start rolling out on a consumers are still in frugality mode. Meanwhile, while the luxury market by market basis in the next year. Retailers understand that shopper is back and luxury retailers are also back in conservative this could be a lights out game changer and are rushing to meet growth mode. That leaves us with the group that has been driving that challenge. We have yet to see a significant uptick in demand for these new asset classes are typically viewed with more risk and have cap rates that reflect that. While we are still seeing prime McDonald’s, Chick Fil-A, CVS or Walgreen’s properties (we would typically define prime for drug store or fast food properties as ideal, urban locations in relatively new construction with long-term leases in place) trading in the 5% or less cap rate range, the equivalent gold standard for dollar stores (new, rural locations in areas with limited competition and long-term leases in place) to Family Dollar or Dollar General are still usually averaging in the 7.0% range.

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Big Picture Update Continued question is whether we will see these as early as February or as late as July. Policy issues continue to hang over the economy and reduce economic output. It is unclear if we will see another political dogfight in January/February of 2014 as the issues of government funding and the debt ceiling come back to the forefront, but the possibility of another ugly, protracted debate are high. Regardless, perhaps the most telling recent economic indicator of all is that Of course, in the meantime, FedEx and UPS have continued to of personal income growth. The Census Bureau’s September 2013 arguably benefit the most from all of this and that is why they remain numbers indicated a strong 0.5% growth in personal income for the gold standard for industrial net lease investment. While overall the second month in a row. Numbers have been slightly positive industrial net lease pricing nationally has averaged in the $40 to since February of this year. Assuming this trend continues, it will $50 range, these facilities have regularly sustain the ongoing housing economy commanded up to $250 per square foot and it will also eventually translate into or more. One question hanging over the improved consumer spending totals. The key question ahead is marketplace is whether Amazon may be In other words, this is one of the final creating a massive distribution network missing pieces of economic recovery and whether continued strong not just to deliver the goods they sell if it continues, the Fed will be boosting investor demand will be on a same day basis, but whether their interest rates before inflation starts to ultimate goal might be to compete become an issue. While this may cause enough to offset the increased head-to-head with FedEx or UPS in the some short-term growing pains in the price of borrowing next year. delivery game. We wouldn’t rule anything investment world, it is ultimately great out, but we’ll believe that when we see it. news. An improved economy will also So long as the climb is not too translate into all of those other things that But what does all of this mean for the steep or too fast, we see ultimately are more important to income net lease investment world? We have streams than mere cap rates alone. Better pricing pressures to gently yet to see much in the way of activity retail sales, more secure tenancy, higher for pure e-commerce industrial space, impact the marketplace rents all will come as well. But pricing for but we expect this to happen. Nearly many net lease investments—particularly starting with the value-adds all of the action, so far, has been in the those deemed riskier—will likely flatten form of build-to-suits. Yet, users are still and properties with less stable somewhat. leasing most of this space as opposed to occupancy first. purchasing it. So far, the developers and The key question ahead is whether investors that have built these properties continued strong investor demand will have wanted to hold on to them. Terms be enough to offset the increased price vary depending on the users, but nearly of borrowing next year. We anticipate all of the deals we have tracked have been at least ten-year deals interest rates to start to climb by April. So long as the climb is not with 20-year leases not all that uncommon. The upside to these too steep or too fast, we see pricing pressures to gently impact the properties commanding top dollar is clear—a structure with a longmarketplace starting with the value-adds and properties with less term lease in place to Amazon would be viewed as bulletproof in stable occupancy first. The gold standards of net lease investment terms of credit and stability. The downside, of course, is that these (FedEx or UPS for industrial; CVS and Walgreens for drug stores; buildings are often so built out for specialty use that backfilling an McDonald’s, Chick Fil-A or In-N-Out for fast food) may not see eventual vacancy may prove to be daunting. Still, we think that we much of a difference at all. In general, however, we anticipate will eventually start to see more of these properties being brought that there will be a period of flat pricing overall—properties with to a marketplace hungry for product. While the immense size and weaker occupancy or other issues will bear the brunt of this while prices involved would rule out most private investors, there are highest-end product will likely still command top dollar. Look for plenty of institutional players that would be more than interested cap rates to remain relatively stable through the end of this year and that would pay top dollar under the right circumstances. Look and in Q1 2014. Once debt costs start to increase (we believe in for industrial net lease investment to heat up significantly in the Q2 2014), we anticipate these averages to go up slightly (again, with years ahead. a couple of key exceptions for strongest product). As for industrial smaller warehousing space for this need, but we will. The goal will be to get away from mega-distribution centers in the middle of the country (where every market may be a two to three day drive) and towards centers that can quickly get goods to the consumers. This will mean that many chains suddenly will need multiple warehousing locations near urban markets to fulfill this need.

net lease investment, look for institutional demand to climb and for e-commerce related industrial buildings to start to come into play. Looking Ahead Looking ahead to 2014, barring a completely unforeseen financial collapse, rising interest rates are pretty much a given. The only Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services

4


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013 National Drug Store Credit Rating Concept

Credit Rating

National Convenience Store Credit Rating Typical Footprint MIN SF

MAX SF

Typical Lease Term

Concept

Credit Rating

Typical Footprint MIN SF

MAX SF

Typical Lease Term

CVS

A2

12,000

18,000

25 Years

7-Eleven

AA-

2,000

3,000

10 Years

Fred's

B2

15,000

19,000

15 Years

Casey's

B1

3,000

4,500

10 Years

Rite Aid

D2

11,000

17,000

25 Years

Quiktrip

NR

4,000

50,000

10 Years

Walgreens

B1

12,000

17,000

25 Years

Sheetz

NR

5,000

7,000

10 Years

WaWa

B

3,000

4,000

10 Years

RaceTrack Petroleum

NR

5,000

6,000

10 Years

National Fast Food Credit Rating Concept

Credit Rating

Typical Footprint MIN SF

MAX SF

Typical Lease Term

Arby's

C1

2,000

3,000

20 Years

Burger King

C2

2,000

3,000

20 Years

Carl's Jr/Hardees

C2

2,000

3,000

20 Years

Checkers

NR

1,000

1,500

20 Years

Chick Fil-A

A

2,000

3,000

20 Years

Chipotle Mexican Grill

A

2,000

3,000

10 Years

Del Taco

NR

1,700

2,500

20 Years

In-N-Out

A

2,000

3,000

20 Years

Jack in the Box

C2

2,000

2,500

McDonald's

A

3,000

Panda Express

NR

Popeye's

National Automotive Retail Credit Rating Concept

Credit Rating

Typical Footprint MIN SF

MAX SF

Typical Lease Term

Advance Auto Parts

B2

6,000

8,000

15 Years

AutoZone

C1

5,000

8,000

15 Years

Bridgestone/ Firestone

NR

7,000

9,000

15 Years

CarMax

NR

20,000

40,000

20 Years

20 Years

Discount Tire Company

NR

7,000

8,000

10 Years

4,000

20 Years

Jiffy Lube

NR

1,000

2,500

10 Years

2,000

2,500

10 Years

Midas

NR

4,000

6,000

10 Years

NR

2,500

3,000

20 Years

Starbucks

A-

1,500

2,000

10 Years

National Tire & Battery

NR

4,000

9,000

20 Years

Steak N Shake

B

3,000

3,500

20 Years

B1

6,000

9,000

20 Years

Sonic Drive In

NR

1,500

2,000

20 Years

O'Reilly Auto Parts

Tim Hortons

NR

2,000

3,000

20 Years

Pep Boys

C2

5,000

10,000

15 Years

Wendy's

C1

3,000

4,000

20 Years

Tire Kingdon

NR

3,000

6,000

10 Years

2,000

3,000

20 Years

Tuffy Auto Service Center

NR

3,000

6,000

10 Years

White Castle

National Dollar Store Credit Rating Concept

Credit Rating

Typical Footprint MIN SF

MAX SF

Typical Lease Term

99 Cents Only

C2

15,000

20,000

10 Years

Dollar General

B1

9,000

12,000

15 Years

Dollar Tree

A2

8,000

15,000

10 Years

Family Dollar

B1

8,000

10,000

10 Years

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National Box Users Credit Rating Mid Boxes (40,000 SF - 79,999 SF)

National Box Users Credit Rating Junior Boxes (20,000 SF - 39,999 SF) Concept

24 Hour Fitness

Credit Rating

B

Typical Footprint MIN SF

MAX SF

15,000

25,000

Typical Lease Term

Concept

Credit Rating

Typical Footprint MIN SF

MAX SF

Typical Lease Term

10 Years

Academy Sports

C2

65,000

73,000

20 Years

Burlington Coat Factory

B-

60,000

80,000

10 Years

Alco

E1

25,000

30,000

10 Years

Aldi

NR

15,000

20,000

10 Years

Ashley Furniture

NR

30,000

40,000

10 Years

Dick's Sporting Goods

A1

50,000

80,000

10 Years

Bed Bath & Beyond

BBB+

20,000

40,000

10 Years

Giant Eagle

NR

50,000

70,000

20 Years

Best Buy

C1

30,000

40,000

10 Years

Harris Teeter

B1

30,000

60,000

20 Years

Big Lots

B2

25,000

35,000

10 Years

Hobby Lobby

A

50,000

70,000

15 Years

DSW

A2

18,000

23,000

10 Years

Kohl's

B2

65,000

90,000

20 Years

Fresh Market

A2

18,000

25,000

15 Years

Kroger

B1

50,000

75,000

20 Years

Gold's Gym

NR

10,000

45,000

10 Years

Marsh

E2

45,000

65,000

20 Years

HH Gregg

B2

25,000

45,000

15 Years

LA Fitness

NR

35,000

45,000

15 Years

Marshall's

A

30,000

35,000

10 Years

Michael's

B

15,000

25,000

10 Years

Nordstrom Rack

A-

35,000

45,000

10 Years

Office Depot/ Office Max

C2

20,000

25,000

10 Years

Orscheln Farm & House

NR

25,000

45,000

10 Years

PetSmart

BB+

12,000

20,000

10 Years

Planet Fitness

NR

18,000

27,000

10 Years

REI

B2

20,000

25,000

10 Years

Ross Dress for Less

B1

25,000

35,000

10 Years

Safeway

C1

45,000

90,000

20 Years

Sprouts Farmers Markets

B2

20,000

30,000

10 Years

Staples

B2

10,000

20,000

TJ Maxx

B1

25,000

Tractor Supply

B2

20,000

Trader Joe's

NR

15,000

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services

Piggly Wiggly

NR

25,000

65,000

20 Years

Price Chopper

NR

30,000

60,000

20 Years

Publix

A2

30,000

60,000

20 Years

Roundy's

D2

50,000

70,000

20 Years

Schnuck's

NR

45,000

55,000

20 Years

Sports Authority

B-

40,000

50,000

10 Years

Stater Brothers

D1

40,000

50,000

20 Years

Whole Foods

A1

35,000

40,000

20 Years

Winn Dixie

NR

40,000

50,000

20 Years

National Box Users Credit Rating Mega Boxes (80,000 SF or more) Concept

Credit Rating

Typical Footprint

Typical Lease Term

MIN SF

MAX SF

B

85,000

125,000

20 Years

Cabela's

A2

100,000

125,000

20 Years

Costco

B1

145,000

160,000

20 Years

Home Depot

A2

100,000

110,000

20 Years

Lifetime Fitness

NR

100,000

125,000

10 Years

Lowe's

B1

100,000

120,000

20 Years

Meijer

NR

180,000

210,000

20 Years

Menards

NR

100,000

130,000

20 Years

Sam's Club

AA

120,000

150,000

20 Years

Target

B1

85,000

150,000

20 Years

Walmart

A2

125,000

160,000

20 Years

Wegman's

BBB+

120,000

140,000

20 Years

10 Years

BJ's Wholesale Club

35,000

10 Years

27,000

15 Years

20,000

15 Years

6


Drug Store Retail Trends Top Drug Store Deals

Rite Aid New York, NY Price: $6,500,000 Cap Rate: 6.0%

• So far, we have been able to confirm 32 sales for Q3 2013. We anticipate that the final deal tally will be in the mid-40s. This compares to 43 deals in Q2 and 30 in Q1 (the year-to-date tally now stands at 105. Last year, we tracked a total of 175 deals. Our estimate is that we will close 2013 with total deal activity down from last year’s levels by about 20%. The limited availability of product remains the greatest challenge facing the marketplace. Investor demand remains extremely strong for drug store properties. • The national average price on the drug store deals we have tracked in Q3 2013 quarter was $367 per square foot. This compares to an average of $390 per square foot in Q2 and $366 per square foot exactly one year ago. These metrics, of course, only reflect what actually has sold. The general trend, however, is one of increasing pricing as economic and commercial real estate fundamentals continue to improve. The trend of rising prices will slow or flatten once we see interest rate hikes next year. • The average capitalization rate for deals that closed in Q3 2013 was 6.9%. This compares to an average of 6.8% in Q2 and a reading of 6.7% exactly one year ago. While this metric has been climbing, the primary factor behind this has been the larger number of Rite Aid locations that have been selling lately.

Walgreens North Miami, FL Price: $11,000,000 Cap Rate: 6.0%

• Typically we see CVS and Walgreen’s properties with long-term leases in place trading in the 5% to 6% range depending on other factors like quality of building, strength of location and/or market. While Rite Aid’s financial situation has improved slightly over the past year, they still have the weakest credit of the three. Most Rite Aid deals we see are trading in the 7% or higher range, with 8% being the norm in most markets. • Cap rates will likely increase by the final half of 2014 as interest rates rise, however, continued intense competition for drug store opportunities will mean less of an uptick for these properties—particularly first-tier options.

Single Tenant Drug Store Properties CVS Noblesville, IN Price: $8,465,603 Cap Rate: 6.1%

Single Tenant Drug Store Properties

Average Cap Rate & Sale Price&(PSF) Average Cap Rate Sale Trend Price (PSF) Trend 9%

$500 $450

8%

$400 $350

7%

$300 $250

6%

$200

Walgreen’s Los Angeles, CA Price: $13,600,000 Cap Rate: 5.3%

$150 5%

$100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cap Rate

Average Price PSF

Source: Cassidy Turley Northern California Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

Source: Cassidy Turley BT Commercial Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

7


Single Tenant Lease Single Tenant Net Net Lease Investment Overview 2013 Investment Overview Fall Fall 2013

National Single Tenant Drug Store Market US Northeast Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

CVS

1075 Broadway Street, Saugus, MA

14,693

02/2013

$9,361,000

$637

6.9%

Walgreens

30 W Ridge Pike, Limerick, PA

14,820

05/2013

$7,000,000

$472

6.4%

Rite Aid

4900 Broadway, New York, NY

9,200

05/2013

$6,500,000

$707

6.0%

Walgreens

1093 N. Main Street, Dayville, CT

14,820

02/2013

$6,420,000

$433

6.0%

Rite Aid

869 2nd Avenue, Troy, NY

14,673

05/2013

$6,175,000

$421

8.9%

CVS

3016 Route 940, Mount Pocono, PA

13,225

09/2013

$5,100,000

$386

7.1%

CVS

1321 Allegheny Street, Jersey Shore, PA

10,125

03/2013

$3,800,000

$375

6.7%

Rite Aid

331 Main Street, Nashua, NH

15,086

02/2013

$3,262,533

$216

8.5%

Rite Aid

2501 Saw Mill Boulevard, Pittsburgh, PA

10,908

01/2013

$3,139,752

$288

10.9%

Rite Aid

78 N. Broad Street, Norwich, NY

10,908

01/2013

$2,555,000

$234

9.0%

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Drug Store Market US Southern Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property Walgreens

15050 Biscayne Boulevard, North Miami, FL

14,550

03/2013

$11,000,000

$756

6.0%

Walgreens

3188 Highway 278 NW, Covington, GA

14,820

02/2013

$8,075,000

$545

6.3%

CVS

4001 W. William Cannon Drive, Austin, TX

12,900

07/2013

$7,429,250

$576

5.2%

CVS

10000 Jefferson Davis Parkway, Fredericksburg, VA

12,900

02/2013

$6,970,000

$540

6.5%

Walgreens

231 E. Dixon Boulevard, Shelby, NC

14,820

06/2013

$6,875,100

$464

5.9%

Walgreens

3028 Clairmont Avenue, Birmingham, AL

13,076

04/2013

$6,829,270

$522

5.8%

Walgreens

2427 Springs Road NE, Hickory, NC

14,820

02/2013

$6,796,875

$459

6.4%

CVS

24795 Pinebrook Road, Chantilly, VA

12,840

08/2013

$6,700,000

$522

5.8%

CVS

1820 US Highway 1, Rockledge, FL

11,970

06/2013

$6,700,000

$560

6.0%

Rite Aid

2005 Maple Street, Rome, GA

14,673

06/2013

$5,152,100

$351

8.0%

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Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013

National Single Tenant Drug Store Market US Midwest Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Walgreens

1050 Waukegan Road, Northbrook, IL

14,500

05/2013

$11,779,661

$812

5.9%

Walgreens

1145 Main Street, Antioch, IL

14,820

03/2013

$8,607,231

$581

6.7%

CVS

14575 Mundy Drive, Noblesville, IN

12,900

01/2013

$8,465,603

$656

6.1%

Walgreens

985 N. Arlington Avenue, Indianapolis, IN

14,490

04/2013

$7,517,355

$519

6.1%

Walgreens

7045 S. Pulaski Rd, Chicago, IL

12,329

09/2013

$6,000,000

$487

6.8%

Walgreens

419 E. Michigan Avenue, Ypsilanti, MI

13,650

01/2013

$5,600,000

$410

6.4%

Rite Aid

3362 Navarre Avenue, Oregon, OH

14,565

06/2013

$5,585,000

$383

8.5%

Walgreens

6320 E. Main Street, Reynoldsburg, OH

15,120

06/2013

$5,400,000

$357

7.9%

Walgreens

7864 Hamilton Avenue, Cincinnati, OH

17,110

05/2013

$5,097,744

$298

6.7%

CVS

30920 A Southfield Road, Southfield, MI

13,314

06/2013

$4,758,000

$357

5.9%

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Drug Store Market US West Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property Walgreens

1050 N. Highlands Avenue, Los Angeles, CA

13,387

05/2013

$13,600,000

$1,016

5.3%

Walgreens

718 91st Street, Lake Stevens, WA

15,361

04/2013

$9,294,605

$605

6.0%

Walgreens

9800 S. Estrella Parkway, Goodyear, AZ

14,820

06/2013

$9,094,000

$614

5.8%

Walgreens

495 E. Holt Avenue, Pomona, CA

13,680

04/2013

$8,250,000

$603

5.9%

CVS

4990 S. Arizona Avenue, Chandler, AZ

13,013

07/2013

$7,913,500

$608

6.0%

Walgreens

28516 N. El Mirage Road, Peoria, AZ

14,820

03/2013

$7,600,000

$513

6.3%

Rite Aid

39155 Washington Street, Palm Desert, CA

17,272

08/2013

$7,150,000

$414

7.3%

Walgreens

750 N. Virginia Street, Reno, NV

15,067

08/2013

$6,500,000

$431

6.0%

Rite Aid

17615 140th Ave SE, Renton, WA

16,280

07/2013

$6,645,000

$408

8.4%

Walgreens

10601 E. Alameda Avenue, Aurora, CO

14,783

10/2013

$5,833,800

$395

6.0%

Cassidy www.cassidyturley.com Turley Net Lease Investment Services

9


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013 Fast Food Retail Trends Top Fast Food Deals

McDonald’s Melville, NY Price: $3,025,000 Cap Rate: 4.4%

• So far, we have been able to confirm 38 sales for Q3 2013. We anticipate that the final deal tally will be in the low 50s. This compares to 57 deals in Q2 and 31 in Q1 (the year-to-date tally now stands at 126. Last year, we tracked a total of 213 deals. Our estimate is that we will close 2013 with total deal activity down from last year’s levels by about 15%. The limited availability of product remains the greatest challenge facing the marketplace. Investor demand remains extremely strong for fast food properties. • The national average price on the fast food deals we tracked in Q3 2013 was $441 per square foot. This compares to an average of $455 per square foot in Q2 and $401 per square foot exactly one year ago. These metrics, of course, only reflect what actually has sold. The general trend, however, is one of increasing pricing as economic and commercial real estate fundamentals continue to improve. The trend of rising prices will slow or flatten once we see interest rate hikes next year. • The average capitalization rate for deals that closed in Q3 2013 was 6.9%. This compares to an average of 6.5% in Q2 and a reading of 7.0% exactly one year ago.

Taco Bell Pensacola, FL Price: $2,700,000 Cap Rate: 6.5%

• In general, we are seeing first-tier fast food properties moving with cap rates below the 6% mark nationally, though we have seen some top quality assets (great location in strong market) with the most desirable long-term tenancy in place (McDonald’s., Chick fil-A, In-N-Out, etc.) trade with caps heading into the 4% range. Second-tier fast food properties are averaging in the 6% - 8% rate nationally with some regional variations based upon the strength of the local marketplace. Third-tier and/or value-add fast food properties are generally trading with cap rates above the 8% mark everywhere, with triple digit caps not uncommon in weaker trade areas. • Cap rates will likely increase by the final half of 2014 as interest rates rise, however, continued intense competition for first-tier fast food opportunities will mean less of an uptick for these properties.

Single Tenant Fast Food Properties Burger King Chicago, IL Price: $2,300,000 Cap Rate: 6.5%

Single Tenant Fast Food Properties

Average Cap Rate & Sale Price&(PSF) Average Cap Rate Sale Trend Price (PSF) Trend 10%

$600 $550

9%

$500 8%

$450 $400

7%

$350

6%

$300

Carl’s Jr.

5%

Redondo Beach, CA Price: $3,200,000 Cap Rate: 4.5%

4%

$250 $200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cap Rate

Average Price PSF

Source: Cassidy Turley Northern California Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

Cassidy www.cassidyturley.com Turley Net Lease Investment Services

Source: Cassidy Turley BT Commercial Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics 10


National Single Tenant Fast Food Market US Northeast Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

McDonald's

729 Walt Whitman Road, Melville, NY

2,317

03/2013

$3,025,000

$1,306

4.4%

Taco Bell

1050 2nd Street, Manchester, NH

3,378

02/2013

$2,297,800

$680

N/A

Burger King

133 Macy Street, Amexbury, MA

4,873

07/2013

$2,234,394

$459

N/A

Taco Bell

13609 Crayton Boulevard, Hagerstown, MD

2,675

08/2013

$1,824,795

$682

6.6%

Chipotle

3580 Horizon Boulevard, Trevose, PA

2,193

03/2013

$1,800,000

$821

5.5%

McDonald's

174 Hoosick St, Troy, NY

3,915

01/2013

$1,579,411

$403

4.1%

Five Guys Burgers & Fries

720 Loucks Rd, York, PA

2,715

04/2013

$1,385,000

$510

5.6%

Burger King

330 Pompton Avenue, Cedar Grove, NJ

2,307

05/2013

$995,000

$431

6.0%

Taco Bell

1922 Empire Boulevard, Webster, NY

2,220

06/2013

$700,000

$315

8.1%

KFC

451 Foxon Boulevard, New Haven, CT

2841

06/2013

$625,000

$220

4.6%

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Fast Food Market US Southern Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property McDonald's

1302 W. Fairbanks Avenue, Winter Park, FL

4,150

04/2013

$2,926,800

$705

4.1%

Taco Bell

305 S. New Warrington Road, Pensacola, FL

2,782

06/2013

$2,700,000

$971

6.5%

McDonald's

1473 Hudson Bridge Road, Stockbridge, GA

4,504

05/2013

$2,555,000

$567

4.5%

McDonald's

822 Highway 17 N., Little River, SC

4,623

06/2013

$2,385,000

$516

4.2%

McDonald's

9414 W. Northlake West Drive, Charlotte, NC

4,300

08/2013

$2,320,000

$540

4.5%

Bojangle's

7897 E. Brainerd Road, Chattanooga, TN

3,808

07/2013

$2,150,000

$565

7.8%

Wendy's

4849 Bill Gardner Parkway, Locust Grove, GA

3,300

02/2013

$2,020,000

$612

7.2%

Hardee's

4360 Atlanta Highway, Loganville, GA

2,726

06/2013

$2,016,000

$740

6.3%

Jack in the Box

1765 W. Mount Houston Road, Houston, TX

2,900

02/2013

$1,975,000

$681

6.5%

Wendy's

365 W. 78th Road, Hialeah, FL

3,183

07/2013

$1,845,000

$580

6.1%

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

11


Single Single Tenant Tenant Net Net Lease Lease Investment Investment Overview Overview Fall Fall 2013 2013

National Single Tenant Fast Food Market US Midwest Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Burger King

3141 S. Ashland Boulevard, Chicago, IL

2,897

07/2013

$2,300,000

$794

6.5%

Wendy's

1202 S. Jeffers Street, North Platte, NE

2,640

01/2013

$2,062,000

$781

7.9%

Culver's

501 Pingree Road, Crystal Lake, IL

4,587

01/2013

$1,990,000

$434

10.7%

Wendy's

3140 S. Rochester Road, Rochester Hills, MI

2,915

07/2013

$1,748,500

$600

8.0%

Hardee's/Green Burrito

4201 S. 11-159, Glen Carbon, IL

2,505

07/2013

$1,654,736

$661

6.3%

Burger King

1255 N. 21st Street, Newark, OH

3,500

06/2013

$1,610,000

$460

5.3%

Arby's

1501 E. Morgan Street, Kokomo, IN

3,276

04/2013

$1,494,212

$456

8.5%

Burger King

1510 N. Bridge Street, Yorkville, IL

2,500

05/2013

$1,400,000

$560

N/A

McDonald's

630 N. Route 83, Bensenville, IL

3,503

07/2013

$1,395,000

$398

5.3%

McDonald's

1617 Bartlett Avenue, Evansville, IN

3,900

02/2013

$1,200,000

$308

4.7%

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Fast Food Market US West Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property Carl's Jr.

2100 Artesia Boulevard, Redondo Beach, CA

2,739

02/2013

$3,200,000

$1,168

4.5%

Burger King

1964 N. Broadway, Santa Maria, CA

2,408

06/2013

$2,946,828

$1,224

5.1%

Carl's Jr./Green Burrito

222 N. Euclid Street, Fullerton, CA

7,348

02/2013

$2,710,000

$369

4.5%

Jack in the Box

1191 S. Mt. Vernon Avenue, Colton, CA

2,600

09/2013

$2,455,000

$944

5.5%

Burger King

6401 Balboa Avenue, San Diego, CA

4,078

04/2013

$2,330,000

$571

4.9%

Jack in the Box

770 Ramona Expressway, San Jacinto, CA

2,850

05/2013

$2,250,000

$789

5.1%

McDonald's

8556 Blue Diamond Road, Las Vegas, NV

3,736

10/2013

$2,183,908

$585

4.4%

Chipotle

1525 S. Yuma Palms Parkway, Yuma, AZ

4,200

04/2013

$2,040,000

$486

7.2%

Carl's Jr.

2211 S. Havana Street, Aurora, CO

3,024

02/2013

$1,750,000

$579

6.5%

Wendy's

1127 E. Florence Boulevard, Casa Grande, AZ

2,500

08/2013

$1,043,500

$417

5.8%

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

12


Dollar Store Retail Trends Top Dollar Store Deals

Dollar General Manchester, NH Price: $1,895,000 Cap Rate: 7.4%

• This is the first report in which we are including dollar stores as one of the net lease asset classes that we track. As a triple net investment, this product really has only come into its own in the last few years thanks to aggressive expansion from dollar store chains at a time in which there has been strong demand for net lease investments but a limited supply of other single-tenant retail asset types. Some have questioned whether demand for dollar stores will be as strong once the overall economy improves to near “normal” levels. However, a number of key demographic factors (including the widening income gap) and the continued frugality of U.S. consumers would seem to ensure that dollar store retailers will remain in demand for now. • The national average price on the dollar store deals we tracked in Q3 2013 was $157 per square foot. This compares to an average of $158 per square foot in Q2 and $140 per square foot exactly one year ago. These metrics, of course, only reflect what actually has sold. The general trend, however, is one of increasing pricing as economic and commercial real estate fundamentals continue to improve. The trend of rising prices will slow or flatten once we see interest rate hikes next year. • The average capitalization rate for deals that closed in Q3 2013 was 7.7%. This compares to an average of 7.6% in Q2 and a reading of 7.4% exactly one year ago. • Due to the fact that most new dollar store leases are ten year deals, we see higher caps here typically than what we see for longer term fast food or drug store deals—despite relatively solid credit from nearly all of the major players. Generally, dollar stores are perceived as being most stable in rural or tertiary markets, though strong locations within primary or secondary markets are also in high demand from investors.

Dollar General Fort Myers, FL Price: $1,956,603 Cap Rate: 7.0%

• Cap rates will likely increase by the final half of 2014 as interest rates rise, however, continued intense competition for first-tier fast food opportunities will mean less of an uptick for these properties.

Single Tenant Dollar Store Properties Single Tenant Dollar Store Properties

Family Dollar

Average Cap Rate & Sale Price&(PSF) Average Cap Rate Sale Trend Price (PSF) Trend

New Baltimore, MI Price: $1,519,000 Cap Rate: 7.7%

9%

$200

$175

8%

$150 7% $125 6%

$100

Dollar Tree Inglewood, CA Price: $3,525,000 Cap Rate: 6.3%

5%

$75 2010

2011

Cap Rate www.cassidyturley.com

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services

2012

2013

Average Price PSF

Source: Cassidy Turley Northern California Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

Source: Cassidy Turley BT Commercial Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

13


Single Tenant Lease Single Tenant Net Net Lease Investment Overview 2013 Investment Overview Fall Fall 2013

National Single Tenant Dollar Store Market US Northeast Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Dollar General

116 E. Center St, Manchester, CT

12,000

08/2013

$1,895,000

$158

7.4%

Dollar General

233 S. Bohemia Ave, Cecilton, MD

12,382

01/2013

$1,735,000

$140

7.4%

Dollar General

1406 N. High St, Millville, NJ

8,640

05/2013

$1,360,000

$157

8.0%

Dollar General

4402 State Route 981, Avonmore, PA

9,100

02/2013

$1,276,000

$140

7.2%

Family Dollar

4269 US Highway 11, De Kalb Junction, NY

8,000

02/2013

$1,042,700

$130

8.3%

Dollar General

557 Broad St, Waverly, NY

9,100

01/2013

$640,000

$70

8.4%

Dollar General

41 W. Main Street, Fonda, NY

6,494

08/2013

$590,000

$91

9.7%

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Dollar Store Market US Southern Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property Dollar General

3409 Dr. Martin Luther King Blvd, Fort Myers, FL

9,100

06/2013

$1,956,603

$215

7.0%

Fred's Super Dollar

5590 Barksdale Blvd, Bossier City, LA

16,799

06/2013

$1,920,000

$114

9.0%

Dollar General

2331 N. Highway 231, Panama City, FL

9,100

07/2013

$1,897,230

$208

6.5%

Family Dollar

951 Doyle Rd, Deltona, FL

9,600

05/2013

$1,700,000

$177

7.8%

Dollar General

15449 O'Neal Rd, Gulfport, MS

9,100

09/2013

$1,663,752

$183

7.0%

Dollar General

6134 Broad St, Douglasville, GA

9,100

04/2013

$1,570,000

$173

7.0%

Dollar General

13807 N. Main Street, Jacksonville, FL

9,026

04/2013

$1,546,730

$171

6.7%

Family Dollar

2711 Getwell Rd, Memphis, TN

8,320

01/2013

$1,495,954

$180

8.5%

Dollar General

9940 Route 643, Hurley, VA

12,480

05/2013

$1,482,581

$119

7.0%

Family Dollar

10747 Homestead Rd, Houston, TX

8,320

04/2013

$1,477,311

$178

8.1%

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

14


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013

National Single Tenant Dollar Store Market US Midwest Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Family Dollar

12299 S. Pulaski St, Alsip, IL

8,222

04/2013

$1,800,000

$219

9.6%

Family Dollar

37040 Green St, New Baltimore, MI

8,000

06/2013

$1,519,000

$190

7.7%

Family Dollar

225 W. Main St, Crosby, MN

9,500

07/2013

$1,150,112

$121

8.0%

Dollar General

226 S. Somonauk Rd, Cortland, IL

8,833

01/2013

$1,120,000

$127

7.1%

Dollar General

811 E. McDevitt Avenue, Jackson, MI

9,000

08/2013

$1,106,000

$123

8.0%

Dollar General

24199 1st Ave, Siren, WI

9,026

08/2013

$1,105,000

$122

7.7%

Dollar General

1001 W. Walnut Ave, Frankfort, IN

9,014

02/2013

$962,000

$107

8.0%

Family Dollar

8154 Main St, Birch Run, MI

9,500

07/2013

$958,878

$101

8.0%

Family Dollar

1432 S. Main St, Rockford, IL

9,180

08/2013

$855,000

$93

9.6%

Dollar General

12421 Hayes Street, Detroit, MI

13,478

08/2013

$841,500

$62

8.9%

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Dollar Store Market US West Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property Dollar Tree

811 N. La Brea Ave, Inglewood, CA

12,221

05/2013

$3,525,000

$288

6.3%

Dollar General

5090 S. Maryland Pkwy, Las Vegas, NV

12,380

10/2013

$3,267,815

$264

6.0%

Dollar Tree

1895 Howe Ave, Sacramento, CA

12,928

04/2013

$2,350,000

$182

6.9%

Dollar General

1335 W. Ajo Way, Tucson, AZ

9,100

05/2013

$1,790,000

$197

6.8%

Family Dollar

5167 E. Belmont Ave, Fresno, CA

8,320

04/2013

$1,620,000

$195

6.9%

Dollar General

1742 N. Ruthrauff Rd, Tucson, AZ

9,100

06/2013

$1,587,000

$174

7.2%

Family Dollar

300 N. Village Wy, Dewey, AZ

8,320

05/2013

$1,422,000

$171

7.9%

Family Dollar

1685 E. Cottonwood St, Cottonwood, AZ

9,180

07/2013

$1,410,000

$154

8.5%

Family Dollar

4915 E. Desert Inn Rd, Las Vegas, NV

10,187

04/2013

$1,206,000

$118

7.8%

Family Dollar

347 W. Carr Ave, Cripple Creek, CO

8,050

04/2013

$1,003,000

$125

8.0%

www.cassidyturley.com

15


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013 Single-Tenant Automotive Retail Trends Top Automotive Deals

• The average capitalization rate for deals that closed in Q3 2013 was 7.5%. This compares to an average of 7.9% in Q2 and a reading of 7.2% exactly one year ago.

Pep Boys Nashua, NH Sale Price: Cap Rate:

$4,734,756 7.6%

$3,800,000 6.8%

National Tire & Battery Countryside, IL Sale Price: Cap Rate:

• Because automotive leases tend to be shorter in length than the ones we see for drug stores or fast food—typically averaging 10 to 15-year terms, depending on the user—we see slightly higher cap rates in general for this asset class. • The gold standard for single-tenant automotive investment deals remain corporate leases to strong, national credit players like Jiffy Lube, Firestone, O’Reilly Automotive and Pep Boys. This is assuming, of course, that the location itself is a strong asset and that there is a long-term lease in place. Regardless, we continue to see strong investor demand even for properties leased by weaker credit tenants assuming other positive attributes are in place.

Firestone Baltimore, MD Sale Price: Cap Rate:

• The national average price on the automotive deals we tracked in Q3 2013 was $137 per square foot. This compares to an average of $133 per square foot in Q2 and $126 per square foot exactly one year ago. These metrics, of course, only reflect what actually has sold. The general trend has been one of pricing increases as underlying economic and retail real estate fundamentals have improved. The pace of these pricing increases, however, is likely to slow heading into 2014. Rising interest rates next year will eventually flatten pricing as the price of borrowing increases and cap rates climb.

$2,700,000 7.7%

• Cap rates will likely increase by the final half of 2014 as interest rates rise, however, continued intense competition for single-tenant automotive retail opportunities will mean less of an uptick for these properties—particularly first-tier options.

Single Tenant Automotive Properties Single Tenant Automotive Properties

Average Cap Rate & Sale Price&(PSF) Average Cap Rate Sale Trend Price (PSF) Trend 12%

$250

11% $200

10% 9%

$150

8% $100

7%

Meineke

6%

Costa Mesa, CA Price: $1,625,000 Cap Rate: 6.5%

5%

$50

4%

$0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cap Rate

Average Price PSF

Source: Cassidy Turley Northern California Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

16

Source: Cassidy Turley BT Commercial Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics


National Single Tenant Automotive Market US Northeast Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Pep Boys

274 Amherst Street, Nashua, NH

19,300

01/2013

$4,734,756

$245

7.6%

Pep Boys

331 Crooked Lane, King of Prussia, PA

10,000

08/2013

$1,500,000

$150

N/A

STS Tire & Auto Center

2150 Route 33, Hamilton, NJ

6,955

05/2013

$1,300,000

$187

N/A

Little Neck Auto Care Center

47 Little Neck Parkway, Little Neck, NY

3,500

04/2013

$1,200,000

$343

6.5%

Garden State Auto Medix

965 Rahway Avenue, Union, NJ

3,760

05/2013

$775,000

$206

N/A

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Automotive Market US Southern Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property Sears Auto Center

160 N. New Hope Road, Gastonia, NC

8,000

05/2013

$5,330,500

$666

N/A

Firestone

6581 Eastern Avenue, Baltimore, MD

8,500

01/2013

$3,800,000

$447

6.8%

Pep Boys

950 Hooks Street, Clermont, FL

14,360

06/2013

$3,300,000

$230

7.6%

Pep Boys

830 SE Military Dr, San Antonio, TX

22,737

04/2013

$2,635,000

$116

7.7%

Christian Brothers Automotive

22120 Highway 290, Cypress, TX

4,921

08/2013

$2,289,000

$465

7.3%

National Single Tenant Automotive Market US Midwest Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Firestone

590 E. Roosevelt Road, Lombard, IL

8,500

04/2013

$4,178,000

$492

6.8%

National Tire & Battery

9850 Joliet Road, Countryside, IL

11,142

03/2013

$2,700,000

$242

7.7%

Tire Discounters

1544 Georgesville Road, Columbus, OH

6,000

07/2013

$1,682,500

$280

8.2%

Advanced Auto Parts

1135 E. Division Street, Diamond, IL

6,125

02/2013

$1,639,100

$268

7.1%

Tire Discounters

960 S. Shannon Street, Van Wert, OH

7,000

06/2013

$1,506,860

$215

8.0%

National Single Tenant Automotive Market US West Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Ramona Tire

1488 E. 2nd Street, Beaumont, CA

4,990

07/2013

$2,495,000

$500

6.0%

Christian Brothers Auto

14755 E. Arapahoe Road, Aurora, CO

4,945

10/2013

$2,410,000

$487

7.0%

Jiffy Lube

4500 Clayton Street, Concord, CA

4,170

07/2013

$2,016,100

$483

6.3%

Meineke

2049 Harbor Boulevard, Costa Mesa, CA

5,431

05/2013

$1,625,000

$299

6.5%

Jiffy Lube

2517 S. El Camino Real, San Mateo, CA

4,060

06/2013

$1,580,000

$389

6.4%

Jiffy Lube

1209 N. Dysart Road, Avondale, AZ

2,134

10/2013

$1,310,000

$614

8.2%

Autozone

7659 E. Guadelupe Road, Mesa, AZ

5,399

04/2013

$850,000

$157

5.9%

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

17


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013 Top Gas Station / Convenience Store Deals

7-Eleven San Diego, CA Price: $3,700,000 Cap Rate: 5.1%

Gas Station / Convenience Store Trends • The national average price on the convenience store/gas station deals we tracked in Q3 2013 was $662 per square foot. This compares to an average of $702 per square foot in Q2 and $638 per square foot exactly one year ago. These metrics, of course, only reflect what actually has sold. There are also large disparities in pricing depending upon geography both in terms of local market pricing, but also in terms of urban versus suburban or rural pricing. It is not uncommon for deals above $1,000 per square foot in urban markets. The general trend, however, is one of increasing pricing as economic and commercial real estate fundamentals continue to improve. The trend of rising prices will slow or flatten once we see interest rate hikes next year. • Deal activity this year has been extremely strong in the southeastern United States with robust trading activity in both the Florida and Texas markets. California, Arizona and Nevada are the western markets that have seen the most trading activity so far in 2013. • The average capitalization rate for deals that closed in Q3 2013 was 5.9%. This compares to an average of 6.0% in Q2 and a reading of 6.6% exactly one year ago.

7-Eleven Sunrise, FL Price: $4,775,000 Cap Rate: 5.3%

• Cap rates for convenience store/gas stations have consistently averaged lowest for corporate owned locations, particularly for 7 Elevens and those of major chain operators, regardless of the banner they operate under. Individual franchises, on the other hand, are largely a matter of individual credit and length of remaining lease. • Cap rates will likely increase by the final half of 2014 as interest rates rise, however, continued intense competition for first-tier fast food opportunities will mean less of an uptick for these properties.

Single Tenant Gas Station/Convenience Store Single Properties Tenant Gas Station / Convenience Store Properties Average Cap Rate & Sale Price&(PSF) Average Cap Rate Sale Trend Price (PSF) Trend 10%

BP Pittsburgh, PA Price: $1,675,000 Cap Rate: 5.3%

$800

9% $700 8% $600

7% 6%

$500 5% 4%

$400 2010

2011

2012

Cap Rate

2013

Average Price PSF

Kwik Trip Baraboo, WI Price: $1,053,000 Cap Rate: 10.0%

Cassidy www.cassidyturley.com Turley Net Lease Investment Services

Source: Cassidy Turley Northern California Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics Source: Cassidy Turley BT Commercial Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

18


National Single Tenant Gas Station / Convenience Store Market US Northeast Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Mobil

2001 Barlow Ave, Bronx, NY

1,941

07/2013

$6,350,000

$3,272

N/A

Mobil

2474 Flatbush Ave, Brookkyn, NY

2,108

10/2013

$3,500,000

$1,660

N/A

7-Eleven

175 W. Sunrise Hwy, Lindenhurst, NY

2,640

06/2013

$3,000,000

$1,136

5.6%

Sheetz

809 E, Main St, Girard, PA

6,483

08/2013

$2,400,000

$370

6.0%

Mobil

1501 5th Ave, Bay Shore, NY

1,453

02/2013

$2,100,000

$1,445

N/A

Exxon

75 Route 17, Ramsey, NJ

4,102

05/2013

$2,030,293

$495

N/A

BP

2269 Noblestown Rd, Pittsburgh, PA

2,186

05/2013

$1,675,000

$766

5.3%

BP

8136 Ohio River Blvd, Pittsburgh, PA

2,660

01/2013

$1,480,000

$556

5.9%

Shell

103 Taunton Rd, Medford, NJ

1,305

01/2013

$1,025,000

$785

11.0%

Pik Qwik

138 Main St, Thomaston, ME

2,274

09/2013

$550,000

$242

12.0%

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Gas Station / Convenience Store Market US Southern Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property Quiktrip

9020 S. Tryon Rd, Charlotte, NC

4,527

03/2013

$4,799,000

$1,060

7.3%

7-Eleven

9998 Sunset Strip, Sunrise, FL

5,576

04/2013

$4,775,000

$856

5.3%

WaWa

8049 E. Colonial Dr, Oralndo, FL

5,636

06/2013

$2,844,827

$505

5.8%

Sunoco

600 S. Courtenay Pkwy, Merritt Island, FL

2,353

04/2013

$2,809,105

$1,194

7.5%

Exxon

3501 Grapevine Mills Pkwy, Grapevine, TX

4,297

07/2013

$2,713,846

$632

6.5%

7-Eleven

1701 State Highway 276, Rockwell, TX

3,000

03/2013

$2,330,000

$777

5.7%

Circle K

1801 S. Tamiani Tr, Sarasota, FL

4,121

09/2013

$2,325,000

$564

5.9%

7-Eleven

6340 Mechanicsville Tpke, Mechanicsville, VA

3,162

06/2013

$2,243,000

$709

6.0%

Exxon

1101 Annapolis Rd, Odenton, MD

2,230

05/2013

$1,570,500

$704

5.4%

BP

4592 N. Valdosta Blvd, Valdosta, GA

3,000

02/2013

$1,120,000

$373

8.8%

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

19


Single Single Tenant Tenant Net Net Lease Lease Investment Investment Overview Overview Fall Fall 2013 2013

National Single Tenant Gas Station / Convenience Store Market US Midwest Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

7-Eleven

5402 E. Superior Dr, Duluth, MN

1,309

08/2013

$2,200,000

$1,681

N/A

SuperAmerica

7525 N. Brooklyn Blvd, Monneapolis, MN

5,456

05/2013

$2,144,848

$393

N/A

7-Eleven

26 W. Main St, Lexington, OH

2,700

04/2013

$2,040,000

$756

5.9%

BP

20420 Chagrin Blvd, Shaker Heights, OH

2,827

05/2013

$1,948,625

$689

N/A

BP

1201 Omniplex Dr, Cincinnati, OH

2,262

05/2013

$1,865,000

$824

N/A

Kwik Trip

602 W. Pine St, baraboo, WI

3,254

02/2013

$1,053,000

$324

10.0%

7-Eleven

11202 Midland Blvd, St. Louis, MO

2,640

09/2013

$956,760

$362

7.5%

7-Eleven

2425 S. Big Bend Blvd, St. Louis, MO

2,460

03/2013

$800,000

$325

5.8%

White Hen Pantry

210 W. Fullerton Ave, Addison, IL

2,520

02/2013

$405,000

$161

8.0%

Kum & Go

1401 Court St, Sioux City, IA

2,625

05/2013

$177,810

$68

8.4%

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Gas Station / Convenience Store Market US West Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property 7-Eleven

7807 Balboa Ave, San Diego, CA

2,200

03/2013

$3,700,000

$1,682

5.1%

7-Eleven

8925 S. Las Vegas Blvd, Las Vegas, NV

3,000

05/2013

$3,000,000

$1,000

6.8%

Shell

26721 Rancho Pkwy, Lake Forest, CA

4,000

07/2013

$2,915,000

$729

5.0%

7-Eleven

11945 Peoria St, Henderson, CO

3,000

09/2013

$2,150,000

$717

5.6%

7-Eleven

2471 S. 7200 W, Salt Lake City, UT

3,000

08/2013

$2,025,000

$675

5.7%

Arco

18025 Magnolia St, Fountain Valley, CA

1,246

03/2013

$1,850,000

$1,485

3.2%

Shell

1810 Main St, Colorado Springs, CO

3,000

06/2013

$1,730,000

$577

7.3%

7-Eleven

4500 NE St, Johns Rd, Vancouver, WA

3,889

04/2013

$1,565,000

$402

5.8%

Circle K

5685 S. Eastern Ave, Las Vegas, NV

2,358

04/2013

$1,450,000

$615

5.5%

Circle K

965 W. Baseline Rd, Tempe, AZ

2,781

02/2013

$1,107,700

$398

6.5%

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

20


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013 Big Box Retail Trends—Junior Box Properties (20,000 – 39,999 SF)

Big Box Retail Trends—Mid-Box Properties (40,000 – 79,999 SF)

• The national average price on the junior box deals we tracked in Q3 2013 was $148 per square foot. This compares to an average of $118 per square foot in Q2 and $105 per square foot exactly one year ago. These metrics, of course, only reflect what actually has sold. The general trend, however, is one of increasing pricing as economic and commercial real estate fundamentals continue to improve. The trend of rising prices will slow or flatten once we see interest rate hikes next year.

• The average price on the mid-box deals we tracked in Q3 2013 was $131 per square foot. This compares to an average of $122 per square foot during Q2 a metric of $140 per square foot exactly one year ago. The general trend has been one of pricing generally holding its own with Class A space posting increases while Class B and C properties continue to struggle with a competitive environment. Expected interest rate hikes next year will likely have a negative impact on pricing as the cost of borrowing increases.

• Junior boxes remain the strongest segment of the big box market, simply because they have the largest potential tenant pool and we continue to see aggressive expansion from key users such as smaller format grocery, off-price apparel and discounters. We expect this trend to continue as larger box users continue to shrink formats—particularly those making the transition from mid-box floorplates to more nimble junior box footprints. • Virtually all of the big box vacancy overhang leftover from the early days of the recession has been backfilled in the 20,000 to 40,000 square foot range. This is certainly the case for Class A properties, where few vacancies remain, and demand from tenants is starting to spur development once again. • The average capitalization rate for deals that closed in Q3 2013 was 7.6%. This compares to an average of 7.5% in Q2 and a reading of 7.6% exactly one year ago. • Cap rates will likely increase by the final half of 2014 as interest rates rise, however, continued intense competition for first-tier opportunities (the best locations with long-term leases in place to the strongest national credit tenants) will mean less of an uptick for these properties.

ig Box Retail Properties unior Junior Boxes (20,000 to 40,000 SF) Box Retail Properties Average & Sale Price Average Cap Rate &Cap Sale Rate Price (PSF) Trend

(PSF)

• The average capitalization rate on mid-box deals that closed during the third quarter was 7.9%. This reflects a slight increase from the average cap rate of 7.5% posted in Q2, but a decrease from the 8.1% average that was in place one year ago. This number had been decreasing thanks to the fact that the pool of distressed mid-boxes had slowly been shrinking. However, the movement has been minimal with tenant credit remaining the primary determinant. • While most of the big box vacancy overhang leftover from the early days of the recession has been backfilled in the 40,000 to 80,000 square foot range throughout the nation’s Class A shopping centers, there remain issues for Class B and C space— particularly in tertiary or rural markets. • Cap rates will likely increase by the final half of 2014 as interest rates rise, however, continued intense competition for first-tier opportunities (the best locations with longterm leases in place to the strongest national credit tenants) will mean less of an uptick for these properties.

Big Box Retail Properties Mid-Boxes to 80,000 SF) Mid-Box(40,000 Retail Properties Average & Sale Price Average Cap Rate &Cap Sale Rate Price (PSF) Trend

10%

$250

9%

$200

(PSF)

12%

$200

11%

$175

10% 8%

$150

7%

$100

6%

$50

$150

9% $125 8% $100

7%

$75

6% 5%

$0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cap Rate

Average Price PSF

5%

$50 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cap Rate

Average Price PSF

Source: Cassidy Turley Northern California Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics Source: Cassidy Turley BT Commercial Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

www.cassidyturley.com

Source: Cassidy Turley BT Commercial Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

21


Big Box Retail Trends—Mega-Box Properties (80,000 SF +) • The average price on mega-box deals we tracked in Q3 2013 was $88 per square foot. This compares to last quarter’s average of $70 per square foot and a reading of $75 per square foot exactly one year ago. These metrics, of course, only reflect what actually has sold. The general trend has been one of pricing generally holding its own. Class A space has posted modest gains but Class B and C properties continue to struggle. Expected interest rate hikes next year will likely have a negative impact on pricing as the cost of borrowing increases. • Mega-box tenancy remains an issue impacting the volatility of this sector of the marketplace. At one end of the scale, we continue to see new Target and Walmart Supercenters being developed and those properties are the gold standard of mega box net lease retail. On the other hand, department stores are generally focusing on building their discount concepts or e-commerce presence and huge questions remain as to the future health of major users like Sears and JCPenney. The pool of tenants is shrinking and though we are likely to see minor improvement from some user types, the overall trend is one of shrinking mega-box usage.

• The average capitalization rate on closed mega-box deals in Q3 2013 was 7.5%. This compares to an average cap rate of 6.2% last quarter and 7.3% exactly one year ago. These averages, however, are a bit misleading and mask the substantial bifurcation that remains in the marketplace. In general, top properties with the best occupancy are moving at 7.0% cap rates or below, but nearly everything else is trading above—often significantly above—that rate. The problem is that most troubled properties are not moving at all, which is why the average numbers appear to reflect cap rate compression when that is only modestly the case for top-tier assets. • Cap rates will likely increase by the final half of 2014 as interest rates rise, however, continued intense competition for first-tier opportunities (the best locations with long-term leases in place to the strongest national credit tenants) will mean less of an uptick for these properties.

• There are some larger user types that we expect to see more active in 2014 as the housing market continues to rebound. So long as personal income levels continue the current trend of moderate increases, the housing market should continue its recovery next year despite the fact that interest rates will likely tick up slightly. This will eventually translate into more demand for housing related retail like D-I-Y stores and furniture retailers who typically operate in this size range. However, the increases in rental demand will be modest at best before 2015.

Big Box Retail Properties Mid-Boxes (40,000 to 80,000 SF) Mega Retail Properties Average Cap RateBox & Sale Price (PSF) Trend

Average Cap Rate & Sale Price (PSF)

12%

$200

11%

$175

10%

$150

9% $125 8% $100

7%

$75

6% 5%

$50 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cap Rate

Average Price PSF

Source: Cassidy Turley BT Commercial Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services

22


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013

National Single Tenant Big Box Retail Market US Northeast Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Junior Boxes (20,000 - 40,000 SF) La-Z-Boy

233 Buckland Hills Dr, Manchester, CT

24,670

04/2013

$7,750,000

$314

8.3%

Crème de la Crème Learning Center

794 US Highway 202, Bridgewater, NJ

21,555

05/2013

$6,900,000

$320

8.6%

Maybrook Travel Center

125 Neelytown Rd, Montgomery, NY

37,889

07/2013

$5,750,000

$152

7.3%

Tractor Supply

2970 Route 940, Mount Pocono, PA

24,727

02/2013

$5,490,000

$222

7.1%

PetSmart

420 Home Dr, Pittsburgh, PA

26,040

05/2013

$3,458,997

$133

N/A

PetSmart/Bob's Discount Furniture

114 Commerce Wy, Woburn, MA

56,566

07/2013

$17,600,000

$311

N/A

ShopRite

709 Central Ave, Albany, NY

65,000

06/2013

$16,732,586

$257

N/A

LA Fitness

1600 E. Ridge Rd, Rochester, NY

45,000

09/2013

$10,300,000

$229

N/A

Toys R Us

2819 Kennedy Blvd, North Bergen, NJ

41,477

06/2013

$9,025,000

$218

8.0%

LA Fitness

3000 Lincoln Pl, Greensburg, PA

45,000

01/2013

$8,800,000

$196

N/A

Multiplex Cinemas

750 W. Sunrise Hwy, Valley Stream, NY

85,586

04/2013

$22,500,000

$263

N/A

BJ's Wholesale Club

5 Ward St, Revere, MA

120,224

09/2013

$16,400,000

$136

N/A

BJ's Wholesale Club

1785 Airport Rd, Allentown, PA

112,230

09/2013

$10,600,000

$94

8.1%

Costco

325 Promenade Blvd, Bridgewater, NJ

136,570

02/2013

$7,511,350

$55

N/A

Lowe's

1605 Macedon Pkwy, Macedon, NY

139,410

08/2013

$6,565,000

$47

N/A

Mid-Boxes (40,000 - 80,000 SF)

Mega-Boxes (80,000 SF +)

Top Big Box Retail Transactions

www.cassidyturley.com

LA-Z-BOY

Toys R Us

Manchester, CT Sale Price: $7,750,000 Cap Rate: 8.3%

North Bergen, NJ Sale Price: $9,025,000 Cap Rate: 8.0%

Tractor Supply

BJ’s Wholesale Club

Mount Pocono, PA Sale Price: $5,490,000 Cap Rate: 7.1%

Allentown, PA Sale Price: $10,600,000 Cap Rate: 8.1%

23


National Single Tenant Big Box Retail Market US Southern Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Junior Boxes (20,000 - 40,000 SF) Whole Foods

12150 Biscayne Blvd, North Miami, FL

36,000

07/2013

$19,800,000

$550

N/A

Staples

2121 Biscayne Blvd, Miami, FL

20,388

05/2013

$17,375,000

$852

5.3%

The Container Store

8460 Parkwood Boulevard, Plano, TX

23,286

05/2013

$7,950,000

$341

8.2%

Ashley Furniture

1201 S. Earl Rudder Frwy, College Station, TX

35,000

06/2013

$5,900,000

$169

8.5%

Fresh Market

3285 Robinhood Dr, Winston-Salem, NC

21,028

03/2013

$4,640,000

$221

7.3%

Academy Sports

455 Norman Rd, Valdosta, GA

71,680

05/2013

$9,790,000

$137

7.5%

Gander Mountain

1523 Vann Dr, Jackson, TN

65,000

09/2013

$8,000,000

$123

8.7%

Winn Dixie

4701 Center Point Rd, Pinson, AL

58,037

01/2013

$6,305,300

$109

7.8%

Hobby Lobby

2987 Watson Blvd, Warner Robins, GA

55,000

01/2013

$5,250,000

$95

8.4%

Belk

997 Bullsboro Dr, Newnan, GA

66,412

06/2013

$4,900,000

$74

N/A

Walmart

3274 Inner Perimeter Rd, Valdosta, GA

179,958

05/2013

$15,105,000

$84

6.2%

Reasor's

446 S. Elm St, Jenks, OK

81,014

09/2013

$11,400,000

$141

8.0%

Lowe's

1836 US Highway 78 E, Oxford, AL

135,197

07/2013

$11,250,000

$83

7.8%

Lowe's

2470 Whiskey Rd, Aiken, SC

135,197

08/2013

$10,600,000

$78

7.5%

Kohl's

1301 Beaver Creek Commons Dr, Apex, NC

101360

04/2013

$7,265,000

$72

6.4%

Mid-Boxes (40,000 - 80,000 SF)

Mega-Boxes (80,000 SF +)

Top Big Box Retail Transactions

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services

Staples

Academy Sports

Miami, FL Sale Price: $17,375,000 Cap Rate: 6.3%

Valdosta, GA Sale Price: $9,790,000 Cap Rate: 7.5%

Fresh Market

Lowe’s

Winston-Salem, NC Sale Price: $4,640,000 Cap Rate: 7.3%

Aiken, SC Sale Price: $10,600,000 Cap Rate: 7.5%

24


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013

National Single Tenant Big Box Retail Market US Midwest Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Junior Boxes (20,000 - 40,000 SF) Tractor Supply

1801 Milwaukee Ave, Burlington, WI

22,670

02/2013

$4,180,000

$184

7.2%

Best Buy

1600 Center Rd, Avon, OH

30,814

03/2013

$3,975,000

$129

6.5%

Gander Mountain

5114 W. Holiday Dr, Peoria, IL

31,080

09/2013

$3,575,000

$115

9.3%

Fresh Market

3033 S.Halsted St, Chicago, IL

20,500

01/2013

$3,500,000

$171

N/A

OfficeMax

2950 5th Ave S, Fort Dodge, IA

23,516

05/2013

$2,995,000

$127

N/A

Bank of America

510 N. Penn Ave, Independence, KS

25,962

06/2013

$600,000

$23

6.7%

Kittle's Factory Outlet

9810 Carney Dr, Fishers, IN

62,015

07/2013

$5,300,000

$85

8.5%

Cub Foods

350 McHenry Rd, Buffalo Grove, IL

56,192

05/2013

$4,100,000

$73

N/A

Econo Foods

1000 W. Sharon Ave, Houghton, MI

49,618

08/2013

$3,300,000

$67

8.5%

Big Lots

5112 Miller Rd, Flint, MI

40,000

06/2013

$2,287,500

$57

8.8%

Pamida

174 James Robertson Dr, Gladwin, MI

42,128

04/2013

$2,000,000

$47

10.8%

Home Depot

Otswego Plaza, Plainwell, MI

96,801

05/2013

$13,389,430

$138

6.2%

Kohl's

13900 Aklrich Ave S, Burnsville, MN

102,412

01/2013

$12,830,000

$125

6.3%

Kohl's

1400 Lawson Dr, Howell, MI

88,000

03/2013

$12,441,188

$141

6.8%

BJ's Wholesale Club

6924 Frank Ave NW, North Canton, OH

108532

02/2013

$10,771,900

$99

7.9%

K-Mart

1825 N. State Route 19, Fremont, OH

172655

05/2013

$4,150,000

$24

23.8%

Mid-Boxes (40,000 - 80,000 SF)

Mega-Boxes (80,000 SF +)

Top Big Box Retail Transactions

www.cassidyturley.com

Best Buy

Big Lots

Avon, OH Sale Price: $3,975,000 Cap Rate: 6.5%

Flint, MI Sale Price: $2,287,500 Cap Rate: 8.8%

Gander Mountain

Kohl’s

Peoria, IL Sale Price: $3,575,000 Cap Rate: 9.3%

Burnsville, MN Sale Price: $12,830,000 Cap Rate: 6.3%

25


National Single Tenant Big Box Retail Market US West Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Junior Boxes (20,000 - 40,000 SF) Office Depot

4900 25th Ave NE, Seattle, WA

29,691

07/2013

$13,744,690

$463

5.0%

Tractor Supply

1131 W. Pacheco Blvd, Los Banos, CA

21,680

03/2013

$5,500,000

$254

7.3%

Ralph's

950 N. La Brea Ave, Inglewood, CA

34,035

02/2013

$5,100,000

$150

5.4%

Big Lots

17510 N. 75th Ave, Glendale, AZ

34,827

01/2013

$5,001,500

$144

7.3%

Tractor Supply

8540 E. Eastridge Rd, Prescott Valley, AZ

22,000

08/2013

$3,807,634

$173

N/A

Whole Foods

230 Bay Pl, Oakland, CA

57,218

02/2013

$41,400,000

$724

N/A

Hobby Lobby

27200 Alicia Pkwy, Laguna Niguel, CA

77,867

09/2013

$15,100,000

$194

5.7%

Dick's Sporting Goods

1030 Green Acres Rd, Eugene, OR

60,122

03/2013

$13,725,000

$228

7.0%

Walmart Neighborhood Market

1189 E. March Ln, Stockton, CA

54,159

05/2013

$8,574,900

$158

6.0%

Room Store

555 N. Litchfield Rd, Goodyear, AZ

50,046

03/2013

$6,210,155

$124

N/A

Sam's Club

7817 Park Meadows Dr, Lone Tree, CO

129,715

09/2013

$17,617,000

$136

6.3%

Room Store

1661 S. Alma School Rd, Mesa, AZ

120,026

03/2013

$6,000,000

$50

10.4%

Fred Meyer's

10201 SE 240th St, Kent, WA

167,146

06/2013

$13,338,000

$80

N/A

Mid-Boxes (40,000 - 80,000 SF)

Mega-Boxes (80,000 SF +)

Top Big Box Retail Transactions

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services

Office Depot

Hobby Lobby

Seattle, WA Sale Price: $13,744,690 Cap Rate: 5.0%

Laguna Niguel, CA Sale Price: $15,100,000 Cap Rate: 5.7%

Ralph’s

Sam’s Club

Inglewood, CA Sale Price: $5,100,000 Cap Rate: 5.4%

Lone Tree, CO Sale Price: $17,617,000 Cap Rate: 6.3%

26


Industrial Investment Trends Industrial Investment Deals

Pearson Education Cranbury, NJ Price: $98,000,000 Cap Rate: 7.0%

• The average price on the deals we tracked in Q3 2013 was $49 per square foot. This compares to $48 per square foot in Q2 and $47 per square foot exactly one year ago. However, there can be a wide divergence of price depending upon the type of industrial space. Modern distribution space with long-term leases in place to top logistics users routinely trade well above the $100 per square foot mark in nearly every major market (we’ve tracked a couple of FedEx deals above $250 per square foot), but pricing for older commodity warehouse tends to fall well below these averages. • Pricing is on the upswing but this is being driven by modern distribution product. In many markets, older warehousing space is only now beginning to show signs of rental rate growth following years of declining and then flat rents. Fundamentals continue to recover at a rapid clip, with occupancy growth for the industrial sector far outpacing that of office or retail. However, much of this has been driven by e-commerce buildto-suits for users like Amazon. Regardless, vacancies are falling for older properties as well and rents are poised to grow. • While we anticipate the trend of rising prices to continue heading into 2014, the likelihood of increased interest rates by midyear might derail this trend. We anticipate that average metrics will slow or flatten, although modern distribution facilities will likely still post increases.

Mitsubishi Suwanee, GA Price: $38,000,000 Cap Rate: 5.8%

• We have yet to see many e-commerce related properties come to market, but these may well be the next hot commodity for investors. While these tend to be highly specialized buildings (it is not uncommon for structures that cost $40 to $60 per square foot to build to feature $100 per square foot or more in tenant improvements), they also tend to have long lease terms in place. • The average capitalization rate for deals that closed in Q3 2013 was 7.6%. This compares to an average of 7.3% in Q2 and a reading of 7.5% exactly one year ago. Cap rates will increase by the final half of 2014 as interest rates rise, however, modern distribution facilities will see less of an uptick.

Rubbermaid Kent, OH Price: $34,900,000 Cap Rate: 7.5%

Single Tenant Industrial Properties Average Cap Rate & Sale Price (PSF) Trend

FedEx San Diego, CA Price: $14,100,000 Cap Rate: 5.2%

Single Tenant Industrial Properties Average Cap Rate & Sale Price (PSF) Trend

10%

$90

9%

$75

8%

$60

7%

$45

6%

$30

5%

$15

4%

$0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cap Rate

Average Price PSF

Source: Cassidy Turley Northern California Research, Costar, Real Capital Analytics

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

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Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013

National Single Tenant Industrial Market US Northeast Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Pearson Education

258 Prospect Plains Rd, Cranbury, NJ

886,875

09/2013

$98,000,000

$111

7.0%

Barnes & Noble

1 Barnes & Noble Wy, Monroe Township, NJ

1,145,200

02/2013

$83,000,000

$72

7.5%

Mohawk Distribution Center

698 Route 46, Teterboro, NJ

616,992

06/2013

$81,000,000

$131

6.1%

BJ's Warehouse

309 Dulty's Ln, Burlington, NJ

633,436

07/2013

$43,250,000

$68

7.4%

Talbots

175 Kenneth Welch Dr, Lakeville, MA

555,000

05/2013

$36,743,057

$66

N/A

FedEx

456 Sullivan Ave, South Windsor, CT

224,061

01/2013

$32,200,000

$144

6.4%

Ollie's Bargain Market Distribution Center

3300 Espresso Wy, York, PA

603,000

03/2013

$31,671,000

$53

6.7%

Xpedx

261 River Rd, Clifton, NJ

230,953

02/2013

$26,811,000

$116

5.0%

Lehigh Group Distribution Center

2834 Schoeneck Rd, Macungie, PA

270,000

06/2013

$16,550,000

$61

6.5%

FedEx

550 Delancy St, Newark, NJ

52,000

07/2013

$15,000,000

$288

5.6%

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

National Single Tenant Industrial Market US Southern Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property United Natural Foods

17901 E. 40th Ave, Aurora, CO

553,757

09/2013

$46,350,000

$84

7.2%

Braun Medical

7400 Hazard Ave, Westminster, CA

258,506

04/2013

$26,700,000

$103

5.4%

FedEx

33104 25th Ave, Kettleman City, CA

84,927

06/2013

$21,466,000

$253

7.4%

Natural Selection Foods

3701 S. Avenue 3, Yuma, AZ

220,000

10/2013

$17,850,000

$81

8.0%

Watkins Sheperd Trucking

13827 Carmenita Rd, Santa Fe Springs, CA

206,030

08/2013

$15,025,000

$73

7.5%

PODS Enterprises

1650 N. Kraemer Blvd, Anaheim, CA

122,600

04/2013

$14,300,000

$117

6.5%

FedEx

1650 47th St, San Diego, CA

76,822

08/2013

$14,100,000

$184

5.2%

Internal Revenue Service

1973 Rulon White Blvd, Ogden, UT

100,000

05/2013

$12,625,000

$126

8.6%

Dimension One Spas

2611 Business Park Dr, Vista, CA

128,531

02/2013

$10,145,000

$79

10.0%

Raley's Distribution Center

3925 Seaport Boulevard, West Sacramento, CA

135,885

10/2013

$9,675,000

$71

10.2%

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

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National Single Tenant Industrial Market US Midwest Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

Quaker Oats

9101 Orly Dr, Indianapolis, IN

1,119,915

07/2013

$60,623,063

$54

N/A

Rubbermaid

212 Progress Blvd, Kent, OH

811,200

01/2013

$34,900,000

$43

7.5%

Sears Logistics Services

1600 N. Boudreau Rd, Manteno, IL

1,400,000

03/2013

$24,000,000

$17

N/A

Case New Holland Distribution Center

300 E. Pence Rd, Cameron, MO

500,000

06/2013

$23,500,000

$47

7.2%

Liz Claiborne

8741 Jacquemin Dr, West Chester, OH

601,065

08/2013

$21,000,000

$35

8.0%

Sears Logistics Services

901 Canterbury Rd, Shakopee, MN

1,100,000

09/2013

$17,000,000

$15

N/A

FedEx

4600 Poth Rd, Columbus, OH

217,627

04/2013

$16,675,000

$77

7.5%

Gannett

8751 N. Zachary Ln, Maple Grove, MN

192,924

03/2013

$14,400,000

$75

8.6%

FedEx

2900 SW Brookside Dr, Grimes, IA

186,088

03/2013

$11,400,000

$61

7.9%

Penda Corporation

2344 W. Wisconsin Dt, Portage, WI

272,000

01/2013

$9,965,789

$37

9.6%

National Single Tenant Industrial Market US West Region Select Major Sale Transactions Property

Total SF

Sale Date

Sale Price

Price PSF

Cap Rate

United Natural Foods

17901 E. 40th Ave, Aurora, CO

553,757

09/2013

$46,350,000

$84

7.2%

Braun Medical

7400 Hazard Ave, Westminster, CA

258,506

04/2013

$26,700,000

$103

5.4%

FedEx

33104 25th Ave, Kettleman City, CA

84,927

06/2013

$21,466,000

$253

7.4%

Natural Selection Foods

3701 S. Avenue 3, Yuma, AZ

220,000

10/2013

$17,850,000

$81

8.0%

Watkins Sheperd Trucking

13827 Carmenita Rd, Santa Fe Springs, CA

206,030

08/2013

$15,025,000

$73

7.5%

PODS Enterprises

1650 N. Kraemer Blvd, Anaheim, CA

122,600

04/2013

$14,300,000

$117

6.5%

FedEx

1650 47th St, San Diego, CA

76,822

08/2013

$14,100,000

$184

5.2%

Internal Revenue Service

1973 Rulon White Blvd, Ogden, UT

100,000

05/2013

$12,625,000

$126

8.6%

Dimension One Spas

2611 Business Park Dr, Vista, CA

128,531

02/2013

$10,145,000

$79

10.0%

Raley's Distribution Center

3925 Seaport Boulevard, West Sacramento, CA

135,885

10/2013

$9,675,000

$71

10.2%

Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services www.cassidyturley.com

29


Single Tenant Net Lease Investment Overview Fall 2013

Our Net Lease Services team understands the complexities and dynamics of the Net Lease marketplace. Our national platform is managed by an advisory committee composed of industry leaders from across the country. Please contact any of the following advisory committee members for more information on Cassidy Turley Net Lease Investment Services. Ric Russell San Francisco 415.781.8100 Ric.Russell@cassidyturley.com

Chuck Klein San Diego 858.546.5473 cklein@cassidyturley.com

Andy Bogardus San Francisco 415.677.0421 Andy.Bogardus@ cassidyturley.com

Doug Longyear San Francisco 415.677.0458 Doug.Longyear@cassidyturley.com

Visit www.cassidyturley.com for more information on the full range of Cassidy Turley commercial real estate services. Core Services

Real Estate

Practices and Specialties

Tenant Representation Project Leasing Property Management Project & Development Services Capital Markets - Debt Placement - Investment Sales - Note Sales - Structured Finance • Corporate Services - Facilities Management - Portfolio Administration - Project Management - Strategic Consulting - Transaction Management

• • • • •

• • • • • • • • •

• • • • •

Office Industrial Retail Multi-family Land

Auction Services Distressed Assets Financial Advisory Food and Beverage Golf and Resort Properties Government Contracting Government Services Healthcare Higher Education

About Cassidy Turley Cassidy Turley is a leading commercial real estate services provider with more than 3,600 professionals in more than 60 offices nationwide. The company represents a wide range of clients—from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies, from local non-profits to major institutions. The firm completed transactions valued at $22 billion in 2011, manages 455 million square feet on behalf of institutional, corporate and private clients and supports more than 28,000 domestic corporate services locations. Cassidy Turley serves owners, investors and tenants with a full spectrum of integrated commercial real estate services—including capital markets, tenant representation, corporate services, project leasing, property management, project and development services, and research and consulting. Cassidy Turley enhances its global service delivery outside of North America through a partnership with GVA, giving clients access to commercial real estate professionals in 65 international markets. Please visit www.cassidyturley.com for more information about Cassidy Turley. www.cassidyturley.com

• • • • • • • • • •

Hospitality Law Firm Life Sciences Location Advisory and Incentives Mission Critical Net Lease Not-for-profit Private Client Supply Chain Sustainability Services

For more information regarding this report, contact: Garrick Brown Director of Research San Francisco 916.329.1558 gbrown@ctbt.com

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