U.S. OfďŹ ce Trends Report 4th Quarter 2013
Contents
U.S. OfďŹ ce Sector Analysis........................................................................3-4 Investment Sales.........................................................................................5 Net Absorption by Metro............................................................................6-7 Vacancy Rates by Metro.............................................................................8-9 Asking Rents by Metro...........................................................................10-11 Inventory by Metro................................................................................12-13 Methodology..............................................................................................14
Kevin Thorpe Chief Economist 2101 L Street, NW, Ste. 700 Washington, DC 20037 Kevin.Thorpe@cassidyturley.com
Jennifer Edwards Research Manager 2101 L Street, NW, Ste. 700 Washington, DC 20037 Jennifer.Edwards@cassidyturley.com
2 | Cassidy Turley
U.S. Office Sector Analysis Economy The U.S. economy shook off October’s 16-day partial government shutdown and finished 2013 on a surprisingly strong note. Real GDP growth registered a healthy 4.1% in the third quarter of the year, and the latest data on business and consumer spending indicates GDP growth will again exceed 3% in the fourth quarter. Remember that GDP growth has averaged just a tick above 2% during most of this economic recovery, so the latest trends do represent a significant acceleration. On the jobs front, the latest data was also mostly good news. Despite a weak December 2013 job growth figure (likely an anomaly caused by unseasonably cold winter weather and one that is likely to be revised upwards next month), the U.S. economy created 2.2 million net new jobs in 2013. The unemployment rate declined from 7.9% at the beginning of the year to 6.7% at the end. Vital to the commercial real estate sector, office-using employment continues to accelerate. The U.S. created 721,000 officeusing jobs in 2013, up from 696,000 in 2012 and 570,000 in 2011. That said, it is worth noting that law firms, key office tenants in most major metros, continued to cut jobs in 2013 (a net decline of 1,300). But other job sectors such as professional and business services, energy, tech, and media remained in growth mode. The ADP survey revealed that job growth was broad-based across all industry sizes. Small businesses (with 1-49 employees) led the way, adding 835,000 nonfarm payrolls in 2013. Medium-sized companies (50-499) added 535,000 jobs, and large businesses (500+) added 498,000 jobs.
Market Indicators 4th Quarter 2013 Trend
2013 4Q
(from previous Qtr)
Net Absorption
15.6M
Vacancy
15.1%
Asking Rents
$22.00
Under Construction
57.1M
We also got a small dose of positive news, or at least, less terrible news, on the policy side of things. The Congress reached a budget deal in December of 2013 - the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013 - that will effectively keep the federal government funded through the fall of 2015. Although the deal did not address the long-term deficit challenges from ballooning entitlement programs, the accord did eliminate a portion of the sequestration cuts that were scheduled to occur in 2014 and 2015. As a result, fiscal policy (i.e., higher taxes and spending cuts which knocked 1.5 percentage points off of real GDP growth in 2013), will restrain growth in 2014 by an estimated 0.3% - far less of drag.
Office Sector Taking its cue from the economy, the U.S. office sector also picked up steam towards the end of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2013, U.S. office markets absorbed 15.6 million square feet (msf), up from the 15.3 msf absorbed in the third quarter. In total, the U.S. absorbed 51.6 msf of office space in 2013, slightly higher than the 50.1 msf absorbed in 2012. Vacancy rates in the fourth quarter fell 20 basis points (bps) to 15.1%. Vacancy is currently 220 bps lower than its recessionary-peak of 17.3%, but remains 120 bps higher than its historical average. Although the market fundamentals continue to slowly tighten, this is occurring at a much slower rate than in past recoveries. Job growth is no longer the issue. For instance, office-using job growth in 2013 was roughly the same as job growth in 2005 (real estate boom year), but net absorption in 2013 was 37 msf less. With another year of data under our belts, it is clear to see that the subpar demand in the current recovery directly reflects a shift in the way businesses are utilizing space (e.g., more people in less space, shared workstations, encouraging telecommuting). In our view, this is a trend that will continue into the foreseeable future, and one which will keep net growth in the office sector well below what one would normally expect during a recovery.
Office cont. U.S. Net Absorption vs. Vacancy
Net Absorption, Selected Markets 2013
24
16.5%
7.5 6.5
16.0%
12 8
15.5%
4
5.5 4.5
(msf)
3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5
Absorption Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
Q1 13
Q4 12
Q3 12
Q2 12
Q1 12
15.0% Q4 11
0
-0.5 -1.5
New York Dallas Houston San Jose-Silicon Atlanta Denver Boston-Cambridge Seattle Charlotte Chicago Phoenix Sacramento San Francisco Central NJ Baltimore Raleigh Minneapolis Tampa San Diego Saint Louis Orange County Washington, DC Indianapolis Kansas City Northern NJ Louisville Milwaukee Cincinnati Dayton Suburban MD San Mateo County Columbus Nashville Oakland-East Bay Suburban VA Los Angeles
(msf)
16
Vacancy Rate
20
Vacancy Rate Source: Cassidy Turley Research
cassidyturley.com | 3
U.S. Office Sector Analysis Developers are clearly savvy to the trend of shrinking square feet per worker, as new supply remains extremely lean. Just 33.3 msf of new office buildings delivered in 2013. Although that level is up from 24.6 msf in 2012, it is still about 50% below the norm. The lack of new supply has proven to be a more powerful force than has the lack of demand. In 2013, vacancy did register declines in 48 out of the 82 metros tracked. With vacancy declining in most areas of the country, rental rates are beginning to creep upward, albeit slowly. In the fourth quarter of 2013, average asking rents increased 10 cents from the previous quarter to $22.00 per square foot (psf). Office rents appreciated by 1.5% in 2013 compared to 2012. In terms of demand, the top 10 U.S. markets for 2013 were New York with 7.1 msf of net absorption, Dallas with 4.2 msf, Houston with 3.9 msf, San Jose/Silicon Valley with 2.4 msf, Atlanta with 2.3 msf, Denver with 1.9 msf, Boston with 1.7 msf, Seattle with 1.7 msf, Charlotte with 1.5 msf and Chicago registering 1.5 msf of absorption. The top 10 U.S. markets in terms of 2013 rent growth were San Francisco with average rents up 11.4%, New York up 9.5%, Denver up 7.8%, San Jose/Silicon Valley up 7.3%, Austin up 7.0%, Dallas, up 5.6%, Salt Lake City up 5.5%, San Mateo County up 4.9%, Oakland-East Bay up 4.4% and San Diego posting a 4.3% rent growth. Investments sales registered another solid recovery year. From Jan-Nov of 2013, sales of significant office buildings totaled $82.2 billion, up 29% from the same period a year ago. Even assuming a mediocre December (when the data rolls in), 2013 will exceed the sales volume of 2004 (year one of the last real estate boom) and will be close to the level reached in 2005. 2013 was also a strong year for price appreciation, with CBD asset values growing by 13% and suburban assets increasing by 7% compared to the previous year.
Outlook The stage is set, yet again, for the recovery to morph into something more robust. Given the strong economic data observed at the end of 2013, along with a small breakthrough with respect to fiscal policy, we are cautiously optimistic that 2014 will finally deliver a GDP growth number north of 3% and that job growth will accelerate. Demand for office space, as weak as it has been throughout the current recovery, has actually exceeded new supply for two straight years. The trend towards space efficiency will continue in 2014, but stronger job creation will keep demand above new supply for at least one more year. Assuming the current rate of absorption going forward, vacancy levels will decline to equilibrium in most markets by the midpoint of 2014. In half of the country – mostly in energy and tech markets – the pendulum has already shifted from a rent-declining tenant’s market to a rent-rising landlord’s one. By the second half of next year, the majority of the country will see rents pushing upwards.
Asking Rents Select Markets, Avg. Rent 2013 Rents
Yr/Yr % Chg.
New York, NY
$63.20
9.5%
Washington, DC
$49.40
-0.8%
San Francisco, CA
$49.16
11.4%
San Mateo County, CA
$42.06
4.9%
Suburban VA
$31.59
0.3%
Los Angeles, CA
$30.87
3.3%
San Diego, CA
$29.97
4.3%
Boston-Cambridge, MA
$29.93
-1.1%
San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA
$29.68
7.3%
Suburban MD
$26.58
0.6%
Houston, TX
$25.19
2.3%
Northern NJ
$24.90
0.5%
Orange County, CA
$23.83
1.4%
Minneapolis, MN
$23.71
-3.7%
Central NJ
$23.66
-1.2%
Baltimore, MD
$22.62
3.4%
Denver, CO
$21.80
7.8%
Oakland-East Bay, CA
$21.20
4.4%
Dallas, TX
$21.08
5.6%
Charlotte, NC
$20.67
0.8%
Phoenix, AZ
$20.45
0.9%
Nashville, TN
$20.23
3.9%
Sacramento, CA
$19.98
1.4%
Columbus, OH
$19.78
7.1%
Tampa, FL
$19.61
-1.5%
Raleigh, NC
$19.43
-0.9%
Atlanta, GA
$19.08
0.7%
Saint Louis, MO
$18.67
-0.8%
Indianapolis, IN
$18.05
-0.1%
Cincinnati, OH
$18.05
-1.4%
Kansas City, MO
$18.02
0.6%
Milwaukee, WI
$17.56
-2.2%
Louisville, KY
$16.97
2.3%
Dayton, OH
$14.35
0.2%
Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Office-using Employment
Bipartisn Budget Act of 2013
Yr/Yr Change, 000’s
Caps on Discretionary Spending, $ Trillions
1000
721,000
$1.25 $1.20
500
$1.15 0 06
07
08
-500
09
10
11
12
13
$1.10 $1.05 $1.00
-1000 -1500 -2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4 | Cassidy Turley
$0.95 $0.90 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Original Budget Sequester Budget Agreement Source: CBO, HBO
Investment Sales U.S. Office Sales Volume Office Sale Volume
$18
Select Markets, Jan - Nov 2013
$16
$194
$1,668.5
$211
Northern NJ
$1,419.6
$129
San Diego, CA
$1,244.0
$272
Orange County, CA
$1,215.8
$222
Philadelphia, PA
$1,135.2
$135
Minneapolis, MN
$1,096.7
$123
Phoenix, AZ
$1,016.8
$136
Milwaukee, WI
$914.8
$149
Charlotte, NC
$799.5
$150
East Bay, CA
$698.6
$215
Miami, FL
$690.0
$249
Las Vegas, NV
$665.6
$191
Nashville, TN
$592.6
$124
Saint Louis, MO
$432.7
$93
Detroit, MI
$423.7
$82
Portland, OR
$409.0
$177
Orlando, FL
$387.5
$89
Source: Real Capital Analytics
U.S. Office Cap Rates 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%
CBD
$377.4
$118
Baltimore, MD
$359.9
$115
Raleigh/Durham, NC
$331.3
$158
Indianapolis, IN
$319.0
$86
NYC Boroughs
$312.0
$261
$240 $200
$105
$289.4
$112
Inland Empire, CA
$279.0
$133
U.S. Office Acquisitions by Buyer Type
Billions
$307.5
San Antonio, TX
$160 $120
Broward, FL
$271.7
$98
Salt Lake City, UT
$253.4
$150
Pittsburgh, PA
$252.7
$109
Long Island, NY
$219.8
$126
$40
Sacramento, CA
$180.1
$146
$0
Cincinnati, OH
$136.7
$41
Kansas City, MO
$123.3
$52
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Cassidy Turley Research
Suburban
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Tampa, FL
Columbus, OH
Nov-13
$1,940.9
Austin, TX
Nov-13
Denver, CO
Jul-13
$417
Mar-13
$305
$2,488.6
Jul-13
$2,594.3
San Francisco, CA
Nov-12
Seattle, WA
Mar-13
$330
Jul-12
$2,638.1
Nov-12
San Jose, CA
$0 Mar-12
$146
Jul-12
$252
$2,977.9
Mar-12
$3,116.3
Dallas, TX
Nov-11
Boston, MA
$2
Nov-11
$151
Jul-11
$3,144.0
Jul-11
Atlanta, GA
Avg. = $4.9B
$4
Mar-11
$176
Nov-10
$4,594.8
Mar-11
Chicago, IL
$6
Jul-10
$220
Nov-10
$4,776.9
Mar-10
Houston, TX
$8
Jul-10
$358
Nov-09
$5,923.3
Mar-10
Washington DC Metro
$10
Jul-09
$263
Nov-09
$7,857.4
Mar-09
Los Angeles, CA
$12
Jul-09
$744
Nov-08
$17,344.9
Mar-09
Manhattan, NY
$14
Nov-08
Avg PSF
Billions
$ Volume (Millions)
$80
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Q1-3Q1-3 12 13 Cross-Border
Inst'l/Eq Fund
Listed/REITs
Private
User/other
Source: Real Capital Analytics
cassidyturley.com | 5
Net Absorption 2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
53,105,000
50,075,000
51,593,000
22,368,000
5,865,000
14,808,000
15,310,000
15,611,000
Northeast
6,920,000
3,687,000
13,006,000
2,974,000
484,000
4,155,000
2,831,000
5,537,000
Midwest
2,800,000
5,211,000
6,842,000
2,448,000
575,000
2,789,000
1,834,000
1,644,000
South
19,378,000
20,850,000
19,512,000
8,233,000
3,503,000
3,149,000
6,308,000
6,552,000
West
24,007,000
20,327,000
12,233,000
8,713,000
1,303,000
4,715,000
4,337,000
1,878,000
United States
Albuquerque, NM Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Austin-Round Rock, TX
58,000
113,000
15,000
140,000
41,000
171,000
-105,000
-92,000
1,581,000
1,043,000
686,000
352,000
219,000
390,000
206,000
-130,000
-97,000
1,624,000
2,285,000
47,000
98,000
708,000
614,000
865,000 265,000
2,155,000
1,408,000
631,000
754,000
94,000
203,000
68,000
Baltimore, MD
778,000
710,000
1,028,000
162,000
218,000
215,000
344,000
251,000
Birmingham-Hoover, AL
377,000
255,000
35,000
119,000
1,000
141,000
13,000
-121,000
Boston-Cambridge, MA
622,000
691,000
1,749,000
771,000
610,000
290,000
313,000
537,000 -509,000
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
322,000
195,000
-530,000
73,000
13,000
-31,000
-3,000
Charleston-North Charleston, SC
285,000
255,000
72,000
186,000
-132,000
125,000
-1,000
80,000
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC
695,000
998,000
1,570,000
623,000
423,000
257,000
452,000
439,000
Chattanooga, TN-GA
96,000
53,000
-186,000
-20,000
-79,000
-88,000
-18,000
-2,000
-517,000
2,328,000
1,503,000
940,000
89,000
780,000
659,000
-24,000
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN
263,000
109,000
279,000
21,000
101,000
-65,000
109,000
135,000
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
-175,000
107,000
349,000
541,000
-307,000
372,000
165,000
118,000
Colorado Springs, CO
575,000
245,000
364,000
25,000
225,000
146,000
-3,000
-4,000
Columbia, SC
308,000
-374,000
-34,000
24,000
-57,000
-34,000
26,000
30,000
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
Columbus, OH Dallas, TX Dayton, OH
555,000
290,000
39,000
164,000
-244,000
100,000
135,000
48,000
2,738,000
3,044,000
4,161,000
2,379,000
808,000
-226,000
1,679,000
1,900,000
83,000
314,000
264,000
82,000
N/A
13,000
70,000
181,000
Denver-Aurora, CO
1,532,000
1,643,000
1,912,000
535,000
576,000
387,000
726,000
222,000
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
98,000
1,185,000
36,000
379,000
107,000
126,000
-19,000
174,000
FairďŹ eld, CT
720,000
-256,000
5,000
-276,000
26,000
-96,000
17,000
59,000
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
136,000
195,000
470,000
-14,000
10,000
199,000
73,000
187,000
Greensboro-Winston-Salem, NC
208,000
297,000
-104,000
64,000
-57,000
35,000
-66,000
-15,000
Greenville, SC
199,000
324,000
156,000
10,000
-31,000
222,000
-64,000
29,000
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
-147,000
-47,000
176,000
74,000
-45,000
157,000
-94,000
159,000
Honolulu, HI
107,000
197,000
145,000
18,000
79,000
2,000
32,000
31,000
Houston, TX
2,646,000
4,546,000
3,946,000
851,000
-147,000
551,000
1,977,000
1,565,000
Indianapolis, IN
-188,000
454,000
493,000
204,000
210,000
112,000
56,000
115,000
Jacksonville, FL
630,000
89,000
115,000
-106,000
-50,000
94,000
191,000
-120,000
Kansas City, MO-KS
457,000
606,000
453,000
332,000
180,000
148,000
76,000
50,000
Knoxville, TN
153,000
157,000
-251,000
-1,000
-30,000
-15,000
-11,000
-195,000
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
994,000
925,000
271,000
348,000
-68,000
435,000
-113,000
16,000
27,000
119,000
-111,000
170,000
15,000
-14,000
-105,000
-7,000
Lexington-Fayette,KY Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR
22,000
-12,000
5,000
19,000
-14,000
38,000
-69,000
50,000
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
597,000
871,000
-404,000
364,000
-552,000
-131,000
396,000
-117,000
Louisville, KY-IN
462,000
395,000
364,000
92,000
-61,000
76,000
103,000
247,000
Madison, WI
-46,000
231,000
160,000
62,000
-21,000
11,000
81,000
89,000
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
215,000
72,000
-93,000
98,000
-88,000
0
-62,000
58,000
1,018,000
1,521,000
1,315,000
269,000
249,000
316,000
290,000
461,000
290,000
79,000
350,000
-151,000
123,000
68,000
-11,000
170,000 25,000
Miami-Dade, FL Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
1,017,000
438,000
957,000
247,000
450,000
197,000
285,000
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN
744,000
1,102,000
37,000
225,000
154,000
-49,000
-122,000
54,000
New Haven-Milford, CT
240,000
100,000
-118,000
29,000
-79,000
29,000
-28,000
-39,000
6 | Cassidy Turley
Net Absorption New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA New York, NY Long Island, NY Northern New Jersey
2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
253,000
227,000
-52,000
26,000
-124,000
50,000
41,000
2013 4Qp -20,000
4,217,000
2,602,000
7,101,000
843,000
-943,000
1,542,000
1,284,000
5,217,000
797,000
1,215,000
500,000
914,000
46,000
179,000
358,000
-83,000
-1,235,000
-900,000
385,000
-161,000
691,000
406,000
-81,000
-630,000
Central New Jersey
-140,000
-469,000
1,062,000
-42,000
10,000
623,000
563,000
-134,000
Oakland-East Bay, CA
1,210,000
1,471,000
-91,000
579,000
-55,000
823,000
-263,000
-596,000
Oklahoma City, OK
413,000
2,722,000
-2,000
274,000
141,000
-69,000
-186,000
112,000
Omaha, NE-IA
144,000
45,000
702,000
-131,000
38,000
704,000
-169,000
129,000
1,232,000
414,000
832,000
276,000
-5,000
344,000
261,000
232,000
841,000
483,000
218,000
344,000
18,000
71,000
74,000
56,000 656,000
Orlando, FL West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ
1,157,000
803,000
921,000
683,000
-48,000
249,000
64,000
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
653,000
1,726,000
1,358,000
1,135,000
-89,000
-24,000
881,000
591,000
Pittsburgh, PA
649,000
467,000
264,000
285,000
-93,000
411,000
192,000
-246,000
Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME
-238,000
-120,000
295,000
54,000
75,000
74,000
83,000
62,000
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
905,000
774,000
54,000
315,000
-11,000
196,000
-140,000
9,000
Raleigh-Durham, NC
354,000
437,000
966,000
201,000
301,000
189,000
354,000
122,000
Rochester, NY
392,000
-231,000
9,000
-2,000
-59,000
30,000
109,000
-72,000
71,000
1,469,000
1,247,000
830,000
178,000
366,000
437,000
266,000
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA Saint Louis, MO-IL
-218,000
144,000
827,000
17,000
-39,000
285,000
196,000
385,000
Salt Lake City, UT
1,122,000
405,000
280,000
629,000
6,000
158,000
19,000
98,000
346,000
1,085,000
491,000
582,000
207,000
118,000
111,000
55,000
San Antonio, TX San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
686,000
1,192,000
887,000
730,000
150,000
586,000
144,000
7,000
San Francisco, CA
2,945,000
2,114,000
1,117,000
427,000
194,000
172,000
227,000
525,000
San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA
5,544,000
3,588,000
2,445,000
1,229,000
-285,000
1,241,000
874,000
614,000
San Mateo County, CA
1,564,000
-588,000
218,000
-130,000
276,000
-521,000
584,000
-122,000
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
3,808,000
3,084,000
1,675,000
1,093,000
396,000
368,000
499,000
412,000
Suburban MD
553,000
364,000
219,000
429,000
459,000
-128,000
-28,000
-84,000
Suburban VA
-120,000
-2,015,000
-132,000
-349,000
253,000
-95,000
57,000
-347,000
Syracuse, NY
-109,000
-155,000
121,000
10,000
47,000
53,000
9,000
12,000
Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
540,000
70,000
922,000
516,000
613,000
-259,000
241,000
328,000
Tucson, AZ
175,000
-65,000
-92,000
61,000
-31,000
-67,000
-34,000
40,000
Tulsa, OK
373,000
383,000
85,000
43,000
70,000
50,000
-53,000
18,000
Ventura County, CA
-119,000
121,000
147,000
32,000
53,000
18,000
-30,000
106,000
Washington, DC
799,000
-95,000
551,000
-61,000
246,000
123,000
121,000
60,000
Wichita, KS
-50,000
30,000
87,000
13,000
-131,000
83,000
9,000
126,000
-328,000
-209,000
1,067,000
-282,000
233,000
240,000
44,000
550,000
Westchester, NY
Methodology and data sources explained on page 14 p = preliminary r = revision
cassidyturley.com | 7
Office Vacancy Rates 2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
(Quarterly Average) United States
16.5%
15.8%
15.3%
15.5%
15.5%
15.2%
15.3%
15.1%
Northeast
15.7%
15.8%
15.4%
15.6%
15.6%
15.3%
15.4%
15.5%
Midwest
19.3%
19.0%
18.6%
19.0%
19.0%
18.6%
18.6%
18.4%
South
15.8%
14.6%
14.1%
14.2%
14.2%
14.1%
14.2%
13.9%
West
16.5%
15.5%
14.8%
15.1%
15.0%
14.8%
14.7%
14.6%
Albuquerque, NM
13.5%
14.1%
13.5%
13.6%
13.3%
12.8%
13.6%
14.3%
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
20.8%
18.4%
16.0%
17.1%
16.7%
15.9%
15.5%
15.7%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
21.5%
20.1%
19.2%
19.7%
19.6%
19.3%
19.1%
18.6%
Austin-Round Rock, TX
14.9%
10.6%
8.6%
9.3%
9.0%
8.7%
8.7%
8.1% 16.6%
Baltimore, MD
19.3%
18.7%
17.0%
18.5%
17.5%
17.1%
16.9%
Birmingham-Hoover, AL
11.2%
10.2%
9.0%
9.5%
9.5%
8.7%
8.6%
9.3%
Boston-Cambridge, MA
14.4%
13.5%
12.0%
11.9%
12.2%
11.8%
12.2%
11.8% 13.3%
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
12.1%
11.0%
11.4%
10.7%
10.6%
10.8%
10.9%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC
11.0%
10.3%
10.7%
9.2%
11.7%
10.1%
11.0%
10.0%
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC
19.6%
17.9%
15.8%
17.8%
16.7%
16.5%
15.3%
14.6%
Chattanooga, TN-GA
14.9%
13.6%
16.9%
13.8%
15.3%
17.1%
17.5%
17.5%
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
18.4%
17.8%
17.0%
17.4%
17.3%
17.1%
16.8%
16.9%
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN
23.9%
24.5%
24.0%
25.0%
24.8%
24.2%
23.8%
23.3%
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
20.5%
21.3%
22.5%
21.8%
22.6%
22.8%
22.4%
22.1%
Colorado Springs, CO
10.7%
9.3%
7.2%
9.2%
7.8%
6.8%
7.1%
7.1%
Columbia, SC
14.7%
15.7%
16.9%
16.7%
17.3%
17.6%
17.3%
15.6%
Columbus, OH
17.1%
15.8%
16.1%
15.6%
16.6%
15.6%
16.0%
16.1%
Dallas, TX
22.1%
21.0%
19.9%
20.6%
20.2%
20.1%
19.4%
19.8%
Dayton, OH
28.0%
27.0%
27.3%
27.7%
27.7%
27.0%
27.3%
27.3%
Denver-Aurora, CO
13.7%
12.8%
11.8%
12.4%
12.2%
12.1%
11.5%
11.5%
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
24.5%
23.8%
23.1%
23.4%
23.3%
23.3%
23.0%
22.9%
Fairfield, CT
21.9%
21.4%
21.9%
21.7%
21.7%
22.2%
21.5%
22.1%
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
18.1%
17.1%
16.2%
17.1%
17.1%
16.3%
16.0%
15.4%
Greensboro-Winston-Salem, NC
18.3%
16.6%
16.5%
16.1%
16.4%
16.2%
16.6%
16.8%
Greenville, SC
18.1%
15.6%
13.0%
14.7%
15.0%
12.6%
13.3%
11.1%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
22.9%
23.9%
23.2%
23.5%
23.6%
23.0%
23.5%
22.7%
Honolulu, HI
6.8%
6.2%
5.6%
5.9%
5.7%
5.7%
5.5%
5.4%
Houston, TX
15.5%
13.3%
13.3%
12.0%
12.1%
13.8%
13.9%
13.5%
Indianapolis, IN
20.6%
20.0%
19.5%
19.7%
19.5%
19.5%
19.6%
19.5%
Jacksonville, FL
17.3%
16.6%
16.5%
16.7%
16.8%
16.5%
15.8%
16.7%
Kansas City, MO-KS
21.6%
20.8%
19.4%
19.8%
19.5%
19.2%
19.2%
19.6%
Knoxville, TN
17.1%
13.1%
14.3%
13.1%
13.4%
13.6%
13.8%
16.5%
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
21.8%
20.6%
17.8%
18.7%
18.9%
17.2%
17.6%
17.6%
Lexington-Fayette,KY
18.6%
19.1%
18.2%
17.1%
16.8%
17.1%
19.4%
19.5%
Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR
11.5%
11.4%
11.8%
12.0%
12.1%
11.6%
12.4%
11.2%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
17.6%
17.3%
18.0%
17.1%
18.0%
18.3%
17.9%
17.9%
Louisville, KY-IN
15.6%
14.8%
14.3%
16.1%
14.2%
14.8%
14.6%
13.5%
Madison, WI
10.2%
9.7%
9.8%
9.5%
9.6%
9.5%
9.9%
10.1%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
18.8%
18.0%
18.6%
17.7%
18.1%
18.7%
19.0%
18.7%
Miami-Dade, FL
14.2%
11.7%
9.2%
10.7%
10.3%
9.6%
9.0%
7.9%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
20.9%
20.8%
20.9%
21.7%
21.2%
20.9%
20.9%
20.4%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
17.7%
17.8%
16.5%
17.5%
16.9%
16.6%
16.2%
16.2%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN
10.9%
9.9%
9.4%
9.2%
8.9%
9.1%
9.8%
9.7%
8 | Cassidy Turley
OfďŹ ce Vacancy Rates 2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
16.6%
(Quarterly Average) New Haven-Milford, CT
16.1%
15.8%
16.3%
15.5%
16.2%
16.1%
16.3%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA
10.1%
9.6%
9.6%
9.4%
9.8%
9.7%
9.5%
9.6%
New York, NY
13.0%
12.7%
11.3%
11.6%
11.8%
11.4%
11.2%
10.8%
Long Island, NY
16.2%
16.0%
14.4%
15.5%
14.7%
14.2%
14.0%
14.6%
Northern New Jersey
14.2%
15.0%
15.1%
15.2%
14.7%
15.1%
15.1%
15.5%
Central New Jersey
16.7%
16.8%
15.3%
17.1%
17.1%
15.1%
14.6%
14.6%
Oakland-East Bay, CA
17.9%
16.9%
15.9%
16.1%
16.2%
15.4%
15.7%
16.2%
Oklahoma City, OK
16.2%
13.2%
11.2%
11.4%
10.6%
10.9%
11.8%
11.5%
Omaha, NE-IA
14.4%
14.9%
15.6%
15.7%
15.6%
15.2%
16.2%
15.5%
Orlando, FL
13.8%
12.2%
11.1%
11.9%
12.1%
11.1%
10.8%
10.4%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL
14.9%
13.8%
12.3%
12.7%
12.7%
12.4%
12.1%
11.9%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ
13.3%
13.1%
13.2%
13.1%
13.5%
13.3%
13.2%
12.7%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
24.1%
23.4%
21.5%
22.1%
22.0%
22.1%
21.2%
20.6%
Pittsburgh, PA
14.8%
14.5%
14.4%
14.0%
14.5%
14.3%
14.1%
14.7%
Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME
11.3%
12.1%
11.5%
12.5%
12.1%
11.7%
11.2%
10.9%
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
12.9%
11.9%
11.1%
11.3%
11.3%
10.9%
11.2%
11.2%
Raleigh-Durham, NC
17.6%
16.4%
14.2%
15.1%
14.8%
14.3%
14.0%
13.7%
Rochester, NY
14.1%
15.4%
16.0%
15.7%
16.0%
15.9%
15.9%
16.3%
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
17.7%
17.1%
15.5%
16.2%
16.1%
15.5%
15.3%
14.9%
Saint Louis, MO-IL
16.0%
16.3%
15.7%
16.5%
16.6%
16.0%
15.5%
14.7%
Salt Lake City, UT
12.1%
11.5%
11.4%
11.0%
11.3%
11.6%
11.5%
11.4%
San Antonio, TX
17.7%
16.9%
16.6%
16.7%
16.9%
16.6%
16.5%
16.3%
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
19.3%
18.2%
17.9%
17.7%
18.0%
17.9%
17.7%
18.0%
San Francisco, CA
12.4%
9.3%
8.5%
8.9%
8.7%
8.5%
8.5%
8.2%
San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA
15.4%
13.4%
12.7%
13.0%
13.2%
12.6%
12.6%
12.2%
San Mateo County, CA
13.2%
13.3%
13.4%
13.6%
13.2%
14.2%
13.0%
13.3%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
15.1%
12.4%
11.0%
11.6%
11.2%
11.3%
10.9%
10.7%
Suburban MD
15.4%
15.5%
15.9%
15.5%
15.7%
16.0%
15.9%
16.0%
Suburban VA
14.1%
15.9%
16.9%
16.4%
16.4%
16.7%
17.0%
17.6%
Syracuse, NY
14.2%
15.9%
15.2%
16.0%
15.6%
15.2%
15.0%
15.0%
Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
20.7%
20.1%
19.0%
19.6%
18.9%
19.3%
18.9%
18.7%
Tucson, AZ
14.5%
14.8%
16.1%
14.9%
15.3%
16.2%
16.7%
16.1%
Tulsa, OK
16.4%
15.0%
14.3%
14.3%
13.9%
14.0%
14.6%
14.5%
Ventura County, CA
24.0%
23.7%
24.3%
24.3%
24.4%
23.9%
24.5%
24.4%
Washington, DC
10.4%
10.4%
10.4%
10.6%
10.4%
10.3%
10.2%
10.6%
Wichita, KS
17.4%
17.4%
17.5%
17.3%
18.3%
17.7%
17.6%
16.3%
Westchester, NY
20.2%
20.3%
20.2%
20.2%
19.2%
19.0%
22.0%
20.5%
Methodology and data sources explained on page 14 p = preliminary r = revision
cassidyturley.com | 9
Asking Rents 2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
(Quarterly Average) United States
$21.47
$21.75
$21.86
$21.67
$21.73
$21.82
$21.90
$22.00
Northeast
$23.93
$24.46
$24.46
$24.06
$24.36
$24.24
$24.49
$24.75
Midwest
$18.26
$18.25
$18.01
$18.06
$18.04
$18.05
$18.04
$17.93
South
$20.60
$20.69
$20.72
$20.70
$20.65
$20.71
$20.73
$20.77
West
$23.23
$23.80
$24.31
$23.86
$23.97
$24.29
$24.39
$24.58
Albuquerque, NM
$15.58
$15.29
$15.03
$15.21
$15.28
$15.00
$14.87
$14.99
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
$24.11
$23.50
$23.83
$23.47
$23.61
$23.68
$23.93
$24.10
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
$18.77
$18.94
$19.08
$18.96
$18.91
$19.01
$19.07
$19.33
Austin-Round Rock, TX
$24.36
$25.11
$26.88
$25.52
$26.16
$26.96
$26.93
$27.48
Baltimore, MD
$22.19
$21.88
$22.62
$22.18
$22.28
$22.91
$22.58
$22.72
Birmingham-Hoover, AL
$17.74
$17.92
$17.52
$17.79
$17.74
$17.60
$17.61
$17.16
Boston-Cambridge, MA
$34.48
$34.98
$29.93
$28.94
$30.28
$29.51
$28.89
$31.02
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
$16.73
$16.70
$16.56
$16.61
$16.54
$16.72
$16.57
$16.44
Charleston-North Charleston, SC
$19.01
$18.30
$17.21
$17.87
$16.80
$17.43
$17.35
$17.24
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC
$19.47
$20.50
$20.67
$20.81
$20.62
$20.49
$20.78
$20.80
Chattanooga, TN-GA
$13.92
$15.02
$15.06
$14.93
$15.19
$15.09
$15.08
$14.86
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
$24.43
$25.10
$24.70
$24.92
$24.81
$24.65
$24.57
$24.76
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN
$18.15
$18.31
$18.05
$18.19
$18.16
$18.07
$18.07
$17.90
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
$17.83
$18.07
$17.45
$18.05
$17.51
$17.44
$17.41
$17.45
Colorado Springs, CO
$16.04
$16.71
$15.62
$16.75
$16.72
$15.37
$15.28
$15.10
Columbia, SC
$15.60
$15.51
$15.73
$15.62
$15.87
$15.73
$15.69
$15.65
Columbus, OH
$17.11
$18.47
$19.78
$18.84
$19.67
$19.81
$19.81
$19.81
Dallas, TX
$19.37
$19.95
$21.08
$20.05
$20.16
$20.93
$21.21
$22.00
Dayton, OH
$14.56
$14.31
$14.35
$14.14
$14.14
$14.33
$14.46
$14.45
Denver-Aurora, CO
$20.14
$20.22
$21.80
$20.55
$21.13
$21.99
$21.88
$22.19
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
$18.31
$17.91
$16.27
$17.67
$16.30
$16.30
$16.28
$16.22
FairďŹ eld, CT
$31.06
$32.61
$33.69
$32.19
$33.20
$32.59
$34.59
$34.37
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
$24.49
$23.90
$23.18
$23.68
$23.81
$23.11
$22.97
$22.85
Greensboro-Winston-Salem, NC
$15.44
$15.30
$15.47
$15.25
$15.23
$15.58
$15.51
$15.56
Greenville, SC
$15.76
$15.61
$15.55
$15.61
$15.63
$15.54
$15.39
$15.65
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
$19.39
$19.02
$19.18
$18.97
$18.97
$19.05
$19.13
$19.57
Honolulu, HI
$28.56
$27.48
$25.08
$26.76
$25.90
$24.66
$24.74
$25.03
Houston, TX
$22.96
$24.61
$25.19
$25.23
$25.10
$24.49
$25.37
$25.78
Indianapolis, IN
$18.08
$18.08
$18.05
$18.09
$18.03
$18.06
$18.06
$18.06
Jacksonville, FL
$17.05
$17.01
$17.02
$16.94
$17.09
$16.97
$17.02
$17.00
Kansas City, MO-KS
$18.10
$17.91
$18.02
$17.94
$18.05
$18.01
$18.02
$18.01
Knoxville, TN
$15.85
$15.71
$15.07
$15.33
$15.13
$14.99
$15.13
$15.03
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
$21.59
$20.63
$19.62
$20.07
$19.54
$19.71
$19.70
$19.53
Lexington-Fayette,KY
$15.89
$15.61
$15.50
$15.72
$15.71
$15.58
$15.41
$15.32
Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR
$14.98
$15.28
$15.32
$15.34
$15.32
$15.43
$15.37
$15.17
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
$29.77
$29.87
$30.87
$30.17
$29.94
$30.36
$31.48
$31.68
Louisville, KY-IN
$17.00
$16.59
$16.97
$16.83
$16.83
$17.03
$16.98
$17.04
Madison, WI
$17.36
$17.16
$16.47
$17.32
$17.06
$16.42
$16.33
$16.06
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
$18.82
$18.79
$18.85
$18.73
$18.86
$18.87
$18.89
$18.77
Miami-Dade, FL
$27.52
$27.16
$27.30
$27.04
$27.19
$27.13
$27.18
$27.69
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
$18.35
$17.96
$17.56
$17.76
$17.63
$17.51
$17.51
$17.59
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
$24.58
$24.63
$23.71
$23.32
$23.45
$24.02
$24.07
$23.28
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN
$19.96
$19.47
$20.23
$19.86
$20.01
$20.31
$20.30
$20.30
10 | Cassidy Turley
Asking Rents 2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
(Quarterly Average) New Haven-Milford, CT
$20.01
$20.44
$19.52
$20.73
$20.97
$19.10
$19.06
$18.93
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA
$14.96
$15.09
$15.10
$15.38
$15.03
$15.17
$15.13
$15.08
New York, NY
$51.99
$57.70
$63.20
$59.44
$61.49
$62.13
$63.55
$65.61
Long Island, NY
$25.69
$25.66
$25.61
$25.59
$25.67
$25.69
$25.73
$25.36
Northern New Jersey
$25.06
$24.78
$24.90
$24.61
$24.52
$24.80
$25.10
$25.17
Central New Jersey
$23.50
$23.95
$23.66
$23.84
$23.74
$23.92
$23.65
$23.34
Oakland-East Bay, CA
$19.92
$20.32
$21.20
$20.57
$20.77
$21.05
$21.52
$21.47
Oklahoma City, OK
$13.41
$13.16
$13.15
$13.11
$13.04
$13.04
$13.27
$13.24
Omaha, NE-IA
$17.30
$16.82
$16.80
$16.28
$16.72
$16.84
$16.88
$16.73
Orlando, FL
$19.69
$19.47
$18.96
$19.19
$19.07
$18.99
$18.94
$18.86
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL
$27.09
$26.85
$25.58
$26.68
$25.47
$25.59
$25.62
$25.63
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ
$23.05
$23.24
$23.14
$23.18
$23.29
$23.08
$23.04
$23.14
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
$21.05
$20.27
$20.45
$20.17
$19.83
$20.39
$20.85
$20.72
Pittsburgh, PA
$19.38
$19.39
$19.30
$19.51
$19.25
$19.23
$19.35
$19.40
Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME
$14.36
$13.63
$12.66
$12.69
$12.55
$12.52
$12.58
$12.97
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
$20.60
$20.59
$21.03
$20.76
$20.90
$21.10
$21.06
$21.04
Raleigh-Durham, NC
$19.88
$19.60
$19.43
$19.41
$19.39
$19.38
$19.40
$19.54
Rochester, NY
$13.96
$13.91
$14.14
$13.98
$13.91
$14.13
$14.20
$14.30
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
$20.49
$19.71
$19.98
$19.56
$19.92
$19.92
$20.04
$20.04
Saint Louis, MO-IL
$19.22
$18.82
$18.67
$18.78
$18.62
$18.77
$18.63
$18.66
Salt Lake City, UT
$17.55
$18.43
$19.45
$19.36
$19.50
$19.61
$19.34
$19.35
San Antonio, TX
$19.43
$19.61
$19.64
$19.67
$19.59
$19.70
$19.70
$19.59
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
$28.55
$28.73
$29.97
$28.98
$29.82
$29.82
$29.64
$30.60
San Francisco, CA
$35.79
$44.13
$49.16
$43.56
$45.37
$49.44
$50.64
$51.18
San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA
$25.59
$27.65
$29.68
$28.40
$29.14
$29.85
$29.74
$30.00
San Mateo County, CA
$36.42
$40.08
$42.06
$40.20
$40.56
$42.72
$42.12
$42.84
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
$26.67
$26.94
$27.31
$27.45
$27.25
$27.13
$27.25
$27.61
Suburban MD
$26.55
$26.42
$26.58
$26.18
$26.38
$26.82
$26.80
$26.30
Suburban VA
$30.28
$31.51
$31.59
$31.46
$31.18
$31.58
$31.72
$31.89
Syracuse, NY
$14.89
$15.47
$15.35
$15.34
$15.46
$15.48
$15.34
$15.11
Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
$19.85
$19.91
$19.61
$19.57
$19.62
$19.48
$19.61
$19.72
Tucson, AZ
$19.67
$19.02
$19.00
$18.87
$18.89
$19.02
$19.00
$19.09
Tulsa, OK
$15.77
$15.76
$16.00
$15.90
$15.97
$15.96
$16.03
$16.05
Ventura County, CA
$23.11
$23.22
$22.82
$23.25
$22.98
$22.77
$22.63
$22.89
Washington, DC
$49.41
$49.80
$49.40
$49.95
$49.87
$49.35
$49.08
$49.31
Wichita, KS
$11.86
$11.78
$11.76
$11.59
$11.87
$11.81
$11.87
$11.50
Westchester, NY
$25.39
$25.47
$26.07
$25.27
$25.50
$25.69
$26.54
$26.56
Methodology and data sources explained on page 14 p = preliminary r = revision
cassidyturley.com | 11
Inventory National Total
Inventory 2013 4Q
Vacant Stock 2013 4Q
Inventory Change (2013)
U/C (as of 2013 4Q) 57,140,000
5,014,144,000
745,856,000
33,347,000
Albuquerque, NM
13,589,000
1,937,000
120,000
289,000
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
59,316,000
9,313,000
21,000
380,000
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
194,167,000
36,115,000
721,000
1,175,000
Austin-Round Rock, TX
40,896,000
3,301,000
187,000
1,709,000
Baltimore, MD
75,898,000
12,622,000
781,000
1,440,000
Birmingham-Hoover, AL
18,533,000
1,715,000
0
0
Boston-Cambridge, MA
151,391,000
17,864,000
1,755,000
4,030,000
20,954,000
2,784,000
20,000
129,000
8,061,000
803,000
154,000
100,000
44,712,000
6,528,000
0
106,000
4,852,000
849,000
0
0
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
245,163,000
41,442,000
549,000
1,489,000
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN
32,912,000
7,669,000
0
410,000
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
36,546,000
8,061,000
594,000
20,000
Colorado Springs, CO
15,140,000
1,077,000
65,000
17,000
Columbia, SC
10,799,000
1,687,000
0
60,000
Columbus, OH
26,531,000
4,271,000
308,000
516,000
206,868,000
40,960,000
1,623,000
3,624,000
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY Charleston-North Charleston, SC Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Chattanooga, TN-GA
Dallas, TX Dayton, OH
14,209,000
3,879,000
0
0
186,999,000
21,505,000
971,000
0
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
75,890,000
17,406,000
63,000
0
FairďŹ eld, CT
53,911,000
11,914,000
0
168,000
Denver-Aurora, CO
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
27,232,000
4,203,000
32,000
319,000
Greensboro-Winston-Salem, NC
17,908,000
3,002,000
17,000
59,000
Greenville, SC Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
8,994,000
997,000
0
0
24,728,000
5,625,000
37,000
189,000
Honolulu, HI
25,719,000
1,392,000
0
0
Houston, TX
220,672,000
29,791,000
4,468,000
7,029,000
Indianapolis, IN
31,729,000
6,187,000
0
0
Jacksonville, FL
25,071,000
4,181,000
32,000
210,000
Kansas City, MO-KS
49,501,000
9,702,000
459,000
0
7,124,000
1,176,000
0
33,000
26,596,000
4,675,000
0
481,000
4,521,000
883,000
0
54,000
10,691,000
1,201,000
19,000
0
165,667,000
29,654,000
767,000
745,000
21,646,000
2,918,000
0
400,000
Knoxville, TN Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Lexington-Fayette,KY Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Louisville, KY-IN Madison, WI
22,426,000
2,255,000
393,000
0
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
19,740,000
3,694,000
139,000
0
Miami-Dade, FL
43,541,000
3,447,000
152,000
177,000
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
27,721,000
5,655,000
0
0
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
68,092,000
11,031,000
22,000
0
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN
33,078,000
3,209,000
64,000
899,000 515,000
New Haven-Milford, CT
12,259,000
2,036,000
19,000
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA
36,096,000
3,463,000
0
70,000
433,481,000
46,816,000
4,589,000
7,693,000
73,464,000
10,726,000
0
29,000
Northern New Jersey
151,299,000
23,451,000
1,047,000
974,000
Central New Jersey
104,227,000
15,217,000
152,000
423,000
New York, NY Long Island, NY
12 | Cassidy Turley
Inventory Oakland-East Bay, CA
Inventory 2013 4Q
Vacant Stock 2013 4Q
Inventory Change (2013)
U/C (as of 2013 4Q)
109,314,000
17,709,000
64,000
0
Oklahoma City, OK
20,219,000
2,316,000
42,000
22,000
Omaha, NE-IA
19,108,000
2,963,000
794,000
546,000
Orlando, FL
33,444,000
3,472,000
374,000
201,000
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL
24,247,000
2,886,000
30,000
181,000
113,628,000
14,407,000
543,000
667,000
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
96,948,000
19,971,000
208,000
661,000
Pittsburgh, PA
50,697,000
7,431,000
656,000
2,123,000
Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME
17,886,000
1,942,000
0
0
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
41,794,000
4,663,000
0
370,000
Raleigh-Durham, NC
36,798,000
5,041,000
301,000
618,000
Rochester, NY
15,878,000
2,592,000
142,000
145,000
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
86,222,000
12,847,000
82,000
77,000
Saint Louis, MO-IL
48,229,000
7,090,000
0
405,000
Salt Lake City, UT
31,306,000
3,561,000
471,000
829,000
San Antonio, TX
30,477,000
4,974,000
452,000
222,000
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
71,285,000
12,830,000
441,000
1,692,000
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ
San Francisco, CA San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA
84,322,000
6,914,000
550,000
2,987,000
201,845,000
24,625,000
1,974,000
3,111,000
San Mateo County, CA
50,844,000
6,762,000
133,000
327,000
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
86,399,000
9,206,000
987,000
1,134,000
Suburban MD
72,652,000
11,624,000
963,000
892,000
Suburban VA
161,633,000
28,447,000
1,913,000
1,175,000
Syracuse, NY
12,765,000
1,909,000
0
0
Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
60,040,000
11,221,000
519,000
118,000
Tucson, AZ Tulsa, OK Ventura County, CA Washington, DC
6,334,000
1,018,000
0
65,000
20,685,000
3,009,000
169,000
172,000
5,495,000
1,338,000
36,000
0 2,098,000
122,183,000
12,951,000
1,164,000
Wichita, KS
13,940,000
2,269,000
0
0
Westchester, NY
36,972,000
7,579,000
0
345,000
Methodology and data sources explained on page 14 Under construction and inventory change figures are derived from Cassidy Turley’s proprietary sample and taken directly from CoStar’s database for certain markets.
cassidyturley.com | 13
Methodology Methodology
Disclaimer This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.cassidyturley. com. This is a research document of Cassidy Turley in Washington, DC. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at 202-4632100. Information contained herein has
Cassidy Turley’s quarterly estimates are derived from a variety of data sources, including its own proprietary sample of market activity, historical inventory data from Reis LLC, Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment data, CoStar and other third party data sources. The market statistics are calculated from a base building inventory made up of office properties deemed to be competitive in the local office markets. Generally, owner-occupied and federally-owned buildings are not included. Single-tenant buildings and privately-owned buildings in which the federal government leases space are included. Older buildings unfit for occupancy or ones that require substantial renovation before tenancy are generally not included in the competitive inventory. The inventory is subject to revisions due to resampling. Vacant space is defined as space that is available immediately or three months (90 days) after the end of the quarter. Sublet space still occupied by the tenant is not counted as available space.
been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Cassidy Turley is a leading
The figures provided for the current quarter are preliminary, and all information contained in the report is subject to correction of errors and revisions based on additional data received.
commercial real estate services provider, with 400 million square feet managed on behalf of institutional, private and corporate clients and $22 billion in completed transactions for 2012.
Explanation of Terms Total Inventory: The total amount of office space (in buildings greater than 10,000 square feet) that can be rented by a third party. Total Space Available: The sums of new, relet, and sublet space that is unoccupied and being actively marketed. Vacancy Rate: The amount of unoccupied space (new, relet, and sublet) expressed as a percentage of total inventory. Absorption: The net change in occupied space between two points in time. (Total occupied space in the present quarter minus total occupied space from the previous quarter, quoted on a net, not gross, basis.) Asking Rents: Gross average asking rents.
Regional Map
West Midwest South Northeast 14 | Cassidy Turley
A Leader in Commercial Real Estate Services Key Statistics •
More than 60 U.S. offices
•
65 international offices*
•
More than 3,800 professionals
•
More than 970 brokers
•
2012 transactions
At Cassidy Turley, we are market leaders, industry leaders and community leaders. Nationwide, clients recognize us for the creative sophistication of our real estate advice as well as for the discipline and accuracy of our service delivery. We are a trusted partner and advocate, supporting our clients’ overall business performance. In markets across the country, we are respected as a leading provider of commercial real estate services as well as for our community engagement. Our thorough understanding of local business practices and market dynamics, combined with our customer focus and service commitment, give our clients a distinct edge in commercial real estate across the globe.
Local Market Leaders, Nationwide •
Our professionals have deep ties to our communities and our industry, and a thorough understanding of local business leaders and practices, giving Cassidy Turley and our clients an edge.
•
Our in-depth, local market knowledge provides a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and enables us to effectively forecast market trends – providing insight to clients and helping them make informed real estate decisions.
•
Our leadership position is recognized in the communities we serve. We are often rated in local business journals as a “Best Place to Work,” and are honored for our many local philanthropic efforts.
– Gross transaction volume $22 billion – Gross capital markets volume $9.2 billion •
400 million sf managed portfolio
•
More than 23,000 client locations served
*Through GVA Partnership
Industry Leadership •
Named to Leaders List of 2013 Global Outsourcing 100
•
Over 80% of real estate executives familiar with our brand ranked it Very Good or Excellent – Wall Street Journal survey
•
Ranked a Top 5 Brand – Lipsey’s 2013 Commercial Real Estate Brandy Survey
•
Ranked in the Top 5 in Best Practices Index – Commercial Property Executive
•
2012 Greenest Company Index – Commercial Property Executive
•
Named by the EPA a 2013 ENERGY STAR® Partner of the Year
World-Class Expertise •
Many of our associates have honed their skills in their respective markets for years – even decades – gaining an understanding of industry best practices and serving as thought leaders.
•
Cassidy Turley has served clients’ needs outside of the United States since 1985. In order to better serve our clients in Europe and Asia-Pacific, Cassidy Turley is proud to partner with GVA, the founder and majority shareholder of GVA Worldwide, which serves key markets in over 25 countries.
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