ACA D EMIC CATALO G
2016
FALL/ WINTER Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n a l Pea ce | 1
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a unique global network of policy research centers in Russia, China, Europe, the Middle East, India, and the United States. Our mission, dating back more than a century, is to advance the cause of peace through analysis and development of fresh policy ideas and direct engagement and collaboration with decisionmakers in government, business, and civil society. Working together, our centers bring the inestimable benefit of multiple national viewpoints to bilateral, regional, and global issues. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 P +1 202 483 7600 F +1 202 483 1840 pubs@ceip.org CarnegieEndowment.org
Contents Asia 5 Democracy and Rule of Law
11
Energy and Climate
15
Europe 19 Middle East
23
Nuclear Policy
29
Russia and Eurasia
33
South Asia
37
Ordering Information
41
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Asia Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n a l Pea ce | 5
Fault Lines in a Rising Asia CHUNG M IN L EE 2016 FAULT LINES in a
RISING ASIA
in a
“Is Asia ready for the Asian century? Chung Min Lee’s thought-provoking new book raises serious questions about whether Asia’s fragile political structures and fraught geopolitics can sustain global leadership.”
—Simon Long, Banyan columnist, Economist
LEE
Asia has already risen by most hard-power measures. But without an understanding of the downsides of Asia’s rise, the conventional narrative is incomplete, misleading, and inaccurate. Chung Min Lee
Chung Min Lee explores the fundamental dichotomy that defines contemporary Asia. While the region has been an unparalleled economic success, it is also home to some of the world’s most dangerous, diverse, and divisive challenges. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, he says, Asia’s rise doesn’t mean the demise of the West.
C HUN G MIN LEE is a professor of international relations at the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, South Korea, and a nonresident senior associate in Carnegie’s Asia Program. He works on security issues in Northeast Asia, including strategic developments on the Korean peninsula. Buy the book Paperback $19.95
Hardcover $49.95
Ebook $9.99 AND UP
Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble,
and iTunes. 978-0-87003-311-7 978-0-87003-312-4 978-0-87003-313-1
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AS IA
PERCEPTION MISPERCEPTION IN AMERICAN AND CHINESE VIEWS OF THE OTHER
Alastair Iain Johnston and Mingming Shen, editors
INTERACTIVE
Charting the Post–Cold War U.S.-Japan Alliance Since the Cold War’s end, the United States and Japan have tried to give new purpose to their alliance by expanding cooperation while managing economic tensions—with mixed results. This interactive resource allows users to explore the modern evolution of the U.S.-Japan alliance across several policy categories, including foreign policy, science and technology, security, economics, development, and global commons, as well as health and environmental initiatives. Explore the interactive CarnegieEndowment.org/publications/ interactive/us-japan-initiatives/
Perception and Misperception in American and Chinese Views of the Other
Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Strategic Net Assessment
E DI T E D BY
MICH A EL D. SWAIN E N ICH OLA S EB ERSTADT ET A L.
AL ASTA IR IA IN JOH N STON MI NGMIN G SH EN 2015 The underlying beliefs that people in the United States and China hold toward each other in the security realm are likely to influence, directly or indirectly, each side’s foreign policy with regard to the bilateral relationship. In-depth analyses of elite and public opinion survey data from the United States and China on a wide range of security issues provide nuanced and far-reaching insights into the potential effects of these attitudes on the U.S.-China relationship. FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/
2015 The Asia-Pacific region is undergoing enormous change, fueled by high levels of economic growth and deepening levels of integration. These and other forces are generating a shift in the distribution of economic, political, and military power across the region. This changing security environment poses a major challenge for the United States, the historically dominant power in maritime Asia. Efforts to enhance regional cooperation, reassure allies, and deter and shape potentially destabilizing behavior are demanding a more complex mixture of U.S. skills and understanding. An array of forces will drive both cooperation and conflict across the Asia-Pacific region.
SecurityPerceptions_final1.pdf FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ net_assessment_2.pdf
Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n a l Pea ce | 7
SEE A LSO
Balancing Without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China
U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications
ASHL E Y J. TEL L I S
MI CH A EL D. SWA IN E RACH EL ESPLIN OD ELL LUO YUA N L I U XIA N GD ON G
2014 China is poised to become a major strategic rival to the United States. Whether or not Beijing intends to challenge Washington’s primacy, its economic boom and growing national ambitions make competition inevitable. And as China rises, American power will diminish in relative terms, threatening the foundations of the U.S.-backed global order that has engendered unprecedented prosperity worldwide. To avoid this costly outcome, Washington needs a novel strategy to balance China without containing it.
2013 Public and elite attitudes in the United States and especially China are exerting a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship. The U.S.-China Security Perceptions Project analyzes the content of these attitudes through original surveys and workshops conducted in both countries. The project’s findings have implications for policymakers seeking to reduce the likelihood of future bilateral conflicts.
FREE
FREE
Download the report
Download the report
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/balancing_ without_containment.pdf
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/us_china_ security_perceptions_report.pdf
Managing China’s Petcoke Problem WANG TAO
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/petcoke.pdf
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth YUKON HUANG CANYON BOSLER
2014 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/china_ debt_dilemma.pdf
What Myanmar Means for the U.S.-Japan Alliance JAMES L. SCHOFF
2014 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ myanmar_us_japan.pdf
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AS IA
ASI A E X P E RTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Asia experts, including:
BEIJING Chen Qi
Resident Scholar
Matt Ferchen
Resident Scholar @MattFerchen
Paul Haenle
Director, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy @PaulHaenle
Zhang Chuanjie Resident Scholar
SEOUL Chung Min Lee
Zhang Lihua
Nonresident Senior Associate
Zhao Kejin
WASHINGTON
Resident Scholar Resident Scholar
Tong Zhao
Associate @zhaot2005
Yukon Huang Senior Associate
Li Bin
Senior Associate
Evan S. Medeiros
Shi Han
Resident Scholar
CHICAGO
Nonresident Senior Associate
Pang Xun
Evan A. Feigenbaum
Vikram Nehru
Resident Scholar
Nonresident Senior Associate @EvanFeigenbaum
Michael Pettis Nonresident Senior Associate
Shi Zhiqin
Resident Scholar
KUALA LUMPUR Muthiah Alagappa
Nonresident Senior Associate
Resident Scholar
Deputy Director, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Resident Scholar
Douglas H. Paal
Vice President for Studies
James L. Schoff Senior Associate @SchoffJ
Sun Xuefeng
Tang Xiaoyang
Senior Associate and Bakrie Chair in Southeast Asian Studies @vikramnehru
NEW YORK John L. Holden
Michael D. Swaine Senior Associate
Nonresident Senior Associate
Wang Tao
Nonresident Scholar @taowangcarnegie
Yan Xuetong
President, Carnegie–Tsinghua Management Board
PARIS François Godement Nonresident Senior Associate
Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n a l Pea ce | 9
AS IA
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Democracy and Rule of Law Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n a l Pea ce | 11
Rachel Kleinfeld
IMPROVI NG DEVELOPMENT AI D DESIGN AND EVALUATI ON Plan for Sailboats, Not Trains
The Puzzle of Non-Western Democracy R ICHA R D YO U NGS
Improving Development Aid Design and Evaluation: Plan for Sailboats, Not Trains
Thieves of State: Why Corruption Threatens Global Security
2015
RACH EL KLEIN FELD
SA RA H CH AYES
2015
2015
The development field increasingly looks to sophisticated metrics to measure impact. Simultaneously, practitioners are recognizing that most development programs must engage with politics and policy. Unfortunately, the measurement techniques gaining popularity are those least able to determine how to implement political reforms. Effective reform efforts require planning for and measuring change that is nonlinear and nonincremental.
Every day a new blaze seems to ignite: the bloody implosion of Iraq and Syria; the East-West standoff in Ukraine; abducted schoolgirls in northern Nigeria. Is there some thread tying these frightening international security crises together? In a riveting account that weaves history with fast-moving reportage and insider accounts from the Afghanistan war, Sarah Chayes identifies the unexpected link: corruption.
Calls for different models of democracy are becoming more prominent and widespread. The future of global politics will depend greatly on whether and how democracy can be made more effective, participative, and accountable. Many politicians, diplomats, and experts today argue in favor of non-Western models of democracy. Yet it remains unclear what such models should look like. It is more useful to think in terms of specific areas of democratic variation that can encourage democratic renewal—outside, but also within, the West.
PUBLISHED BY
FREE
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Download the report
Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-428-2
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/
Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-429-9 Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-430-5 Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and iTunes.
devt_design_implementation.pdf
Buy the book Paperback $16.95 978-0-39335-228-3 Hardcover $26.95 978-0-39323-946-1 Ebook
$14.99 978-0-39324-653-7
Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and iTunes.
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D EMOCRACY A N D RULE O F L AW
D EMOCRACY AN D R U L E OF LAW EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s democracy and rule of law experts, including:
S EE A L SO
The Closing Space Challenge: How Are Funders Responding? THOMAS CAROTHERS
2015
Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit of Short-Term Security and Political Goals
MADRID
NATHANIEL MYERS
Senior Associate @YoungsRichard
FREE
2015
Download the paper
FREE
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_258_ Carothers_Closing_Space_Final.pdf
The Complexities of Global Protests THOMAS CAROTHERS RICHARD YOUNGS
Download the paper
WASHINGTON
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_252_HardAid_Myers_final.pdf
Thomas Carothers
The New Global Marketplace of Political Change
2015
THOMAS CAROTHERS OREN SAMET-MARRAM
FREE
2015
Download the paper
FREE
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_257_ Youngs-Carothers-Global_Protests_final.pdf
The Oil Curse: A Remedial Role for the Oil Industry SARAH PECK SARAH CHAYES
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_250_ Peck_Chayes_Oil_Curse_Final.pdf
Richard Youngs
Vice President for Studies
Sarah Chayes
Senior Associate
Rachel Kleinfeld Senior Associate @RachelKleinfeld
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/global_ marketplace.pdf
Governing Lagos: Unlocking the Politics of Reform DIANE DE GRAMONT
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ governing_lagos.pdf
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Energy and Climate Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 15
Know Your Oil: Creating a Global Oil-Climate Index D EBORAH GORDON A DAM BRANDT J OUL E BERGE RSON J ONATHAN KOOM EY 2015 Oil is changing. Conventional oil resources are dwindling as tight oil, oil sands, heavy oils, and others emerge. Technological advances mean that these unconventional hydrocarbon deposits in once-unreachable areas are now viable resources. Meanwhile, scientific evidence is mounting that climate change is occurring, but the climate impacts of these new oils are not well understood. Carnegie’s Energy and Climate Program, Stanford University, and the University of Calgary have developed a first-of-its-kind Oil-Climate Index (OCI) to compare these resources.
DEBORA H G ORD ON is director of Carnegie’s Energy and Climate
Program, where her research focuses on oil and climate change issues in North America and globally.
ADAM B RA N DT is an assistant professor in the Department of Energy Resources Engineering at Stanford University.
JO ULE B ERG ERSON is an assistant professor in the Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department and the Center for Environmental Engineering Research and Education in the Schulich School of Engineering at the University of Calgary. JO NATH A N KOOMEY is a research fellow at the Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance at Stanford University.
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/know_your_oil.pdf
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EN ERGY A N D CL IM AT E
EN ERGY A N D C L IM AT E EXPERTS
S EE ALSO
The G7 Climate Mandate and the Tragedy of Horizons INTERACTIVE
Assessing Global Oils: The Oil-Climate Index The Oil-Climate Index (OCI) was developed to alert public and private stakeholders to the diversifying array of oils’ climate impacts from various perspectives, with an eye toward informing investment, development, operations, and governance of the oil supply chain. The index provides new knowledge and indicators that stakeholders can take into account to make more informed, strategic, and durable decisions throughout the oil sector. The OCI estimates and compares oils’ total life-cycle GHG emissions that stem from their upstream extraction, midstream refining, and downstream end use. Oils that are in production, as well as prospective resources, can be modeled using the OCI.
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s energy and climate experts, including:
DAVID LIVINGSTON
2016 FREE
BEIJING
Download the paper
Wang Tao
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_263_Livingston_G7_Final.pdf
Managing China’s Petcoke Problem WANG TAO
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/petcoke.pdf
The Politics of Plenty: Balancing Climate and Energy Security
Nonresident Scholar @taowangcarnegie
WASHINGTON David Burwell
Nonresident Senior Associate
Deborah Gordon Director @DxGordon
David Livingston Associate @WolfLivingston
Jessica T. Mathews Distinguished Fellow
DAVID BURWELL
2013 FREE
Explore the interactive OCI.CarnegieEndowment.org
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ politics_of_plenty.pdf
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Europe Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 19
Governing Cyberspace: A Road Map for Transatlantic Leadership SI N AN ÜLGE N Ülgen
2016
GOVERNING CYBERSPACE
Sinan Ülgen
A Road Map for Transatlantic Leadership
Cybertechnologies are rapidly changing the international landscape, but leaders in government, business, and elsewhere are just beginning to understand the ramifications, both good and bad, of an interconnected digital world. Weak international governance of cyberspace stands in stark contrast to the accelerating pace of challenges. To shape the regimes that govern cyberspace to the advantage of generations to come, the United States and the European Union should forge a joint policy vision.
S I NA N ÜLGEN is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on the implications of Turkish foreign policy for Europe and the United States, nuclear policy, and the security and economic aspects of the transatlantic relations. He is a founding partner of Istanbul Economics, a Turkish consulting firm that specializes in public and regulatory affairs, and chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an independent think tank in Istanbul.
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/Sinan_Cyber_Final.pdf
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E U RO PE
EUROPE EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Europe experts, including:
SEE A L SO
Reviving the OSCE: European Security and the Ukraine Crisis STEFAN LEHNE
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_249_Lehne_OSCE.pdf
BERLIN
OXFORD
Judy Dempsey
Gwendolyn Sasse
Nonresident Senior Associate and Editor in Chief, Strategic Europe @Judy_Dempsey
BRUSSELS Jan Techau
Director, Carnegie Europe @jan_techau
Marc Pierini
Visiting Scholar @MarcPierini1
Pierre Vimont
Senior Associate
The Politics of 2 Percent: NATO and the Security Vacuum in Europe JAN TECHAU
2015
Nonresident Associate @GwendolynSasse
VIENNA Stefan Lehne
Visiting Scholar @StefanLehne
WASHINGTON Cornelius Adebahr Associate
Thomas Carothers
Vice President for Studies
ISTANBUL Sinan Ülgen
Visiting Scholar @sinanulgen1
FREE
Download the paper
LISBON
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_252_Techau_NATO_Final.pdf
Bruno Maçães
Are Prime Ministers Taking Over EU Foreign Policy?
MADRID
STEFAN LEHNE
2015 FREE
Download the paper
Nonresident Associate @MacaesBruno
Kristina Kausch
Nonresident Associate @kristinakausch
Richard Youngs Senior Associate @YoungsRichard
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ prime_min_for_policy.pdf
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Middle East Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 23
PUBLISHED BY
The New Arab Wars: Uprisings and Anarchy in the Middle East MARC LYNC H 2016 Less than twenty-four months after the hope-filled Arab uprising, the popular movement had morphed into a dystopia of resurgent dictators, failed states, and civil wars. Egypt’s epochal transition to democracy ended in a violent military coup. Yemen and Libya collapsed into civil war, while Bahrain erupted in smothering sectarian repression. Syria proved the greatest victim of all, ripped apart by internationally fueled insurgencies and an externally supported, bloody-minded regime. Amidst the chaos, a virulently militant group declared an Islamic State, seizing vast territories and inspiring terrorism across the globe. What happened?
Buy the book Hardcover $26.99 978-1-61039-609-7 Also available as an ebook.
The New Arab Wars is a profound illumination of the causes of this nightmare. It details the costs of the poor choices made by regional actors, delivers a scathing analysis of Western misreadings of the conflict, and condemns international interference that has stoked the violence. Informed by commentators and analysts from the Arab world, Marc Lynch’s narrative of a vital region’s collapse is both wildly dramatic and likely to prove definitive. Most important, he shows that the region’s upheavals have only just begun—and that the hopes of Arab regimes and Western policy makers to retreat to old habits of authoritarian stability are doomed to fail.
MARC LYN CH is a nonresident senior associate in Carnegie’s Middle East Program where his work focuses on the politics of the Arab world. He is also a professor of political science at the George Washington University, where he recently completed a six-year term as director of the Institute for Middle East Studies. He is the director of the Project on Middle East Political Science, an international network of scholars, and a contributing editor of the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog.
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MID D L E E AST
The Second Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism M A RWA N M UAS HER 2014
Sectarian Politics in the Gulf: From the Iraq War to the Arab Uprisings F R ED ERIC WEH REY 2013
Marwan Muasher examines the tumultuous recent events in the Arab region in the context of long-term historical pressure to build societies that will respond to Arab citizens’ longing for freedom and opportunity. Only through the painstaking process of constructing an Arab world defined by pluralism and tolerance can this dream be realized. PUBLISHED BY
Buy the book Hardcover $30.00 978-0-30018-639-0
Perilous Desert: Insecurity in the Sahara EDITED BY
FRED ERIC WEH RE Y A N OUA R B OUKH A R S 2013
Beginning with the 2003 invasion of Iraq and concluding with the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings, Frederic Wehrey investigates the roots of the Shia-Sunni divide now dominating the Persian Gulf’s political landscape. Focusing on the three Gulf states affected most by sectarian tensions—Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait—Wehrey identifies the factors that have exacerbated or tempered sectarianism, including domestic political institutions, the media, clerical establishments, and the contagion effect of external regional events, such as the Iraq war, the 2006 Lebanon conflict, the Arab uprisings, and Syria’s civil war.
The geopolitical significance of the Sahara is becoming painfully clear. Islamist militant groups and transnational criminal networks are operating in the region’s most fragile states, exploiting widespread corruption, weak government capacity, crushing poverty, and entrenched social and ethnic tensions. The unrest spills over borders and aggravates protracted regional crises. This insecurity raises urgent concerns for the broader Sahara and for the West. Perilous Desert details the sources of instability and what can be done to minimize the threat of simmering conflicts. Buy the book
PUBLISHED BY
Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-403-9
Paperback $20.00 978-0-30021-263-1
Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-404-6
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Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-405-3
Hardcover $55.00 978-0-23116-512-9
Available on Amazon and iTunes.
Also available as an ebook.
Also available as an ebook.
Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 25
S EE A L SO
Between Peril and Promise: A New Framework for Partnership with Tunisia MARWAN MUASHER MARC PIERINI ALEXANDER DJERASSI
2016 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_269_Tunisia.pdf
The Sunni Predicament in Iraq RENAD MANSOUR
2016 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CMEC_59_Mansour_Sunni_Final.pdf
Great Expectations in Tunisia
The Kingdom and the Caliphate: Duel of the Islamic States
MAHA YAHYA
COLE BUNZEL
2016
2016
FREE
FREE
Download the paper
Download the paper
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CMEC_60_Yahya_Tunisia_Final.pdf
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_265_Bunzel_Islamic_States_Final.pdf
Dilemmas of Reform: Policing in Arab Transitions YEZID SAYIGH
Mauritania’s Precarious Stability and Islamist Undercurrent
2016
ANOUAR BOUKHARS
FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CEIP_CMEC61_Sayigh_Final.pdf
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2016 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CEIP_CP266_Boukhars_Final.pdf
Palestine in Flux: From Search for State to Search for Tactics NATHAN BROWN DANIEL NERENBERG
2016 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CEIP_ CP264_Brown-Nerenberg_Final.pdf
Shia-Centric State Building and Sunni Rejection in Post-2003 Iraq FANAR HADDAD
2016 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP261_ Haddad_Shia_Final.pdf
Sectarian Twitter Wars: SunniShia Conflict and Cooperation in the Digital Age ALEXANDRA SIEGEL
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_262_ Siegel_Sectarian_Twitter_Wars_.pdf
MIDD L E E AST
MID D LE EA ST EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Middle East experts, including: AMMAN
LONDON
Marwan Muasher
Carole Nakhle
Nonresident Scholar
Vice President for Studies @MarwanMuasher
Refugees and the Making of an Arab Regional Disorder MAHA YAHYA
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CMEC57_Yahya_final.pdf
Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck Visiting Scholar
Kheder Khaddour
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_ 58_Egypt_Awad_Hashem_final.pdf
Market for Jihad: Radicalization in Tunisia GEORGES FAHMI HAMZA MEDDEB
2015 FREE
Download the paper
Nonresident Scholar @aboukhars01
Nonresident Senior Associate
Raphaël Lefèvre
El-Erian Fellow @renadmansour
Anouar Boukhars
Nathan J. Brown
Nonresident Scholar
MOKHTAR AWAD MOSTAFA HASHEM
Download the paper
Visiting Scholar @jobahout
Nonresident Scholar @GeorgesFahmi
Nonresident Scholar @RaphLefevre
FREE
Joseph Bahout
Georges Fahmi
Egypt’s Escalating Islamist Insurgency 2015
WASHINGTON
BEIRUT
Perry Cammack Associate @perrycammack
Renad Mansour
Alexander Djerassi
Nonresident Associate
Farea al-Muslimi
Michele Dunne
Visiting Scholar @almuslimi
Director and Senior Associate @MicheleDDunne
Yezid Sayigh
Marc Lynch
Senior Associate
Nonresident Senior Associate
Maha Yahya
Karim Sadjadpour
Acting Director, Carnegie Middle East Center and Senior Associate @mahamyahya
CAIRO Amr Adly
Nonresident Scholar
Senior Associate @ksadjadpour
Frederic Wehrey Senior Associate @FWehrey
Katherine Wilkens
Nonresident Associate
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_55_ FahmiMeddeb_Tunisia_final_oct.pdf
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Nuclear Policy Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 29
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urkey, with a robust modern economy and growing energy needs, is pursuing a switch to nuclear power. But that shift is occurring in an environment fraught with security challenges: Turkey borders Iraq, Syria, and Iran—all states with nuclear or WMD ambitions or capabilities. As a NATO member, Turkey also hosts U.S. nuclear bombs on its territory, although some question the durability of this relationship.
Pu
WAGGING THE PLUTONIUM DOG James M. Acton
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This dynamic has naturally led to speculation that Turkish leaders might someday consider moving beyond a civilian course to develop nuclear weapons. Yet there has been remarkably little informed analysis and debate on Turkey’s nuclear future, either within the country or in broader international society. This volume explores the current status and trajectory of Turkey’s nuclear program, adding historical perspective, analytical rigor, and strategic insight.
GEORGE PERKOVICH is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Japanese Domestic Politics and Its International SINAN ÜLGEN is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, Security Implications a founding partner of Istanbul Economics, and chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies in Istanbul.
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TURKEY’S NUCLEAR FUTURE
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P E RKOV I CH AND ÜL GE N
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Wagging the Plutonium Dog: Japanese Domestic Politics and Its International Security Implications JA M E S M . AC TO N 2015 Japan is the only non-nuclearweapon state with a program to extract plutonium from the spent fuel produced in nuclear reactors—a process termed reprocessing—to fabricate more fuel. Because plutonium can be used directly in the manufacturing of nuclear weapons, Japan has, in keeping with internationally recognized best practice, pledged not to produce more plutonium than it can consume. Serious questions are emerging, however, about whether it can uphold this commitment. FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ Plutonium_Dog_final.pdf
Turkey’s Nuclear Future
SEE A LSO
E DI TE D BY
An Unnoticed Crisis: The End of History for Nuclear Arms Control?
GEO RGE PERKOVICH S I NA N ÜLGEN 2015 Turkey is a rising economic and political force with the ability to affect dynamics in the greater Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. To meet its rising energy needs, the country—already an important actor in the international nuclear order—plans to establish nuclear power plants on its territory. Turkey’s location in a nuclearized environment fraught with security dilemmas has led to speculation that Turkish leaders could someday move beyond civilian use and begin to develop nuclear weapons. Buy the book
ALEXEI ARBATOV
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Arbatov2015_n_web_Eng.pdf
Brazil’s Nuclear Kaleidoscope: An Evolving Identity TOGZHAN KASSENOVA
2014 FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/brazil_ nuclear_kaleidoscope_lo_res.pdf
Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-415-2 Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-416-9 Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-417-6 Available on Amazon and iTunes.
Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike JAMES M. ACTON
2013 FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/cpgs.pdf
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N UCLEA R PO L ICY
N U C L E A R P O LI CY EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s nuclear policy experts, including:
BEIJING
MOSCOW
Tong Zhao
Alexey Arbatov
Associate @zhaot2005
Togzhan Kassenova Associate @tkassenova
Scholar in Residence
Li Bin
Senior Associate
Vladimir Dvorkin BERLIN Mark Hibbs
Senior Associate @MarkHibbsCEIP
BIRMINGHAM Nicholas D. Wright Nonresident Associate
BRUSSELS Pierre Goldschmidt
Nonresident Senior Associate
GENEVA Shahram Chubin
Nonresident Senior Associate
ISTANBUL Sinan Ülgen
Visiting Scholar
LONDON Paul Schulte
Nonresident Senior Associate
Distinguished Military Fellow
George Perkovich
Vice President for Studies @PerkovichG
Petr Topychkanov Associate @PTopych
Tristan Volpe
Stanton Fellow and Associate @teeandersvolpe
TEL AVIV Ariel (Eli) Levite
Nonresident Senior Associate
TOKYO Tomoko Kurokawa Nonresident Scholar
WASHINGTON James M. Acton
Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program @james_acton32
Taylor P. Brooks
Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow
Toby Dalton
Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program @toby_dalton
William Norris
Nonresident Associate
Carn e g ie i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 31
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Russia and Eurasia Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 33
SEE A LSO
Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order
Great Catastrophe: Armenians and Turks in the Shadow of Genocide
RAJA N M E NO N EU G E N E R U MER
T HO M A S D E WA A L
2015 The current conflict in Ukraine has spawned the most serious crisis between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War. It has undermined European security, raised questions about NATO’s future, and put an end to one of the most ambitious projects of U.S. foreign policy— building a partnership with Russia. It also threatens to undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts on issues ranging from terrorism to nuclear proliferation. Each side is betting that political and economic pressure will force the other to blink first. Caught in this dangerous game of chicken, the West cannot afford to lose sight of the importance of stable relations with Russia.
2015 The destruction of the Armenians of the Ottoman Empire in 1915–1916 was the greatest atrocity of World War I. Thomas de Waal looks at the aftermath and politics of the Armenian Genocide and tells the story of recent efforts by courageous Armenians, Kurds, and Turks to come to terms with the disaster as Turkey enters a new post-Kemalist era. The story of what happened to the Armenians in 1915–1916 is well-known. Here we are told the “history of the history” and the lesser-known story of what happened to Armenians, Kurds, and Turks in the century that followed. PUBLISHED BY Buy the book
Buy the book
Hardcover $29.95 978-0-19935-069-8 Also available as an ebook.
Also available as an ebook.
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DENIS VOLKOV
2016 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_ Volkov_WEB_Eng.pdf
The Resurgence of a Market Economy in North Korea ANDREI LANKOV
2016 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_ Lankov_Eng_web_final.pdf
U.S. Policy Toward Central Asia 3.0 EUGENE RUMER RICHARD SOKOLSKY PAUL STRONSKI
2016
PUBLISHED BY
Hardcover $24.95 978-0-26202-904-9
Russian Elite Opinion After Crimea
FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_259_Central_Asia_Final.pdf
RU RUSSIA SSIA AANNDD EEUURAS RASIA IA
R USSIA A N D EURA SIA EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia experts, including:
LONDON Thomas de Waal Senior Associate @Tom_deWaal
The Rise of Nontraditional Islam in the Urals ALEXEY MALASHENKO ALEXEY STAROSTIN
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_ MalashenkoUral_Sept2015_web_Eng.pdf
ANDREI KOLESNIKOV
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Kolesnikov_Ideology2015_web_Eng.pdf
MOSCOW Alexey Arbatov
Scholar in Residence
Alexander Baunov
Senior Associate and Editor in Chief, Carnegie.ru @baunov
Vladimir Dvorkin
Alexander Gabuev Senior Associate @AlexGabuev
Andrei Kolesnikov Senior Associate
Nikolay Kozhanov Nonresident Scholar
Andrey Movchan
Understanding the Revitalization of Russian-Iranian Relations NIKOLAY KOZHANOV
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Kozhanov_web_Eng.pdf
Director, Carnegie Moscow Center @DmitriTrenin
VILNIUS
Distinguished Military Fellow
Russian Ideology After Crimea
Dmitri Trenin
Senior Associate
Balázs Jarábik
Nonresident Scholar @BalazsJarabik
WASHINGTON Ambassador James F. Collins Senior Associate and Diplomat in Residence
Eugene Rumer
Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, and Senior Associate
Richard Sokolsky Senior Associate
Paul Stronski
Senior Associate @pstronski
Andrew S. Weiss
Vice President for Studies @AndrewSWeiss
Alexey Malashenko Scholar in Residence
Maxim Samorukov
Deputy Editor, Carnegie.ru
Petr Topychkanov Associate @PTopych
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South Asia Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 37
LESan,ifoTldHTrEavYa COM B U he M il s of
BAT TALION E INe Indian Air Force S
T
th
TRO
Troubles, They Come in Battalions: The Manifold Travails of the Indian Air Force
ASH LE Y
J.
TEL
LIS
A SHL E Y J. TE L L IS 2016 The Indian Air Force (IAF) is in crisis. Despite being a world-class combat arm, the IAF’s falling end strength and problematic force structure, combined with its troubled acquisition and development programs, threaten India’s air superiority over its rapidly modernizing rivals, China and Pakistan. Indian air dominance is vital for deterrence stability in southern Asia and for preserving the strategic balance in the wider Indo-Pacific region. Resolving India’s airpower crisis, therefore, should be a priority for New Delhi.
AS HLEY J. TELLIS is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues. While on assignment to the U.S. Department of State as senior adviser to the under secretary of state for political affairs, he was intimately involved in negotiating the civil nuclear agreement with India.
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/Tellis_IAF_final.pdf
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SOU T H AS IA
ASHLEY J. T ELLIS AND
C. RAJA MOHAN
A M E RI CA N
A N D
I ND I A N
P ERSP EC T I V E S
The Strategic Rationale for Deeper U.S.-Indian Economic Ties
Unity in Difference: Overcoming the U.S.-India Divide
ASHL E Y J. TE L L I S C . RA JA M O HAN
AS HLEY J. TELLIS
2015
Getting India Back on Track: An Action Agenda for Reform EDITED BY
B IB EK D EB ROY A SH LEY J. TELLIS REECE TREVOR
2015
The U.S.-India relationship was often distant during the Cold War, but the partnership is now critical for both countries’ strategic aims. India is important to the U.S. effort to maintain its international primacy, while the United States is essential to India’s attainment of its great power ambitions. Deepened economic intercourse, including one day through a comprehensive U.S.-Indian free-trade agreement, is vital to realizing both countries’ aspirations.
U.S. President Barack Obama’s return to India in January 2015 carries the hope that Washington and New Delhi may succeed in placing their cooperation on firmer foundations. Achieving this objective will require reconciling American expectations of exchange-based relations with the Indian desire for a no-obligations partnership. This challenge is best handled through a set of complementary policies in Washington and New Delhi that together are most aptly characterized as “unity in difference.”
FREE
FREE
Download the report
Download the report
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ US_India_TellisMohan_Final.pdf
CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ unity_in_difference.pdf
2014 India has fallen far and fast from the runaway growth rates it enjoyed in the first decade of the twenty-first century. In order to reverse this trend, New Delhi must seriously reflect on its policy choices across a wide range of issue areas. Getting India Back on Track broadly coincides with the 2014 Indian elections to spur a public debate about the program that the next government should pursue in order to return the country to a path of high growth. It convenes some of India’s most accomplished analysts to recommend policies in every major sector of the Indian economy. Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-425-1 Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-426-8 Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-427-5 Available on Amazon and iTunes.
Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 39
SOU T H AS IA
SOU TH A SIA EX PE RTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s South Asia experts, including:
S EE A LSO
Employing India: Guaranteeing Jobs for the Rural Poor
India as a Leading Power
EDUA R DO ZE PEDA ET A L .
FREE
2013 India’s rural employment guarantee is a milestone in social policy and employment creation. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act was mandated in 2005 to implement an ambitious, demand-driven employment-creation program to benefit the rural poor through projects that improve agricultural productivity and alleviate land degradation. Guaranteeing the right of rural households to 100 days of unskilled manual work, the program’s size sets a worldwide precedent. It has achieved impressive results, but the act continues to pose immense design and management challenges.
ASHLEY J. TELLIS
2016 Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_268_Tellis_India_final1.pdf
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/india_ rural_employment.pdf
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C. Raja Mohan
Director, Carnegie India @MohanCRaja
NORMAN, OK Aqil Shah
Nonresident Scholar
PARIS
Understanding the Indian Voter MILAN VAISHNAV
2015 FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ understanding_indian_voter.pdf
Making Waves: Aiding India’s Next-Generation Aircraft Carrier ASHLEY J. TELLIS
2015 FREE
FREE
NEW DELHI
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ making_waves.pdf
Gilles Dorronsoro Nonresident Scholar
Frederic Grare
Nonresident Senior Associate
Christophe Jaffrelot Nonresident Scholar
WASHINGTON Sarah Chayes
Senior Associate
George Perkovich
Vice President for Studies
Ashley J. Tellis Senior Associate
Milan Vaishnav Senior Associate @MilanV
Xiaoping Yang Visiting Scholar
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