Carnegie Academic Catalog Fall 2015

ACA D EMIC CATALO G

2015

FALL/ WINTER Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n a l Pea ce | 1

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a unique global network of policy research centers in Russia, China, Europe, the Middle East, and the United States. Our mission, dating back more than a century, is to advance the cause of peace through analysis and development of fresh policy ideas and direct engagement and collaboration with decisionmakers in government, business, and civil society.

Working together, our centers bring the inestimable benefit of multiple national viewpoints to bilateral, regional, and global issues.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 P +1 202 483 7600 F +1 202 483 1840 pubs@ceip.org CarnegieEndowment.org

Contents

Featured 4 Asia 7 Democracy and Rule of Law

13

Energy and Climate

19

Europe 23 Middle East

27

Nuclear Policy

33

Russia and Eurasia

39

South Asia

45

Ordering Information

49

Thieves of State: Why Corruption Threatens Global Security SA RAH C HAYES 2015 Every day a new blaze seems to ignite: the bloody implosion of Iraq and Syria; the East-West standoff in Ukraine; abducted schoolgirls in northern Nigeria. Is there some thread tying these frightening international security crises together? In a riveting account that weaves history with fast-moving reportage and insider accounts from the Afghanistan war, Sarah Chayes identifies the unexpected link: corruption.

Since the late 1990s, corruption has reached such an extent that some governments resemble glorified criminal gangs, bent solely on their own enrichment. These kleptocrats drive indignant populations to extremes—ranging from revolution to militant puritanical religion. Chayes plunges readers into some of the most venal environments on earth and examines what emerges: Afghans returning to the Taliban, Egyptians overthrowing the Mubarak government (but also redesigning Al-Qaeda), and Nigerians embracing both radical evangelical Christianity and the Islamist terror group Boko Haram. In many such places, rigid moral codes are put forth as an antidote to the collapse of public integrity.

The pattern, moreover, pervades history. Through deep archival research, Chayes reveals that canonical political thinkers such as John Locke and Machiavelli, as well as the great medieval Islamic statesman Nizam al-Mulk, all named corruption as a threat to the realm. In a thrilling argument connecting the Protestant Reformation to the Arab Spring, Thieves of State presents a powerful new way to understand global extremism.

And it makes a compelling case that we must confront corruption, for it is a cause—not a result—of global instability.

Buy the book Paperback $19.95

Hardcover $49.95

Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble,

978-0-393-24653-7 978-0-39335-228-3 iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

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FE AT U R E D

TA B LE OF CON TEN TS

SA RA H C H AYES

Sarah Chayes is a senior associate in Carnegie’s Democracy and Rule of Law Program and the South Asia Program. Formerly special adviser to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, she is an expert in South Asia policy, kleptocracy and anticorruption, and civil-military relations. She is working on correlations between acute public corruption and the rise of militant extremism.

A former reporter, she covered the fall of the Taliban for NPR, then left journalism to remain in Kandahar in order to contribute to the reconstruction of the country, living there almost continuously since December 2001. After running a nongovernmental organization founded by President Karzai’s brother Qayum, Chayes launched a manufacturing cooperative that produces skin-care products for export from licit local agriculture. The goals were to help revive the region’s historic role in exporting fruit and its derivatives, promote sustainable development, and expand alternatives to the opium economy. Deeply embedded in the life of the city and fluent in Pashtu, Chayes gained a unique perspective on the unfolding war.

In 2009, she was tapped to serve as special adviser to Generals David McKiernan and Stanley McChrystal, commanders of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). She contributed her unique understanding of the Afghan south to the decisionmaking process, built ISAF’s anticorruption policy, and assisted the U.S. embassy in developing an integrated approach to Afghan kleptocracy. In 2010, Chayes became special adviser to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, contributing to strategic policy on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Arab Spring.

Chayes is author of The Punishment of Virtue: Inside Afghanistan After the Taliban (Penguin Press HC, 2006). She is a contributing writer for the Los Angeles Times opinion section, and her articles have appeared in the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Atlantic, among other publications.

Chapter One “If I See Somebody Planting an IED…” Afghanistan, 2009

Chapter Nine Variation 3: The Post-Soviet Kleptocratic Autocracy Uzbekistan, ca. 2013

Chapter Two “Lord King, How I Wish That You Were Wise” Mirrors for Princes, ca.

770–1516

Chapter Ten Variation 4: The Resource Kleptocracy Nigeria, ca. 2014

Chapter Three Hearing People’s Complaints Kandahar to Kabul, 2001–2009 Chapter Four Nonkinetic Targeting Kabul, 2009 Chapter Five Vertically Integrated Criminal Syndicates Kabul, Garmisch, 2009–2010 Chapter Six Revolt Against Kleptocracy The Arab Spring: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, 2011

Chapter Eleven Up a Level Afghanistan and Washington, June 2010–January 2011 Chapter Twelve Forging an Appeal on Earth The Netherlands, England, America, ca. 1560–1787 Chapter Thirteen Violent Extremists Chapter Fourteen Remedies Epilogue Self-Reflection

Chapter Seven Variation 1: The (Overlooked) MilitaryKleptocratic Complex Egypt, ca. 2010 Chapter Eight Variation 2: The Bureaucratic Kleptocracy Tunisia, ca. 2010

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Asia Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n a l Pea ce | 7

Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Strategic Net Assessment MI CHAEL D. SWAINE N I C HOL AS EBE RSTADT M. TAYLOR F RAV E L ET AL .

2015 The Asia-Pacific region is undergoing enormous change, fueled by high levels of economic growth and deepening levels of integration. These and other forces are generating a shift in the distribution of economic, political, and military power across the region. This changing security environment poses a major challenge for the United States, the historically dominant power in maritime Asia. Efforts to enhance regional cooperation, reassure allies, and deter and shape potentially destabilizing behavior are demanding a more complex mixture of U.S. skills and understanding. An array of current and likely long-term forces will drive both cooperation and conflict across the Asia-Pacific region.

MORE FROM MICHAEL D. SWAINE U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications (pg. 9) America’s Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century (pg. 10)

MI CH A EL D. SWA IN E is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies. Formerly a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, Swaine is a specialist in Chinese defense and foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, and East Asian international relations.

He has authored and edited more than a dozen books and monographs and many journal articles and book chapters in these areas, directs several security-related projects with Chinese partners, and advises the U.S. government on Asian security issues. He received his doctorate in government from Harvard University.

FREE

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AS IA

Balancing Without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China

U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications

Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring

ASHL E Y J. TE L L I S

MI CH A EL D. SWA IN E RACH EL ESPLIN OD ELL LUO YUA N L I U XIA N GD ON G

2013

2014 China is poised to become a major strategic rival to the United States.

Whether or not Beijing intends to challenge Washington’s primacy, its economic boom and growing national ambitions make competition inevitable. And as China rises, American power will diminish in relative terms, threatening the foundations of the U.S.-backed global order that has engendered unprecedented prosperity worldwide. To avoid this costly outcome, Washington needs a novel strategy to balance China without containing it.

2013 Public and elite attitudes in the United States and especially China are exerting a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship.

The U.S.-China Security Perceptions Project analyzes the content of these attitudes through original surveys and workshops conducted in both countries. The project’s findings have implications for policymakers seeking to reduce the likelihood of future bilateral conflicts.

MICH A EL PETTIS

The days of rapid economic growth in China are over. Mounting debt and rising internal distortions mean that rebalancing is inevitable. Beijing has no choice but to take significant steps to restructure its economy. The only question is how to proceed.

Michael Pettis debunks the lingering bullish expectations for China’s economic rise and details Beijing’s options. The urgent task of shifting toward greater domestic consumption will come with political costs, but Beijing must increase household income and reduce its reliance on investment to avoid a fall.

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Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-407-7

CarnegieEndowment.org/files/balancing_ without_containment.pdf

Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-406-0 Ebook $9.95 AND UP 978-0-87003-408-4 Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n a l Pea ce | 9

SEE A LSO

China’s Military and the U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Strategic Net Assessment

America’s Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century

China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth

M ICHA E L D. SWAI NE M IK E M . M O CHI Z UKI M ICHA E L L . BROWN ET A L .

MI C H A EL D. SWA IN E

YUKON HUANG

2013 The emergence of the People’s Republic of China as an increasingly significant military power in the Western Pacific presents major implications for Japan, the U.S.-Japan alliance, and regional security. This report is the first and only unclassified strategic net assessment of the future impact of China’s growing military power on Japan and the United States, and it provides essential analysis for Washington and Tokyo to better evaluate the best approaches for maintaining deterrence credibility and regional stability over the long term.

FREE

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2011

2014 FREE

Offering a fresh perspective on current and near-term U.S. policy toward China, Swaine examines the basic beliefs behind U.S.-China relations, recent policy practices by both countries, and the future trends most likely to affect U.S. policy. American leaders, he concludes, must develop policies to sustain America’s economic and technological prowess and improve the U.S. strategic position.

Otherwise, Washington will have a hard time maintaining a stabilizing presence in East Asia, shaping regional and Chinese strategic perceptions, and managing key policy issues.

Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-257-8 Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-258-5

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/china_ debt_dilemma.pdf

What Myanmar Means for the U.S.-Japan Alliance JAMES L. SCHOFF

2014 FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ myanmar_us_japan.pdf

The Impact of Asian Investment on Africa’s Textile Industries TANG XIAOYANG

2014

Ebook $9.95 AND UP 978-0-87003-344-5

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Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/china_ textile_investment.pdf

ASI A E X P E RTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Asia experts, including:

BEIJING

BEIJING

Chen Qi

Zhang Chuanjie

Resident Scholar

continued

Resident Scholar

Matt Ferchen

Zhang Lihua

Resident Scholar

Resident Scholar

Paul Haenle

Zhao Kejin

Director, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy

Resident Scholar

Shi Han

Associate

Deputy Director, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Resident Scholar

Sun Xuefeng

Resident Scholar

Wang Tao

Resident Scholar

Yan Xuetong

Chung Min Lee

Nonresident Senior Associate

WASHINGTON Senior Associate

Evan A. Feigenbaum

Duyeon Kim

Nonresident Senior Associate

Associate

Li Bin

Senior Associate

KUALA LUMPUR Muthiah Alagappa

Nonresident Senior Associate

Resident Scholar

Tang Xiaoyang

SEOUL

CHICAGO

Nonresident Senior Associate

Resident Scholar

Nonresident Senior Associate

Yukon Huang

Michael Pettis Shi Zhiqin

François Godement

Tong Zhao

Resident Scholar

Pang Xun

PARIS

Vikram Nehru

Senior Associate and Bakrie Chair in Southeast Asian Studies

Douglas H. Paal NEW YORK John L. Holden Nonresident Senior Associate

Vice President for Studies

James L. Schoff Senior Associate

Michael D. Swaine Senior Associate

President, Carnegie–Tsinghua Management Board

Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n a l Pea ce | 11

AS IA

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Democracy and Rule of Law Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 13

Improving Development Aid Design and Evaluation: Plan for Sailboats, Not Trains RAC HEL KL EINF EL D 2015 Rachel Kleinfeld

IM P ROV I NG D EVE LOPME NT AI D D ES I G N A ND EVALUATI ON Plan for Sailboats, Not Trains

The development field increasingly looks to sophisticated metrics to measure impact. Simultaneously, practitioners are recognizing that most development programs must engage with politics and policy. Unfortunately, the measurement techniques gaining popularity are those least able to determine how to implement political reforms. Effective reform efforts require planning for and measuring change that is nonlinear and nonincremental. Complexity, or systems, theory offers insights for improving program design and evaluation.

RACH EL KLEIN FELD is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment

for International Peace, where she focuses on issues of rule of law, security, and governance in post-conflict countries, fragile states, and states in transition.

MORE FROM RACHEL KLEINFELD Advancing the Rule of Law Abroad: Next Generation Reform (pg. 16)

As the founding CEO of the Truman National Security Project, she spent nearly a decade leading a movement of national security, political, and military leaders working to promote people and policies that strengthen security, stability, rights, and human dignity in America and around the world. In 2011, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton appointed Kleinfeld to the Foreign Affairs Policy Board, which advises the secretary of state quarterly, a role she served through 2014.

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D EMOCRACY A N D RULE O F L AW

Thieves of State: Why Corruption Threatens Global Security

PUBLISHED BY

SA RA H C HAYES 2015 “A revolutionary book.”

—Anne-Marie Slaughter

Every day a new blaze seems to ignite: the bloody implosion of Iraq and Syria; the East-West standoff in Ukraine; abducted schoolgirls in northern Nigeria. Is there some thread tying these frightening international security crises together? In a riveting account that weaves history with fast-moving reportage and insider accounts from the Afghanistan war, Sarah Chayes identifies the unexpected link: corruption.

Since the late 1990s, corruption has reached such an extent that some governments resemble glorified criminal gangs, bent solely on their own enrichment.

These kleptocrats drive indignant populations to extremes—ranging from revolution to militant puritanical religion. Chayes plunges readers into some of the most venal environments on earth and examines what emerges: Afghans returning to the Taliban, Egyptians overthrowing the Mubarak government (but also redesigning Al-Qaeda), and Nigerians embracing both radical evangelical Christianity and the Islamist terror group Boko Haram.

In a thrilling argument connecting the Protestant Reformation to the Arab Spring, Thieves of State presents a powerful new way to understand global extremism. And it makes a compelling case that we must confront corruption, for it is a cause—not a result—of global instability.

MORE FROM SARAH CHAYES Corruption: The Unrecognized Threat to International Security

SA RA H C HAYES is a senior associate in Carnegie’s Democracy and Rule of Law Program and the South Asia Program.

Buy the book Paperback $19.95

Hardcover $49.95

Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble,

iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

978-0-39335-228-3 978-0-39324-653-7

Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 15

Closing Space: Democracy and Human Rights Support Under Fire

Development Aid Confronts Politics: The Almost Revolution

Advancing the Rule of Law Abroad: Next Generation Reform

T HO M A S CA ROT HER S SASKIA BRECHENMACHER

T HO MA S CA ROTH ERS DI ANE D E GRA MON T

RACH EL KLEIN FELD

2014

2013

After seeing its reach increase for decades, international support for democracy and human rights faces a serious challenge: more and more governments are erecting legal and logistical barriers to democracy and rights programs, publicly vilifying international aid groups and their local partners, and harassing such groups or expelling them altogether.

Despite the significant implications of the pushback, the roots and full scope of the phenomenon remain poorly understood and responses to it are often weak.

A new lens on development is changing the world of international aid. The overdue recognition that development in all sectors is an inherently political process is driving aid providers to try to learn how to think and act politically.

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Major donors are pursuing explicitly political goals alongside their traditional socioeconomic aims and introducing more politically informed methods throughout their work. Yet these changes face an array of external and internal obstacles.

Buy the book Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-401-5 Ebook $9.95 AND UP 978-0-87003-402-2 Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

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2012 In the modern era, political leaders and scholars have declared the rule of law to be essential to democracy, a necessity for economic growth, and a crucial tool in the fight for security at home and stability abroad. The United States has spent billions of dollars attempting to catalyze rule-of-law improvements within other countries.

Yet despite the importance and the hard work of hundreds of practitioners on the ground, the track record of rule-of-law promotion has been paltry.

Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-348-3 Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-349-0 Ebook $9.95 AND UP 978-0-87003-266-0 Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

D EMOCRACY A N D RULE O F L AW

D EMOCRACY AN D R U L E OF LAW EXPERTS

S EE A L SO

Egypt’s Salafists at a Crossroads

Beyond Magic Bullets in Governance Reform

ASHRAF EL-SHERIF

DIANE DE GRAMONT

2015

2014

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CarnegieEndowment.org/files/salafist_ crossroads.pdf

CarnegieEndowment.org/files/governanace_ magic_bullets.pdf

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s democracy and rule of law experts, including: MADRID Richard Youngs Senior Associate

WASHINGTON

The New Global Marketplace of Political Change THOMAS CAROTHERS

The Muslim Brotherhood and the Future of Political Islam in Egypt

OREN SAMET-MARRAM

ASHRAF EL-SHERIF

2015

2014

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CarnegieEndowment.org/files/global_ marketplace.pdf

CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ mb_future_egypt1.pdf

Governing Lagos: Unlocking the Politics of Reform DIANE DE GRAMONT

2014 FREE

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Accountability, Transparency, Participation, and Inclusion: A New Development Consensus?

Thomas Carothers

Vice President for Studies

Sarah Chayes

Senior Associate

Michele Dunne Senior Associate

Rachel Kleinfeld Senior Associate

Nathaniel Myers Visiting Scholar

THOMAS CAROTHERS SASKIA BRECHENMACHER

2014 FREE

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17

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Energy and Climate Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 19

Know Your Oil: Creating a Global Oil-Climate Index D EBORAH GORDON A DAM BRANDT J OUL E BERGE RSON J ONATHAN KOOM EY 2015 Oil is changing. Conventional oil resources are dwindling as tight oil, oil sands, heavy oils, and others emerge. Technological advances mean that these unconventional hydrocarbon deposits in once-unreachable areas are now viable resources. Meanwhile, scientific evidence is mounting that climate change is occurring, but the climate impacts of these new oils are not well understood. The Carnegie Endowment’s Energy and Climate Program, Stanford University, and the University of Calgary have developed a first-of-its-kind Oil-Climate Index (OCI) to compare these resources.

DEBORA H G ORD ON is director of Carnegie’s Energy and Climate

Program, where her research focuses on oil and climate change issues in North America and globally.

ADAM B RA N DT is an assistant professor in the Department of Energy Resources Engineering at Stanford University.

JO ULE B ERG ERSON is an assistant professor in the Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department and the Center for Environmental Engineering Research and Education in the Schulich School of Engineering at the University of Calgary.

JO NATH A N KOOMEY is a research fellow at the Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance at Stanford University.

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EN ERGY A N D CL IM AT E

EN ERGY A N D C L IM AT E EXPERTS

S EE ALSO

The Politics of Plenty: Balancing Climate and Energy Security

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s energy and climate experts, including:

DAVID BURWELL

2013 FREE

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Rethinking Urban Mobility: Sustainable Policies for the Century of the City SHI N-P E I TSAY V IC TO R I A HER R MANN 2013 Each week, more than 1 million people move from rural areas to cities around the world, placing huge demands on existing infrastructure—and especially on existing transport systems. Booming cities need contemporary mobility systems capable of transporting increasing numbers of people while doing the least possible harm to the natural environment. Multiple actors, including national and local governments, must work together to create environmentally and financially sustainable urban transport systems.

CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ politics_of_plenty.pdf

The Carbon Contained in Global Oils DEBORAH GORDON

2012

BEIJING Wang Tao

Resident Scholar

WASHINGTON David Burwell

Nonresident Senior Associate

Deborah Gordon Director

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David Livingston Associate

Policy Priorities for Advancing the U.S. Electric Vehicle Market DEBORAH GORDON DANIEL SPERLING DAVID LIVINGSTON

2012 FREE

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Europe Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 23

The Uncertain Legacy of Crisis: European Foreign Policy Faces the Future R I CHARD YOUNGS 2014 “A valuable analysis on how the long economic crisis has intensified the birth pangs of Europe’s common foreign and security policy.”

—John Peet, Europe editor, Economist

The European Union is mired in the worst crisis it has seen for many decades.

And the crisis does not stop at Europe’s edge. It threatens to undercut the EU’s ambitions to develop a coherent and active foreign policy, but it is also forcing European states to reevaluate their approach to security and defense.

MORE FROM RICHARD YOUNGS Climate Change and EU Security Policy: An Unmet Challenge From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Richard Youngs examines the legacy of the crisis and what it will mean for the EU’s international role. The fallout undermines the EU’s foreign policy capacity and tarnishes its normative brand, compelling some member states to focus on realpolitik and their own national-level policies. But there are also signs of enhanced European cooperation, greater international ambition, and deepened commitment to the values of a liberal world order. Youngs details how the EU can craft an effective foreign policy strategy while confronting an internal economic crisis and a reshaped global order.

Smart Geostrategy for the Eastern Partnership

R I CH A RD YOU N GS is a senior associate in Carnegie’s Democracy and Rule of Law Program. He is an expert on the foreign policy of the European Union, in particular on questions of democracy support.

A More Pluralist Approach to European Democracy Support

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978-0-87003-409-1 978-0-87003-410-7 978-0-87003-414-5

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E U RO PE

EU ROPE EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Europe experts, including: SEE A L SO

BERLIN Judy Dempsey

Are Prime Ministers Taking Over EU Foreign Policy?

A Moment of Opportunity in the EU-Turkey Relationship

STEFAN LEHNE

MARC PIERINI SINAN ÜLGEN

2015 FREE

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2015 FREE

2015 FREE

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Keeping EU-Asia Reengagement on Track RICHARD YOUNGS

Marc Pierini

Pierre Vimont

Senior Associate

HEIDELBERG Ulrich Speck AVAILABLE FALL 2015

Visiting Scholar

The Puzzle of Non-Western Democracy

ISTANBUL

RICHARD YOUNGS

2015 Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-428-2 Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-429-9

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Director, Carnegie Europe

CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ turkey_eu_opportunity.pdf

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CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ eu_asia_reengagement.pdf

Jan Techau

Visiting Scholar

2015 Download the paper

BRUSSELS

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Emotional Intelligence for EU Democracy HEATHER GRABBE STEFAN LEHNE

Nonresident Senior Associate and Editor in Chief, Strategic Europe

Sinan Ülgen

Visiting Scholar

MADRID Richard Youngs Senior Associate

OXFORD Gwendolyn Sasse

Nonresident Associate

VIENNA Stefan Lehne

Visiting Scholar

WASHINGTON Cornelius Adebahr Associate

Thomas Carothers

Vice President for Studies

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Middle East Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 27

PUBLISHED BY

The Second Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism MARWAN M UAS HE R 2014 “A manifesto for political pluralism in the Arab world—a liberating concept that has unfortunately been missing in much of the thus far disappointing ‘Arab Spring.‘“ —David Ignatius, Washington Post columnist

This important book looks at the tumultuous recent events in the Arab region in the context of long-term historical pressure to build societies that will respond to Arab citizens’ longing for freedom and opportunity. Only through the painstaking process of constructing an Arab world defined by pluralism and tolerance can this dream be realized.

Buy the book Hardcover $30.00 978-0-30018-639-0 Paperback $20.00 978-0-30021-263-1

Marwan Muasher asserts that all sides—the United States, Europe, Israel, and Arab governments alike—were deeply misguided in their thinking about Arab politics and society when the turmoil of the Arab Spring erupted. He explains the causes of the unrest, tracing them back to the first Arab Awakening, and warns of the forces today that threaten the success of the Second Arab Awakening. Hope rests with the new generation and its commitment to tolerance, diversity, the peaceful rotation of power, and inclusive economic growth, Muasher maintains. He calls on the West to rethink political Islam and the Arab-Israeli conflict, and he underscores the importance of efforts to strengthen education and expand traditional definitions of Arab citizenship for the longterm process of democratic transition.

MARWA N MUA SH ER is vice president for studies at the Carnegie

Endowment for International Peace, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East. Previously, Muasher served as foreign minister (2002–2004) and deputy prime minister (2004–2005) of Jordan.

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MID D L E E AST

Sectarian Politics in the Gulf: From the Iraq War to the Arab Uprisings

PUBLISHED BY

F R E DE RI C WEH R EY 2014 Foreign Affairs | A 2014 BOOK OF THE YEAR ON THE MIDDLE EAST Foreign Policy | A 2013 BOOK OF THE YEAR ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Beginning with the 2003 invasion of Iraq and concluding with the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings, Frederic Wehrey investigates the roots of the ShiaSunni divide now dominating the Persian Gulf ’s political landscape. Focusing on the three Gulf states affected most by sectarian tensions—Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait—Wehrey identifies the factors that have exacerbated or tempered sectarianism, including domestic political institutions, the media, clerical establishments, and the contagion effect of external regional events, such as the Iraq war, the 2006 Lebanon conflict, the Arab uprisings, and Syria’s civil war.

Wehrey builds a historical narrative of Shia activism in the Arab Gulf since 2003, linking regional events to the development of local Shia strategies and attitudes toward citizenship, political reform, and transnational identity. He finds that, while the Gulf Shia were inspired by their coreligionists in Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon, they ultimately pursued greater rights through a nonsectarian, nationalist approach. He also discovers that sectarianism in the region has largely been the product of the institutional weaknesses of Gulf states, leading to excessive alarm by entrenched Sunni elites and calculated attempts by regimes to discredit Shia political actors as proxies for Iran, Iraq, or Lebanese Hezbollah. Wehrey conducts interviews with nearly every major Shia leader, opinion-shaper, and activist in the Gulf Arab states, as well as prominent Sunni voices, and consults diverse Arabic-language sources.

Buy the book Hardcover $45.00 978-0-23116-512-9

Also available as ebook.

F R E D E R I C W E HR EY is a senior associate in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on political reform and security issues in the Arab Gulf states, Libya, and U.S. policy in the Middle East more broadly. He was previously a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation.

Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 29

SEE A LSO

Perilous Desert: Insecurity in the Sahara

Iran’s Nuclear Odyssey: Costs and Risks

E D I T ED BY

AL I VA EZ KAR I M SA DJA D POUR

F R E D E R I C W E HR EY AN O UA R B O UKHAR S 2013 The geopolitical significance of the Sahara is becoming painfully clear. Islamist militant groups and transnational criminal networks are operating in the region’s most fragile states, exploiting widespread corruption, weak government capacity, crushing poverty, and entrenched social and ethnic tensions.

The unrest spills over borders and aggravates protracted regional crises.

This insecurity raises urgent concerns for the broader Sahara and for the West. Perilous Desert details the sources of instability and what can be done to minimize the threat of simmering conflicts.

Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-403-9 Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-404-6 Ebook $9.95 AND UP 978-0-87003-405-3

2013 Iran’s half-century nuclear odyssey has been marked by enormous financial costs, unpredictable risks, and unclear motivations. The program’s covert history, coupled with the Iranian government’s prohibition of open media coverage of the nuclear issue, has prevented a much-needed internal debate about its cost-benefit rationale.

Critical questions about the program’s economic efficacy and safety have been left unanswered.

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/iran_ nuclear_odyssey.pdf

Taming the Militias: Building National Guards in Fractured Arab States FREDERIC WEHREY ARIEL I. AHRAM

2015 FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ fractured_national_guards.pdf

Egypt’s Nationalists Dominate in a Politics-Free Zone MICHELE DUNNE

2015 FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ egypt_nationalists.pdf

The Egyptian Armed Forces and the Remaking of an Economic Empire SHANA MARSHALL

2015 FREE

Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ egyptian_armed_forces.pdf

30 | Ca rn e g i e En d ow men t .o rg

MIDD L E E AST

MID D LE EA ST EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Middle East experts, including:

AMMAN

CAMBRIDGE

Marwan Muasher

Renad Mansour

AMSTERDAM

LONDON

Kawa Hassan

Carole Nakhle

BEIRUT

RABAT

Georges Fahmi

Mohammed Masbah

Vice President for Studies

The Reckoning: Tunisia’s Perilous Path to Democratic Stability ANOUAR BOUKHARS

2015 FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ tunisia_reckoning.pdf

Simmering Unrest and Succession Challenges in Oman MARC VALERI

2015

Visiting Scholar

CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ omani_spring.pdf

The Future of Big Business in the New Egypt AMR ADLY

Nonresident Scholar

El-Erian Fellow

Nonresident Scholar

Kheder Khaddour Visiting Scholar

TUNIS

Lina Khatib

Hamza Meddeb

Director, Carnegie Middle East Center

Raphaël Lefèvre

Nonresident Scholar

Visiting Scholar

WASHINGTON

Aline Matta

Joseph Bahout

Visiting Scholar

FREE

Download the paper

Nonresident Scholar

Farea al-Muslimi

Visiting Scholar

Anouar Boukhars

Visiting Scholar

Nonresident Scholar

Yezid Sayigh

Nathan J. Brown

Senior Associate

Nonresident Senior Associate

Maha Yahya

Michele Dunne

Senior Associate

2014

Senior Associate

Karim Sadjadpour

FREE

CAIRO

Senior Associate

Download the paper

Amr Adly

Frederic Wehrey

CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ big_business_egypt.pdf

Nonresident Scholar

Senior Associate

Katherine Wilkens

Deputy Director, Middle East Program

Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 31

32 | Ca rn e g i e En d ow men t .o rg

Nuclear Policy Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 33

s nuclear gic insight.

negie

sels, Center

G EORGE PE RKOV IC H SI N AN ÜLGEN 2015 Turkey, with a robust modern economy and growing energy needs, is pursuing a switch to nuclear power. But that shift is occurring in an environment fraught with security challenges: Turkey borders Iraq, Syria, and Iran—all states with nuclear or WMD ambitions or capabilities. As a NATO member, Turkey also hosts U.S. nuclear bombs on its territory, although some question the durability of this relationship.

TURKEY’S NUCLEAR FUTURE

s might uclear and

EDITED BY

PER K O VIC H A ND ÜLG E N

needs, rring in s Iraq, pabilities. territory,

Turkey’s Nuclear Future

This dynamic has naturally led to speculation that Turkish leaders might someday consider moving beyond a civilian course to develop nuclear weapons. Yet there has been remarkably little informed analysis and debate on Turkey’s nuclear future, either within the country or in broader international society.

This volume explores the current status and trajectory of Turkey’s nuclear program, adding historical perspective, analytical rigor, and strategic insight.

GEO RG E PERKOV ICH is vice president for studies at the Carnegie En-

dowment for International Peace. His research focuses on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation, with a concentration on South Asia, Iran, and the problem of justice in the international political economy.

S I NA N Ü LG EN is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on the implications of Turkish foreign policy for Europe and the United States, nuclear policy, and the security and economic aspects of the transatlantic relations.

Buy the book Paperback $19.95

Hardcover $49.95

Ebook $9.95 AND UP

Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble,

978-0-87003-416-9 iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

978-0-87003-415-2 978-0-87003-417-6

34 | Ca rn e g i e En d ow men t .o rg

N U CLEA R PO L ICY

Murky Waters: Naval Nuclear Dynamics in the Indian Ocean I SK A N D E R R EH MAN 2015 More than five years have passed since India launched its first ballistic missile submarine in July 2009. Meanwhile, Pakistan formally inaugurated a Naval Strategic Force Command headquarters in 2012 and has declared its intent to develop its own sea-based deterrent. As India and Pakistan develop their naval nuclear forces, they will enter increasingly murky waters. By further institutionalizing relations between their navies and by insisting on stronger transparency with regard to naval nuclear developments, both countries may succeed in adding a greater degree of stability to what otherwise promises to be a dangerously volatile maritime environment.

ISK A NDE R R EHMAN was an associate in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy

Program and a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow. His research focuses on security and crisis stability in Asia, specifically the geopolitical ramifications of naval nuclearization in the Indian Ocean. He is currently completing his doctorate in comparative politics at Sciences Po, Paris.

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/murky_waters.pdf

Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 35

Brazil’s Nuclear Kaleidoscope: An Evolving Identity TO G ZHA N K ASS ENOVA 2014 There is no shortage of international commentary on Brazil’s nuclear policy, especially its advanced nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear submarine program.

But remarkably little is understood about the domestic drivers behind Brazil’s nuclear choices.

This report fills the void. Based on extensive interviews in Brazil with current and former officials, industry representatives, technical experts, and leading academics, it reflects on how Brazilians think about and debate nuclear issues.

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/brazil_ nuclear_kaleidoscope_lo_res.pdf

Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike

Do Unto Others: Toward a Defensible Nuclear Doctrine

JAME S M. ACTON

2013

2014 The development of non-nuclear weapons that can strike distant targets in a short period of time has been a U.S. goal for more than a decade. Advocates argue that such Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) weapons could be used to counter antisatellite weapons or sophisticated defensive capabilities; deny a new proliferator the ability to employ its nuclear arsenal; and kill high-value terrorists.

Critics worry that CPGS weapons could create serious strategic risks, most notably of escalation—including to the nuclear level—in a conflict.

With some CPGS technologies reaching maturity and an acquisition decision approaching, the time is right for a national debate about the benefits and risks of CPGS. FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/cpgs.pdf

36 | Ca rn e g i e En dow men t .o rg

GEORG E PERKOV ICH

The debate surrounding U.S. nuclear policy focuses too narrowly on reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the American arsenal toward zero.

More important is preventing the use of nuclear weapons in whatever numbers they exist.

President Barack Obama should articulate a narrowed framework for the legitimate use of nuclear weapons that the United States believes would be defensible for others to follow as long as nuclear weapons remain.

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/do_unto_ others.pdf

N UCLEA R PO L ICY

NUCLEA R POLICY EXPERTS SEE A L SO

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research

Missile Defense: Confrontation and Cooperation

and analysis by Carnegie’s nuclear policy experts, including:

E D I T E D BY

ALEXEI ARBATOV VLADIMIR DVORKIN NATALIA BUBNOVA

2013

BERLIN

TEL AVIV

Mark Hibbs

Ariel (Eli) Levite

BRUSSELS

TOKYO

Pierre Goldschmidt

Tomoko Kurokawa

GENEVA

WASHINGTON

Shahram Chubin

James M. Acton

Senior Associate

Nonresident Senior Associate

FREE

Download the book CarnegieEndowment.org/files/Missile_ Defense_book_eng_fin2013.pdf

The China–India Nuclear Crossroads E D I T E D A N D T RA N S L AT E D BY

LORA SAALMAN

2012 Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-269-1 Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-270-7

Nonresident Senior Associate

Nonresident Senior Associate

The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir SEYED HOSSEIN MOUSAVIAN

2012 Buy the book

Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program

Sinan Ülgen

Togzhan Kassenova

Visiting Scholar

Associate

Duyeon Kim

LONDON

Associate

Paul Schulte

Nonresident Senior Associate

Li Bin

MOSCOW

William Norris

Scholar in Residence

Vladimir Dvorkin

George Perkovich

Vice President for Studies

Distinguished Military Fellow

Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-267-7

Petr Topychkanov Associate

Senior Associate

Associate and Stanton Fellow

Alexei Arbatov

Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-268-4

Ebook $9.95 AND UP 978-0-87003-302-5

Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program

Toby Dalton

ISTANBUL

Ebook $9.95 AND UP 978-0-87003-304-9 Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

Nonresident Scholar

Nicholas D. Wright Associate

Tong Zhao Associate

Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

Carn e g ie i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 37

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Russia and Eurasia Carn e g i e E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 39

PUBLISHED BY

Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post–Cold War Order RA JAN M E NON EU GENE RUM ER 2015 “... a clear, compelling, and eminently readable account of the origins, the nature, and the possible futures of the conflict, and of the implications for Europe and America.”

—Michael Mandelbaum, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Buy the book Hardcover $24.95 978-0-26202-904-9 Ebook

$17.95 978-0-26232-781-7

The current conflict in Ukraine has spawned the most serious crisis between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War. It has undermined European security, raised questions about NATO’s future, and put an end to one of the most ambitious projects of U.S. foreign policy—building a partnership with Russia. It also threatens to undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts on issues ranging from terrorism to nuclear proliferation. Each side is betting that political and economic pressure will force the other to blink first. Caught in this dangerous game of chicken, the West cannot afford to lose sight of the importance of stable relations with Russia.

This book puts the conflict in historical perspective by examining the evolution of the crisis and assessing its implications both for Ukraine and for Russia’s relations with the West more generally. Experts in the international relations of post-Soviet states, political scientists Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer clearly show what is at stake in Ukraine, explaining the key economic, political, and security challenges and prospects for overcoming them. They provide a comprehensive and accessible study of a conflict whose consequences will be felt for many years to come.

RAJAN MEN ON is Anne and Bernard Spitzer Professor of Political Science at the Powell School, City College of New York City, University of New York and senior research scholar at Columbia University.

EUGE N E RUMER is a senior associate and the director of Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program.

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RUSSIA A N D E U RAS IA RUSSIA A N D E U RAS IA

Great Catastrophe: Armenians and Turks in the Shadow of Genocide

PUBLISHED BY

T H O M A S D E WAAL 2015

“This magnificent book is the ideal introduction to a difficult subject. Historically rigorous but also full of compassion, it will educate the expert as well as the curious beginner.

—Stephen Kinzer, author of Crescent and Star: Turkey Between Two Worlds

The destruction of the Armenians of the Ottoman Empire in 1915–1916 was the greatest atrocity of World War I. Around one million Armenians were killed, and the survivors were scattered across the world. Although it is now a century old, the issue of what most of the world calls the Armenian Genocide of 1915 is still a live and divisive issue that mobilizes Armenians across the world, shapes the identity and politics of modern Turkey, and has consumed the attention of U.S. politicians for years.

Buy the book Hardcover $24.95 978-0-19935-069-8

Thomas de Waal looks at the aftermath and politics of the Armenian Genocide and tells the story of recent efforts by courageous Armenians, Kurds, and Turks to come to terms with the disaster as Turkey enters a new post-Kemalist era. The story of what happened to the Armenians in 1915–1916 is well-known. Here we are told the “history of the history” and the lesser-known story of what happened to Armenians, Kurds, and Turks in the century that followed.

Also available as ebook.

T H O M A S DE WAAL is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment, specializing primarily in the South Caucasus region comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia and their breakaway territories as well as the wider Black Sea region.

Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 41

RUSSIA BETWEEN PAST AND FUTURE

LILIA SHEVTSOVA

Interregnum: Russia Between Past and Future

The Fight for Influence: Russia in Central Asia

LILI A S HE V TSOVA

AL EXEY MA LA SH EN KO

2013

2014

After briefly waking up in 2011 and 2012, Russian society is now facing an authoritarian backlash. The pressure from below proved too weak to force the ruling elite to transform Russia. Trying to save the personalized power system, the authorities have turned to repression and expansionism while invoking the doctrine of containment of the West.

Russian influence in Central Asia is waning. Since attaining independence, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have forged their own paths—building relationships with outside powers and throwing off the last vestiges of Soviet domination. But in many ways, Moscow still sees Central Asia through the lens of the Soviet Union, and it struggles to redefine Russian relations with the region.

The Russian incursion into Ukraine has brought about the unraveling of the post–Cold War settlement, which will have unpredictable consequences for global security and the rules of the game.

FREE

Download the book CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ Interregnum-web2014.pdf

TH OMA S D E WA AL 2013 Ten years after its initial release, Black Garden remains the definitive account of war and peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the conflict over Nagorny Karabakh. Based on the author’s extensive experience in the region, Black Garden is the product of more than 120 original interviews in the South Caucasus, Moscow, and Washington, and a unique collection of historical primary sources.

Alexey Malashenko offers a comprehensive analysis of Russian policies and prospects in Central Asia. It is clear that Russian policy in the former Soviet space is entering uncharted territory. But does the ruling establishment understand the fundamental shifts under way?

The revised and updated tenth anniversary edition includes a new foreword and an expanded conclusion that analyzes the reasons for the intractability of the conflict and the prospects for its resolution.

Buy the book

Buy the book

Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-411-4 Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-412-1 Ebook $9.95 AND UP 978-0-87003-413-8 Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

4 2 | Ca rn e g i e En d ow men t .o rg

Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War, Anniversary Edition

PUBLISHED BY

Hardcover $25.00 978-0-81476-032-1

Also available as ebook.

RU RUSSIA SSIA AANNDD EEUURAS RASIA IA

R USSIA A N D EURA SIA EXPERTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia experts, including:

S EE A L SO

Exploring the Prospects for Russian-Turkish Cooperation in a Turbulent Neighborhood E D I T ED BY

MEMDUH KARAKULLUKÇU DMITRI TRENIN

2014 FREE

MOSCOW

VILNIUS

Alexei Arbatov

Balázs Jarábik

Scholar in Residence

Alexander Baunov

Senior Associate and Editor in Chief, Carnegie.ru

PARIS

Vladimir Dvorkin

Nonresident Scholar

Sabine Fischer

WASHINGTON

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Turkey2014_web_Eng.pdf

Alexander Gabuev

ALEXEY MALASHENKO

2014 FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Uzbekistan_web_Eng2014.pdf

The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great-Power Rivalry DMITRI TRENIN

2014

Bayram Balci

Distinguished Military Fellow

Visiting Researcher

Exploring Uzbekistan’s Potential Political Transition

Visiting Scholar

Senior Associate

Andrei Kolesnikov Senior Associate

Andrey Movchan

Ambassador James F. Collins Senior Associate and Diplomat in Residence

Thomas de Waal Senior Associate

Eugene Rumer

Senior Associate

Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, and Senior Associate

Alexey Malashenko

Richard Sokolsky

Scholar in Residence

Nikolay Kozhanov Nonresident Scholar

Maxim Samorukov

Deputy Editor, Carnegie.ru

Senior Associate

Paul Stronski

Senior Associate

Andrew S. Weiss

Vice President for Studies

Petr Topychkanov Associate

Dmitri Trenin

Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ ukraine_great_power_rivalry2014.pdf

43

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South Asia Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 45

Unity in Difference: Overcoming the U.S.-India Divide A SHL E Y J. TE L L IS 2015 U.S. President Barack Obama’s return to India in January 2015 carries the hope that Washington and New Delhi may succeed in placing their cooperation on firmer foundations. Achieving this objective will require reconciling American expectations of exchange-based relations with the Indian desire for a no-obligations partnership. This challenge is best handled through a set of complementary policies in Washington and New Delhi that together are most aptly characterized as “unity in difference.”

AS HLEY J. TELLIS is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues. While on assignment to the U.S. Department of State as senior adviser to the under secretary of state for political affairs, he was intimately involved in negotiating the civil nuclear agreement with India.

Previously, he was commissioned into the Foreign Service and served as senior adviser to the ambassador at the U.S. embassy in New Delhi. He also served on the National Security Council staff as special assistant to the president and senior director for strategic planning and Southwest Asia.

Prior to his government service, Tellis was senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation and professor of policy analysis at the RAND Graduate School.

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/unity_in_difference.pdf

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SOU T H AS IA

Getting India Back on Track: An Action Agenda for Reform E D I T ED BY

BIB E K DE B ROY ASHL E Y J. TEL L I S R EEC E TR E VO R 2014 India has fallen far and fast from the runaway growth rates it enjoyed in the first decade of the twenty-first century. In order to reverse this trend, New Delhi must seriously reflect on its policy choices across a wide range of issue areas.

Getting India Back on Track broadly coincides with the 2014 Indian elections to spur a public debate about the program that the next government should pursue in order to return the country to a path of high growth. It convenes some of India’s most accomplished analysts to recommend policies in every major sector of the Indian economy.

Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-425-1 Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-426-8

Employing India: Guaranteeing Jobs for the Rural Poor EDUA RD O ZEPEDA ET AL. 2013 India’s rural employment guarantee is a milestone in social policy and employment creation. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act was mandated in 2005 to implement an ambitious, demand-driven employment-creation program to benefit the rural poor through projects that improve agricultural productivity and alleviate land degradation. Guaranteeing the right of rural households to 100 days of unskilled manual work, the program’s size sets a worldwide precedent. It has achieved impressive results, but the act continues to pose immense design and management challenges.

FREE

Crux of Asia: China, India, and the Emerging Global Order EDITED BY

A SH LEY J. TELLIS SEA N MIRSKI 2013 The rise of China and India as major world powers promises to test the established global order in the coming decades. As the two powers grow, they are bound to change the current international system—with profound implications for themselves, the United States, and the world. And whether they agree on the changes to be made, especially when it comes to their relationship with the West, will influence the system’s future character.

A close examination of Chinese and Indian perspectives on the fundamentals of the emerging international order reveals that Sino-Indian differences on many issues of both bilateral and global significance are stark.

FREE

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/india_ rural_employment.pdf

Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/crux_of_ asia.pdf

Ebook $9.95 AND UP 978-0-87003-427-5 Available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, iTunes, and Sony Reader Store.

Carn e g ie E n dowm e n t fo r I n te rn ati o n al Pea ce | 47

SOU T H AS IA

SOU TH A SIA EX PE RTS

Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s South Asia experts, including:

S EE A LSO

Opportunities Unbound: Sustaining the Transformation in U.S.-Indian Relations ASHL E Y J. TE L L I S 2013 The evolving U.S.-Indian strategic partnership holds great potential for both countries. India’s economic growth and its ties to the United States can assist its global rise, which contributes to keeping the peace in Asia, provided New Delhi and Washington sustain concerted cooperation. And India’s emerging markets promise to be the key instrument for enlarging India’s power while remaining a rich opportunity for U.S. businesses.

The 2008 U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement did away with the biggest obstacle in the relationship—India’s murky status in the global nonproliferation regime. Both sides must now take steps to make the partnership fruitful.

FREE

Making Waves: Aiding India’s Next-Generation Aircraft Carrier ASHLEY J. TELLIS

2015 FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ making_waves.pdf

The India-Australia Strategic Relationship: Defining Realistic Expectations FREDERIC GRARE

2014

C. Raja Mohan

Nonresident Senior Associate

PARIS Gilles Dorronsoro Nonresident Scholar

Christophe Jaffrelot Nonresident Scholar

WASHINGTON Sarah Chayes

Senior Associate

Frederic Grare

Director, South Asia Program, and Senior Associate

George Perkovich

Vice President for Studies

FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ india_australia_strat_rel.pdf

Tamanna Salikuddin Nonresident Scholar

Stephen Tankel

Nonresident Scholar

Reforming India’s Financial System ILA PATNAIK AJAY SHAH

Download the report

2014

CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ opportunities_unbound.pdf

FREE

Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ reform_indian_financial_system.pdf

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NEW DELHI

Ashley J. Tellis Senior Associate

Milan Vaishnav Associate

Bernd von Muenchow-Pohl Nonresident Scholar

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