Carmel-by-the-Sea, Carmel Point, Greater Carmel, Carmel Valley, Pebble Beach, Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q3 2020 Market Report
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Letter from Courtney
Q3 2020 Market Report
Dear Friends, One thing is clear: people are moving. People are moving out of the cities and into smaller towns like the Monterey Peninsula. People are moving out of California. People are downsizing. Upsizing, you name it. People are moving. The pandemic has changed the way people feel about their spaces and the result equals movement. The exodus from the city remains. 80% of our buyers are from the Bay Area. There was a first wave of buyers that came the beginning of summer. These buyers had urgency and the means to make an immediate move. Turn key homes were king. This second wave of buyers plan to move, but need to make a change before they can do so, whether they need to sell a house first, change jobs, change schools, etc. All local markets are up tremendously from last year. The numbers are simply off the charts. Prices are up. Although we aren’t necessarily seeing opportunistic pricing, there have been more multiple offer scenarios than ever before. And October numbers are expected to continue this extraordinary trend. There is of course one big question. What will 2021 look like? And there is one big driver: INVENTORY. Inventory is slim across all markets. Carmel-by-the-Sea’s inventory is down 50%. The number of sales will decrease simply because we just don’t have as many homes to sell.
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
My advice, if you can, sell now, buy later. We believe the market will remain healthy into 2021. Our core market drivers will remain for another year. But we don’t expect as many multiple offers and we anticipate a return to a less urgent marketplace. Please take a look at the following pages to dive into the numbers for specific local regions. And as always, I welcome the opportunity to discuss any questions you may have. Best,
Courtney Jones
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
My Significant Sales in Q3
Q3 2020 Market Report
1096 Sawmill Gulch, Pebble Beach ■ SP: $2,402,000 Represented Buyer
7092 Valley Greens Circle, Carmel SP: $2,151,000 ■ Represented Buyer
67 Chamisal Pass, Carmel SP: $1,100,000 ■ Represented Buyer
25725 Loma Del Rey, Carmel SP: $1,050,000 ■ Represented Buyer
12723 Sundance Lane, Carmel Valley SP: $960,000 ■ Represented Seller
12724 Sundance Lane, Carmel Valley SP: $1,045,000 ■ Represented Seller
106 Calera Canyon Road, Corral de Tierra SP: $960,000 ■ Represented Seller
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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Q2 2020 Market Report
Market Overview
T
he 3rd quarter of 2020 has turned out to be one of the busiest quarters in our market’s history. As the coming pages will demonstrate, demand across all 5 markets we track has been extraordinary. New records have been set in total sales volume, average sales price and the number of transactions in several of our markets. It is important to note that we report this surge in business with the utmost humility and care. We understand that so many business are dealing with extraordinary challenges as a result of COVID-19. Our thoughts and best wishes go out to all businesses and people in our community and around the world. We pray for your safety and a fast recovery as the world prepares to recover in the months ahead. One positive impact for the Monterey Peninsula is that along with this surge in activity comes a number of fantastic families moving into our homes, sending children to our schools, shopping and dining in our town. We believe this prepares us well for a speedy recovery on the other side of the COVID crisis. Our thoughts on the real estate market going forward remain very positive. We believe that the underlying demand is based on a shift in lifestyle preference for a lot of people. The Monterey Peninsula offers space, beauty, indooroutdoor living and a slower pace of life than a number of the larger cities. While the economic and political environment continues to shift, we believe the underlying drivers for demand in our market to remain strong well into next year. We hope you find the attached data useful in evaluating the results of our market. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is anything we can do to help you with your real estate plans in our marketplace.
Dolores South of Seventh â– P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â– Fax: 831.624.7338
Table of Contents
Q3 2020 Market Report
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point �������������������������������������������� 6 Greater Carmel ���������������������������������������� 8 The areas outside of Camel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Carmel Valley ������������������������������������������10 Pebble Beach ������������������������������������������� 12 Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast ���������������������������14
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
About Carmel-by-the-Sea
C
armel-by-the-Sea realized a surge in demand from the larger neighboring markets and experienced extraordinary growth in Q3, 2020. There were 74 sales up over 300% from Q2 and up almost 100% over Q3 2019. Sales in the under $1M range decreased, partially because average sale price increased by 24% in the quarter. Sales in the $3M-5M range saw the most growth over last year, increasing from 2 sales in Q3 2019 to 20 sales in Q3 2020. Total sales volume of $191M was almost 3 times higher the same period last year.
Q3 2020 Market Report
Average Selling Price
24% vs Q2 2020 45% vs Q3 2019
Sales Volume
28% 22%
2% 6%
$191.7M 412% vs Q2 2020 184% vs Q3 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
43%
$2,569,677
Units Sold
<$1M | 2 $1M-2M | 52 $2M-3M | 34 $3M-5M | 27 $5M+ | 7
74
311% vs Q2 2020 95% vs Q3 2019
Days on Market*
47
15% vs Q2 2020 39% vs Q3 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
Q3 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales
Days on Market*
$2.8M
120
90
$2.1M 60
$1.4M 30
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Average
Median
* DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter $200M
80
$150M
60
$2.8M
$2.1M $100M
40 $1.4M
$50M
20
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
2019 2020
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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Greater Carmel
Q3 2020 Market Report
The areas outside of Camel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
About Greater Carmel
T
here were 38 sales in Carmel during Q3, which is almost double the number of sales in this market during the first half of the year. Average sales price was up to $1.8M representing a 35% increase over last quarter and 25% increase over Q3 of 2019. Total sales volume was up almost 300% over Q2 and 100% over Q3 of 2019. Over half of the sales were in the $1M-2M. Availability in the area is currently very tight with only 2.2 months of available inventory of homes for sale at the end of Q3.
Average Selling Price
$1,801,092 35% vs Q2 2020 25% vs Q3 2019
Sales Volume
$68.4M 294% vs Q2 2020 106% vs Q3 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
9% 17%
22% 52%
<$1M | 15 $1M-2M | 36 $2M-3M | 12 $3M-5M | 6 $5M+ | 0
Units Sold
38
192% vs Q2 2020 65% vs Q3 2019
Days on Market*
55
175% vs Q2 2020 18% vs Q3 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Greater Carmel
Q3 2020 Market Report
The areas outside of Camel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$2M
100
$1.5M
75
$1M
50
$0.5M
25
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Average
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
30
$70M
$1.75M
$1.5M
$53M
20 $1.25M
$35M
10 $1M
$18M
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
9
Carmel Valley
About Carmel Valley
C
armel Valley also experienced extraordinary growth in the number of sales transacting during the quarter. There were 96 properties that changed hands in Q3 up dramatically from Q2 and up over 80% over Q3 of 2019. Average sales price for the quarter was $1.614M up over 30% over last year at this time. The vast majority of the sales in Carmel Valley are under $2M but, we have seen four sales this year over $5M which is double that of all of last year, mostly due to the strong increase in demand for living in the Santa Lucia Preserve.
Q3 2020 Market Report
Average Selling Price
23% vs Q2 2020 32% vs Q3 2019
Sales Volume
10%
41%
37%
$155M 237% vs Q2 2020 139% vs Q3 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
2% 10%
$1,614,404
Units Sold
<$1M | 72 $1M-2M | 64 $2M-3M | 18 $3M-5M | 17 $5M+ | 4
96
167% vs Q2 2020 81% vs Q3 2019
Days on Market*
53
10% vs Q2 2020 50% vs Q3 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Valley
Q3 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$2.25M
120
90 $1.5M
60 $0.75M
30
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Average
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter $160M
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
100
$2M
80
$123M
$1.5M
60
$85M 40
$1M
$48M
20
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
11
Pebble Beach
About Pebble Beach
P
ebble Beach closed 60 transactions in Q3 of 2020 which is 3 times the number of homes sold in Q2 of this year and almost 2 times the number of homes sold in any quarter last year. Total sales dollar volume of $207,616,708 is 2 times higher than the same quarter last year and almost 2 times the total volume sold in the previous 2 quarters combined. Year-to-date there has been an increase of 30% in sales in the $3M and up price range. There have been 16 sales over $5M so far this year. There is only 1.9 months left of available inventory.
Q3 2020 Market Report
Average Selling Price
$3,460,278 9% vs Q2 2020 9% vs Q3 2019
Sales Volume
174% vs Q2 2020 99% vs Q3 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
39% 10% 17%
17% 18%
$207.6M Units Sold
<$1M | 10 $1M-2M | 37 $2M-3M | 16 $3M-5M | 17 $5M+ | 16
60
200% vs Q2 2020 82% vs Q3 2019
Days on Market*
73
30% vs Q2 2020 42% vs Q3 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Pebble Beach
Q3 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$4M
130
$3.25M
97.5
$2.5M
65
$1.75M
32.5
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Average
* DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
60
$220M
$4.5M
48
$170M
$3.5M
36 $120M
$2.5M
24 $70M
$1.5M
12
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
13
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
About Carmel Highlands
T
his market has benefited the most from the increased demand for space and beauty. In a market where we see the number of quarterly sales in the low single digit range, Q3 had a total of 28 sales. Year to date there have been more homes sold than in any of the previous 13 years. The averages sales price is up over 40% from this time last year. There have been 10 sales over $5M year-todate as compared to only one last year. Total sales volume is up nearly 10 times the volume of the same quarter last year.
Average Selling Price
30%
27% 14%
22%
$2,924,361 44% vs Q2 2020 42% vs Q3 2019
Sales Volume
$81.9M 213% vs Q2 2020 894% vs Q3 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
8%
Q3 2020 Market Report
Units Sold
<$1M | 3 $1M-2M | 11 $2M-3M | 8 $3M-5M | 5 $5M+ | 10
28
460% vs Q2 2020 600% vs Q3 2019
Days on Market
97
25% vs Q2 2020 62% vs Q3 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q3 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$6.5M
200
$5M
150
$3.5M
100
$2M
50
2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3
Average
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter $90M
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
30
$7M
$68M
$5.25M 20
$46M
$3.5M 10
$23M
$1.75M
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
15
A Cornerstone in Luxury Real Estate for Over One Hundred Years
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com