Ogarajet

Page 1

FIRST QUARTER

FO S TERING CONFIDENCE
2024
MARKET OVERVIEW SALES SUPPLY SUMMARY CORE MARKETS 2 3 4 5 MARKET OVERVIEW SALES SUPPLY SUMMARY LIGHT J ETS 6 7 8 9 MARKET OVERVIEW SALES SUPPLY SUMMARY MID-SIZE 10 11 12 13 MARKET OVERVIEW SALES SUPPLY SUMMARY SUPER-MID 14 15 16 17 MARKET OVERVIEW SALES SUPPLY SUMMARY LONG-RANGE 18 19 20 21 1 INTRODUCTION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The business aviation sector, like many industries, operates within a landscape shaped by various macroeconomic factors and market conditions. As we review the dynamics at play in the business aviation market, it becomes evident that while challenges persist, there are notable signs of resilience and adaptability that have allowed the markets to remain sustainable.

Firstly, the election year casts its shadow over the business aviation market. Historically, election years bring about uncertainties regarding potential policy shi ts and regulatory changes, influencing economic sentiments and business decisions. As a result, this uncertainty is seen in business aviation market dynamics.

Secondly, the future of BONUS Depreciation is uncertain, as discussions ensue regarding the policy's extension. Incentives like this play a pivotal role in influencing investment decisions within the aviation sector, impacting aircra t acquisition and fleet management strategies. However, amidst these uncertainties, the robust backlog of OEMs continues to bolster the pre-owned aircra t markets. This backlog serves as a stabilizing force, creating a disparity between market demand and available supply, contributing to market strength.

Turning our attention to the market conditions, we observe a landscape characterized by both challenges and opportunities. Market conditions are showing signs of leveling o , inching closer to what appears to be a new equilibrium. This stabilization indicates a maturing market adapting from the once completely sellers-driven market. One trend emerging in the normalizing post-COVID market is the realization of uneducated or misguided aircra t purchase decisions. Many aircra t owners are confronting the realities of their purchases, which has led to di cult situations concerning falling residual values and significant financial events compounded by limited due diligence. In today's market, transaction times are slowing. This slowdown reflects a more deliberate and thorough decision-making process, contributing to more informed and mutually beneficial transactions.

Pricing dynamics are undergoing a shi t. This trend is driven by various factors, including changing supply and demand dynamics driving the new market equilibrium, as well as the ability of customers to narrow preferences based on price and pedigree.

The market witnessed strong transactional pace in Q1, surpassing the levels observed in Q1 of 2023. This uptick in transactional activity is a testament to the post-pandemic realized demand. While activity is not feverish, the remaining demand led sellers to reprice based on more "neutral" market conditions. Moreover, we have a positive outlook on the pipeline of pending aircra t, which has not only remained firm, but has shown signs of growth. This leads us to be optimistic and have confidence in the market's trajectory going into Q2, a trend that will continue to result in positive sales momentum.

While supply has increased in nearly all markets, the overall percentage of fleet available for sale remains relatively low in historical contexts, particularly for late-model and modern aircra t. Total supply in our core markets represents approximately 6% of the fleet for sale, with the average discount from Ask to Sale price stabilizing around 7.5%. This stabilization in pricing reflects a balance between buyer and seller expectations, contributing to a healthy and sustainable market environment. The stabilization in pricing and supply will create resiliency for asset values of the most desirable supply.

The lockstep between changing supply and sales underscores the ever-present demand of business aircra t, with buyers and sellers actively engaging in transactions despite prevailing uncertainties.

Regardless of the market dynamics at play, successful aircra t transactions begin with leveraging the available opportunities, mitigating external market/aircra t risks, and managing the process-associated factors to make informed and educated decisions. We believe that given current market dynamics and trends, we will not only see continued health in the markets but there will be more predictability in the transactional processes and aircra t being transacted.

As we navigate through the uncertainties and challenges confronting the business aviation market, it becomes evident that resilience and adaptability are prevalent in the normalizing business aviation markets. Despite some of the potential headwinds, the markets remain steadfast.

Austin Bass Business Intelligence Manager

CORE MARKETS

LIGHT-SIZE MID-SIZE SUPER MID-SIZE LONG-RANGE

OGARA Core Markets

Q1: JANUARY - MARCH 2024

In our Core Markets, conditions remained consistent throughout the first quarter, with stronger transactional activity averaging between 35 to 40 units sold per month. This surpasses the performance of Q1 2023 and suggests we are approaching a level of stability. To illustrate this stability, pricing spreads were around 7.5%, mirroring pre-pandemic averages. Additionally, we observed segmentation in supply quality, and associated pricing, within individual markets. This resulted in a balanced distribution of sales across different vintages. While the current transactional pace indicates a potential improvement over 2023, we are concerned about the sustainability of current market trends.

TRANSACTIONS BY QUARTER AND YEAR

Aggregate retail transaction data from our core markets

Figures below can vary +/- 3% based on external factors

644 / $6.846 Billion

686 / $7.158 Billion

KEY MARKET METRICS

Key market metrics across our core markets

AVAILABLE SUPPLY

Total number of available aircraft across our core markets

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

AVG. ASK TO SALE DISCOUNT

Average discount from ask to sale price in our core markets

Formula: ((Sale Price - Asking Price) / Asking Price) * -1

6-MONTH ABSORPTION RATE

Demand expressed in months of supply for our core markets

Formula: Total Supply / Avg. Sales per Month

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

2023 2022
200 400 600 800
0% 5% 10% Historical Avg.
2 2024 108 / $1.029 Billion 10 MONTHS OF SUPPLY SELLER'S MARKET 0 36
In-service Fleet 9,350 For Sale Aircraft 558 Percentage For Sale 5.9% Avg. Days to Sell 149

QUARTERLY SALES BY CLASS

Aggregate retail transactions by quarter and cabin class

Long-Range

SALES BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total sales segmented by days on market

VINTAGE OF SALES

Vintage of trailing 6 months sales in our core markets Sold units and the corresponding percent for the vintages fleet

Aircraft Vintage

20 Years+

15-20 Years

10-15 Years

5-10 Years

0-5 Years

QUARTERLY SALES GRAPHED

Each transaction from the quarter graphed by segment Q2-21Q4-21Q2-22Q4-22Q2-23Q4-23

0-5 Years

5-10 Years

10-15 Years

15-20 Years

20 Years+

Long-Range

0 50 100 150 200 250 71 66 39 36 38 40 69 26 36 47 65 24 55 50 68 39 50 34 63 36 34 49 72 28 49 42 73 39 34 34 54 22 36 36 44 26 41 38 57 30 32 40 54 16 39 32 55 30 49 Units 4.1% 71 Units 3.5% 99 Units 4.1% 65 Units 3.4% 54 Units 3.1%
Light Mid Super Mid $0M $10M $20M $30M $40M $50M $60M 29.6% 18.6% 31.7% 20.1% <2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months
3 Super Mid Mid Light
Days on Market

SUPPLY BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total supply segmented by days on market

Long-Range

CURRENT SUPPLY GRAPHED

Current supply by total time, days on market and vintage

VINTAGE OF SUPPLY

Vintage of actively marketed supply in our core markets Available units and the corresponding percent of the vintages' fleet for sale

Aircraft Vintage

15-20 Years

20 Years+

Q2/21Q4/21Q2/22Q4/22Q2/23Q4/23 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 44 64 54 64 44 54 41 41 57 80 67 62 78 62 48 56 73 58 85 66 80 6868 39 42 37 46 46 60 62 76 70 69 62 57 62 32 27 33 51 42 67 46 59 63 57 71 41 150 Units 6.2% 157 Units 7.7% 106 Units 8.8% 71 Units 4.0% 74 Units 3.9% 0K 2K 4K 6K 8K 10K 12K 14K 16K 18K20K 0 200 400 600 800 Days on Market 33.6% 18.7% 19.1% 28.7% Days on Market
15-20 Years 10-15 Years
<2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months 4 Super Mid Mid Light 0-5 Years
20 Years+
5-10 Years 0-5 Years
5-10 Years 10-15 Years
Aggregate new listings by quarter and cabin class

OGARA's core markets summarized by make/model

Citation CJ2

Citation CJ2+

Citation CJ3

Citation CJ3+

Citation CJ4

Citation CJ4 GEN2

Hawker 400XP

Hawker 400XPR

Nextant 400XT

Nextant 400XTi

Phenom 100

Phenom 100E

Phenom 100EV

Mid

Super Mid

Citation Excel

Citation XLS

Citation XLS+

Citation XLS GEN 2

Hawker 800XP

Hawker 800XPi

Hawker 900XP

Phenom 300

Phenom 300E

Citation Sovereign

Challenger 300

Challenger 350

Challenger 3500

Falcon 2000EX

Falcon 2000EX EASy

Falcon 2000LX

Falcon 2000LXS

Gulfstream G200

Gulfstream G280

Challenger 604

Challenger 605

Gulfstream G350

Gulfstream G450

Gulfstream GV

Gulfstream G-500

Gulfstream G550

Gulfstream G650

Gulfstream G650ER

$4.281 $3.700 $2.218 $2.875 $2.100 $3.200 $2.465 $12.225 $8.200 $8.325 $5.428 $4.475 $3.132 $5.196 $3.912 $2.772 $2.543 $2.390 $3.482 $2.435 $12.149 $7.971 $9.290 $5.331 $4.661 $3.218

OGARA'S CORE MARKETS
Size Aircraft Model Supply Total Fleet Fleet % For Sale Off Market Supply Recent Sales Avg. Days on Market Avg. Days to Sell 6-Month Abs. Rate Avg. Ask Price Avg. Sale Price
Light
Averages
4.5 Mos 24.0 Mos 4.0 Mos 15.0 Mos 36.0 Mos 18.0 Mos 27.0 Mos 4.8 Mos 9.3 Mos 3.8 Mos 13.2 Mos 12.0 Mos 14.6 Mos 149 202 115 174 198 250 168 79 121 131 153 135 170 168 373 239 128 157 179 188 97 111 101 156 161 129 8 1 18 2 1 1 6 6 11 19 10 6 7 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 6.7% 7.4% 4.2% 13.9% 22.2% 50.0% 12.2% 4.3% 4.9% 4.5% 5.4% 5.3% 7.0% 89 54 289 36 27 6 222 94 345 265 411 225 244 6 4 12 5 6 3 27 4 17 12 22 12 17 $12.100 $7.554 $4.900 $2.543 $8.613 $5.860 $4.304 $12.108 $7.788 $5.558 $3.767 $2.930 $16.288 $9.422 $5.944 $3.916 7.2 Mos 3.8 Mos 6.0 Mos 14.6 Mos 18.0 Mos 10.8 Mos 6.0 Mos 93 157 173 125 64 57 123 105 141 178 108 201 133 162 121 95 6 25 12 0 16 0 4 10 15 0 0 2 0 1 0 7 7 2 1.7% 3.4% 6.6% 12.0% 9.9% 13.2% 3.8% 5.5% 3.9% 347 446 181 50 393 38 312 327 356 6 15 12 6 39 5 12 18 14 $18.505 $5.673 $25.583 $12.120 $7.625 $24.000 $19.093 $11.550 $7.729 $16.287 $5.709 $26.278 $15.581 $11.782 $11.000 $18.848 $11.651 $7.358 9.0 Mos 21.0 Mos 14.0 Mos 10.5 Mos 12.0 Mos 6.0 Mos 6.0 Mos 6.9 Mos 10.2 Mos 86 129 198 108 305 101 116 174 116 128 205 84 145 341 52 160 143 194 6 12 3 8 3 0 1 15 19 13 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 5 3.2% 14.3% 4.9% 9.9% 4.3% 4.0% 1.4% 3.4% 4.9% 6.3% 280 244 143 141 94 25 71 439 450 349 9 35 7 14 4 1 1 15 22 22 $52.560 $34.875 $21.161 $8.483 $14.138 $12.367 $6.621 $50.137 $37.919 $19.392 $13.500 $9.827 $14.624 $12.452 $6.534 12.0 Mos 7.5 Mos 10.4 Mos 10.0 Mos 18.0 Mos 13.3 Mos 12.5 Mos 103 465 186 212 132 177 262 170 121 149 59 214 178 218 266 6 2 24 0 12 9 0 8 13 3 2 3 0 1 2 0 1 7 4.5% 3.2% 6.1% 11.1% 10.5% 7.6% 7.0% 6.9% 403 154 618 9 190 353 11 287 361 18 5 38 1 20 27 0 20 25 $10.849 $10.819 10.0 Mos 149 160 8 1 5.9% 229 14 5 Long-Range
CITATION CJ2/2+
CJ3/3+ CITATION CJ4/GEN2 PHENOM 100/100E/100EV HAWKER 400XP/XT/XTi LIGHT-SIZE
CITATION

Core Mid-Size Jets

Core Light Jets

Q1: JANUARY - MARCH 2024

The light jet segment performed below expectations compared to other segments. This was due to a slowdown in transactions, coinciding with an increase in supply. Some markets are experiencing concerning trends with an abundance of supply, particularly the older and higher-time aircraft. For instance, within the CJ series, CJ4s are performing the best, followed by CJ3s, and both have outperformed the CJ2s. While this alone isn't a major concern, it is noteworthy as light jets typically perform strongly in Q1 compared to other segments. Coupled with this, the light jet segment often acts as a leading indicator, hinting that this slowdown may be indicative of a slower year ahead amidst a broad set of uncertainties.

TRANSACTIONS BY QUARTER AND YEAR

Aggregate retail transaction data from our core markets

Figures below can vary +/- 3% based on external factors

188 / $1,000 Million

186 / $962.0 Million

Key market metrics across our core markets

AVAILABLE SUPPLY

Total number of available aircraft across our core markets

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

AVG. ASK TO SALE DISCOUNT

Average discount from ask to sale price in our core markets

Formula: ((Sale Price - Asking Price) / Asking Price) * -1

6-MONTH ABSORPTION RATE

Demand expressed in months of supply for our core markets

Formula: Total Supply / Avg. Sales per Month

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

2024 2023 2022
50 100 150 200
KEY MARKET METRICS
0% 5% 10% Historical Avg.
In-service Fleet
147
6 24 / $115.8 Million 9 MONTHS OF SUPPLY SELLER'S MARKET 0 36
2,301 For Sale Aircraft
Percentage For Sale 6.4% Avg. Days to Sell 137

QUARTERLY SALES BY VINTAGE

Aggregate retail transactions by quarter and age

0-5 Years

5-10 Years

10-15 Years

15-20 Years

20 Years+

SALES BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total sales segmented by days on market

Days on Market

VINTAGE OF SALES

Vintage of trailing 6 months sales in our core markets Sold units and the corresponding percent for the vintages fleet

Aircraft Vintage

20 Years+

15-20 Years

10-15 Years

5-10 Years

0-5 Years

QUARTERLY SALES GRAPHED

Each transaction from the quarter graphed by segment

Q2-21Q4-21Q2-22Q4-22Q2-23Q4-23 0 20 40 60 80 10 26 14 28 14 15 10 14 12 10 13 14 12 16 26 11 25 10 10 10 13 10 11 13 12 19 20 12 9 8 8 8 5 4 4 7 9 5 7 4 8 4 9 6 8 7 5 7 9 7 4 14 Units 2.5% 30 Units 3.9% 19 Units 5.2% 27 Units 6.2% 6 Units 3.5%
2007 400XP 2009 100 2009 100 2010 100 2006 400XP 2001 CJ2 2010 400XP 2017 100EV 2017 100EV 2005 400XP 2002 CJ2 2008 CJ2+ 2008 CJ2+ 2020 100EV 2008 CJ2+ 2014 CJ3 2016 CJ3+ 2020 CJ3+ 2016 CJ3+ 2014 CJ4 2015 CJ4 2019 CJ3+ 2020 CJ4 2022 CJ4 Gen2 $0M $2M $4M $6M $8M $10M 32.3% 16.7% 24.0% 27.1% <2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months
7

SUPPLY BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total supply segmented by days on market

CURRENT SUPPLY GRAPHED

Current supply by total time, days on market and vintage

VINTAGE OF SUPPLY

Vintage of actively marketed supply in our core markets Available units and the corresponding percent of the vintages' fleet for sale

Aircraft Vintage

Q2/21Q4/21Q2/22Q4/22Q2/23Q4/23 0 20 40 60 80 24 14 14 24 11 23 13 15 17 26 29 31 18 22 23 23 12 10 13 16 17 12 21 12 17 17 19 17 17 10 16 17 13 11 11 11 15 20 444 5 7 8 6 9 7 6 8 9 9 9 7 5 27 Units 6.2% 17 Units 4.7% 30 Units 3.9% 52 Units 9.1% 21 Units 12.1% 0K1K2K3K4K5K6K7K8K9K10K11K12K13K14K15K Total Time 0 200 400 600 800 Days on Market 29.9% 19.0% 17.7% 33.3%
Days on Market
20 Years+ 15-20 Years 10-15 Years 5-10 Years 0-5 Years <2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months 8
10-15 Years 15-20 Years 20 Years+
Aggregate new listings by quarter and age
0-5 Years 5-10 Years
0-5 Years 5-10 Years 10-15 Years 15-20 Years 20 Years+

Phenom 100/100E/100EV's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 22 Units / 5.1%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 27

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 5 Months

Average Days to Sell: 128 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Citation CJ2/2+'s

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 29 Units / 6.2%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 13

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 13 Months

Average Days to Sell: 154 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Hawker 400XP/XPR/XT/XTi's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 41 Units / 14.1%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 10

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 25 Months

Average Days to Sell: 181 Days

Market Sentiment: Buyer's Market

Citation CJ3/3+'s

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 34 Units / 5.0%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 29

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 7 Months

Average Days to Sell: 139 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Citation CJ4/GEN 2's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 21 Units / 4.8%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 17

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 8 Months

Average Days to Sell: 108 Days

Market Sentiment: Seller's Market

MAJOR CHANGES BY MODEL Trailing 90 day status changes by aircraft model 5 10 15 20 25 New Supply 5 10 15 20 25 Lost Supply CJ4 GEN 2 CJ4 CJ3+ CJ3 CJ2+ CJ2 400XTi 400XT 400XPR 400XP 100EV 100E 100
9 For Sale Off Market Withdrawn Sold Sale Pending

PHENOM 300/300E HAWKER 800XP/XPI

HAWKER 900XP

CITATION EXCEL CITATION XLS/XLS+ MID-SIZE

Core Mid-Size Jets

OGARA Core Markets

Q1: JANUARY - MARCH 2024

The Mid-Size segment continues to excel, with the supply showing signs of stabilization rather than significant growth. Supply has leveled off at under 5.5%, making the market favorable for sellers due to limited supply. Days to Sell remains the lowest across all our tracked segments, indicating strong demand. While the overall market remains healthy, late-model aircraft are underperforming expectations. Supply remains low for the late-model vintage, but transactional volume has fallen, noticeably lower when compared to previous quarters. Given the stable market conditions, we anticipate this segment will remain insulated from broader market shifts, largely due to continued and sustained demand.

TRANSACTIONS BY QUARTER AND YEAR

Aggregate retail transaction data from our core markets

Figures below can vary +/- 3% based on external factors

174 / $1,089 Million

183 / $1,008 Million

Key market metrics across our core markets

AVAILABLE SUPPLY

Total number of available aircraft across our core markets

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

AVG. ASK TO SALE DISCOUNT

Average discount from ask to sale price in our core markets

Formula: ((Sale Price - Asking Price) / Asking Price) * -1

6-MONTH ABSORPTION RATE

Demand expressed in months of supply for our core markets

Formula: Total Supply / Avg. Sales per Month

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

50 100 150 200
KEY MARKET METRICS
0% 5% 10% 15% Historical Avg.
In-service Fleet 2,438 For Sale Aircraft 127 Percentage For Sale 5.2% Avg. Days to
128 10 28 / $156.8 Million 9 MONTHS OF SUPPLY SELLER'S MARKET 0 36 2024 2023 2022
Sell

QUARTERLY SALES BY VINTAGE

Aggregate retail transactions by quarter and age

0-5 Years

5-10 Years

10-15 Years

15-20 Years

20 Years+

SALES BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total sales segmented by days on market

Days on Market

VINTAGE OF SALES

Vintage of trailing 6 months sales in our core markets Sold units and the corresponding percent for the vintages fleet

Aircraft Vintage

QUARTERLY SALES GRAPHED

Each transaction from the quarter graphed by segment

Q2-21Q4-21Q2-22Q4-22Q2-23Q4-23 0 20 40 60 80 100 15 14 24 17 23 10 13 1412 17 15 16 18 14 11 14 11 10 13 12 10 13 12 12 8 8 9 9 9 5 6 8 4 9 9 6 8 5 5 8 9 7 6 7 5 9 5 7 6 4 8 8 21 Units 3.8% 18 Units 3.7% 24 Units 4.7% 17 Units 4.0% 8 Units 1.7%
20 Years+ 15-20 Years 10-15 Years 5-10 Years 0-5 Years 2000 800XP 2002 800XP 2002 800XP 1999 800XP 2003 800XP 1996 800XP 2003 800XP 2000 Excel 2004 Excel 2002 800XP 2002 Excel 2003 Excel 2004 Excel 2010 900XP 2010 300 2006 XLS 2013 300 2008 XLS 2006 XLS 2011 300 2015 300 2008 XLS+ 2014 300 2014 300 2014 300 2017 300 2021 300E 2022 300E $0M $2M $4M $6M $8M $10M $12M 25.0% 13.6% 31.8% 29.5% <2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months
11

SUPPLY BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total supply segmented by days on market

CURRENT SUPPLY GRAPHED

Current supply by total time, days on market and vintage

VINTAGE OF SUPPLY

Vintage of actively marketed supply in our core markets Available units and the corresponding percent of the vintages' fleet for sale

Q2/21Q4/21Q2/22Q4/22Q2/23Q4/23 0 20 40 60 80 14 14 14 14 14 14 19 13 26 12 12 15 13 12 16 11 13 2113 23 11 12 1818 17 13 17 16 13 16 11 10 11 10 19 26 16 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 8 6 7 7 8 6 6 6 13 Units 2.8% 12 Units 2.8% 29 Units 5.7% 35 Units 7.2% 38 Units 6.8% 0K1K2K3K4K5K6K7K8K9K10K11K12K13K14K15K16K Total Time 0 100 200 300 400 500 Days on Market 28.8% 20.8% 22.4% 28.0% Days on Market
20 Years+ 15-20 Years 10-15 Years 5-10 Years 0-5 Years <2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months 12
20 Years+
Aircraft Vintage
0-5 Years 5-10 Years 10-15 Years 15-20 Years 20 Years+ 0-5 Years 5-10 Years 10-15 Years 15-20 Years
Aggregate new listings by quarter and age

Phenom 300/300E's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 21 Units / 2.7%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 31

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 4 Months

Average Days to Sell: 146 Days

Market Sentiment: Seller's Market

Hawker 900XP's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 12 Units / 6.6%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 12

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 6 Months

Average Days to Sell: 173 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Citation XLS's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 18 Units / 5.5%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 10

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 11 Months

Average Days to Sell: 57 Days

Market Sentiment: Seller's Market

Hawker 800XP/XPi's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 45 Units / 10.2%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 16

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 17 Months

Average Days to Sell: 125 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Citation Excel's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 14 Units / 4.0%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 15

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 6 Months

Average Days to Sell: 123 Days

Market Sentiment: Seller's Market

Citation XLS+/GEN 2's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 17 Units / 4.9%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 4

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 26 Months

Average Days to Sell: 64 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

MAJOR CHANGES BY MODEL Trailing 90 day status changes by aircraft model 5 10 15 20 25 New Supply 5 10 15 20 25 Lost Supply XLS Gen 2 XLS+ XLS Excel 900XP 800XPi 800XP 300E 300
13 For Sale Off Market Withdrawn Sold Sale Pending
CITATION SOVEREIGN CHALLENGER 300/350 FALCON 2000EX/EASy/LX/LXS GULFSTREAM G200 GULFSTREAM G280 SUPER MID-SIZE

Core Super-Mid Jets

KEY MARKET METRICS

Key market metrics across our core markets

Q1: Q1: JANUARY JANUARY - - MARCH MARCH 2024 2024

Q1: JANUARY - MARCH 2024

Despite transactional pace nearly doubling levels seen in Q1 2023, the supply of aircraft has continued to build given the volume of new aircraft coming to market. While the Super-Mid markets can be volatile, the net change to supply over the last year has been inline with what we have seen so far in Q1, indicating that the market isn’t seeing an acceleration in worsening market conditions, rather a continuation of what we saw for the majority of 2023. Furthermore, we have seen an increase in the number of newly pending aircraft, indicating that the segment will continue to see similar conditions With the following data in mind, we anticipate that the market will continue to absorb aircraft sufficiently to avoid any major market shifts.

TRANSACTIONS BY QUARTER AND YEAR

Aggregate retail transaction data from our core markets

Figures below can vary +/- 3% based on external factors

142 / $1.822 Billion

156 / $1.950 Billion

In-service Fleet

2,228 For Sale Aircraft 130 Percentage For Sale

5.8%

AVAILABLE SUPPLY

Avg. Days to Sell 137

Total number of available aircraft across our core markets

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

AVG. ASK TO SALE DISCOUNT

Average discount from ask to sale price in our core markets

Formula: ((Sale Price - Asking Price) / Asking Price) * -1

6-MONTH ABSORPTION RATE

Demand expressed in months of supply for our core markets

Formula: Total Supply / Avg. Sales per Month

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

2023 2022
2024
60 80 100 120 140
0% 5% 10% 15% Historical Avg.
14 26 / $0.301 Billion 10 MONTHS OF SUPPLY SELLER'S MARKET 0 36

QUARTERLY SALES BY VINTAGE

Aggregate retail transactions by quarter and age

0-5 Years

5-10 Years

10-15 Years

15-20 Years

20 Years+

QUARTERLY SALES GRAPHED

Each transaction from the quarter graphed by segment

SALES BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total sales segmented by days on market

Days on Market

VINTAGE OF SALES

Vintage of trailing 6 months sales in our core markets Sold units and the corresponding percent for the vintages fleet

Aircraft Vintage

Q2-21Q4-21Q2-22Q4-22Q2-23Q4-23 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 21 15 14 19 14 10 23 14 15 10 11 10 11 12 12 12 13 16 12 14 10 12 8 8 6 9 6 9 5 8 3 5 3 3 9 8 3 7 6 4 7 3 7 3 9 1 Units 1.4% 27 Units 4.8% 24 Units 4.2% 16 Units 3.2% 12 Units 2.3%
15-20 Years 10-15 Years
2000 G200 2004 G200 2005 G200 2006 Sovereign 2006 2000EX EA.. 2006 Sovereign 2004 2000EX EA.. 2008 Sovereign 2005 300 2011 Sovereign 2008 300 2009 300 2008 300 2006 2000LX 2010 300 2008 2000LX 2010 300 2013 300 2010 300 2009 2000LX 2014 350 2017 G280 2016 350 2017 350 2018 350 2018 350 $0M $5M $10M $15M $20M 21.3% 23.8% 43.8% 11.3% <2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months
20 Years+
5-10 Years 0-5 Years
15

SUPPLY BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total supply segmented by days on market

CURRENT SUPPLY GRAPHED

Current supply by total time, days on market and vintage

VINTAGE OF SUPPLY

Vintage of actively marketed supply in our core markets Available units and the corresponding percent of the vintages' fleet for sale

Aircraft Vintage

Q2/21Q4/21Q2/22Q4/22Q2/23Q4/23 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 14 14 14 14 12 11 19 15 12 20 12 19 16 27 16 25 23 13 13 12 11 15 15 11 17 18 12 10 19 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 5 6 7 8 6 9 7 9 6 9 9 3 15 Units 2.9% 20 Units 4.0% 45 Units 7.8% 40 Units 7.1% 10 Units 13.9% 0K1K2K3K4K5K6K7K8K9K10K11K12K13K14K15K Total Time 0 100 200 300 400 500 Days on Market 32.5% 15.1% 23.0% 29.4%
Days on Market
20 Years+ 15-20 Years 10-15 Years 5-10 Years 0-5 Years <2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months 16
20 Years+ 0-5 Years 5-10 Years 10-15 Years 15-20 Years 20 Years+ Aggregate new listings by quarter and age
0-5 Years 5-10 Years 10-15 Years 15-20 Years

Challenger 300's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 22 Units / 4.9%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 19

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 7 Months

Average Days to Sell: 174 Days Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Falcon 2000EX/EX EASy/LX/LXS's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 26 Units / 6.5%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 14

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 12 Months

Average Days to Sell: 159 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Gulfstream G200's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 35 Units / 14.5%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 12

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 21 Months

Average Days to Sell: 129 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Challenger 350/3500's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 16 Units / 3.1%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 16

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 6 Months

Average Days to Sell: 116 Days Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Citation Sovereign's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 22 Units / 6.3%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 13

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 10 Months

Average Days to Sell: 116 Days

Market Sentiment: Seller's Market

Gulfstream G280's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 9 Units / 3.2%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 6

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 9 Months

Average Days to Sell: 86 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

MAJOR CHANGES BY MODEL Trailing 90 day status changes by aircraft model 5 10 15 20 25 New Supply 5 10 15 20 25 Lost Supply Sovereign G280 G200 2000LXS 2000LX 2000EX EASy 2000EX 350 300
17 For Sale Off Market Withdrawn Sold Sale Pending

GULFSTREAM G550

GULFSTREAM G650/ER LONG-RANGE

CHALLENGER 604/605 GULFSTREAM GV GULFSTREAM G450

Core Long-Range Jets

Q1: JANUARY - MARCH 2024

While the Long Range segment exhibits the weakest metrics among our core markets, its performance in Q1 was notably strong. Supply saw only moderate growth, as sales exceeded expectations in terms of volume. This pattern has persisted for the past four quarters, with new supply gradually decreasing each quarter. Moreover, there has been a significant uptick in sales of aircraft listed for more than four months, signaling a healthy market finding equilibrium. This shift from a seller's market to a more balanced one is a positive sign. Given the current level of activity, we anticipate the market to remain stable without significant fluctuations beyond standard seasonality.

TRANSACTIONS BY QUARTER AND YEAR

Aggregate retail transaction data from our core markets

Figures below can vary +/- 3% based on external factors

139 / $2.941 Billion

161 / $3.238 Billion

Key market metrics across our core markets

2,383 For Sale Aircraft 154 Percentage For Sale

6.5%

AVAILABLE SUPPLY

Total number of available aircraft across our core markets In-service Fleet

Avg. Days to Sell 199

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

AVG. ASK TO SALE DISCOUNT

Average discount from ask to sale price in our core markets

Formula: ((Sale Price - Asking Price) / Asking Price) * -1

6-MONTH ABSORPTION RATE

Demand expressed in months of supply for our core markets

Formula: Total Supply / Avg. Sales per Month

10/194/2010/204/2110/214/2210/224/2310/234/24

2024 2023 2022
50 100 150 200
KEY MARKET METRICS
0% 5% 10% 15% Historical Avg.
18 12 MONTHS OF SUPPLY SELLER'S MARKET 0 36 30 / $0.472 Billion

SALES BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total sales segmented by days on market

QUARTERLY SALES GRAPHED

Each transaction from the quarter graphed by segment

VINTAGE OF SALES

Vintage of trailing 6 months sales in our core markets Sold units and the corresponding percent for the vintages fleet

Q2-21Q4-21Q2-22Q4-22Q2-23Q4-23 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 11 14 15 11 18 11 13 28 19 12 13 12 15 11 10 10 18 11 11 10 11 9 5 6 4 4 6 7 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 6 5 8 5 9 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 4 Aircraft Vintage 20 Years+ 15-20 Years 10-15 Years 5-10 Years 0-5 Years 40.5% 21.6% 28.4% 9.5% <2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months Days on Market 0-5 Years 5-10 Years 10-15 Years 15-20 Years 20 Years+
QUARTERLY SALES BY VINTAGE Aggregate retail transactions by quarter and age
5 5 9 8 21 Units 5.2% 12 Units 2.9% 23 Units 3.9% 13 Units 2.1% 7 Units 2.0% 1999 604 1996 604 2001 604 2002 604 2002 GV 2004 604 2000 GV 1997 GV 2006 604 1999 GV 2001 GV 1996 GV 2000 GV 2009 G450 2011 605 2011 605 2006 G550 2007 G550 2011 605 2010 605 2013 G450 2008 G550 2015 G450 2013 G450 2011 G550 2013 G550 2016 G550 2018 G550 2017 G650ER 2023 G650ER $0M $10M $20M $30M $40M $50M $60M 19

SUPPLY BY DAYS ON MARKET

Percentage of total supply segmented by days on market

0-5 Years

5-10 Years 10-15 Years 15-20 Years

VINTAGE OF SUPPLY

Vintage of actively marketed supply in our core markets Available units and the corresponding percent of the vintages' fleet for sale

Aircraft Vintage

20 Years+

15-20 Years

10-15 Years

5-10 Years

0-5 Years

CURRENT SUPPLY GRAPHED

Current supply by total time, days on market and vintage

10-15 Years

15-20 Years 20 Years+

Q2/21Q4/21Q2/22Q4/22Q2/23Q4/23 0 20 40 60 80 14 14 24 14 14 11 20 17 17 17 22 10 12 10 1210 16 15 13 15 12 13 11 10 10 12 16 13 16 19 25 10 22 18 10 11 5 7 5 8 6 8 99 77 7 5 9 6 9 9 8 7 6 77 5 16 Units 4.6% 25 Units 4.0% 46 Units 7.8% 30 Units 7.3% 37 Units 9.1% 0K 2K 4K 6K 8K 10K 12K 14K 16K 18K Total Time 0 200 400 600 Days on Market 41.8% 19.6% 14.4% 24.2% Days on Market
<2 Months 2-4 Months 4-6 Months >6 Months 20
20 Years+ 0-5 Years 5-10 Years
Aggregate new listings by quarter and age

Challenger 604's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 25 Units / 6.9%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 13

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 13 Months

Average Days to Sell: 262 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Gulfstream G350/G450's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 27 Units / 7.7%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 9

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 18 Months

Average Days to Sell: 132 Days Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Gulfstream G-500/G550's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 39 Units / 6.2%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 24

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 11 Months

Average Days to Sell: 186 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Challenger 605's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 20 Units / 7.0%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 8

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 13 Months

Average Days to Sell: 177 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Gulfstream GV's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 20 Units / 10.5%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 12

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 10 Months

Average Days to Sell: 212 Days

Market Sentiment: Neutral Market

Gulfstream G650/ER's

Supply / Fleet Percentage For Sale: 23 Units / 4.1%

Trailing 6-Month Sales: 8

Trailing 6-Month Absorption Rate: 11 Months

Average Days to Sell: 215 Days

Market Sentiment: Seller's Market

MAJOR CHANGES BY MODEL Trailing 90 day status changes by aircraft model 5 10 15 20 25 30 New Supply 5 10 15 20 25 30 Lost Supply G650ER G650 G550 G-500 GV G450 605 604
21 For Sale Off Market Withdrawn Sold Sale Pending

THE OGARA TEAM

200+ Years Of Combined Aviation Experience

JOHNNY FOSTER President & CEO

JOHN FOSTER Executive Vice President & Founder

MATT HUFF Vice President, Technical Services

ASHLEY CHARNLEY Vice President, Business Integration

AARON SMELSKY Director of Sales Support

HENRY RAMOS Sales Executive

SAM CAMPOS Sales Executive

DUSTIN CORDIER Sales Executive

CHADD SMITH Sales Executive

CHANDLER BROWN Executive Sales Engineer

ADAM BATTIATO Business Intelligence Analyst

RACHEL WALSH Business Intelligence Analyst

AUSTIN BASS Business Intelligence Manager Marketing Manager

JESSICA ANDERSON Art Director

JARED ORICH Technical Services Manager

Technical Services

MATT RODGERS Project Coordinator

fostering confidence www.OGARAJETS.com +1 770 462 7372 ogarajets@ogarajets.com

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