The Future of Meat: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities Explored Through 2029
John Deere Warns of Major Losses from Tariffs Squeeze
Canada Removes Retaliatory Tariffs on CUSMA-compliant U.S. Goods
Tariffs Threaten to Reshape North America’s Meat Processing Industry
Fork in the Road: Rethinking Canada’s Agricultural Trade Future
Beef Advocacy Canada
Relaunches Advocacy
Training Platform
5 6 8 12 18 20 24 26 28
Prices September 2025
U.S. Closes Door on Small Canadian Food Exporters
The Future of Meat: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities Explored Through 2029
John Deere Warns of Major Losses from Tariffs Squeeze
Rabobank: Geopolitics and Bird Flu to Shape the 2025/26 Poultry Outlook
Tariffs Threaten to Reshape North America’s Meat Processing Industry
Military Study Finds Pork Protein Aids Recovery
Fork in the Road: Rethinking Canada’s Agricultural Trade Future
Hungry for Protein and Quality, U.S. Consumers
Shrug Off High Beef
PUBLISHER
Ray Blumenfeld ray@meatbusinesspro.com
CO-PUBLISHER
Deb Wilson deborah@meatbusinesspro.com
VP SALES & MARKETING
Murray Hill murray@meatbusinesspro.com
DIGITAL MEDIA EDITOR
Cam Patterson cam@meatbusinesspro.com
CREATIVE DIRECTOR Patrick Cairns
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Brian Earnest, Beatrice Moen, Cam Patterson, Jack Roberts
Meat Business Pro is published 12 times a year by We Communications West Inc
BEEF ADVOCACY CANADA RELAUNCHES ADVOCACY TRAINING PLATFORM
Beef Advocacy Canada (BAC), the flagship advocacy program for Canadian beef producers and industry champions, has released an updated and expanded version of its advocacy training platform.
Designed to equip beef advocates with timely, practical tools to spotlight their role in Canada’s food system and engage meaningfully with key audiences, the updated program reflects today’s communication challenges and opportunities in the evolving food and agriculture landscape. The refreshed BAC program includes updated digital modules and sector-specific advocacy resources for everyone from ranchers to retailers.
Originally launched to empower those involved in the beef sector to share accurate information and connect with consumers, the reimagined BAC curriculum focuses on areas of public interest including animal care and welfare, sustainability and nutrition. Courses continue to be web-based, interactive and self-guided. The full program takes approximately 3 hours to finish and progress can be saved to complete at a participants’ own pace.
The contents of this publication may not be reproduced by any means in whole or in part, without prior written consent from the publisher
“This is about helping the people closest to beef production speak confidently and authentically about what they do, why it matters, and how it fits into the future of food,” said Amie Peck, Executive Director of Public & Stakeholder Engagement. “Beef Advocacy Canada is more relevant, accessible and flexible—built for busy people who want to make a difference.”
The program is open to Canadians with a passion for beef, as well as a desire to become effective communicators—whether online, on the farm, or at the grocery store. Graduates will join a growing national network of informed, engaged advocates working to amplify the positive story of Canadian beef and the hardworking people who raise it.
To celebrate the release of the updated program, the first 50 people to finish the Beef Advocacy Canada course after September 1, 2025, will be included in a draw for a $100 gift card to The Keg Steakhouse + Bar.
To learn more or enroll in the updated Beef Advocacy Canada program, visit: www.beefadvocacy.ca
U.S. CLOSES DOOR ON SMALL CANADIAN FOOD EXPORTERS
By Dr. Sylvain Charlebois
Washington has shut down a trade channel that has quietly sustained hundreds of Canadian food entrepreneurs.
By ending the de minimis exemption—the rule that lets small shipments under US$800 cross the border dutyfree—American policymakers are putting new costs and red tape on the very jam makers, chocolatiers and specialty food exporters who rely on this rule to reach their first customers south of the border.
This was never about bulk commodities. Wheat, beef and canola oil still move under the United StatesMexico-Canada Agreement with zero tariffs. What is being dismantled is the hidden artery that kept small players alive: the Nova Scotia jam maker shipping gift boxes to Vermont, the B.C. chocolatier sending truffles to Seattle, the Ontario pet treat company tapping into the booming specialty market.
Independent stores in New York, Chicago and Los Angeles also counted on these small, frequent Canadian shipments to diversify their shelves. That reliance means American consumers, too, will see fewer Canadian brands and higher prices.
Estimates suggest that between $500 million and $1 billion worth of Canadian food exports to the U.S. move each year under the $800 threshold—a fraction of Canada’s $40-plus billion agri-food trade. The figure looks minor, but for the companies involved it often represents their entire U.S. strategy.
Market access is not only about tonnage; it is about competition, choice and the chance for Canadian food culture to make its mark abroad. When small firms lose that ability, entire product categories vanish along with local jobs and community investment.
Ottawa could take steps of its own. Canada’s de minimis threshold is only C$150, a fraction of the former U.S. level. In practice, Canadian consumers never enjoyed the same duty-free benefit when buying from the U.S., while Canadian exporters built their entry strategies around Washington’s much higher limit. The contrast makes Ottawa’s inaction even harder to defend.
Raising Canada’s threshold would benefit consumers at home and give Ottawa a stronger footing to demand reciprocity in Washington.
Shrugging this off as a technicality is a policy failure. Ottawa has known for years that small exporters are vulnerable, yet it has done little to shield them. If Washington is willing to raise barriers, Canada must be ready to defend its entrepreneurs.
The contradiction is stark. USMCA safeguards largescale trade, yet Washington is dismantling the very system that nurtured the small businesses that the agreement was supposed to help. The message to Canadian exporters is blunt: scale up or stay home.
Trade disputes often play out as billion-dollar chess matches. But the pawns—small shipments, craft producers, specialty stores—give life to Canada’s food economy.
That is why this fight matters: protecting small exporters is not charity; it is preserving competition and innovation. The end of the de minimis exemption is more than a technical rule change. It is a reminder that when protectionism rises, it is the smallest who pay the highest price.
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.
THE FUTURE OF MEAT: TRENDS, CHALLENGES, AND OPPORTUNITIES EXPLORED THROUGH 2029
ResearchAndMarkets.com recently released a new report entitled Opportunities in the Global Meat Sector 2025.
The report provides an overview of current meat scenario regarding the future outlook in terms of ingredients, product claims, labeling, distribution, and packaging. The analysis also covers regional overview across five regions - Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, Americas, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe - highlighting industry size, growth drivers, latest developments, and future inhibitors for the regions.
The global meat sector is expected to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3% over 2024-29, to reach $1.12 trillion in 2029. Asia-Pacific was the largest regional market, with value sales at $408.1 billion in 2024. Over the forecast period, the Asia-Pacific meat sector is expected to register a volume CAGR of 2.5%, to reach $461 billion in 2029.
The growing consumer emphasis on healthier meat products is stimulating the demand for leaner meats and products with added nutritional benefits in the sector. There is a rising focus on sustainable farming practices, with producers adopting measures to reduce carbon footprints and improve animal welfare, responding to consumer demand for ethically sourced products.. As a result, manufacturers are formulating products with such aspects to improve their shares.
REPORT SCOPE
It includes analysis on the following:
• Global snapshot: Includes executive summary, current sector scenarios in terms of ingredients, manufacturer claims, labeling, and packaging. The section also touches on the key growth enablers and inhibitors for the meat sector.
https://www.beaconmetals.com
• Sector snapshot: The analysis provides a global overview, along with regional and category-level data and analysis. It also includes regional overview across five regions-Americas, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Western Europehighlighting sector size and evolution, value and volume shares by category, and growth drivers for each region.
• Consumer trends: Provides an overview of evolving consumer trends, supported by the analyst's in-house consumer surveys, and product examples.
• Country deep-dive: Provides risk-reward analysis of the top high-potential countries in each region based on market assessment, economic development, governance indicators, sociodemographic factors, and technological infrastructure. Provides a deep-dive analysis of 10 high-potential countries covering value growth during 2024-29, consumer demographics, and key trends. It also includes regional analysis covering the outlook for each region.
• Competitive environment and brand shares: Provides an overview of the leading companies and brands at global and regional levels. Market shares of brands and private labels in each region are also detailed.
• Distribution overview: Provides an analysis of the leading distribution channels in the global meat sector in 2024. It covers modern retail, traditional retail, cash & carries & warehouse clubs, specialist retail, direct, and other distribution channels.
• Packaging analysis: The report provides percentage share (in 2024) and growth analysis (during 2024-29) for various pack materials, pack types, closures, and primary outer types based on volume sales of meat.
• Select industry metrics: The section provides topline statistics and analysis for different alternate datasets, such as patent filings, job analytics, and deals in 2024.
REASONS TO BUY
• Manufacturers and retailers seek latest information on how the market is evolving to formulate their sales and marketing strategies. There is also demand for authentic market data with a high level of detail. This report has been created to provide its readers with upto-date information and analysis to uncover emerging opportunities of growth within the sector in the region.
• The report provides a detailed analysis of the countries in the region, covering the key challenges, competitive landscape and demographic analysis, that can help companies gain insight into the country specific nuances.
• The analysts have also placed a significant emphasis on the key trends that drive consumer choice and the future opportunities that can be explored in the region, than can help companies in revenue expansion.
• To gain competitive intelligence about leading brands in the sector in the region with information about their market share and growth rates. For more information about this report, visit https:// www.researchandmarkets.com/r/31ncsk
ResearchAndMarkets.com is the world's leading source for international market research reports and market data. We provide you with the latest data on international and regional markets, key industries, the top companies, new products and the latest trends.
JOHN DEERE WARNS OF MAJOR LOSSES FROM TARIFFS SQUEEZE
John Deere, one of America’s most iconic manufacturers of agricultural machinery, is sounding alarms about the escalating financial toll of tariffs. The company recently revised its annual outlook, warning investors, farmers, and policymakers that it now expects tariff-related costs to reach $600 million by the end of its fiscal year in October, up from a previous estimate of $500 million.
The warning highlights how deeply trade policies ripple through supply chains, farm communities, and financial markets. Rising material costs and slowing demand are converging into a perfect storm for Deere, which has long been considered a bellwether for the health of the agricultural economy.
A SHARP HIT TO PROFITS
In its latest quarterly earnings report, Deere revealed that its third-quarter net income dropped to $1.29 billion, down from $1.73 billion in the same period a year earlier. Revenue slid nearly 9 percent to $10.36 billion, underscoring how tariffs are weighing not only on costs but also on sales.
Deere’s troubles are not confined to accounting ledgers. The company has already absorbed about $300 million in extra tariff-related expenses this year, primarily linked to higher costs for essential materials like steel, aluminum, copper, and computer chips. It anticipates another $300 million in costs in the final quarter, pushing the total to the daunting $600 million mark.
John Deere is one of the most visible corporate casualties of trade disputes. While the company has weathered downturns before, such as falling commodity prices or interest-rate shocks, the unique combination of elevated costs and weakened demand presents a particularly difficult challenge.
WEAKENING SALES OUTLOOK
The company’s executives have trimmed sales expectations across nearly all of its major segments. Deere projects a 15 to 20% decline in sales of production and precision agriculture equipment, which includes large tractors, combines, and sprayers. These machines are central to modern farming operations, but their high price tags make them especially vulnerable when farmers’ finances are tight.
FARMERS POSTPONE PURCHASES
The impact of tariffs is not confined to Deere’s balance sheet. Across rural America, farmers are feeling the squeeze from higher costs and uncertainty. Tariffs on steel and aluminum, combined with retaliatory measures in export markets, have raised the cost of farm inputs while reducing profitability in crop markets.
As a result, many farmers are delaying purchases of new machinery, choosing instead to repair older equipment or buy used alternatives. For Deere, this shift represents not just a temporary setback but a structural challenge: if demand for new machines continues to lag, recovery could take years.
WALL STREET REACTS
Investors have been quick to respond. Deere’s share price fell 6 to 7% following the earnings announcement, erasing billions of dollars in market capitalization. Analysts noted that while the broader machinery sector is facing pressure, Deere’s reliance on large-ticket agricultural sales makes it particularly vulnerable to global trade tensions.
For long-term investors, the question is whether Deere’s challenges are cyclical or structural. If tariffs ease, costs could decline and demand could rebound. But if trade barriers persist or expand, the company may face extended periods of suppressed growth.
BROADER IMPLICATIONS FOR THE AGRICULTURAL ECONO
Deere’s warning carries weight far beyond Wall Street. The company is one of the largest employers in the Midwest, with tens of thousands of workers in Illinois, Iowa, and beyond. When Deere struggles, the ripple effects extend to suppliers, dealerships, and rural communities that depend on a healthy farm economy.
Moreover, Deere is often viewed as a barometer for farmer sentiment. Declining sales suggest that farmers are cautious, wary of making big investments amid volatile markets. This hesitation could hinder adoption of new technologies, such as precision agriculture tools that improve efficiency and sustainability.
If the trend continues, the consequences may extend to food production itself. Farmers operating with older, less efficient equipment could face higher costs and lower yields, making U.S. agriculture less competitive globally.
A POLICY FLASHPOINT
The growing financial toll on Deere underscores the stakes in ongoing trade debates. Tariffs, once billed as a tool to strengthen domestic industries, are proving costly for manufacturers that rely on global supply chains. For Deere, which sources key components and materials internationally, the impact is unavoidable.
Some industry groups are already calling on policymakers to reconsider the breadth and duration of tariff measures. They argue that while the goal of protecting U.S. industry is valid, the unintended consequences are punishing both producers and consumers.
LOOKING AHEAD
Deere’s leadership has emphasized resilience, noting that the company has survived past downturns and remains committed to innovation and efficiency. However, executives acknowledge that the near-term outlook is challenging. With sales projected to fall sharply and costs continuing to rise, the company faces one of its most difficult operating environments in recent memory.
For farmers, investors, and policymakers alike, Deere’s forecast serves as a sobering reminder of how trade policy decisions reverberate through the economy. As one of America’s most recognizable industrial giants, John Deere’s struggles highlight the delicate balance between protecting domestic industries and preserving the competitiveness of global supply chains.
CMB: And then you were attending the Canadian Beef conference in Calgary and you won.
In the months ahead, all eyes will be on whether tariffs ease, commodity markets stabilize, and farmers regain the confidence to invest. Until then, Deere’s warning stands as both a financial and symbolic marker of the toll that tariffs can exact on American industry.
DF: Yeah! That was a very nice moment for us. But I don’t like to use the word win actually. However, being recognized for our commitment was a real honour. If you want to know the truth, it was a pretty humbling
HUNGRY FOR PROTEIN AND QUALITY, U.S. CONSUMERS SHRUG OFF HIGH BEEF PRICES
By Brian Earnest
Despite record high prices, consumers aren’t willing to sacrifice beef, at least not yet.
When retail prices for any consumer product reach record high levels, the corresponding drop in demand usually materializes in short order. Beef appears to be among the few exceptions to that rule, having defied common expectations surrounding price elasticity. Retail grocery prices for beef skyrocketed in recent years and show no signs of descending any time soon. But surprisingly, demand has not softened — it’s actually edged upward. According to USDA data, the all-fresh retail beef demand index in the second quarter climbed to its highest level in at least 25 years.
The remarkably steady allure of beef, even at current prices, is likely a result of several factors currently shaping consumer food buying behaviors, according to a new research brief from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. Key among those factors is the heightened interest in dietary protein, changing health perceptions surrounding beef, and the availability of restaurantquality beef at retail grocery stores.
“Twelve months ago, the question was whether beef demand would hold up at higher prices, but today most analysts are fairly certain that beef value risk is to the upside,” said Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist with CoBank. “Retail per capita beef consumption is headed for 60 pounds this year. U.S. consumers can’t seem to get enough protein these days, and among animal proteins beef remains king.”
According to the most recent inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, core inflation was up 2.9% year-over-year. Beef price increases towered in comparison. The all-fresh retail beef prices surged by 9% for the year, hitting an astonishing $8.90 per pound. Even at those levels, prices have been unable to tame unyielding consumer interest in beef.
NSF INTERNATIONAL FOCUSES ON CANADIAN FOOD INDUSTRY WITH NEW WEBSITE FOR SERVICES IN CANADA
Global public health organization showcases services for Canada’s growing and fast-changing food industry
The USDA mid-year cattle inventory report released on July 25 revealed the biannual cattle inventory was the lowest mid-year count on record at 94.2 million head – a 75-year low. Analysts are mixed on whether the beef herd is still in contraction or beginning to rebuild. But most observers suggest the nation’s cattle supply will remain strained through at least 2026, and likely through 2027. That means retail beef prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. While larger macroeconomic shifts could influence purchasing behavior in the future, so far consumers have shown little appetite for sacrificing beef.
Improvements in beef quality and the increased availability of premium grade cuts at retail have played a big role in driving demand. The U.S. beef industry is producing a much higher quality product today than it did 30 years ago. Recognizing quality issues in the 1980s, cattle producers began selectively improving herd genetics to produce beef with higher fat marbling and better taste for improved customer experience. Those efforts have paid off as 95% of U.S. beef production is now grading Choice or higher.
NSF International in Canada recently launched a new website - www.nsfcanada.ca - to give Canada’s growing and complex food and beverage industry easy access to the global public health organization’s expertise and services in Canada. The website combines information on the depth, experience and capabilities of the NSF International Canadian office with access to NSF International’s global services dedicated to food safety and quality.
Evolving regulations across countries and increasing complexities associated with a globalized food supply network present challenges for NSF International clients in Canada and around the world. The new Canadian website offers expertise and services to help companies navigate these challenges, including certification and auditing, consulting, technical services, training and education, food and label compliance, packaging, and product and process development.
Earnest said access to high-quality beef has never been better and American consumers have developed a taste for it. “The COVID-19 pandemic led us to a place where ‘leveling up’ through access to luxury goods is prioritized over luxury services. And beef, specifically high-quality beef, is a luxury good that can be accessed for at-home consumption at a fraction of the cost at fine dining establishments.”
NSF International’s Canadian website provides information on the following services:
Consumer perceptions surrounding the health aspects of eating beef have also improved in recent years. Fitness-conscious consumers who laud protein content for muscle production often favor beef. The advent of GLP-1 medications for weight loss have also sparked more widespread consumer interest in increasing the amount of protein in their diets.
Certification & auditing: Third-party food safety audits and certifications, which are integral components of supplier selection and regulatory compliance. Accurate audits are the first step toward successful verification of a company’s food safety system, providing improved brand protection and customer confidence. Certifications and audits are available for animal and produce in the agriculture industry, GFSI certification and management system registration.
Read the research brief, U.S. Beef Attracts More Customers than it Can Handle.
ABOUT COBANK
accredited International Association for Continuing Education and Training (IACET) site. Topics include HACCP, food safety and quality, GFSI benchmarked standards, regulations (including FSMA), food science, food packaging, food microbiology and ISO standards. Training modalities include eLearning, on-site, customized and open enrolment.
Additionally, the website includes information about management system registrations for the food, automotive, environmental, information security, medical devices, aerospace and chemical industries, as well as for Ontario drinking water programs.
Visit the new Canadian website at www.nsfcanada.ca to review the food safety services capabilities video, find a list of Canadian food experts, learn about upcoming events and global news releases, submit a question or read an FAQ.
CoBank is a cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America. The bank provides loans, leases, export financing and other financial services to agribusinesses and rural power, water and communications providers in all 50 states. The bank also provides wholesale loans and other financial services to affiliated Farm Credit associations serving more than 78,000 farmers, ranchers and other rural borrowers in 23 states around the country.
technical resources, expertise and insight for a wide range
product, including food and label compliance, packaging,
and beverage industry across the supply chain as an
CANADA REMOVES RETALIATORY TARIFFS ON CUSMA-COMPLIANT U.S. GOODS
By Peter Zimonjic, CBC News
Canada will remove all tariffs on goods from the United States that are covered by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) by September 1, as recently announced in a statement from Prime Minister Mark Carney.
The prime minister said Canada will maintain its tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos as the Liberal government works with the U.S. to craft a new trading relationship between the two countries.
Carney said that despite the ongoing trade war, and U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, copper, lumber and energy, 85 per cent of trade with the U.S. is still tarifffree — which is a better deal than other countries have.
"As we work to address outstanding trade issues with the U.S., it is important we do everything we can to preserve this unique advantage for Canadian workers and their families," Carney said.
"We want to be very good to Canada. I like Carney a lot. I think he's a good person and we had a very good talk yesterday," U.S. President Donald Trump said in the Oval Office Friday.
Carney hinted in August that he may drop some of the counter-tariffs if it would help Canadian industries weather the trade war with the U.S.
Trump signed an executive order on July 31, raising tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35 per cent effective at 12:01 a.m. the next day. Canada might have been able to avoid the hike had it managed to strike a new trade deal with the U.S. by the August 1 deadline, but that didn't happen.
The Trump administration said the change was in response to fentanyl trafficking and Canada's decision earlier this year to hit back with counter-tariffs.
The Canadian government imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods three times since the trade war began, including counter-tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. consumer goods and additional tariffs on U.S. autos, steel and aluminum.
The 35 per cent tariff rate only applies to goods not covered by CUSMA.
FIRST 'NATION-BUILDING PROJECT' TO BE ANNOUNCED SOON.
Carney referenced his conversation with Trump on Thursday, saying he got assurances from the U.S. president that by removing tariffs on U.S. imports compliant with CUSMA, discussions between the two countries will "intensify" to address "trade challenges in strategic sectors" still impacted by tariffs.
Those discussions, Carney said, will happen alongside efforts to prepare for the official review of CUSMA that will happen next year by holding industry consultations starting next month in order to set priorities.
Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for CanadaU.S. trade, suggested to CBC's Power & Politics that walking back the retaliatory tariffs will help ease tensions ahead of the CUSMA review.
"We have to get to that conversation in the most coherent posture possible and the prime minister's decision today very much lines up in that way," LeBlanc told guest-host Karina Roman.
Carney also said his government will focus on strengthening the Canadian economy by expanding trade with other countries, doubling the pace of homebuilding and making investments in national defence.
Earlier this year, Carney's government saw the passage of legislation that would streamline approvals for nation-building projects such as highways, railways, ports, airports, pipelines, critical minerals, mines, nuclear facilities and electrical transmission projects.
"The Canadian government will soon select the first in a series of new nation-building projects that will connect and transform our economy," he said.
UNIFOR AND CANADIAN FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS WEIGH IN.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he spoke with Carney after the announcement, telling him Canada needs an agreement with the U.S. that provides relief to the steel, auto, forestry and copper industries.
"If the federal government can't achieve that, they need to hit back hard against U.S. tariffs and provide additional supports for the workers and businesses in these sectors," Ford said in a statement.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) welcomed Carney's announcement in a statement, calling it a "step in the right direction" that will "take the pressure off Canadian small businesses."
"Many small business owners have told us that Canada's retaliatory measures were almost as damaging as the U.S. tariffs themselves," the CFIB's Corinne Pohlmann said in a statement.
Pohlmann said that while the announcement provides some relief, Canadian companies have already paid millions of dollars in tariffs, and she urged the federal government to provide some of that revenue to small businesses impacted by the trade war.
In a statement posted on X, Lana Payne, the president of Unifor, the largest private sector union in Canada with more than 300,000 members, said Carney's move was a mistake.
"Walking back counter-tariffs isn't an olive branch. It only enables more U.S. aggression," she said.
"From the start, Unifor has demanded Canada's leverage be used to defend workers in this trade war," she added. "We should not give it away unless the U.S. also drops all punitive tariffs."
TARIFFS THREATEN TO RESHAPE NORTH AMERICA’S MEAT PROCESSING INDUSTRY
The meat processing industry in North America is bracing for major challenges as tariffs tighten global trade flows and push up input costs. The combined effect of weaker export competitiveness, higher equipment and packaging costs, and volatile livestock markets could reshape the sector in the years ahead.
North America’s meat processors, especially in the United States and Canada, rely heavily on exports to Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Retaliatory tariffs imposed by key trade partners have raised the price of U.S. and Canadian beef, pork, and poultry abroad, making them less competitive against suppliers in Brazil, Australia, and the European Union.
Even modest tariffs, ranging from 10% to 20%, can significantly disrupt commodity markets. A pork shipment that was once competitive in China may now be priced out, leading to excess supply in domestic markets. According to trade analysts, this shift is already prompting processors to reroute exports to secondary markets such as Mexico, the Philippines, or Vietnam, often at thinner profit margins.
RISING COSTS ON THE HOME FRONT
While exports slow, costs at home are climbing. Tariffs on steel and aluminum have raised the price of cold storage facilities, trucks, and processing equipment. Duties on plastics and paper affect packaging, while tariffs on imported feed ingredients such as soymeal ripple back to livestock producers, ultimately increasing the cost of the animals that processors buy.
For large multinational processors like Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and Maple Leaf Foods, these added costs can be absorbed and spread across diverse markets. For smaller and regional packers, however, the squeeze is harder to manage. Many operate on slim margins and lack the flexibility to raise consumer prices without losing market share.
FARMERS FEEL THE PINCH
Tariffs are also hitting livestock producers, who are deeply tied to processors’ buying decisions. When overseas demand falls, processors often reduce slaughter schedules or lower the price they are willing to pay for cattle, hogs, or poultry. That creates a chain reaction: farmers face reduced revenues, debt pressures rise, and rural economies suffer.
In some areas, farmers are already reporting more animals being held back or sold at discounted rates. “We’re being told there’s too much pork in the pipeline, but at the same time our feed and equipment costs are going up,” one Midwestern hog producer explained. “It feels like a squeeze from both ends.”
IMPACT ON CONSUMERS
For North American consumers, the effect of tariffs is complex. In the short term, a slowdown in exports may leave more beef, pork, and poultry available domestically, potentially pushing grocery store prices lower. But over the longer term, the rising costs of packaging, transportation, and processing are expected to filter through the supply chain, driving retail prices upward.
Value-added products such as sausages, deli meats, and frozen meals could feel inflationary pressure first, since they require more processing and packaging. Fresh cuts may remain more stable but are not immune to longterm cost increases.
INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION ON THE HORIZON
As conditions tighten, analysts predict that tariffs will accelerate consolidation in the meat industry. Larger processors with international networks and stronger capital positions are better positioned to ride out volatility. Smaller processors may struggle to compete, especially if they are heavily dependent on one or two export markets.
A PIVOTAL MOMENT
The North American meat processing industry finds itself at a pivotal moment as tariffs are reshaping everything from farm economics to supermarket prices. While global giants may ultimately adjust, smaller processors, livestock producers, and rural communities face mounting pressure.
As policymakers debate the merits of protectionism versus free trade, the industry’s experience underscores a broader reality: tariffs intended to safeguard domestic markets often carry unintended consequences for those who depend on global supply chains. In meat processing, those consequences prove both immediate and far-reaching.
MILITARY STUDY FINDS PORK PROTEIN AIDS RECOVERY
The type of protein you eat after intense physical training can significantly impact recovery, according to new research from Texas A&M University’s Department of Kinesiology and Sport Management.
The study, led by Richard Kreider, a researcher with over 30 years of experience studying creatine and sports nutrition, examined how different protein sources in military-style meals ready-to-eat affected recovery in members of Texas A&M’s Corps of Cadets after completing the Army Combat Fitness Test.
Creatine — a compound stored in muscle and essential for cellular energy production and recovery — is most abundant in animal-based protein like meat and fish. While the recommended daily intake ranges from 2 to 4 grams, depending on muscle mass and activity level, most individuals fall short, especially those following vegetarian or vegan diets. Combined with a lack of essential amino acids, this can make recovery after intense training difficult for vegetarians and vegans.
The 2023 MRE meal plan includes nine plant-based options and 14 animal-based menus, with only one featuring pork as the primary protein. Because pork is particularly rich in both creatine and essential amino acids, researchers compared recovery outcomes between pork-based and plant-based MREs to determine whether protein source influences recovery.
“Our concern was that if we’re expecting our military to perform at their best and they’re consuming plantbased MREs, we have to make sure those meals provide enough essential amino acids and creatine to meet daily needs,” Kreider said.
Researchers from the Exercise and Sport Nutrition Laboratory tracked members of the Corps of Cadets — the largest uniformed student body in the nation outside of the military academies — who consumed pork-based or plant-based protein after completing the Army Combat Fitness Test, a rigorous battery of sprints, drag pulls, weightlifting and other exercises designed to assess combat readiness. In a tightly controlled fourday protocol, participants were fed a pre-exercise meal before completing the fitness test. They then consumed standardized MREs — either pork-based or plant-based — three times daily for the next three days.
Researchers monitored blood and urine biomarkers, muscle soreness and cognitive performance throughout the recovery period. On the third day, cadets repeated the fitness test to assess recovery outcomes.
Despite consuming the same amount of protein, the cadets who ate pork-based MREs showed less muscle soreness, reduced nitrogen excretion (a marker of muscle breakdown) and lower levels of inflammation than those who were fed the plant-based protein. Hormonal responses also improved, with better testosterone-to-cortisol ratios observed in the pork group.
Kreider said the findings suggest that individuals who follow a plant-based diet may not recover as well from intense military-style activities as those who consume animal-based protein.
Each MRE is standardized to contain 45 grams of protein, he said, but the difference is that plant-based proteins contain 30% to 40% fewer essential amino acids than animal protein and only trace amounts of creatine.
The study, published in the journal Nutrients, recommends that plant-based MREs be fortified with 6 to 10 grams of essential amino acids and 2 to 3 grams of creatine monohydrate to help maintain optimal recovery and performance for military personnel following a vegetarian diet.
“The long-term health implication is that people who have low creatine and low-quality protein in their diet may not be able to recover and may not be able to perform when military tasks are needed,” Kreider said. “It applies to sports, and it even applies to aging. We used to think simply having enough protein is all you need, but the type of protein does matter.”
Article courtesy of Texas A&M University
FORK IN THE ROAD: RETHINKING CANADA’S AGRICULTURAL TRADE FUTURE
For decades, Canadian farmers, ranchers, and food processors have relied on the United States (U.S.) as one of their primary trading partners. But rising costs, unpredictable tariffs, and geopolitical tensions are pushing many small agri-businesses to rethink their dependence and explore new markets. The future of Canada’s agri-food system may hinge less on deepening ties with our southern neighbour, and more on diversifying beyond it.
The interconnectedness of agricultural supply chains between Canada and the U.S. cannot be understated. Data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) shows that, as of August 2025, four in five SMEs in the agriculture sector import directly and/ or indirectly from American suppliers, while nearly two-thirds (62%) sell products directly and/or indirectly to the U.S. Despite the protections under the CanadaUnited States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), the current trade war is taking a toll, as agricultural SMEs report higher expenses, reduced profits and revenues, and supply chain disruptions. These are cutting into already thin margins, leaving small agri-businesses in a difficult place.
Such impacts have led to growing momentum towards diversification away from the U.S. The agriculture sector has been slower to pivot, with only 17% of small agribusinesses saying they have already pivoted away from the U.S. in some capacity, compared to 32% across sectors. However, new CFIB data reveals that nearly one-third of small agri-businesses are in the process of fully (10%) or partially (21%) shifting away from U.S. suppliers and customers, with agriculture twice as likely than other sectors to be planning a full (10%) pivot.
Source: CFIB, Canada-U.S. Trade War and Your Business Survey, August 2025. Preliminary results. Question: Is your business pivoting to find non-U.S.-based suppliers or customers as alternatives? (Select the one answer that best describes your business situation now)
Where are they going instead? Half are looking closer to home, seeking out Canadian alternatives, even at higher costs (Figure 2). An Ontario business owner noted, “Some products will be sourced within Canada, but the prices will be significantly higher, so we will purchase less than normal as we know it will be out of some customers’ price range.” Others are branching out globally, with 29% turning to European alternatives and 15% toward Mexico. Nearly one in four (24%) agribusinesses are shifting to other countries with which Canada has free trade agreements, almost double the national average.
Figure 1: Nearly half of Canadian agricultural SMEs have or will be pivoting to find non-U.S.-based suppliers or customers
Figure 2: Half of small Canadian agri-businesses are pivoting from U.S. suppliers and customers to Canadian alternatives
As one Quebec agri-business owner put it, “This situation has opened our eyes to our dependance on an economy that does not respect us. The diversity of our supply chain has now become a priority.” This preference reflects a deliberate strategy by small agribusinesses to establish more predictable, rules-based trade partners and suggests a loss of confidence in what was once Canada’s most dependable trading partner. Shifts in buying patterns clearly support this trend. According to CFIB data, 43% of small agri-businesses have seen an increase in sales of Canadian or locally made products since the start of the trade war, while 45% have seen a decrease in sales of U.S.-made products. One Ontario-based CFIB member shares: “We have pivoted as much as we can for more certainty. We don’t feel U.S. vendors deserve our orders and our customers don’t want to buy American.”
But diversification is not feasible for all SMEs. As previously highlighted, 17% of small agri-businesses are not even considering a pivot away from the U.S. Some small businesses lack the capital to connect to overseas markets, while others cannot find necessary inputs in Canada. Many SMEs also have long-standing relationships with U.S. suppliers and customers, built on years of trust, integrated logistics, and sheer geographic proximity, which are not easily or efficiently replaced.
This leaves Canadian policymakers with an important task. With 92% of SMEs across sectors saying Canada must strengthen its trade ties beyond the U.S. and China, the need for diversification is clear. If SMEs want to diversify, the federal government must support them. In the meantime, strategies must respond to the immediate needs of small businesses. CFIB has been urging the federal government to return the money collected through retaliatory tariffs back to the small firms bearing the brunt of the trade war, a measure supported by 81% of small agri-businesses.
Canadian agriculture has resilience in its roots, but even the strongest roots need the right support to keep growing in uncertain soil.
Béatrice Moen is a Bilingual Public Policy and Advocacy Intern for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). CFIB is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members (5,200 agri-business members) across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners’ chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.
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