Zeroing in on ZETs: May 2024 Market Update

ZEROING IN ON ZERO-EMISSION TRUCKS Market Update | May 2024

By Baha M. Al-Alawi and Jacob Richard

ABOUT

The fifth publication in CALSTART’s Zeroing in on Zero-Emission Trucks series, this update provides a concise and current snapshot of the dynamic U.S. medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) truck market as of December 2023. It presents deployment statistics for zeroemission trucks (ZETs) and characterizes the existing U.S. MHD truck market for Class 2b (8,501–10,000 lbs.) through Class 8 (33,000 lbs. and above) vehicles.1 These vehicles are categorized into six distinct segments: cargo vans, medium-duty (MD) step vans, MD trucks, refuse trucks, yard tractors,2 and all other heavy-duty (HD) trucks.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The cumulative number of U.S. ZET deployments has grown to more than 30,000 vehicles as of December 2023. There were approximately 25,378 new ZET deployments in 2023 alone.

Since the last iteration of Zeroing in on Zero-Emission Trucks, which displayed ZET deployments through June 2023, 12,296 new ZET deployments have been reported.

The U.S. ZET market experienced 546% year-over-year growth in 2023.

1See Appendix A for information on the data sources used to develop this market update.

2While yard tractors may not be registered as on-road vehicles, they provide a critical function related to moving freight in the United States.

KEY TAKEAWAYS, CONTINUED

Of the cumulative U.S. ZET deployments (for which deployment locations are known), 37% were in states that—as of December 2023—have adopted the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule, despite those same states representing only 27% of all truck stock.3 Moreover, 11% of ZET deployments were in states that have signed the Multi-State Medium- and Heavy-Duty Zero Emission Vehicle Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and 53% were in non-MOU states.4

Cargo vans are the leading vehicle segment for ZET deployments, with 25,931 deployed or roughly 86% of all ZET deployments. This reflects cargo vans’ limited market barriers to mass adoption.

Fuel cell electric trucks have seen an increase in deployments, with 44 vehicles now deployed across the United States.

Overall U.S. MHD Truck Market

Total truck stock as of year-end 2023 was led by HD trucks with 5,119,885 vehicles, followed by cargo vans (3.8 million) and MD trucks (3.6 million).

In 2023, total U.S. MHD truck deployments increased to 588,512 from 553,678 in 2022. Of this total, cargo vans had the highest number of deployments with 235,926. Pennsylvania leads the nation in U.S. MHD truck deployments, with 43,751 deployed in 2023.

3States that have adopted the ACT rule as of December 2023 include California, Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. All states that have adopted the ACT rule have also signed the MOU (except for New Mexico). See Appendix B for a full list of state policy adoption.

4Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

U.S. ZET DEPLOYMENTS BY STATE

ZETs deployed since January 2017 reached a total of more than 30,000 vehicles as of yearend 2023. Deployment locations (by state) are known for 29,742 of these ZETs. Figure 1 presents the number of deployed ZETs by state and identifies major state-level ZET sales regulations and commitments.5 Categories include states with the highest level of ZET policy ambition that, as of December 2023, have adopted both the ACT and Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) rules (green), states have adopted only ACT (blue), states that have adopted neither rule but have signed the MOU indicating intent to adopt ACT (purple), and non-MOU states (gray).

5Figure 1 represents only the 29,742 ZETs for which deployment locations are known. Some deployment numbers may differ slightly from the previous market update due to corrections in the data provided by OEMs. State totals do not equal total deployments because deployment locations are not known for all ZETs.

Figure 1: State ZET Deployments and Policy Status (2017–2023)

The leading states for overall ZET deployments are California (4,435), Texas (3,468), and Florida (2,289), with New York, New Jersey, and Illinois all having more than 1,000 ZET deployments.

While California, Texas, and Florida have the most overall ZET deployments, the leading states for each vehicle segment vary:

ZE cargo vans from seven OEMs have primarily been deployed in Texas (3,360), California (2,588), and Florida (2,259).

ZE MD step vans from six OEMs have primarily been deployed in California (348), New Hampshire (119), and North Carolina (64).

ZE MD trucks from 13 OEMs have primarily been deployed in California (269), Iowa (41), and New Jersey (30).

ZE HD trucks from 12 OEMs have primarily been deployed in California (465), Wisconsin (160), and Indiana (82).

ZE refuse trucks from four OEMs have primarily been deployed in Pennsylvania (9), California (8), New Jersey (5), and New York (5).

ZE yard tractors from four OEMs have primarily been deployed in California (757), New York (53), and Texas (47).

The variety of states that lead in ZET deployments for different vehicle segments is a testament to the fact that deploying ZETs can be done regardless of regulations and incentives. Companies have seen the return on investment with these types of vehicles and understand that adopting ZETs makes good business sense and helps them achieve their environmental goals.

U.S. ZET DEPLOYMENTS BY SEGMENT

ZE cargo vans continue to be the driving force behind the steep increase in U.S. ZET deployments over the past year. Approximately 25,931 ZE cargo vans have been deployed (Figure 2), an increase of 11,531 from the previous Zeroing in on ZETs report. Following cargo vans are yard tractors (1,276), HD trucks (1,162), MD step vans (1,070), MD trucks (534), and refuse trucks (57).

Figure 2: Cumulative U.S. ZET Deployments by Segment (2017–2023)

From 2022 to 2023, ZET deployments grew by 546%. Over the same period, ZE cargo vans have experienced the biggest growth at 911%, followed by HD trucks (369%), refuse trucks (171%), MD step vans (83%), MD trucks (66%), and yard tractors (40%).

ZE cargo vans dominate the ZET market share (i.e., share of deployments as a proportion of total ZET deployments) at 86%. MD step vans, HD trucks, and yard tractors—the next three highest segments—all have just 4% market share. They are trailed by MD trucks at 2% and refuse trucks at only 0.19%.

TOTAL ZET DEPLOYMENTS

As of December 2023, more than 30,000 ZETs have been deployed in the United States from 32 OEMs. Figure 3 outlines the distribution of ZET deployments by vehicle model year along with the cumulative year-over-year total.

As mentioned previously, this steep rise in deployments is due in large part to ZE cargo vans. With limited market barriers to ZE adoption, such as smaller batteries, high production volumes from multiple OEMs, ideal duty-cycle capability, and much lower upfront costs compared to other vehicle segments, this segment is expected to continue growing at its rapid pace.

The rise can also be attributed to ZE HD trucks, which saw the second largest increase in deployments in 2023. HD trucks are the most common vehicle segment on the road, with a vehicle stock of more than 5 million, and are frequently domiciled in disadvantaged communities, particularly around ports. This has led to a greater push to decarbonize these vehicles, including increased available incentives, that has helped drive ZE adoption more quickly than other segments.

Figure 3: U.S. ZET Deployments by Vehicle Model Year (2017–2023)

ZET INCREASES FROM 2022

At the year-end of 2022, CALSTART reported approximately 4,652 ZETs as deployed in the United States; in one year, that number increased more than fivefold. The states that have seen the greatest numerical increases in ZET deployments over the past year are in line with the overall ZET deployments; all but one state saw an increase in ZET deployments from 2022 to 2023. Figure 4 presents the top 10 states with the largest numerical increase in ZET deployments since 2022, while Figure 5 illustrates this data as a percentage increase of ZET deployments since 2022.

Figure 4: Top 10 States with Largest Numerical Increases in ZET Deployments (2022 to 2023)

Figure 5: Top 10 States with Largest Percentage Increases in ZET Deployments (2022 to 2023)

Texas saw the greatest numerical increase in ZET deployments with 3,337 vehicles, followed by California (2,963) and Florida (2,152).

Arkansas saw the greatest percentage increase of ZET deployments. Through the end of 2022, the state had only six ZETs; now, as of December 2023, it has 345 ZETs. Arkansas is followed by Nebraska (4,833%) and North Carolina (4,413%).

Only one state (Texas) was in the top 10 for both numerical increase and percentage increase of ZET deployments over the past year.

OVERALL TRUCK MARKET

The United States has the largest number of registered trucks globally with 12.95 million vehicles reported in 2023. Figure 6 presents the total number of registered MHD trucks (i.e., stock) and annual deployments for 2023 by state in thousands and highlights states with major ZET policies in the same manner as Figure 1. Juxtaposing overall U.S. MHD truck market statistics with ZET sales regulations can help inform market and policy opportunities for ZETs at the state level. Figure 7 illustrates total MHD truck stock and 2023 deployments by segment.

Figure 6: U.S. MHD Truck Stock and 2023 Deployments by State (Thousands)

Figure

Segment (Thousands)

Most of the U.S. MHD truck stock—as of 2023—consists of HD (Class 7–8) trucks at 40%, followed by Class 2b–3 cargo vans (29%) and Class 3–6 MD trucks (28%).

Six states represent 37% of U.S. MHD truck stock: California (11%), Texas (7.4%), Florida (5.4%), Pennsylvania (4.9%), Indiana (4.2%), and Illinois (4.2%). All other states each contain 4% or less of registered vehicles.

States that have adopted the ACT rule—as of December 2023—represent 27% of national MHD truck stock and 20% of national 2023 MHD truck deployments.

States that have signed the MOU (including ACT states) represent 40% of national MHD truck stock and 34% of national 2023 MHD truck deployments.

Seven states represent 43% of 2023 U.S. MHD truck deployments: Pennsylvania (7.4%), Texas (6.9%), Indiana (6.5%), California (6.4%), Florida (6.3%), Arizona (5.1%), and Illinois (4.5%). All other states each contain 4% or less of deployments.

Over a quarter (28%) of the U.S. MHD truck stock is owned by individuals. Of these individually owned trucks, 45% are cargo vans, 28% are HD trucks, and 26% are MD trucks.

Eight vocations represent 78% of MHD truck stock: individual (28%), general freight (13%), service (10%), construction (9%), lease/rental (7%), wholesale/retail (5%), government/miscellaneous (3%), and manufacturing (3%).

Internal combustion engine vehicles, which are primarily fueled by gasoline or diesel, represent 98% of MHD truck stock in the United States. Diesel accounts for 61.6%, gasoline for 29%, flexible fuel for 7.6%, and all other fuel types (i.e., natural gas, propane, hybrid, and electric) represent less than 1.5% of registered trucks.

CONCLUSION: RAPID ZET MARKET GROWTH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

The U.S. ZET market experienced 546% year-over-year growth in 2023—a significant bump from its 283% growth in 2022. ZET deployments are no longer dominated by California, with a wide disbursement occurring throughout the country. Cargo vans and HD trucks have seen the greatest increase in ZET deployments, and those trends are expected to continue. Cargo vans specifically should continue to see a rapid growth rate, as the vehicle segment has limited market barriers to adoption.

Four additional states have adopted the ACT rule over the past year, and five new state-level MHD incentive programs are slated to start in 2024 along with many more legacy incentive programs (Appendix C). In March, the Environmental Protection Agency finalized its Phase 3 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas (GHG) rule, which sets the nation’s strictest ever set of GHG emissions standards for HD vehicles. The standards are technology neutral and do not require OEMs to produce any amount of ZETs. However, it is likely that OEMs will comply with the standards at least in part by boosting ZET production, especially for MHD vehicles in Classes 2b–7.

The U.S. ZET market is positioned for continued expansion driven by favorable regulations, increased adoption across vehicle types, and a broader geographic distribution—signaling a promising future for ZE freight transportation in the United States.

REFERENCES

CALSTART, “EPA Phase 3 Rule Overview”: https://calstart.org/epa-phase-3-rule-overview/

NESCAUM, “Medium- and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicles: Action Plan Development Process”: https://www.nescaum.org/initiatives/mhd-zev-initiative

RMI, “Understanding California’s Advanced Clean Truck Regulation”: https://rmi.org/understanding-californias-advanced-clean-truck-regulation/

APPENDIX A: DATA SOURCES

Sources in Table A-1 are in order from most to least prevalent within the data used to determine ZET deployments.

Table A-1: Data Sources

Private Correspondence

IHS Markit

California CORE

California HVIP

Public Press Releases

NYTVIP

Author correspondence with OEMs

Global provider of information and analysis on world markets and industries

California’s Clean Off-Road Equipment Voucher Incentive Program

California’s Clean Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project

Press releases from OEMs announcing delivered sales

Truck voucher incentive program administered by the State of New York

ZET deployments as of December 2023

U.S. truck registrations as of December 2023

ZE yard tractor deployments as of December 2023

ZET deployments as of December 2023

ZET deployments as of December 2023

ZET deployments as of December 2021

APPENDIX B: STATE POLICY ADOPTION

Any states not listed in Table B-1 had not adopted any of the policies tracked for this market update as of December 2023.

Table B-1: State Policy Adoption (As of December 2023)

California

District

Hawaii

New

Nevada New

Pennsylvania

Rhode

Virginia

Vermont Washington

APPENDIX C: STATE INCENTIVE PROGRAMS

Table C-1: State Incentive Programs

California

California’s Clean Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP)

Clean Off-Road Equipment (CORE) Voucher Incentive Project

California

California California

California Colorado Colorado

Energy Infrastructure Incentives for Zero-Emission (EnergIIZE) Commercial

Implementation of MHD

Vehicle Infrastructure

Clean Fleet Vehicle Technology Grant Program

Fleet Zero

EV Charging Equipment Rebates

Commercial Clean Vehicle

Clean Ports Program

Clean HD Vehicles

Diesel Replacement Rebate

Maryland

Massachusetts

Massachusetts

Nevada

New Jersey

New York

New York

Medium-Duty and HeavyDuty Zero-Emission Vehicle Grant Program

Massachusetts Offers Rebates for Electric Vehicles (MOR-EV) Trucks Program

MassEVIP

Nevada Clean Trucks and Buses Program

New Jersey Zero-Emission Incentive Program (NJ ZIP)

Clean Fleet Electric Vehicle Incentive Program

New York Truck Voucher Incentive Program (NYTVIP)

New York City Clean Trucks Program (NYCCTP)

Medium-and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicle Fleet Pilot Grant

Alternative Fuels Incentive Grants

All-Electric Grant Program

Clean Alternative Fuel Commercial Vehicles and Vehicle Infrastructure EV Charging

Infrastructure Program

Infrastructure and Incentive Program for Medium and Heavy Duty Zero-Emission Vehicles

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Baha Al-Alawi, Ph.D., is a Market and Industry Analysis Lead at CALSTART. In this role, he supports zero-emission vehicle voucher demand forecasts, market assessments, infrastructure planning and demand, technology road mapping, and utility planning.

Jacob Richard is a Technical Project Manager at CALSTART. In this role, he leads data analysis, tool building, and research efforts to support CALSTART’s truck initiatives throughout the United States.

Questions? Reach out to bal-alawi@calstart.org or jrichard@calstart.org

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors would like to thank key CALSTART staff, including Tor Larson, Shuhan Song, Jonah Kasdan, and Emily Varnell, for their critical review of and additions to this market update. Any errors are the authors’ own.

Unless otherwise noted, all figures are copyright CALSTART based on data from author correspondence with manufacturers, IHS Markit, California’s Clean Off-Road Equipment Voucher Incentive Program, California’s Clean Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project, public press releases, and the New York Truck Voucher Incentive Program.

No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means— electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without prior written permission by CALSTART. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to CALSTART, 48 S. Chester Ave, Pasadena, CA 91106 or Publications@CALSTART.org

CALSTART www.CALSTART.org @CALSTART

© Copyright 2024 CALSTART

ABOUT CALSTART

A mission-driven, industry organization focused on transportation decarbonization and clean air for all, CALSTART has offices in California, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, New York, and Europe. CALSTART is uniquely positioned to build the national clean transportation industry by working closely with its member companies and building on the lessons learned from the major programs it manages for the State of California. CALSTART has more than 280 member companies and manages more than $500 million in vehicle incentive and technical assistance programs in the United States.