Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012 Published : June 2012
No. of Pages : 65
Price: US$1175
We forecast that Soudan and South Sudan’s combined oil output will fall dramatically in 2012 to just 160,000b/d, down from an estimated 420,000b/d in 2011. If a settlement is reached quickly and new international investment follows, then output is likely rise, thereby rapidly increasing the upside risks to our rather conservative forecasts. However, ongoing disagreements over revenue sharing and border delineation threaten to derail the uneasy peace between the two countries. Main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan And South Sudan’s Oil and Gas sector are: At the time of writing, South Sudanese oil production remains completely shut-in. We expect this to continue until fiscal pressure forces South Sudan back to the negotiating table. Our core view implies a resumption of output in Q412 on the back of at least a temporary transit fee resolution. Khartoum is likely to try to boost production over the coming years as it seeks to replace volumes lost to the South during secession. We expect that Khartoum will struggle to meet its production goals, despite reported interest in the latest licensing round. South Sudan is endeavoring to pursue a number of alternative pipeline plans in order to bypass Sudanese infrastructure. We do not anticipate that these will be completed promptly enough to avoid renegotiation with Khartoum. Oil reserves are set to fall gradually, in line with higher production volumes, unless significant new investment is made in exploration over the coming years. That is threatened by the deteriorating security situation on the ground in the border regions. Oil consumption is forecast to grow over our forecast period, despite the deadlock, from an estimated 100,00b/d in 2011 to 119,000b/d in 2016 and 145,000b/d by 2021. We forecast an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47/bbl, which we see falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an estimated 3.0% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is forecast at 3.3%. Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Industry Q2 2012 BMI Industry View 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Sudan And South Sudan Oil and Gas SWOT .. 6 Global Energy Market Outlook ... 7 Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9) ... 8 Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d) . 10 Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 11 Regional Energy Market Outlook . 12 Sudan and South Sudan Energy Market Overview 16 Upstream Projects Database ... 18 Industry Forecast Scenario .. 19 Oil And Gas Reserves ... 19 Table: Industry Summary Data 22 Table: Industry Summary Data 24 Oil And Gas Infrastructure 26 Oil Refineries 26 Table: Refineries In Sudan ... 26 Service Stations 28 Oil Storage Facilities ... 28 Oil Terminals/Ports . 28 Oil Pipelines 28 Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 30 Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings . 33