bne:Newspaper - March 20, 2015 by Ben Aris

Content: 2 Top Stories 5 The Regions This Week 10 Eastern Europe 14 Eurasia 17 Central Europe 20 Southeast Europe 23 Opinion 25 Lists 24 Lists

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March 20, 2015

Ukraine's debt restructuring gets messy Ben Aris in Moscow The Ukrainian finance ministry's plan to reduce external sovereign debt by $15.3bn by giving international bond holders a haircut is getting messy.

being exempted from a plan to reduce the amount the state and its companies owe, and therefore the burden is unfairly falling on a restricted group of private investors.

Institute of International Finance (IIF) executive director Hung Tran, which is not formally representing the private investors but has been in consultation with them, said too many entities are

Ukraine owes a total of some $40bn to external creditors but only private investors, which own See page 2

Putin returns but does not clear up mystery of his absence bne IntelliNews Russian President Vladimir Putin has reappeared in public after an 11-day absence that had sent the media into a frenzy of speculation. Putin said on March 16 that the various reports and theories on the reason for his absence – ranging from birth of his alleged fifth child, through palace coup and on to death – were just "rumours".

“It’d be boring if there weren’t rumours,” Putin said wryly, without explaining where he had been. Putin flew from Moscow to St Petersburg on the morning of March 16 and appeared in front of the cameras before meeting Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev. See page 4

Top Stories March 20, 2015

Putin returns but does not clear up mystery of his absence Putin appeared in rude health and jolly spirits, nixing the theories that he had undergone more plastic surgery – he is believed to have received Botox injections – or had thrown his back out again. He hurt his back during a minor crash in a microlight last year. Atambayev said that Putin was not just on his feet, but also “hot-rodding behind the wheel”. “[Russian President] Vladimir Vladimirovich just drove me around the territory. That’s just so there’s no rumours,” Atambayev was quoted as saying by the Russian state-owned Sputnik newswire. While he was absent, Putin appeared in a documentary on the annexation of the Crimea, where he confirmed what was widely assumed but always denied by the Kremlin and its supporters: that Russia sent in unmarked soldiers, the so-called "little green men" of world media reports, and de facto took the peninsula by force.

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documentary was his admission that the soldiers wearing unmarked uniforms that appeared across Crimea in the run-up to a rushed referendum on secession were indeed Russian regular forces. A long-standing treaty with Ukraine allowed Russia to station just over 20,000 troops in Russian military bases on the peninsular. But ahead of the vote these soldiers moved out into the streets and towns, creating an atmosphere in which international observers said a free and fair vote on secession could not be held. Putin also said that he had been prepared to go to the brink over Crimea – including putting Russia's nuclear weapons on stand-by – and faced down a welter of calls from Western leaders during the annexation. He responded by saying Crimea was "our historical territory", that Russians living there "were in danger and we cannot abandon them", but because he was so direct added that, "no country was in the mood to start a war" with Russia over Crimea. The documentary was aimed at the domestic audience and was replete with what has become the standard rhetorical position for the Kremlin: he blamed the US for masterminding the Maidan protests in Ukraine and the subsequent "coup" that ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, calling Washington the "puppeteers".

"Formally, the opposition was primarily supported by Europeans, but we knew very well… that the In the three-hour documentary, "Crimea: Path real puppeteers were our American partners To The Homeland", broadcast on Russia's First and friends. It was they who helped prepare Channel on March 15, Putin explained that troops, nationalists [and] combat troops," Putin said, inlcuding special forces, were sent in to protect adding that he ordered the Russian security Russian military personal stationed in the services to prepare to take over Crimea the day disputed peninsular, which was transferred to after Yanukovych fled the country. Russia's goal Ukraine's territory in 1954. was to secure control over its main warm water naval port in Sevastopol. “We monitored the situation and had to bring in our equipment,” Putin said. “[Russian troops Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk already stationed in Crimea] would have been called on the International Tribunal in The Hague wiped out after the first salvo.” to take the documentary as evidence of Russia's premeditated invasion of Crimea, which is illegal Top of the revelations in the pre-recorded under international law.

The Regions This Week March 20, 2015

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Central Europe A French man was detained as he tried to smuggle his Russian wife into Poland in a suitcase. The pensioner wrongly assumed his bride would not be allowed into the EU as the couple crossed the border from Belarus headed for Nice on a train. Hungary's tax office failed to collect €13bn in debts in 2009-2013, the State Audit Office (ASZ) said in a report. The results are in contrast with an internal investigation in early March led by NAV head Ildiko Vida. The official hit the headlines late last year as she admitted being amongst the six Hungarian officials banned from entering the US over suspicion of corruption. The tax office has in the past been accused of favouritism towards well-connected companies. Though it looked close to throwing in the towel on its dreams of becoming a European game changer on the back of shale gas, Poland could be set for a tight gas bonanza, the country's Geological Institute claimed this week. A report estimates tight gas recoverable reserves at 200bn cubic meters. Support for Hungary's far-right Jobbik is at a record-high while ruling Fidesz loses ground, a poll suggests. The Ipsos survey found backing for Jobbik has risen to 18%, 2pp higher than a month earlier. Fidesz continues to be the country's most popular party, but has seen support slip to 21%. Last year it won the general election with 35%. The Socialist Party manages no more than 11%.

Vodafone is seeking €14mn in damages from O2 Czech Republic in a lawsuit. The UK mobile operator claims O2 CR of abusing its dominance of the country's infrastructure in the Czech fixed broadband market to prevent Vodafone competing for customers. Slovakia remains the world's largest car producer per capita, turning out 183 cars per 1,000 people in 2014. That heavy reliance on the auto sector is likely to deepen as the likes of VW and PSA expand investment. Hungary pulled the state acquisition of Budapest Bank from public oversight by declaring the deal “strategic for the economy". The status means the competition office and other regulators cannot assess the buy. Budapest did similar with last year's acquisition of MKB Bank, as well as the nationalisation and swift re-privatisation of Takarekbank. Enel will accept bids for its 66% stake in Slovenske Elektrarne until May 9, it said this week. The Italian utility noted in results that writedowns on assets in Italy and Slovakia had done most to drop 2014 net profit by around 85% y/y. Czech power groups CEZ and EPH are joined by Hungary's MVM and Mol in having declared interest in SE. The Slovak state also says it wants to increase its 34% holding to a majority.

The Regions This Week March 20, 2015

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Southeast Europe Concerns ranging from corruption and unemployment to a lack of media freedom were raised in a European Parliament session on the Western Balkans. Western Balkan countries hoping to join the EU in the medium term, “still have a number of obstacles to overcome, such as the economic crisis, corruption and the need to guarantee media freedom”, read a European Parliament statement published after the plenary session on the progress of six states in the region's progress towards EU integration.

conditions for entry into force of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement it has signed in 2008. Bulgaria’s parliament adopted amendments to the law on bank insolvency, which allow the appointment of a temporary receiver in the collapsed Corporate Commercial Bank (Corpbank), bTV reported. A temporary receiver is now expected to enter Corpbank by the end of next week, replacing the central bank's administrators. US Mohawk Industries, a leading global flooring manufacturer, has agreed to buy Bulgarian tile producer KAI Group for €195mn, Capital weekly reported. The seller is global private equity firm Advent International. The deal is expected to be completed in Q2.

The Romanian anti-corruption office DNA submitted a formal request to place the former finance minister Darius Valcov in custody. Valcov is alleged to have received €2mn in bribes for awarding public contracts on a preferential basis while serving as mayor of Slatina municipality. PM Ponta has accepted Valcov’s resignation. The mayor of the Croatian capital Zagreb, Milan Bandic, detained on March 10 after attempting to Nine people suspected of recruiting more than influence a witness in a corruption and abuse of 70 men to fight in Syria are on trial in Albania. office case, will remain in custody. The Zagreb Governments across the Balkans, in particular County Court has rejected Bandic’s appeal, while in the majority Muslim countries of Albania and the decision that his HRK15mn (€2mn) bail should Kosovo, have been trying to prevent recruitment be seized and paid into the state budget has of their citizens to join jihadi groups in Syria and become final, Poslovni daily quoted the court’s Iraq. Another trial of suspected recruiters is spokesman Kresimir Devcic as saying. currently underway in Serbia. Croatia could hold a referendum on the planned The Albanian economy is expected to grow by 3% hydrocarbons exploitation in the Adriatic Sea, the in 2015, despite recent flooding and the slowdown country’s Prime Minister, Zoran Milanovic, said. in the oil sector, the IMF said at the conclusion of Ecology groups and activists of the Human Shield civil a mission to Albania. society have asked for a referendum on hydrocarbons exploitation, warning that such activities could harm The Council of the European Union said that it the environment and Croatia’s tourism industry. welcomes the statement declaring the country’s pro-EU commitment adopted by Bosnia’s Kosovo’s lack of energy security is the main presidency, political parties and parliament, obstacle to the country’s socio-economic noting that the country has met all necessary development, according to the World Bank.

The Regions This Week March 20, 2015

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Eastern Europe Investigators have brought charges against all five men accused of killing opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. Khamzat Bakhayevwas who was detained in connection with the murder, has now been formally charged. Police are still holding two more men without charging them. All the suspects are from the Caucasus. Russia's government is making cuts all round. Putin has lopped 10% of top Kremlin salaries and, following up, the Moscow government promised to slash the number of civil servants by 30% by July 1st. Russia held more very large-scale military exercises this week. The entire northern fleet was put on alert, ballistic missiles were deployed to Russia's western border, strategic bombers were sent to Crimea and massive 500-strong tank exercises were held in the western military district. Ukraine's Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said the IMF $5bn is not enough to restore economic growth but was enough to stabilise the banking sector. Ukraine faces a $5bn shortfall in the IMF plan to store the economy, which it hopes to gain from restructuring privately-held debt by June.

Yanukovych's Mezhyhiria residence after he fled the country. The gold bread was only one of a number of valuable gifts at the ex-president's house. Finnish media conglomerate Sanoma will sell the Moscow Times and its sister publication Vedomosti to former CEO of Kommersant publishing house, Demyan Kudryavtsev, news agency RBC reported citing an unidentified source. The Australian media mogul has also been linked to Kudryavtsev. Several of the less successful magazines are also reportedly in the package. Russia celebrated the first anniversary of the "return" of Crimea to the Russian Federation this week. A poll found that two-thirds of Russians say the country benefits from "reunification" with Crimea. Russia may postpone building a huge gas pipeline to China that is part of a $400bn gas supply deal signed last year. Delays in starting on construction on the pipeline have left the deal in limbo.

The share of FX in Russian deposit accounts has risen from 19.4% to 35.7% in the last year as of February 1, the CBR reports. That is higher than in the 2009 crisis when the share of FX reached 35.3%, but less than the record 40% set in 1999. The growth in FX deposits came mainly from the corporate accounts, which doubled to 41.3%, because of sanctions fears.

Some 70,000 Russian have been fined for failing to declare a foreign passport or residency permit in another country. The law was introduced last year by Putin and affected citizens were supposed to confess by October. Failure can result in a fine of up to 200,000 rubles ($3,200), or up to 400 hours of community service. 900,000 Russians did own up to having a second passport issued by another country.

Russia held on to its number two biggest arms exporter title with $13bn of arms sales in 2014. China, Russia's newest best friend, overtook France to take number three spot in global weapons trade. The US is still far in the lead.

Some 127,000 Russians lost their jobs so far this year as unemployment begins to rise slowly. The total number of unemployed could rise to a maximum of 2.4mn over the course of the current crisis, the government says.

Someone has stolen a solid gold loaf of bread found at ousted Ukrainian President Viktor

The Regions This Week March 20, 2015

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Eurasia Kyrgyzstan’s trade deficit decreased by 47.7% y/y to $135.1mn in February. Exports increased by 15.6% to $145.6mn in the given period, whereas imports decreased by 26.9% to 280.7mn as a weakening som has hit demand for imported goods – the som depreciated by 4.7% against the dollar year-to-date. Kyrgyzstan’s debt owed to China’s state ExportImport (Exim) Bank amounted to $1,115mn at the end of 2014, up by 51.1% from $758mn in 2013. The debt to China made up around a third of Kyrgyzstan’s total external debt at the end of 2014, which amounted to $3,437mn, or equivalent to 50.9% of GDP. The World Bank’s International Development Association is the second largest lender with $671.5mn and the Asian Development Bank is third with $583.6mn. Tajikistan exported over 110mn kWh of electricity to Afghanistan in January and February, up by 57% from 70mn kWh in the same period of 2014. Total proceeds for the sales of electricity to Afghanistan grew by 70% y/y to $3.9mn in the period.

German firm Ferrostaal Industrial Projects will start works at a $115mn wind farm in Mongolia in April. The wind park will have a total installed capacity of 54MW and will be up and running by the end of 2016. Mongolian non-performing loans (NPLs) stood at MNT667,018bn ($336mn) at the end of February, up by 11.6% from a year earlier. Excluding the NPLs belonging to three banks currently in liquidation (Anod Bank, Zoos Bank and Savings Bank), NPLs amounted to MNT424,430mn at the end of February, up by 47.3% from February 2014. Kazakhstan has cut the export duty on crude oil from $80 to $60 per tonne because of the low price of oil. Oil producers have asked the government to make the duty zero as the low price of oil is forcing them to cut investment in production and to lay off the personnel. They argue that the reduction in the duty from $80 to $60 per tonne decreased the tax burden on oil companies only by 2%.

The shares of Kazakhstan's national power Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has appointed grid company, Kegoc, have fallen by more than his 27-year old son Rustam Emomali as anti30% since they floated on the Kazakhstan Stock corruption tsar. Prior to this appointment, Exchange (Kase) in early December under the Rustam Emomali had headed the country’s government's "People's IPO" programme. The Customs Service since late 2013. Nepotism and shares were sold to the population in a monthcorruption remain a major problem in this Central long campaign at KZT505 ($2.8) per share. They Asian country, where President Rahmon has traded at around KZT347 ($1.87) on March 19. ruled the country with an iron fist since 1997. The appointment may be an indication that Rahmon is Georgia intends to revive the Soviet-era grooming his son as a potential successor. Tskaltubo Spa Resort with French property developers. Tskaltubo was popular during Soviet The National Bank of Tajikistan has halted direct times and had a busy train line running weekly to sales of dollars in a move aimed to limit a further Moscow. The project requires a total investment weakening of the Tajik somoni in the currency of $750mn to restore thermal baths, rehabilitate market. Commercial banks are still allowed to state-owned hotels and build new facilities, sell dollars, but under the strict control of central including medical ones, restaurants and tropical authorities. gardens.

bne Chart March 20, 2015

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Poorer CEE/CIS nations are fertile ground for public-sector graft Transparency International’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) measures the perceived levels of corruption in different countries across a number of studies. Comparing the results of the 2014 CPI with per-capita GDP across Central and Eastern Europe/Commonwealth of Indepedent States (CEE/CIS) reveals a clear correlation between poverty and corruption.

of GDP per capita as well as a low score for corruption perceptions. Not a single non-EU country occupies it, while only two EU member states – Romania and Bulgaria – fall outside of it. The undesirable top-left quadrant represents high perceptions of corruption and money laundering combined with low GDP per capita. It is occupied almost exclusively by Western Balkan states whose post-Soviet redevelopment was hindered by drawn-out conflicts in the 1990s, and CIS countries that have little scope for any real political opposition to their current government.

As the bne:Chart shows, countries with low per-capita GDPs appear to suffer higher CPI scores. The same trend exists when GDP is held up alongside the International Centre for Asset Recovery’s Anti-Money Laundering Index, which measures a country’s propensity for money laundering and terrorism financing.

The top-right quadrant of the chart represents countries that enjoy a higher income alongside high perceptions of corruption. The two notable occupants of this area are Russia and Kazakhstan – both big oil and gas producers.

The bottom-right quadrant of the chart represents countries that enjoy a high level The impact of corruption on GDP per capita

Comparing per capita GDP to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index 2014 (CPI) and the International Centre for Asset Recovery's Anti Money Laundering Index (AML) illustrates a clear correlation between wealth and levels of corruption/propensity for money laundering. Index measure All

EU member

Anti-Money Laundering Index 2014

Non-member

Corruption Perceptions Index

Tajikistan Uzbekistan

Tajikistan Ukraine

Kyrgyzstan

70 Corruption Perceptions Index score

Turkmenistan

Kosovo 65

Belarus Azerbaijan

Armenia

Serbia

Albania Macedonia

Uzbekistan 50

Kosovo

Armenia

Russia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina 55

Kazakhstan

Albania

Moldova

Russia

Azerbaijan

Bulgaria

Turkey

Kazakhstan

Romania

Median CPI/AML score

Turkey

Belarus

Croatia

Serbia

Latvia

Slovakia

Georgia

Macedonia

Montenegro

Romania

Hungary Hungary

Latvia

Croatia Poland

Czech Republic

Slovakia Czech Republic

Lithuania

Slovenia

Poland

Bulgaria 35

Lithuania

Sources:

Estonia Estonia

Slovenia

Sources: International Centre for Asset Recovery; Transparency International

International Centre for Asset Recovery;

Median GDP 10K

12K GDP per capita ($)

14K

16K

18K

20K

22K

24K

Transparency International

Eastern Europe March 20, 2015

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Foreign firms flee Russia

bne IntelliNews Having made a fortune in Russia in the boom years, today, with no end to the current economic downturn in sight, more and more foreign companies are deciding to pull out.

Europe in the first half of 2008, Russian car sales tumbled as the crisis that year unfolded, dropping by half year-on-year in 2009. Sales started to recover in the following years, but collapsed again after an orgy of buying in December as Russians rushed to The latest in a growing list of global brands convert their cash into tangible assets and protect shuttering or reducing their Russian operation is US their savings from the rapid devaluation of the ruble. carmaker General Motors, which said that it would Car sales were down 38% in February year-on-year close its St Petersburg car plant and stop selling its and there is little prospect of a recovery this year. Opel marque in Russia by the end of this year. The Kremlin was understandably disappointed by The group is not departing entirely. GM said that GM's decision as it has invested a lot of time and it would focus instead on the premium end of the effort into building up the domestic production of cars in partnership with foreign producers. market with its Cadillac brand, while it will stop producing Chevrolet cars, but will import them from the US instead. It will also stop the contract "The company, unfortunately, disadvantages assembly of Chevrolet vehicles at the plant of the itself amid the period when the market starts its Russian carmaker GAZ this year as well. activation phase. Anyway everything develops in a cyclical manner and growth will come after the Sales of Chevrolet, which was the eighth bestsales drop. We can say it for sure now. Then selling brand in Russia last year, fell 29% in 2014, the company will find itself among the losers," while Opel sales fell 20%, both falling faster than Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. the overall market decline of 10%. GM has been one of the longest standing foreign investors in Russia having set up operations in the 1990s in the progressive region of Kaluga a few hundred kilometers south of Moscow.

GM's main rival Ford also plans to cut production, but as it has less exposure to Russia the cuts will not be as dramatic. Last year, GM sold 189,000 cars in Russia, making it the fifthlargest producer, while Ford sold 66,000 vehicles, GM expects to take a net charge of up to $600mn in according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nissan the first quarter of 2015 as a result of its decision. Motor decided to suspend production at its St Petersburg plant between March 16 and March 31 because of weak sales in the Russian market. After briefly becoming the largest car market in

Eastern Europe March 20, 2015

Banks have been even harder hit by the devaluation than manufacturers or industry. Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International said in February it would cut back inÂ Russia as part ofÂ a radical overhaul to protect the bank's core capital.

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political tensions with the West that have made its job impossible than for business reasons.

Still, if the European and American companies are pulling out then other companies from the emerging world are happy to come in and fill their The move mirrors similar decisions following the shoes: Chinese investment into Russian economy 2008 crash when several foreign owned banks will match those from Europe within two to three beat a tactical retreat. Italy's Unicredit shrank its years, CEO of Russian Direct Investment Fund Russian business and both Britain's HSBC and (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev said on March 11. Barclays bank abandoned efforts to roll out retail services in Russia, incurring very large loses in "We think that this year and next year there the process. will be much more money coming from China, which will replace the European money. Within In other sectors the damage has been less two to three years the investment inflow from visible but one noticeable departure was the US China may be equal to that from Europe in PR firm Ketchum, which ended the bulk of its recent years," Dmitriev said, adding that he was work for the Russian Federation in the US and referring to tens of billions of dollars worth of Europe. However, Ketchum's decision to give up investment all across Russia.Â on Russia was probably driven was much by the

Eastern Europe March 20, 2015

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EU links Russian sanctions to fulfillment of Minsk agreements

Ben Aris in Moscow The European Union has voted to link the extension of sanctions on Russia to the fulfillment of the two Minsk ceasefire agreements. It stopped short of immediately re-imposing the sanctions regime, which is due to start expiring in July, but nevertheless the decision, at a summit in Brussels on March 19, will mean a de facto sixmonth extension of European sanctions. A formal, legal decision on whether to extend the sanctions on Russia's financial, defence and energy sectors that expire in July will only be taken at the next EU summit in June. "This evening, we discussed Ukraine and Russia. Leaders decided to align our sanctions regime to the implementation of the Minsk agreements brokered by [German] Chancellor [Angela] Merkel and [French] President [Francois] Hollande," European Council President Donald Tusk told journalists after the first of two European Council meetings. "The European Council agreed that the duration of economic sanctions will be clearly linked to the complete implementation of the Minsk agreements, bearing in mind that this is only foreseen by the end of 2015," he said.

Among the main points in the deal is for Russia to secure its border with Ukraine and hand over control of the region to Ukrainian authorities. This week's decision notes that the Minsk II agreement will not expire until December, leaving Russia on the hook until then. Hence the link to Minsk II agreement is a de facto sixmonth extension of sanctions – a compromise between the hardliners like Poland, and Russia's friends in the EU. The decision will come as a blow to Moscow, which had been hoping that divisions within the EU would prevent the sanctions from being extended. The EU's sanctions are due to automatically expire between July and September unless there is a unanimous decision by EU members to extend them. In recent months several members of the EU have expressed their concern over the sanctions and their apparent unwillingness to re-impose them when the current resume expires. This "pro-Russian" group includes countries like Hungary, Spain and Bulgaria, all of which have significant economic ties to Russia. Even Germany is seen to be sitting on the fence: on the one hand Merkel is adamant that Europe should not cave into Russian aggression, but on the other hand the German business lobby, which is heavily invested into Russia, is keen to normalise the situation and get back to work.

There have been two attempts to end the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine that produced agreements at summits in the Belarusian capital of Minsk in September and March. A 13-point package on the implementation of a ceasefire and The Financial Times (FT) reports that Poland other measures agreed at the September 2014 has been isolated in Brussels in its push for the Minsk summit was adopted at the February talks. toughest response to Russia. Tusk has been

Eastern Europe March 20, 2015

holding out not only for restrictions on Russiansanctioned banks raising finance in the western capital markets and on exports of oil drilling technology to Russia, but also wants new EU powers to reject members' gas supply contracts signed with Russian state-owned Gazprom if they were deemed to break EU law. “Most bilateral contracts with our dominant supplier, Russia, are concluded on a long-term basis, sometimes more than 20 years. That can be unhealthy,” Tusk said, reports the FT. However, observers say that Tusk will keep working on this aspect of potential sanctions, which might be added at a later date. “It is not an empty conclusion, you can be sure,” Tusk said. “I feel after today’s decision, when it comes to energy security, all member states are ready to co-ordinate and co-operate with the institutions and the commission to ensure gas contracts are secure for Europe.” However, yesterday's communiqué only mentioned the economic and financial sanctions, leaving the EU with the possibility of "rewarding" Moscow for progress in implementing the Minsk agreements by lifting some of the visa bans and thawing asset freezes the EU has imposed on scores of Russian and Ukrainian citizens and organizations if the situation in Eastern Ukraine improves. "If things deteriorate on the ground, we will strengthen sanctions. If, on the other hand, the situation remains stable and improves, then we might envisage a re-examination of the scale of the sanctions package and possibly ease it," a French diplomatic source told Reuters. Linking the European sanctions regime to the implementation of the Minsk agreements will in effect perpetuate them for the foreseeable future as the conflict is unlikely to be resolved by the December deadline: Russia is holding out for much bigger changes in Ukraine and is unlikely to loosen its hold over the Donbas until it ticks off all the items on its wish list.

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"Linking EU sanctions to full implementation of the Minsk agreement means they are here to stay for a long time," Dmitri Trenin, head of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace in Moscow said in a tweet. While the Minsk agreements laid the ground work for a de-militarized zone and a line of demarcation between the Moscow-backed separatists on one side and the Ukrainian army and its related militias on the other side, the agreements did not broach the topic of how to deal with the substantive issues behind the conflict, such as Russia's objections to Ukraine's Nato membership bid or the proposed trade regime with the EU, which need to be resolved before the conflict can be brought to an end. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to keep forces in the field in Ukraine's Donbas region until these questions are solved. And that could take a very long time.

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Eurasia March 20, 2015

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Russia tightens grip on South Ossetia

Monica Ellena in Tbilisi As Alexander “The Surgeon” Zaldostanov and his Night Wolves paraded through Sevastopol’s streets this week to celebrate Crimea’s whirlwind annexation by Russia one year ago, the Kremlin tightened its grip on another chunk of land beyond its borders. The “alliance on integration” Russian President Vladimir Putin and South Ossetia’s leader, Leonid Tibilov, signed on March 18 represents a merger of key institutions, including security and customs, as well as a “simplification of procedures to acquire Russian citizenship”. The Georgian Foreign Ministry condemned the treaty, calling it an “actual annexation of occupied Tskhinvali region” by Russia. South Ossetia and Abkhazia broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia officially recognised both regions as independent states after a brief war against Georgia in 2008. Since then the Russian Federation has effectively gained complete control over both regions. Putin said that the implementation of the alliance “is backed by serious financial resources”, a statement that made the treaty sound like an investment deal. After inking the document, Tibilov hailed the agreement as “the best possible guarantee of state security”. The treaty comes four months after Moscow signed the “alliance and strategic partnership” with Abkhazia, Georgia’s other breakaway region. Then Moscow pledged RUB9.2bn (€205mn at

the time of signing, €142.4mn today) to Sokhumi - support that Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s aide in charge of relations with the two regions, promised will not fall short despite Russia’s economic challenges. The West has condemned both treaties. The US State Department stated that it does not recognise the legitimacy of any so-called treaty between the de facto leaders of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia and the Russian Federation and expressed concern regarding the timing. The agreement between Putin and Tibilov was signed on the same day as the 31st round of the Geneva Talks, the platform launched after the August 2008 conflict. Georgia’s chief negotiator in the talks called the treaty and its timing a “deliberate insult” against these talks. For the European Union, the agreement “goes against efforts to strengthen stability in the region”. Nato labelled it as “yet another move by the Russian Federation that hampers ongoing efforts by the international community to strengthen security and stability in the region”. The final text is similar to the treaty signed with Abkhazia, but it contains clauses that envisage a much deeper integration over a term of 25 years, renewable for an additional 10 years. The Kremlin pledged RUB9bn (€139.9mn) for “projects for social and economic development” of South Ossetia between 2015 and 2017. The Russian President added that an additional RUB1bn (€15.4mn) will be allocated to implement “the goals” laid out in the treaty and added that

Eurasia March 20, 2015

between 2008 and 2014 Moscow’s assistance to Tskhinvali amounted to RUB43bn (€665.4mn). It envisions a joint defence and security zone between the two countries, integration of customs agencies and an open border. It also contemplates setting up a Joint InformationCoordinating Centre of law enforcement agencies to “coordinate” the fight against “organised crime and other grave crimes”.

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less than 50,000 in South Ossetia – are left with few choices. They rely politically, economically, and militarily on their big neighbour. Russian troops help maintain their de-facto independence and the Russian market provides an economic lifeline. Russia sidelines the local languages in everyday life, the ruble is the local currency, and 90% of the population holds a Russian passport. Moscow also pays pensions to those with a Russian passport. As for Abkhazia, every summer hundreds of thousands of sun-hungry Russians flock to its pebbled beaches, providing muchneeded income.

The Kremlin committed to co-finance a gradual increase of state employees’ salaries, bringing them up to current wages in Russia’s North Caucasus Federal District, and to increase However, while Sukhumi has been maintaining pensions for residents holding a Russian passport its independence, even from Moscow, for years, from 2016. South Ossetia has been more open to the idea of being reunified with its mighty neighbour. As On the surface, both regions could hardly be Tbilov said on June 2, 2014, South Ossetia is more tied to Moscow than they already are. Their already integrating with Russia, in preparation for people – 240,000 in Abkhazia and an estimated joining the Russian Federation “at the right time”.

Tbilisi court controversially extends ex-mayor’s pre-trial detention Monica Ellana in Tbilisi A Tbilisi court on March 15 accepted the request of the Prosecutor’s Office of Georgia to scale up charges against Gigi Ugulava, meaning that controversially the capital’s former mayor, who has been in jail for eight months now, will remain in detention until his trial begins. Since the Georgian Dream coalition gained power in 2012, the Georgian government has been urged by its Western allies to not use the justice system to settle scores against its political opponents in the former ruling party, the United National

Movement (UNM). The calls began when dozens of officials during the years of former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s rule from 2004 to 2013 were arrested on charges such as abuse of office and corruption. In February, the special rapporteur of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly, Pedro Agramunt, condemned Georgia’s pre-trial detention practises after Ugulava’s request for bail was denied on February 18. According to Ugulava’s defense lawyer, the decision to bring harsher charges was aimed

Eurasia March 20, 2015

specifically at extending the opposition politician’s pre-trial detention, which was otherwise due to expire in early April. “The content of the charges actually remains the same, but they [the prosecutors] made the charges graver, which has only one purpose – to ask the court to keep Ugulava in prison,” the ex-mayor’s defense lawyer, Beka Basilaia,told journalists on March 14. The Prosecutor’s Office revised the charges stemming from events that occurred in November 2007 when police violently ended several days of peaceful demonstrations organized by Georgia’s opposition calling for early elections and the release of political prisoners. The confrontation also led to a police raid on and “seizure” of Imedi TV station and other assets owned at the time by tycoon Badri Pararkatsishvili, who died in February 2008.

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years for abuse of office, while Kezerashvili lives in France. In February, a court in the southern French city of Aix-en-Provence ruled out his extradition on account of what “appeared to be politically motivated” request from Georgia. The new leadership in Georgia denies accusations that they are conducting a political witch-hunt and have promised fair trials. But Western countries have expressed concern that the new government has used selective justice and political persecution against opponents.

In a statement released on March 14, the US embassy in Georgia criticised the court’s decision and said that the revision of criminal charges “appears to be an effort to subvert the nine-month limit on pre-trial detention”. “We encourage the government of Georgia to take steps to strengthen the rule of law and avoid any perception it may be engaging in a campaign of Ugulava has been in pre-trial detention since early politically-motivated justice,” the statement read. July 2014 in connection with a separate, though unrelated case involving money-laundering Last December, the European Parliament charges. But the maximum term of pre-trial ratified the free trade and association deal with detention is nine months, which was about to Georgia, welcoming the Georgian authorities’ expire. As the Tbilisi City Court has positively ruled “recent reforms” to “strengthen” democratic on prosecution’s motion for pre-trial detention, institutions”. The accompanying resolution, Ugulava will now remain in custody. however, also expressed concern about “the lack of accountability of the prosecutor’s office” and Saakashvili, of whom Ugulava is a close ally, about numerous former government officials and former prime minister Vano Merabishvili and excurrent opposition figures being charged and defence minister Davit Kezerashvili are also facing imprisoned. It also warned against “the potential criminal charges in the same case. Charges use of the judicial system to fight against political against Kezerashvili as well as former minister of opponents, which could undermine Georgia’s justice Zurab Adeishvili have also been escalated. European course and the efforts of the Georgian Former president Saakashvili has been out of authorities in the area of democratic reform.” the country since November 2013 and has failed to appear at the Prosecutor’s Office after being Civil.ge reported that on March 9, the chairman summoned for questioning. He is currently in of the EP group, Manfred Weber of the European Ukraine where he was appointed an adviser to People’s Party, wrote an open letter to Prime President Petro Poroshenko.. The Prosecutor’s Minister Irakli Garibashvili stating that, “bringing Office has applied for the extradition of both new charges against a major political figure solely Saakashvili and Adeishvili, who is also living in aimed at keeping him in detention will be viewed Ukraine, but the request has been denied. as proof of politically-motivated prosecution and will continue to be destructive for Georgia’s In February, Merabishvili was sentenced to five international image.”

Central Europe March 20, 2015

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Central Europe split by Moscow's WWII ceremony

bne IntelliNews Russia is no doubt delighted to see the invitations to its May 9 event to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II illustrate the tensions in the EU over the ongoing geopolitical stand off. Nowehere is this more obvious than in Central Europe. Slovak President Andrej Kiska announced on March 18 that he will turn down the invitation due to Russia's annexation of Crimea a year ago, as well as the conflict in East Ukraine. In contrast, Czech President Milos Zeman is once again courting controversy by agreeing to attend the event, which is expected to be boycotted by most western leaders. "Considering the developments in Ukraine and Crimea, I don't want to take part in a celebration of army power at a military parade, but I do want to commemorate those who deserve it most from us, namely the soldiers who died in WWII," Kiska said according to TASR. The contrasting stances highlight the way that Zeman, an opponent of sanctions on Russia, continues to disrupt the Czech government's attempt to show that the country is united in support of the EU stance against Russia. Meanwhile in Slovakia, Kiska - an independent and political novice who upset expectations by winning the presidential election in March 2014 - plays almost the opposite role. While he has clearly proclaimed his support for a strong EU policy towards Moscow, the Slovak government remains somewhat ambivalent.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on March 17 that Moscow expects Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to attend, TASS news agency reported. However, Fico's spokeswoman Beatrice Szaboova refused to confirm, saying only that a decision on his participation has not yet been made. Russia has invited 68 world leaders to participate in the celebrations. Among those who have confirmed they will attend are the Chinese, Indian, South African, Vietnamese, and North Korean, Lavrov says. Poland and the Baltic states, which have been pushing for the EU to toughen its stance towards Russia for more than a year, will not be going to Moscow. "There is no way that the president of Poland would partake in this celebration … amid the continuing war in Ukraine," President Bronislaw Komorowski said on Polish television on March 17, according to Tass. Komorowski has instead invited Western leaders to an alternative commemoration in Gdansk on May 8, infuriating Moscow. US President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, alongside several others, have said they will not attend the Russian event. However, at EU level there is little consensus. Countries such as Greece have already announced they plan to attend. Some suggest that the likely presence of other European leaders - including, according to the

Central Europe March 20, 2015

Russian press, delegations from France and the Netherlands - will strengthen speculation that EU commitment to maintaining sanctions against Russia is waning. Merkel has said following talks with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Berlin that the issue of prolonging sanctions against Russia will be decided by June. Political discussions on the economic measures will be resumed at the European Council summit on March 19-20, with a focus on compliance with Minsk ceasefire agreements for the conflict in eastern Ukraine. At the other end of the scale to Poland, Hungary is now one of Russia's staunchest allies in the European bloc, after signing deals on nuclear energy and gas in recent months. For the meantime, it seems Budapest is not especially keen to discuss the May 9 event. However, given Putin's controversial official visit to Hungary in February, and Prime Minister Viktor Orban's penchant for thumbing his nose at policymakers in Brussels, it may be safe to assume the plane is already booked. Slovakia, previously a clear opponent of the West's stance on Russia, has been turning its foreign policy around in recent months. Pressure from Washington and Brussels, and Russia's insistence that it will divert gas flows headed to Europe away from Ukraine appear to have had a strong effect. Slovakia, which carries the gas westwards from the Ukraine border, would be the biggest loser in the EU should Moscow shift gas transit to the south as it claims it plans. In September, Slovakia opposed some of the proposed EU sanctions against Russia relating to capital markets and the ban on exports of some dual-use goods and technologies. Moreover, it claimed the country could lose up to 10,000 jobs if Russia decides to respond to the EU's sanctions by banning car imports from Europe. However, it has since become a stalwart of the effort to send EU gas to Kyiv; the country has meanwhile reported Russian deliveries under its own contract have been cut.

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However, the Slovak political establishment, and particularly the ruling Smer party, still has close ties to Moscow. On top of the clear pressure Moscow is able to exert via the energy sector, that makes policy - and therefore a flight to Moscow in May - a tricky call for Fico. In the Czech Republic, former Social Democrat premier Zeman exhibits no such ambivalence. He has long been noted for his Russian links, and has raised fury with several controversial statements over recent months, including calling the conflict in Ukraine a "civil war". These comments have provoked a war of words between Foreign Minister Lubomir Zaoralek and Prague Castle, with many claiming Zeman is actively seeking to undermine foreign policy. Criticism at home over Zeman's planned attendence at the Moscow commemoration is growing as the date approaches. The Czech president, however, claims his absence would be disrespectful to the Russian soldiers who helped oust the Nazi regime. Opposition politicians have urged the government to refuse to finance the president's trip. However the request, filed by former lower chamber speaker Miroslava Nemcova from the rightwing Civic Democrats, was declined by the Social Democrat-led government. Illustrating the difficulty of his position, Prime Minister - and sworn Zeman enemy - Bohuslav Sobotka insisted the government must follow protocol. The government has been careful to try to tread a neutral line on Ukraine. Like Slovakia, it has supported EU sanctions after some initial hesitation, but Sobotka has questioned their usefulness, though not in such forthright terms as Fico. Voters for Zeman and the Social Democrats - who are increasingly found in the provinces tend to be sceptical of sanctions and receptive to fears about the effect on the Czech economy. In Prague, Zeman's decision to go to Moscow is only stoking the public anger that has been

Central Europe March 20, 2015

rising around the president for some time. A petition signed by 11,000 Czechs was delivered to the Senate on March 18 calling on the the upper house to investigate Zeman's actions and consider impeachment proceedings. According to the organisers, Zeman's opposition to sanctions against the Putin regime means the president is acting against the interests of the Czech Republic, reports Radio Praha.

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The petition comes at a time when support for the increasingly controversial president is declining. A survey by STEM agency showed in February backing for Zeman fell to 43% from 57% four months earlier. Zeman's pro-Russian stance provoked street protests late last year. The president was booed and pelted with eggs during celebrations of the 25th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution on November 17.

Lithuanian parliament approves reintroduction of conscription bne IntelliNews The Lithuanian parliament voted overwhelmingly “From what I hear from some MPs, the discussion in favour of the reintroduction of conscription on is probably going to be very heated,” the March 19, as fear of Russian aggression continues premier said ahead of the session. to build in the region. However, the vote came amidst growing fears in A total of 112 out of 141 MPs voted for the motion, Lithuania – as well as its Baltic neighbours Latvia which will see up to 3,500 men drafted each year. The and Lithuania – of Russian aggression. Moscow legislation aims to boost the number of Lithuanian annexed Crimea a year ago and is accused of supporting rebel forces in east Ukraine. Officials troops to 17,000-22,000, from the current 15,600. in Moscow have, meanwhile, continued to make It's estimated Lithuania will need to spend roughly comments about the rights of the sizable ethinic €6mn on conscription this year. Lithuanian Russian population in Latvia and Estonia. generals have been complaining ever since the abolition of the draft in 2010 that they cannot fill At the same time, Russian military aircraft have up even half the barracks. been buzzing the region. Seven fighters and bombers were intercepted by the Nato Baltic Despite Lithuania's relative lack of ethnic Russian Air Policing mission while flying in international airspace near Latvia on March 18. population compared with its Baltic cousins, the strong support for the motion was somewhat surprising. The response amongst the likely In response, the Baltic states have increased recruits has not been enthusiastic, while analysts defence spending and are actively pursuing have suggested that given the huge superiority of military drills with Nato allies. The so-called Operation Atlantic Resolve drill is currently the Russian military, and Nato's preference for professional armies, the move is little more than a under way, with a convoy of Nato troops and equipment to move through the region in the nod to the domestic political audience. next few weeks. Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevicius had warned that the parliamentary debate could be divisive.

Southeast Europe March 20, 2015

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EU energy dream made real as Turkey breaks ground on Azeri gas export route to Europe David O'Byrne in Kars region, Turkey Turkey has formally broken ground on the construction of the 31bn cubic metres a year (cm/y) Trans Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP), which when operational by the end of 2018 will carry Azerbaijani gas to European markets and reduce the bloc's energy dependence on Russia.

operator Botas has 30%, and BP, which is the operator of the Shah Deniz field and only formally joined the TANAP consortium on March 13 after two years of negotiations, has 12%.

Of the 16bn cm/y that TANAP will initially carry, 6bn cm/y will be taken by Botas and supplied to The pipeline of 1,850km will initially carry 16bn consumers in north-west Turkey. The remaining cm/y of gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 10bn cm/y will be transited to the Turkey-Greece gasfield, with the remaining 15bn cm/y of capacity border, from where it will be transferred to the expected to be filled with gas from other Caspian planned 20bn cm/y Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), fields or elsewhere in the region. which will carry the gas through Greece and Albania, and then across the Adriatic to Italy, from At a ground breaking ceremony on March 17 in where it can either supply the domestic Italian Turkey's Kars region, attended by presidents market or be transited to Central Europe. Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani president announced that he expects the first gas That 16bn cm/y of gas will be supplied from to flow through the line in 2018, and beyond that Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field, which is being he foresees the line will be able to carry more developed by a consortium led by BP (28.8%) and Azeri gas. “We have proven [gas] reserves of 7.6 with major shareholders including Turkey's state trillion cm, and more optimistic estimates suggest oil company TPAO (19%) and Socar (16.7%). the real reserves could be double that,” he said. The ground breaking ceremony for TANAP brings Erdogan for his part stressed the importance of to an end more than 15 years of discussions on the pipeline for the whole Eurasian region. “[The how to realise the EU's long-mooted "Southern EU energy project] the Southern Gas Corridor, Gas Corridor” – a project borne out of the bloc's when it is fully implemented, will provide a strong increasing dependence on imports from Russia link between the Caspian and Eurasia region and beginning in the late 1990s, which prompted the Europe,” he said. EU to launch proposals for a new route for imports from the Caspian and North Middle East via Turkey. The importance of the project for Europe was also stressed by Maros Sefcovic, vice president With the construction of TANAP guaranteed by in charge of the energy union for the European Baku and Ankara, and 16bn cm/y of gas secured Commission. “This project is of immense from the consortium developing Azerbaijan's Shah importance for Europe, as it will supply the only Deniz gasfield, the development of TAP is also new source of gas currently available,” he said. now certain, and the development of the longTANAP is being developed by a consortium in planned corridor also now guaranteed. The only which the Azeri state energy firm Socar holds question remaining is how to fill the remaining 58%, Turkey's state gas importer and Transit 15bn cm/y of TANAP’s capacity.

Southeast Europe March 20, 2015

While both Socar and BP have stated their preference for using gas from other Caspian fields in which both companies have interests, the inter-governmental agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan for TANAP also allows for the line to carry gas from Turkmenistan, and the Turkish parliament recently approved a bill allowing Turkmen gas to be transited through Turkey to Europe.

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With more Caspian gasfields yet to be developed and the prospect of both Turkmen and Iraqi gas being available, Azerbaijan has already floated the possibility of a second TANAP line to be laid parallel, doubling the currently planned capacity. That, though, will depend on how much gas the European market needs and when.

With Turkey and Russia already in serious talks over the construction of Moscow's planned 63bn That possibility was further bolstered last year cm/y so-called “Turk Stream” pipeline through when Malaysia's state oil company Petronas, Turkey, serious questions remain over when, which already holds the rights to three gasfields and indeed if, an expanded TANAP could become in the Turkmen sector of the Caspian took a 15.5% viable. Not to mention the question of whether stake in the Shah Deniz consortium. Petronas Turkey wants to go against the interests of its already holds the rights to three gasfields in the close ally Azerbaijan, damage its prospects Turkmen sector of the Caspian and is looking of joining the EU, and further increase its for markets for the gas. Whether this will result dependency on Russia, which already meets in the construction of a long-planned gas export close to 60% of Turkey's gas needs. line across the Caspian from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan remains to be seen. However, an alternative exists in the form of exports overland via existing infrastructure through Iran – the sole hurdle being the need for Tehran to finalise a deal with the West over its nuclear programme. Also technically possible would be for gas from Iraqi Kurdistan to be transited via TANAP. Both the Kurdistan Regional Government and developers operating in the region have stated that gas could be made available for export to Turkey and Europe as soon as 2018. Although for that to be realised, it would require both the approval of the Iraqi central government in Baghdad and an agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan to amend the inter-governmental agreement for TANAP. With several options for filling TANAP – and by extension TAP also – the EU should be reassured that its Southern Gas Corridor is finally being realised. However while 31bn cm/y is a healthy start for the corridor, it is still dwarfed by Russian exports to Europe which topped 160bn cm in 2013 and are expected to continue rising.

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Southeast Europe March 20, 2015

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Romanian government drafts bill to help CHF loan debtors bne IntelliNews Romania’s government has completed and published for public consultation the draft of a bill aimed at helping people who have defaulted on their foreign currency loans because of significant exchange rate variations. The bill was drafted in response to the protests of CHF debtors, whose instalments surged in February after the Swiss central bank abandoned the fix exchange rate regime. The mechanism is also available to debtors of loans denominated in any other foreign currency that strengthens significantly against the national currency.

incomes cannot benefit of the state guarantees. Notably, the bill does not apply to loans that have been sold by local lenders to foreign entities. This is the case of some foreign financial groups that have sold portfolios of loans to entities within the group operating abroad. In some cases, the debtor is not even aware of the change.

The CHF loans cannot generate systemic problems in Romania because of the small share in total loans or GDP, but the CHF’s strengthening has created major problem for debtors and several banks that accumulated the bulk of the loans denominated in Swiss francs. Conversion of the loans at the historic exchange rate, namely The government, through the national guarantee fund for small and medium enterprises the exchange rate when contracts were signed in 2006-2007 – as debtors have asked - would cost (FNGCIMM) will insure half of the loan converted from foreign currencies to local currency, after banks RON5.7bn (€1.3bn), or 0.8% of GDP, central the bank applies a 15% discount to the value bank governor Mugur Isarescu estimated. resulting from the conversion at the exchange rate at the date of conversion. The conversion is The stock of CHF loans is currently around requested by the debtor and has to be approved by RON9.8bn (€2.2bn), or 4.6% of the stock of the bank. The recipient of the state guarantee will non-government loans, the central bank said. have to pay a fee in exchange for the insurance However, this figure does not include the stock extended by FNGCIMM. The bank is entitled of CHF loans transferred by local financial institutions to their foreign entities, a practice that to demand from the debtor the other 50% not mainly applies to OTP Bank loans. covered by the state guarantees. Only debtors with incomes below a certain threshold – set under the draft at RON3,000 per month - can benefit from the guarantees extended by the state under the draft bill. Separately, debtors whose monthly instalments after the conversion of the loan from foreign to local currency does not exceed 25% of their monthly

The distribution of the CHF loans by banks is as follows: Bancpost Romania (32%), Volksbank Romania (24%), Piraeus Bank Romania (20%), Raiffeisen Romania (11%), Banca Romaneasca (7%), OTP Bank (2%) and other banks (4%). Of the 40 local banks, 11 have extended CHF loans.

Opinion March 20, 2015

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BEYOND THE BOSPHORUS:

Erdogan – a victim of hubris

Suna Erdem in London They’re banning Minecraft in Turkey. Great, I’m moving back. Shame they had to un-ban Twitter and YouTube. They should go the whole hog and prohibit the internet – then we parents could flock there, safe in the knowledge our children won’t be trolled, shamed or groomed online.

Erdogan’s party came to power in 2002 and was for many years one of Turkey’s best ever governments. It presided over a remarkable economic turnaround and improved Turkey’s international standing.

But paranoid parents apart, most would judge a ban on Minecraft to be ridiculous. It’s also arbitrary. If you worry about violent games, ban Call of Duty, not a children’s construction game where they blow up the occasional pig. However, like many eye-catching stories that emanate from Turkey, it’s not quite true.

I’ve interviewed Erdogan a few times, and his charisma is undeniable. But he’s also like many authoritarian Turkish men I knew and was irritated by while growing up there. He delights in a brashness he believes to be authentic and is quick to take umbrage – as the many he sued for satirizing him can testify. If you dent their pride, these men burn boats.

Much uttered about Turkey in recent years has the flavour of a joke – stories of criminalising adultery and banning abortions turned out to be false. The hapless parliamentary speaker Bülent Arınç recently said ludicrously that women shouldn’t laugh in public, and an outcry ensued when the government restricted alcohol advertising. Yet women still guffaw with impunity and a friend who owns a restaurant says obtaining an alcohol license is easier than ever.

Early on, Erdogan broke taboos and invested much political capital in changing Turkey’s hard line policy on Cyprus and securing candidacy for EU membership. He felt snubbed when Europe allowed Cyprus to become a veto-wielding EU member while still divided, and again when Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy openly opposed full Turkish membership, reinforcing his view that the EU doesn’t want a Muslim state in the fold.

These stories are entertaining – and I had great fun during my years as Turkey correspondent of The Times – but the regular reference to the government’s perceived Islamist ambitions often disguises what’s really happening.

At home, Erdogan was also under siege from a vocal urbanised elite worried he would put their daughters in headscarves. I spent many a dinner party arguing this was unlikely and was called desperately naïve by people who believe 9/11 was a conspiracy by “the CIA and the Jews”. The fears persisted, and in 2008 the Constitutional

Prime minister-turned-President Recep Tayyip

Opinion March 20, 2015

Court nearly shut down Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK) for alleged Islamism. Then came the shock of military intervention in the presidential elections. Erdogan’s government stormed the ensuing snap polls, but his paranoia increased as he felt slighted at home and abroad. This is where his politics started going wrong, and the wild stories written about him began to converge with the truth. Erdogan teamed up with a wily Muslim cleric to neuter the politically overactive military and its antidemocracy supporters. But the cause expanded to encompass those Erdogan or his allies simply didn’t like. He also took control of much of the media through his cronies. The brutal crackdown on young anti-government protesters in Istanbul’s Gezi Park two years ago was a defining moment. From campaigning against the media-controlling establishment, Erdogan suddenly personified everything he was supposed to be fighting against. With eyes only for his grassroots supporters, Erdogan is now surrounded by sycophants. “He doesn’t care any more what people think of him,” one of his close aides told me, “or what the West thinks.” One wonders what might have happened if he’d felt more welcomed by the EU – whose demands on human rights and the economy had been a great driver for Turkey’s early 21st century renaissance. Despite his international fall from grace, Erdogan clings on. Detractors talk about his iron grip, crushing of dissent and promotion of backward, knuckle-dragging Islamists. But the main reason his support remains strong is the economy. It was no coincidence AK was elected in 2002 after Turkey’s worst post-war economic crisis – and, under Erdogan, GDP per head has grown from $3,000 into double figures. Many voters care little

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about You Tube bans, but like what they see – new roads, bridges, shopping centres, public transport, houses, mortgages, landscaped kerbsides, the power of the lira in their pocket… When I worked in Turkey for Reuters in the 1990s – dark years of state violence and a dismal economy – my wages increased by several million lira each month. AK has managed to knock six zeroes off the currency. A senior opposition politician told me that even his mother won’t support him: “She doesn’t care how rude Erdoğan is – as long as she can afford better vegetables at the market, he gets her vote.” Turkey is on tenterhooks, as the economy is now struggling. Moody’s has the country on its lowest investment grade rating, Baa3, with a negative outlook. The current account deficit remains wide and both Fitch and Standard & Poor’s could also soon issue a downgrade. This is probably why Erdoğan has been unusually reticent after being slapped down by Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, as well as the central bank chief, for trying to force a vote-winning interest rate cut. The most recent polls show more Turks oppose AK than support it and many are undecided. Fears of an impending economic crisis are widespread. As he battled real and imaginary demons, has Erdogan taken his eye off the ball and forgotten to insist on good governance? So forget the headlines about headscarves and alcohol and a supposed sympathy for Isis, Erdogan looks like he has fallen prey to hubris after three terms in power, and neglected the things that matter. It’s something that has happened to many a leader, from Thatcher to Blair. Simple, quotidian and devoid of any conspiracy or dangerous Islamism. How disappointingly boring.

Weekly Lists March 20, 2015

bne: Infrastructure Russia’s regions trail Putin’s roadbuilding drive bne IntelliNews

Below is a selection of stories from bne's lists. bne offers a variety of daily, weekly and monthly lists to subscribers, including: daily lists for Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Central Europe, Southeast Europe and Eurasia; the weekly lists Banker, Deal, Credit, Investor, Stocks; and monthly lists Real Estate and Infrastructure. For more information, please visit the website at www.bne.eu.

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Russia's cash-strapped regions are in trouble as they have been unable to fulfil President Vladimir Putin's orders to double spending on roads. The failure will be a blow to the Kremlin which was hoping to give the economy a Keynesian boost growth from upping spending on infrastructure. Road building as been a centrepiece of Russia's plans to spend over $1 trillion on infrastructure and an extra ruble of tax was added to the price of petrol to pay for it. However, despite the extra funds, the crisis has hit Russia's regions even harder than the federal government, and desperately needed spending on road building has been the first victim. Spending on roads was RUB345bn ($5.6bn) in 2014, according to the Association of Regional Road Management (RADOR), reports Vedomosti, which is down from the previous year's spending and about half of the 2008 total.

Romania plans sale of airport, port and energy companies bne IntellinNews

The Romanian government plans to sell 25% of hydropower company Hidroelectrica by the end of the year, Prime Minister Victor Ponta said at a meeting with foreign media on March 17, quoted by Ziarul Financiar daily. The plans sketched by Ponta are highly optimistic, since Hidroelectrica is still under insolvency, and given the complexity of preliminary evaluation and due diligence needed before floating the shares of a company of this size. The manager of Romania’s Fondul Proprietatea (FP) previously said that no major state-owned companies are expected to hold IPOs in 2015. With Hidroelectrica still under insolvency procedures, even an IPO in 2016 “could be very challenging”, Greg Konieczny, executive vice president of Templeton Emerging Markets Group and manager of FP, told journalists on January 21. The government also wants to float shares in Constanta port and Bucharest airport in dual listings in Bucharest and London this year, Ponta added. At least 15% of the shares in the two companies would be sold in the planned IPOs. The government will also agree with the financial market regulator ASF a list of the state-controlled firms that could sell part of their assets or shares. Energy group CE Oltenia will be on the list.

Weekly Lists March 20, 2015

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bne:TMT

Scripps Networks Interactive announced on March 16 it has won the race to buy a 52.7% stake in Polish multi-platform media company TVN.

Scripps wins race for Poland’s TVN

The US developer of lifestyle TV and internet content has agreed to buy the Polish station from ITI and Canal+ Group for €584m in cash, while it will take on €840m of debt.

bne IntelliNews

TVN gives Scripps, which joined the race to buy Poland’s largest media group only in the last few weeks, a portfolio of free-to-air and pay TV lifestyle and entertainment channels. It includes Poland’s leading 24-hour news channel TVN24 and business news channel TVN24 Biznes i Swiat. TVN enjoyed a market-leading 22% share of Polish viewing in 2014.

EU investors buy Bulgaria’s Vivacom bne IntelliNews

LIC33, a group of unnamed EU investors, has agreed to buy a majority stake in Bulgaria’s largest by revenue telecommunication company Vivacom, Dnevnik daily reported quoting a company statement to the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). LIC33, which claims to be specialising in investments in troubled companies in emerging markets, has acquired stakes also in "other leading companies in Bulgaria" that are not named. The new owner will refinance Vivacom's debts, estimated at €900mn. The deal is subject to regulatory approval. Vivacom is the brand name of the Bulgarian Telecommunications Company (BTC), formerly the state-owned fixed-line monopoly. Controversial businessman Tsvetan Vassilev is presently BTC’s biggest shareholder with a stake of slightly over 43%. VTB Capital, the investment unit of sanctions-hit Russian financial group VTB, holds a stake of about 33% and the remaining shares are held by BTC creditors.

Weekly Lists March 20, 2015

bne:Banker Cargill's leap from Ukraine's Delta Bank may have been too late Graham Stack in Kyiv

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Cargill, the US food commodities trader, took over around $100mn in assets from Delta Bank just weeks before Ukraine's fourth largest bank was declared insolvent on March 2, according to newspaper reports and leaked documents. The reported move has sparked huge controversy, but it is not clear whether America's largest privately owned company will actually be even able to realise the value of the assets it has allegedly taken over. According to a report in Ekonomicheskaya Pravda, Cargill, which has a 30% equity stake in Delta, reassigned to itself Delta Bank assets in February, in the form of letters of credit provided to Ukrainian traders totalling nearly $100mn. According to the report, the sum was roughly equivalent to the value of Cargill's equity stake. The article argued that Cargill - ranked by Forbes in 2014 as the largest US private company with revenues of $134.9bn - by this means rescued its equity investment before the bank collapsed, at a cost to depositors. Delta Bank was Ukraine's fourth largest commercial bank by assets, and the second largest privately owned bank, until it was declared insolvent. Cargill took a 30% stake in Delta Bank in 2010, after having provided wholesale financing to Delta Bank in the runup to the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Poland’s Idea Bank sets ambitious target for IPO bne IntelliNews

The maximum price on the forthcoming initial public offering of Poland's Idea Bank has been set at PLN32 (€7.75) per share, owner Getin Holding announced in a regulatory statement on March 19. The pricing sees the Polish financial group targetting a valuation of PLN2.8bn on the unit, or what looks to be an ambitious 1.9-times book value. The bank will offer up to 7mn existing and up to 20mn new shares. Overall, the listing on the will see 30.7% of the bank listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Idea plans to debut on the bourse on April 16, despite the current pressures the Polish banking sector is facing. The IPO aims at raising capital in order to grow Idea's core lending business for small and medium enterprises, as well as boost factoring and leasing business lines. Analysts suggested Idea's need for capital must be strong, and it will be aware that it will have to accept the valuation the market offers.

Weekly Lists March 20, 2015

bne:Credit Romania extends MTN programme bne IntelliNews

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Romania’s government has increased the limit of the external borrowing under the 2014-2016 medium-term notes (MTN) programme by €3bn to €18bn in order to accommodate planned issues of Eurobonds aimed at public debt financing in 2015 and next year, Ziarul Financiar daily reported on March 18. The 2014-2018 MTN programme is in fact an extension of the previous programme opened in 2010 and it was initially designed to cover €7bn financing over the three-year period (2014-2016) on the top of the other €8bn financing under the initial MTN programme 2011-2013. The extension for 2014-2016 was decided by the government in November 2013, when the cap on the programme was lifted from €8bn to €15bn. The Romanian government has sent out a request to banks for proposals for a new euro- denominated bond, Reuters reported earlier in March quoting unofficial sources. Romania last tapped the bond market in October 2014, when the sovereign issued a €1.5bn 10-year bond with a 2.875% coupon, at a yield of 2.97% (185bps above mid-swap) - the lowest cost in the 25-year postcommunist period.

Hungary looking east for new bond bne IntelliNews

Hungary is mulling a bond issue in the Middle East and/or Far East next year, the recently appointed head of state debt manager AKK said on March 18. Gyorgy Barcza reiterated that the country does not plan to tap the foreign debt market in 2015. Yet, next year the country will have to repay €5.5bn of foreign currency debt, significantly above the €2.3bn due in 2015, so AKK might return to the international markets. However, despite the momentum on European markets thanks to the ECB's bond buying programme, the debt manager said he is examining new markets. Barcza mentions the Middle and Far East as potential targets.