Businessmirror september 18, 2016

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Sunday, September 18, 2016 Vol. 11 No. 344

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MRT trains still dangerous–exec Remittances expected to be volatile in next D few months–economist By Lorenz S. Marasigan

Locsin named envoy to UN

@lorenzmarasigan

ESPITE recording marked improvement in maintenance, the Metro Rail Transit (MRT) Line 3, which runs on Epifanio de los Santos Avenue, could still face possible derailments should cracks in the trains’ wheels and the sorry state of the rail tracks continue to persist.

MRT Corp. Director Rafael P. Perez de Tagle Jr. warned the public that riding the train line is still a risk, as “maintenance continues to pose a threat to the lives of the riding public.” “The reports of cracks in the wheels of the MRT are alarming and a serious threat to the lives of commuters,” he said. It was reported earlier that long metal cracks were detected in all four pairs of bogie-wheel frames in Car 04; and Cars 48, 11 and 64 are, likewise, also damaged. Continued on A2

Democratic Party supporters hold signs opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership during the first day of the Democratic National Convention on July 25 at the Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Olivier

Locsin

By David Cagahastian @davecaga

B

usinessMirror columnist and lawyer Teodoro “Teddyboy” Locsin Jr. has been appointed as the Philippines’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN), replacing Ambassador Lourdes O. Yparraguirre. President Duterte appointed Locsin on Thursday, a source privy to the appointment said. However, Communications Secretary Martin M. Andanar said Locsin will issue a statement on his appointment on Tuesday. Locsin’s appointment comes at a time when Malacañang officials are trying to mend relations with the UN, after Mr. Duterte’s run-ins with the international body. See “Locsin,” A2

Douliery/Abaca Press/TNS

Obama recruits Kasich, Paulson to sell trade deal U

.S. President Barack Obama on Friday ramped up his campaign to persuade Congress to pass his struggling trade deal with Asia, a pact that remains opposed by both presidential candidates and many rank-and-file lawmakers in each party. Obama invited a bipartisan group of politicians and business leaders to the White House for an Oval Office meeting on the deal, which congressional leaders say is unlikely to get a vote this year. Participants included Republicans John Kasich, the governor of Ohio, and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, as well as Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News. “They know that this is important for our economy and this is important for our national security,” Obama said at the meeting. “If we are not in there making sure that fair trade is established in the Asian market, we’re

Opinions on foreign trade

A Gallup poll asks Americans what they think foreign trade means for the U.S. Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports? Opportunity

65% 55 45 35

58%

48% 44% 34%

25 15

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

View foreign trade mainly as an opportunity for the U.S. by party: Democrats

Dear Lord, are You saying this to us? “If it has been a long time since your last confession, welcome back!” Every saint had a history and every sinner has a future. The Lord’s love, mercy and reconciliation is available all the time. Reconciliation is what God does. We prepare for it by opening ourselves up, by reflecting upon the areas in our lives bound by darkness, hurt, shame or guilt into which God so deeply desires to enlighten, heal and free. We prepare with the simple question: Where might God be offering us forgiveness, healing and freedom? We pray for some reflections and be ready to be sorry for them. Amen! The Light is On for You, Shared by Louie M. Lacson,HFL

President Barack Obama, joined by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (left) and Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (right), talks to the media at the start of a meeting with business, government and national security leaders in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Friday to discuss how the Trans-Pacific Partnership can benefit American workers and businesses, and further national security. AP/Carolyn Kaster

PESO exchange rates n US 47.5710

63%

Independents

63%

Republicans 0 Source: Gallup Graphic: Tribune News Service

WELCOME BACK!

Threat

50% 10

20

30

40

50

60

70%

going to be cut out.” Obama hopes the meeting’s participants, also including Ginni Rometty, the chairman and CEO of International Business Machines Corp., and John Bel Edwards, the Democratic governor of Louisiana, can raise pressure on Democrats and Republicans in Congress to ratify the sweeping 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after the November elections. Before the meeting, the White House circulated an op-ed titled “Help American Workers. Pass TPP,” by Bloomberg and the US Chamber of Commerce CEO, Tom Donohue. “It’s imperative that the strong majority of voters who support expanded trade urge members of Congress to pass TPP this year—and hold them accountable for the lost jobs that will result if they fail to do so,” they wrote in Bloomberg View. Continued on A2

By Bianca Cuaresma

@BcuaresmaBM

T

HE inflow of remittances—one of the main pillars of the country’s consumption and overall economic expansion—is expected to be volatile in the coming months, as shifts in both the Filipino migrant workers’ deployment levels and the schedule of the local school year will affect the flow of cash sent to the Philippines. In an analysis following the reported decrease in the country’s remittance flows, Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) associate economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said that, over the next few months, the country will continue to see sharp swings in growth rates. The reported remittance data just last week disappointed markets anew, as the cash sent home by Filipino migrant workers posted the largest monthly decline in July since November last year due to a decline in the deployment of skilled workers. This development pushed the total growth of remittance in the first seven months of the year below the government’s already-prudent projections. In particular, remittances recorded a 5.4-percent decline in July. This contraction is the worst for cash remittances for 2016. This also put the growth of remittances in the first seven months of the year at 3 percent. The government’s projection is for remittances to grow by 4 percent this year. The swings in the growth rates will be attributable, according to Mapa, to changes in deployment numbers and origin, as overseas workers seek work in greener pastures or in countries unaffected by recent economic crises. “This, coupled with the changes in the school year, may yield changes in the predictability and seasonality of foreign-exchange flows,” Mapa said. Despite this, Mapa still expressed confidence that the overseas Filipino workers’ remittances will still be able to push consumption, adding significantly to the country’s growth rate this year. “All in all, we can expect steady to marginal growth in remittance flows, given the POEA [Philippine Overseas Employment Administration] deployment and the zealous nature of workers abroad, enabling them to remit money to fund peso consumption,” Mapa said. “Peso growth year-to-date remains healthy at 7 percent, which should really allay fears that remittances will no longer be able to provide ample peso-purchasing power to drive the economy to growth of roughly 6.5 percent for the year,” he added.

BSP seen to stand pat on monetary policy

T

HE Bangko Sentral has no reason to change the current monetary policy in its meeting this coming week, as inflation remains low and as the central bank continues to mop up excess liquidity from the system through a new monetary-policy system in place. In his forecast for the September 22 monetary-policy meting, DBS Bank economist Gundy Cahyadi said the central bank is still seen to keep policy rates on hold in Thursday’s meeting. “No reason the BSP should act for now. On the inflation front, there is no pressure…. Not only has underlying demand remained strong, but price expectations also seem to have inched up in recent months alongside the rise in food prices,” Cahyadi said. “Still, it is also clear that the BSP would want to continue draining excess liquidity from the system,” he added. In the central bank’s August meeting, the Monetary Board decided to maintain the interest rate on the BSP’s overnight reverse repurchase facility at 3 percent. The corresponding interest rates on the overnight lending and deposit facilities were also kept steady, and the reserve

Cahyadi: “Not only has underlying demand remained strong, but price expectations also seem to have inched up in recent months alongside the rise in food prices.”

requirement ratios were, likewise, left unchanged. However, for next year, Cahyadi sees a different story. “Expect the monetary-policy bias to turn increasingly hawkish going into 2017, especially when we also expect the Fed to play catch-up in adjusting its rates,” Cahyadi said. “An upward adjustment in the policy rates may then follow. At this juncture, expect the BSP to raise its policy rates to 3.5 percent by mid-2017,” he added. The BSP’s September meeting is the sixth monetary policy meeting of the central bank for this year, after which the central bank’s seven-man monetary-policy deciding body will be meeting two more times, on November 10 and December 22. Bianca Cuaresma

n japan 0.4660 n UK 62.9792 n HK 6.1319 n CHINA 7.1216 n singapore 34.8966 n australia 35.7448 n EU 53.5031 n SAUDI arabia 12.6856

Source: BSP (16 September 2016 )


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