Covid seen in slowing PHL export growth By Cai U. Ordinario
Exports growth is the slowest since February 2021 when exports contracted 1.4 percent. The country’s export earnings this year peaked at 74.1 percent in April. “One reason could be the momentary closure of one of China’s major port because of Covid,” UnionBank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion told the BusinessMirror. “Countries around us were having challenges already because of [the] Delta variant.” Apart from the Delta variant, Asuncion said it is also possible that the chip shortage being experienced in the auto and electronic consumer goods also affected the country’s performance.
@caiordinario
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HE surge in Covid-19 cases in many of the country's trade partners and the ongoing container crisis may have caused the slowdown in the country’s export growth, according to local economists. On Thursday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that the country’s export growth slowed to 12.7 percent in July, the lowest in seven months. (See: https://businessmirror.com. ph/2021/09/09/phl-exports-grow12-7-in-july-in-3rd-consecutivemonth-performance-slowed/)
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PSA data showed that exports of automotive electronics contracted 52.7 percent in July 2021, the second lowest performance among commodity groups. The lowest was sugar which contracted 77.9 percent in July 2021. BPI Chief Economist Emilio S. Neri Jr. said the bottlenecks in the supply chain here and abroad may have also tempered export growth. He said these bottlenecks may have also caused the country's exporters to run short of raw materials, thereby cutting down their shipments to various parts of the world. “Materials will continue to
come in and will probably keep exports strong but flow may be intermittent even through mid-2022,” Neri told the BusinessMirror. Former Dean of the University of the Philippines School of Economics Ramon L. Clarete agreed, and said the demand for certain commodities may still be down given the current situation. He added that the recent growth of exports in the March -to-June period may have also been caused by low base effects, given that the government closed 70 percent of the economy last year to contain the spread of Covid-19. See “Covid,” A2
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Friday, September 10, 2021 Vol. 16 No. 331
TOP 10 RICHEST IN THE PHILIPPINES 2021 Manuel Villar
Sy siblings, Teresita (pictured), Elizabeth, Henry Jr., Hans, Herbert and Harley
Enrique Razon Jr.
1
Lance Jaime Zobel Dennis Gokongwei de Ayala Anthony & (pictured) Maria Grace and siblings, Uy Robina, Lisa, Faith, Hope and Marcia
2
3
4
$16.6 6.7 5.8 4
Tony Tan Caktiong
5
3.3
Andrew Tan
6
7
Ty siblings, Arthur (pictured), Alfred, Alesandra and Anjanette
Ramon Ang
8
9
10
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2
(in billion dollars)
SOURCE: FORBES.COM/PHILIPPINES
The 2021 rankings for Forbes’ 50 Richest List in the Philippines is out, with some old names slipping from the Top 10, but several young entrepreneurs making the cut. Individually, former Senate President Manny Villar remains as the country’s richest, though the Sy siblings as a group remain at the top of the Forbes Richest List. For full story, see “Companies,” page B1.
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By Bianca Cuaresma
@BcuaresmaBM
ESPITE the recently announced acceleration in the country’s inflation rate and the impending US monetary policy normalization, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno is keeping his resolve to maintain low interest rates for as long as possible to support economic recovery. See “Despite,” A2
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FACTORY OUTPUT POSTS 3-DIGIT GROWTH AGAIN
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HE country’s manufacturing output posted another three-digit growth, the fourth consecutive level of increase this year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). Based on the results of the Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI), the Volume of Production Index (VoPI) surged 537.9 percent in July 2021. This is the highest growth recorded for VoPI this year. The three-digit growth streak started in April with a growth of 156.2 percent, followed by 267.5 percent in May and 459 percent in June 2021. “Expansion in VoPI for the manufacturing sector in July 2021 was observed in 14 out of 22 industry divisions. The fastest-growth rate was reported in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products at 3,525.6 percent,” PSA said. A far second was the man-
ufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment which posted growth of 119.8 percent; followed by the manufacture of wood, bamboo, cane, rattan articles and related products which grew 57.4 percent. However, PSA said the remaining eight industry divisions recorded declines, with the manufacture of tobacco products registering the fastest annual decline of -55.8 percent.
Capacity utilization
Meanwhile, the country’s average capacity utilization dipped to 66.7 percent from 67.7 percent in the previous month, according to PSA data. The sector that posted the lowest average capacity utilization rate was the manufacture of leather and related products, including footwear at 31.8 percent. See “Factory,” A2
Human toll of purely online classes: ₧11T
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NLINE classes could result in production losses of P11 trillion over a 40-year period, according to estimates of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), which underscored the need to provide for a hybrid setup allowing face-to-face classes in less risky areas. In a Senate Finance Committee Hearing, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua
said the losses will be spread over four decades, which is the working lifespan of individuals. The estimate, Chua told the BusinessMirror, takes into account the low quality of education in the Philippines, which means that only 37 percent of the learning is absorbed via online classes. In the United States, 52 percent is retained by students through virtual classes.
“What we are seeing is that the lack of face-to-face [classes] will limit the learning ability of students and that has a permanent effect over the lifespan of the student while he is in the labor force. With the best data that we have, we have an estimate that productivity loss over the next 40 years is going to be around P11 trillion for the one year where we had no face-to-face schooling,” Chua said.
Preventing further production losses is one of the reasons for Neda’s support of piloting face-to-face classes. Chua said this has already been planned for February and then August but due to the surge in cases during these periods, the government had to postpone the move which is now slated for January 2022.
n japan 0.4547 n UK 69.0674 n HK 6.4474 n CHINA 7.7598 n singapore 37.2620 n australia 36.9302 n EU 59.2507 n SAUDI arabia 13.3678
See “Human,” A2
Source: BSP (September 9, 2021)