BusinessMirror September 04, 2021

Page 1

Why did this happen? Why did this happen?

Luzon power supply declined by 2000 MW,

resulting in rotating of Luzon power supplybrownouts: declined by 500 2000MW MW, the decline due brownouts: to limited Malampaya resulting inwas rotating 500 MW of Luzon power supply declined bybecause 2000 MW, gas MW was of the supply declineand was1500 due to limited Malampaya resulting in rotating brownouts: 500 MW of the unavailability of critical coal plants. gas supply and 1500 MW was because of the decline was duedid to limited Malampaya This unavailability not happen by the unavailability of critical coal plants. gas supply and 1500 MW was because of chance. Historical data show specific This unavailability did not happen by coal the unavailability of critical coal plants. plants experienced several outages chance. Historical data show specificofcoal This unavailability didseveral notpast happen by of varying length over the two years. plants experienced outages chance. Historical data show specific coal varying length over the past two years. plants experienced several outages of varying length over the past two years.

Mitsubishi Power claims Mindanao power outages are due to hydropower intermittency. Data show otherwise.

COAL PLANTS WITH DERATED* CAPACITY COAL PLANTS WITH DERATED* CAPACITY COAL PLANTS WITH DERATED* CAPACITY

MINDANAO BASELOAD REQUIREMENTS The figure shows the average 24-hour load profile in the Mindanao grid.

SLPGC Unit 1 SLPGC Unit 1

Ilijan Unit 1 Ilijan Unit 1

145MW out of 150MW Fullout rating 145MW of 150MW Full rating

SLPGC Unit 1

1323MW

1265MW

1295MW

IlijanT Unit 2 Ilijan Unit 2

358MW out of 600MW Full 358MW outrating of 600MW Full rating

358MW out of 600MW 358MWFull out of 600MW T rating Full rating

Ilijan Unit 1

358MW out of 600MW

Source: WESM Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories FullMarket rating Full rating

*lowered rated capability because of deterioration or inadequacy

Source: WESM Market Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories

2019

2020

489MW

Ilijan Unit 2

*lowered rated 358MW out capability of 600MW because of deterioration or inadequacy *lowered rated capability because of deterioration or inadequacy Full rating

Source: WESM Market Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories

145MW out of 150MW

TOTAL UNUSED TOTAL UNUSED CAPACITY CAPACITY 489MW TOTAL UNUSED 489MW CAPACITY

T

COAL ON SHUTDOWN SHUTDOWN COAL PLANTS PLANTS ON

2021

COAL PLANTS ON SHUTDOWN

The baseload plant requirement in Mindanao is no more than 1350MW. Baseload is the minimum amount of power required to be supplied 24/7.

GNPower GNPower Unit Unit22 GNPower Unit Unit 11 GNPower Currently in shutdown Forced outage for a few Currently in shutdown Forced outage for a few hours since 01/08/2021 on 06/01/2021 since 01/08/2021 hours on 06/01/2021 GNPower Unit 1 GNPower Unit 2 17 outages outages of ofvarying varying 1717outages outages in in 2.3 2.3 years years 17 lengths 8 years operational in 2.3 years  in shutdown for a few 8 years operational lengthsoutage in 2.3 years Currently Forced 8 years years operational 8 operational since 01/08/2021 on 06/01/2021 hours 17 outages in 2.3 years 17 outages of varying   lengths in 2.3 years 8 years operational 8 years operational

MINDANAO HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS

BusinessMirror The figure shows the average 24-hour load profile in the Mindanao grid.

ROTARY CLUB OF MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDS

2006 National Newspaper of the Year 2011 National Newspaper of the Year 2013 Business Newspaper of the Year 2017 Business Newspaper of the Year 2019 Business Newspaper of the Year



SualUnit Unit22 Sual

Agus2-1

8-month shutdown 8-month shutdown from 09/16/2020 to from 09/16/2020 to 05/11/2021 05/11/2021 17-dayshutdown shutdownfrom from 8-month shutdown 17-day 05/16/2021 05/16/2021 toto to from 09/16/2020 06/02/2021 06/02/2021 05/11/2021 14outages outages 2.3 years 14 inin2.3 years 17-day shutdown from 21years yearsoperational operational 21 05/16/2021 to



Sual Unit 2

 

TOTAL UNUSED TOTAL UNUSED EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS

 

TOTAL UNUSED 2018 BANTOG MEDIA AWARDS

06/02/2021 14 outages in 2.3 years 21 years operational

Source: WESM SO SO Advisories Advisories Source:WESM WESMMarket MarketPrices Prices and and Schedules; Schedules; WESM

CalacaUnit Unit2 2 Calaca Currently in shutdown in shutdown Currently since 12/3/2020 since 12/3/2020 Calaca Unit 2years outages 2525 outages in in 2.32.3 years  36 years operational  in shutdown 36 years operational Currently since 12/3/2020 25 outages in 2.3 years  36 years operational

BUSINESS NEWS SOURCE OF THE YEAR CAPACITY (2017, 2018,CAPACITY 2019)

~1500MW ~1500MW

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

CAPACITY PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY DATA CHAMPION

~1500MW

Source: WESM Market Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories

A broader look at today’s business

TIMELINE OF SHUTDOWNS SHUTDOWNS

Agus2-2

www.businessmirror.com.ph

n

Saturday, September 4, 2021 Vol. 16 No. 325

P25.00 nationwide | 14 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK TIMELINE OF SHUTDOWNS May May 22

GNPowerUnit Unit11 GNPower

May May99

May May16 16

May 2323 May

May 3030 May

June 6 6 June

June 13 13 June

Who is profiting from the power outages? Hydroelectric plants plants in in Mindanao Mindanao are are NOT NOT intermittent. intermittent. Hydroelectric It provides flexible generation. They provide flexible generation. Flexible generation is the ability of a plant to ramp up and down to support system requirements.

on shutdown shutdown since since 01/08/2021 on 01/08/2021

May 2

on planned shutdown on planned shutdown since 03/20/2020 since 03/20/2020

GNPower PowerUnit Unit22 GN GNPower Unit 1

May 9

P

OWER outages are back with a vengeance. Those of us in Luzon remember the rotating brownouts from May 31 to June 1. More recently, there was a blackout that affected the whole of Eastern Visayas, Bohol, Cebu and Negros on August 20. Department of Energy (DOE) Visayas Field Office Director Russ Mark Gamallo told The Freeman that the transmission line of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) that runs from Quiot, Pardo, in Cebu City to Colon, Naga, tripped late that Friday night and caused a blackout in areas covered by the CebuLeyte-Samar-Bohol portion of the Visayas grid which started at 11:56 pm. The Negros and Panay

portions of the grid were spared. Mindanao has not been spared from the power outages if we are to believe Mitsubishi Power Asia Pacific’s news headline from its webpage: “Mitsubishi Power Secures Three-Year Agreement to Maintain Boilers Crucial for Reliable Energy Access in Mindanao.” Mitsubishi Power stated, “Therma South Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of AboitizPower and supplements power generation required to

Mitsubishi Power claims Mindanao power outages are due to hydropower intermittency. Data show otherwise.

May 30

start-up on 06/02/2021 start-up on 06/02/2021 on shutdown since 06/01/2021

on shutdown since 05/16/2021 start-up on 05/10/2021 on shutdown since 05/16/2021

onon planned shutdown shutdown since 09/16/2020 on shutdown since 09/16/2020 since 03/20/2020

start-up on 5/12/2021 start-up on5/7/2021 5/12/2021 start-up on 05/6/2021 on shutdown since

CalacaUnit Unit 2 Calaca Sual Unit 22

on shutdown since 12/03/2020 shutdown since 12/03/2020 ononshutdown since 09/16/2020

Calaca Unit 2

start-up on 06/02/2021

on shutdown since 05/16/2021

start-up on 5/12/2021

on shutdown since 12/03/2020

Why do do power power rates Why rates soar during outages soar do during outages Why power rates and shutdowns? and shutdowns? soar during outages and shutdowns?

A closer look at PH Power Crisis

Source: WESM Market Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories

Power Outages and Rates in Luzon, from May to June 2021

Why did this happen?

The graph below shows electricity price The graph below shows electricity price doubled when the Sual power plant (the largest doubled when in thethe Sual power plant (the largest power station Luzon grid) experienced an

Luzon power supply declined by 2000 MW, resulting in rotating brownouts: 500 MW of the decline was due to limited Malampaya gas supply and 1500 MW was because of the unavailability of critical coal plants. This unavailability did not happen by chance. Historical data show specific coal plants experienced several outages of varying length over the past two years.

power station in shows the Luzon experienced The graph below price unplanned shutdown inelectricity thegrid) summer of 2021. an unplanned shutdown the summer of largest 2021. doubled when the Sualin power plant Due to the deficiency of Sual, other(the more Due tostation the deficiency of were Sual, other more power in theplants Luzon grid)needed experienced an expensive power to meet expensive power were needed meet unplanned shutdown intime. the summer of to 2021. power demand inplants real power demand in real Due to the deficiency oftime. Sual, other more expensive power plants were May needed to meet 2 May 9 power demand in real time. May 2 May 9

Sual Unit 2 Sual Unit 2

SLPGC Unit 1

Ilijan Unit 1

Ilijan Unit 2

145MW out of 150MW Full rating

358MW out of 600MW Full rating

358MW out of 600MW Full rating

TOTAL UNUSED CAPACITY

489MW

on shutdown since 09/16/2020

Cost (PHP/kWh) Cost (PHP/kWh) Cost Source: WESM Final GWAP (PHP/kWh)

PHP7.83 PHP7.83

PHP7.83

May 16

May 23

May 30

May 23

start-up on on shutdown since 05/16/2021 05/12/2021 start-up on May 16 on shutdown May since 23 05/16/2021 May 30 05/12/2021

start-up on 05/12/2021

PHP3.66

PHP3.66

June 6

May 30

on shutdown since 05/16/2021

June 13

June 6

June 13

start-up on 06/02/2021

June 6 June 13 start-up on 06/02/2021

start-up on 06/02/2021

PHP8.60 PHP8.60

PHP4.25

PHP4.25

PHP8.60

PHP4.25

PHP3.66

Source: WESM Final GWAP

Source: WESM Final GWAP

GENERATOR WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (GWAP) GENERATOR WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (GWAP) GENERATOR WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (GWAP)

*lowered rated capability because of deterioration or inadequacy

Source: WESM Market Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories

May 2 09/16/2020 May 9 on shutdown since

Sual Unit 2

COAL PLANTS WITH DERATED* CAPACITY

T

on shutdown since 09/16/2020

May 16

COAL PLANTS ON SHUTDOWN Type something

Type something

Type something

GNPower Unit 1 Currently in shutdown since 01/08/2021 17 outages in 2.3 years 8 years operational

GNPower Unit 2 Forced outage for a few hours on 06/01/2021 17 outages of varying lengths in 2.3 years 8 years operational

Sual Unit 2 8-month shutdown

from 09/16/2020 to 05/11/2021 17-day shutdown from 05/16/2021 to 06/02/2021 14 outages in 2.3 years 21 years operational

  

The figure shows the average 24-hour load profile in the Mindanao grid.

Feb 2021

Mar 2021

Apr 2021

Calaca Unit 2

PHP2.68/kWh

PHP2.18/kWh

PHP3.98/kWh

PHP4.42/kWh

Currently in shutdown since 12/3/2020 25 outages in 2.3 years 36 years operational

PHP2.68/kWh

PHP2.18/kWh

PHP3.98/kWh

TOTAL UNUSED CAPACITY

~1500MW

Source: WESM Market Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories

Type something

Jan 2021

Type something

MINDANAO BASELOAD REQUIREMENTS

June 6 June 13 onon shutdown since 06/01/2021 shutdown since 06/01/2021

on shutdown since 01/08/2021 start-up on 05/6/2021 on shutdown since 5/7/2021 start-up on 05/6/2021 on shutdown since 5/7/2021

SualUnit Unit222 Sual Unit GN Power

Source: WESM Market Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories Source: WESM Market Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories

By Alberto Dalusung III & Jephraim Manansala

May 16 May 23 start-up start-upon on05/10/2021 05/10/2021

Jan 2021

Jan 2021

Feb 2021

Feb 2021

Mar 2021

Mar 2021

Apr 2021

PHP4.42/kWh Apr 2021

May 2021

Jun 2021

PHP7.81/kWh

PHP5.63/kWh

Type something May 2021

Jun 2021

PHP7.81/kWh

PHP5.63/kWh

May 2021

Jun 2021

PHP2.68/kWh PHP2.18/kWh PHP3.98/kWh PHP4.42/kWh PHP7.81/kWh May 31- June PHP5.63/kWh 1, 2021 The Secondary Price Cap Mechanism by the ERC (9000 level, indicated by the dashed line) PHP9.64/kWh was triggered multiple times – indicating an abnormally high pricing in the power market. May 31- June 1, 2021 GWAP during Summer 2021 is significantly than previous GWAP by the dashed line) The Secondary Price Cap Mechanism by thehigher ERC (9000 level, indicated GWAP during multiple the May 31June 1 outage isansignificantly than previous GWAP market. MayPHP9.64/kWh was triggered times – indicating abnormallyhigher high pricing in the power 31- June 1, 2021 The Secondary Price Cap2021 Mechanism by the ERC (9000 level, indicated by the dashed line) GWAP during Summer is significantly higher than previous GWAP Source: WESM Final GWAP PHP9.64/kWh was triggered multiple times – indicating an abnormally high pricing in the power market. GWAP during the May 31- June 1 outage is significantly higher than previous GWAP GWAP during Summer 2021 is significantly higher than previous GWAP Source: WESM Final GWAP Datasets GWAPused: during the May 31- June 1 outage is significantly higher than previous GWAP

     

WESM Market Prices & Schedule; WESM Market Bids and Offers; WESM Final GWAP;

Source: WESM Final GWAP WESM System Operator Advisories; DOE List of Existing Power Plants

1323MW

TIMELINE OF SHUTDOWNS

1265MW

1295MW

May 2

2019

2020

2021

The baseload plant requirement in Mindanao is no more than 1350MW. Baseload is the minimum amount of power required to be supplied 24/7.

Datasets used: WESM Market Prices & Schedule; WESM Market Bids and Offers; WESM Final GWAP; Photos by Fré Sonneveld/Unsplash; Alexander Schimmeck /Unsplash WESM System Datasets used: Operator Advisories; DOE List of Existing Power Plants

GNPower Unit 1

on shutdown since 01/08/2021

GN Power Unit 2

on planned shutdown since 03/20/2020

May 9

May 16

May 23

icsc.ngo

WESM Market Prices & Schedule; WESM Market Bids and Offers; WESM Final GWAP; WESM System Advisories; DOE List of Existing Power Plants Photos by FréOperator Sonneveld/Unsplash; Alexander Schimmeck /Unsplash May 30

start-up on 05/10/2021

June 6

June 13

icsc.ngo

Photos by Fré Sonneveld/Unsplash; Alexander Schimmeck /Unsplash

icsc.ngo

on shutdown since 06/01/2021

start-up on 05/6/2021 on shutdown since 5/7/2021

Sual Unit 2

on shutdown since 05/16/2021

on shutdown since 09/16/2020

start-up on 06/02/2021

start-up on 5/12/2021

Calaca Unit 2

on shutdown since 12/03/2020

Source: WESM Market Prices and Schedules; WESM SO Advisories

MINDANAO HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS The figure shows the average 24-hour load profile in the Mindanao grid.

Agus2-1

Agus2-2

Hydroelectric plants plants in in Mindanao Mindanao are are NOT NOT intermittent. intermittent. Hydroelectric It provides They provideflexible flexiblegeneration. generation. Flexible generation is the ability of a plant to ramp up and down to support system requirements.

A closer look at PH Power Crisis

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 50.0120 Why did this happen? Power Outages and Rates in Luzon, from May to June 2021

Why do power rates soar during outages and shutdowns?

meet the region’s baseload requirements to reduce the frequency and duration of power shortages in Mindanao, due to hydropower intermittency.” On the company’s The graph below shows electricity price LinkedIn page, Mitsubishi repeated doubled when the Sual power plant (the largest the strange claim, but with a broadpower station in the Luzon grid) experienced an er brush: “Mindanao, Philippines unplanned shutdown in the summer of 2021. has Due experienced power shortages to the deficiency of Sual, other more due expensive to thepower intermittency replants were needed toof meet power demand in real time. newable energy.” Unfortunately, Mitsubishi May 2 May 9 made two crucial errors in its May 16 statement. First, Mindanao has Sual Unit 2enough baseload capacmore than ity because its requirement is no more than 1,350 megawatts (MW), while coal dependable capacity in Cost Mindanao alone is PHP7.83 2,041 MW, ac(PHP/kWh) PHP3.66 cording to DOE data. Geothermal on shutdown since 09/16/2020

start-up on 05/12/2021

will add another 104 MW to Mindanao’s baseload capacity. Moreover, a quick look at the June to August 2021 hydropower operations in Mindanao does not show the intermittency claimed by Mitsubishi. Hydropower is known to be seasonal—but not intermittent.

The Oxford dictionary defines “intermittent” as “stopping and starting often over a period of time, but not regularly.” The Mitsubishi May 23 May 30 June 6 June 13 webpage report attributes intermittency to renewable energy, specifically to hydropower. However, hydropower is not intended to be a source of base­load power. It is incorrect to claim it is the cause of power outPHP8.60 ages experienced today in Mindanao.

on shutdown since 05/16/2021

start-up on 06/02/2021

NOTICE OF FILING OF APPLICATION/S FOR ALIEN EMPLOYMENT PERMIT/S (AEP/S) Notice is hereby given that the following companies/Employers have filed with this Regional Office application/s for Alien Employment Permit/s: ESTABLISHMENT / ADDRESS No.

NAME OF FOREIGN NATIONAL , POSITION AND BRIEF DESCRIPTION

QUALIFICATION AND SALARY RANGE

24 INCH GAUGE CONSTRUCTION INC. L4 Blk. 4 Near Kay Buboy Bridge San Dionisio Parañaque City

WANG, XIAOSHUANG Marketing Specialist

1.

Brief Job Description: Responsible for coordinating with other marketing and sales professionals to implement innovative campaigns for branding or product launches

Basic Qualification: Ability to work under pressure and motivation to succeed in a competitive environment; Should have a bachelor’s degree in journalism, marketing, communications or a related field; Good communication and interpersonal skills Salary Range: Php 30,000 - Php 59,999

See “dole ncr” on A5-A7

PHP4.25

Continued on A2

Source: WESM Final GWAP

n JAPAN 0.4550 n UK 69.2016 n HK 6.4355 n CHINA 7.7465 n SINGAPORE 37.2584 n AUSTRALIA 37.0139 n EU 59.3893 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.3362

GENERATOR WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (GWAP)

Source: BSP (September 3, 2021)


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