Weak dollar to boost PHL, other EMs–Moody’s
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HE Philippines will stand to benefit from a potentially prolonged dollar weakness, as it will translate to lower peso values of its foreign currency liabilities, Moody’s Investor Service said in a recent assessment. “Some market experts have suggested that a period of prolonged dollar weakness could be on the horizon. While this would weigh on the profitability of some companies with significant US dollar revenues, it would lower debt-servicing costs for Asian issuers,” Moody’s said. “On the sovereign side, those with large foreign-currency liabilities—e.g., Sri Lanka, Indonesia and the Philippines whose foreign currency debt accounts for more than a third of total debt—could potentially reap savings from the weaker dollar,” it added. The local currency has been enjoying its strength against the dollar in recent months. In September, the peso appreci-
WOODWORKING apprentice William Suarez, 22, arranges religious wooden sculptures at an antiques and furniture store on Lilac Street in Marikina City. Suarez, who was studying to be an architect before the pandemic, decided to forgo online classes because of limited learning, according to him. He is hoping his newfound woodworking skills could be put to good use when he pursues his architecture studies in the future. BERNARD TESTA
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ated by 0.7 percent to average P48.51 to a dollar, from averaging at P48.84 to a dollar in August. The volatility measures also eased to 7.6 percent in September from 22.5 percent as it traded narrowly between P48.37 to a dollar and P48.63 to a dollar during the period. Latest data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP) showed the peso traded at P48.395 to a dollar on Monday. For comparison, on October 25 of last year, the peso closed trade at P51.135 to a dollar, appreciating from P51.24 to a dollar from its previous trade day. The total volume was at $1.396 billion. This is about P2.75 added in peso value to the dollar in a year’s time. Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Senior Economist Christiaan Tuntono echoed this view, adding that a weak dollar may also drive positive sentiment to emerging market economies such as
the Philippines. “A weaker US dollar would reflect the relative outperformance of emerging markets [EMs] compared with developed markets; this outperformance could also be the result of stronger global trade. We anticipate that the weakening of the US dollar is likely to coincide with the world economy gradually stepping out from the impact of Covid-19, and global trade recovering from its current state,” Tuntono said. Moody’s, however, stressed that even in the event of prolonged weakness in the US dollar, its status as a global reserve and transaction currency is secure for now. “As the durability of rival platforms and international financial arrangements remains uncertain, the pace of transition out of the dollar will likely be gradual and unlikely to dampen its dominance,” Tuntono said. Bianca Cuaresma
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9-MO BOP SURPLUS HITS $6.878B AMID PANDEMIC www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Tuesday, October 27, 2020 Vol. 16 No. 19
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FISHERMAN Jun Pagal moors his boat to safety in Cavite as the weather bureau enforces a no-sail restriction due to very rough seas brought by fast-moving Typhoon Quinta. Signal No. 3 was raised in various Luzon areas and classes were suspended in Metro Manila. NONIE REYES
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By Bianca Cuaresma
HE country’s transactions with the rest of the world in the first nine months of 2020 surpassed last year’s dollar surplus despite the economic disruptions brought by the global pandemic.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported on Monday that the Philippines’s balance of payments (BOP)—or the summary of the country’s overall transactions with the rest of the world—yielded a $6.878-billion surplus as of endSeptember this year. The BOP is usually considered as an important economic indicator in an economy as it shows the level of earnings or expenses of the Phil-
ippines with its transactions with the world. A surplus means that the country made more dollar earnings than its expenses during the period. The $6.878-billion BOP surplus came as the country clocked in a $2.104-billion surplus in September alone. This is the second largest monthly BOP surplus for the country this year, next to May’s $2.431 billion. See “BOP,” A2
DA firm on poultry ban as Brazil goes to WTO
By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
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ANILA is standing its ground and is keeping the ban on Brazilian poultry products, except mechanically deboned meat (MDM), until it is satisfied with how Brasilia curbed the Covid-19 outbreaks in its meat-exporting plants. In a statement on Monday, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said it welcomes the action of the Government of Brazil to raise a dispute case against the Philippines at the World Trade Organization
(WTO) for maintaining the import ban, which it called an “unjustified and undue barrier.” Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said the Brazilian government has yet to comply with all the documents that the Department of Agriculture (DA) is requiring regarding the Covid-19 infections in Brazil’s Philippine-accredited foreign meat establishments (FMEs). “Although we have maintained an open communication line with our Brazilian counterparts, the Department of Agriculture welcomes the initiative of Brazil to elevate
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 48.5870
the matter to the WTO,” Dar said. “We have not yet lifted the ban on poultry, especially whole chicken, as the Brazilian government has yet to furnish the Philippines a report on the rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection in their respective foreign meat establishments, where our imports are sourced,” he added. The DA said the additional reports that Brazil has yet to submit are part of the protocols of Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) that will be used for a “more in-depth risk analysis of the situation.” “It is within the scope of the
importing country to preemptively ban FMEs with apparent biosafety lapses until such time that the Philippines is satisfied with evidence of compliance and/or commitment by the FME concerned,” Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) Director Ronnie D. Domingo said. Domingo, who is the country’s Chief Veterinary Officer, added that the Philippine government has been prompt in responding to the issue, citing Manila’s partial lifting of the ban on Brazilian poultry MDM after it received “partial
PHL, S.E.A. NEIGHBORS MUST SHUN MID-INCOME TRAP—EU-ASEAN POLL By Elijah Felice Rosales
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WO in every five European investors in Southeast Asia have warned that economies, including the Philippines, may find themselves caught in the middle-income trap due to a lack of cooperation among governments in the region. In a survey, the EU-Asean Business Council reported 60 percent of European firms said they are confident Southeast Asian nations can move past their middle-income status. However, 40 percent admitted they are uncertain about the prospect of climbing to upper income. The World Bank classifies all Southeast Asian countries except Brunei Darussalam and Singapore as middle-income economies. Based on the World Bank’s classification, high-income economies keep a GNI per capita higher than $12,535. On the other hand, upper middle-income economies range between $4,046 and $12,535, while lower middle-income economies post between $1,036 and $4,045. An economy sinks in the middle-income trap when it develops beyond its low-cost competitive advantage, but fails to produce goods and services with added value required to compete with its upper-income counterparts. See “EU-Asean,” A2
Continued on A2
n JAPAN 0.46425 n UK 63.4206 n HK 6.2697 n CHINA 7.2665 n SINGAPORE 35.7889 n AUSTRALIA 34.6571 n EU 57.6242 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.9562
Source: BSP (October 26, 2020)