BusinessMirror October 20, 2020

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Peso’s winning streak may taper after October By Bianca Cuaresma

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HE local currency has reached its third consecutive month of appreciation in September amid turbulent economic waters, but local analysts from First Metro Investment Corporation (FMIC) and University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said this strength may begin to taper after October as the economy gradually returns to normal. In the latest issue of The Market Call, economists at FMIC and UA&P said the peso appreciated further by 0.7 percent to average P48.51 to a dollar in September from averaging at P48.84 to a dollar in August. The volatility measures also eased to 7.6 percent in September from 22.5 percent as it traded narrowly be-

A VENDOR waits inside Farmview market in Bulacan for the local curfew to end before proceeding to his business. Metro Manila (with the exception of Navotas City) will shorten curfew hours to 12 a.m. to 4 a.m., instead of the current 10 p.m. to 5 a.m., as part of the government’s move to ease restrictions amid the pandemic in order to revive the economy. Story on A2. NONIE REYES

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tween P48.37 to a dollar and P48.63 to a dollar during the period. Economists attributed the positive sentiment on the local currency to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) announcement that it was able to increase the country’s Gross International Reserve (GIR) levels to a record high amid the pandemic. Just last week, BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno announced that the September 2020 dollar reserves hit $100.5 billion. This is equivalent to 10 months of imports of goods and payment of services and income. It is also about 9.2 times the country’s short-term debt based on original maturity. Latest data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP) also

showed that the peso continued to appreciate against the dollar in the first few days of the month. It was at its strongest at P48.305 to a dollar on October 9 versus its P48.49 to a dollar at end-September. However, FMIC and UA&P economists said that while the strong GIR impressed financial markets, the peso may begin to trade sideways as a clearer and more solid economic recovery gains traction. “By October, the peso may see its peak. A stronger economic recovery will likely put it back to a mild depreciation mode,” the report read. On Monday, the peso opened the week with at a close value of P48.6 to a dollar, data from the BAP showed. See “Peso,” A2

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business

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MILDER GDP FALL SEEN AS QUARANTINES EASE www.businessmirror.com.ph

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Tuesday, October 20, 2020 Vol. 16 No. 12

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COMMUTERS go through health and security checks, before boarding and while on trains, as the government eases travel restrictions, increasing maximum passenger capacities of the MRT, LRT and PNR to 30 percent. These will then be gradually expanded up to 50 percent. ROY DOMINGO

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By Cai U. Ordinario

HE Philippine economy may have posted a single-digit contraction in the third quarter of the year on the back of the easing of quarantine restrictions, according to a local think tank. In its latest Market Call report, First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC)-University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) Capital Markets Research said the July to September period likely saw the economy contract no more than 5 percent. The improved economic performance in the third quarter, the

think tank said, has been seen in the muted inflation; increased government spending; and the growth of construction, manufacturing and mining. “A sprinkling of positive news and less negative economic data suggests that the economy is well past the bottom and is slowly gath-

ering momentum,” FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research said. “All these make us believe that the Q3 [third quarter] GDP fall will prove much milder than the deep dive in Q2 [second quarter].” The think tank said the easing of restrictions on firms and public transportation in mid-September could lead to better growth until the fourth quarter. The passage of the Bayanihan 2 Act, which allocates an additional P165.5 billion to finance several government programs, would lead the national government to post double-digit growth, it added. FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research said the additional budget will finance “cash-for-work program, agriculture support, assistance to industries” and the procurement of vaccines which will ensure the country’s recovery from

the pandemic. The think tank also expects inflation to stay muted at around 2.4 percent. Inflation may be below 2 percent at the start of 2021.

Layoffs imperil remittances

MEANWHILE, the think tank said remittances could maintain its growth in the past two months, but this is being threatened by layoffs abroad. The peso appreciation at a year-on-year growth of 6.3 percent brought down the peso equivalent of remittances by 10.1 percent in August. “We previously expected the upcoming Christmas holidays to maintain the growth in remittances over the last two months [but] job market challenges and layoffs See “GDP,” A2

Experts: Study well curbs on rice importation

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ROPOSALS to limit rice imports to stabilize farmgate price, especially during harvest, require careful study, according to economists. Economists said proposals such as barring rice cooperatives from importing the commodity, as well as banning importation of commodities during their main harvest, could affect the rice market and eventually hurt consumers. Last week, the Department of Agriculture proposed to bar cooperatives from importing rice while

on Monday, senators suggested disallowing importation during the main harvest of commodities. “These proposed policies are going to hurt the consumers. While producers are supposedly supported by imposing these restrictions, these can in the long run cause inefficiencies in the market. The goal should be to make producers competitive without causing a burden to the consumers,” Ateneo Eagle Watch Senior Fellow Leonardo A. Lanzona Jr. told the BusinessMirror. With the passage of the Rice

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 48.6340

Trade Liberalization (RTL) Law, any entity with proper papers can import rice, Philippine Institute of Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow Roehlano M. Briones pointed out. Briones added that implementing seasonal import bans does not really work given that “someone can pre-purchase rice during open season.”

Non-tariff barrier

MOREOVER, barring cooperatives from importing could be a form of non-tariff barrier (NTB),

said Briones. Former University of the Philippines School of Economics Dean Ramon L. Clarete explained that there is a difference between NTBs and Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs). “You distinguish between NTMs and NTBs. Former may be allowed like SPS [Sanitary Phytosanitary] or TBT [Technical Barriers to Trade]. Generally NTMs have valid reasons for using them. But NTBs may just be disguised protection. They appear to be NTMs but without valid reason for using

P20-B AMENDMENTS IN BUDGET WORKED IN BY HOUSE PANEL By Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz

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HE House of Representatives on Monday introduced a total of P20 billion in “institutional amendments” to the P4.5trillion General Appropriations Bill to increase funding for Covid-19 vaccine, displaced workers and Internet connection for public schools. House Committee on Appropriations Senior Vice Chairman Joey Sarte Salceda, in a news conference, said the small committee meeting, tasked to thresh out all the amendments to the proposed national budget, finished deliberating on all the amendments in one hearing on Monday, October 19. With this, Salceda said the probability of a budget reenactment is now “zero.” “The House version of the 2021 budget is now ready for submission to the Senate as the small group had the consensus.... We only considered institutional amendments and departmental errata. All individual amendments [will be tackled] during the bicameral conference committee meeting with the Senate,” Salceda added. “[These institutional amendments will] empower the government to confront socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic and restore the Philippines as a nation state to its trajectory of growth, maintain macroeconomic stability and make growth gains sustainable,” he added. According to Salceda, the P20 billion will be taken from the unprogrammed funds of the Department of Transportation. Of the P20 billion, Salceda said P5.5 billion will be allocated for the procurement of Covid-19 vaccine, P300 million to implement the mental health program and P2 billion for the Health Facilities Enhancement Program. Salceda said the institutional amendments also include P4 billion for the Tulong Panghanap Buhay sa Ating Disadvantaged/ See “Budget,” A2

Continued on A2

n JAPAN 0.4615 n UK 62.7914 n HK 6.2753 n CHINA 7.2599 n SINGAPORE 35.8156 n AUSTRALIA 34.4037 n EU 57.0039 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.9660

Source: BSP (October 19, 2020)


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