Fitch Solutions sees lower inflation forecast By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad
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@Tyronepiad
ITH stable inflation and strong peso, Fitch Solutions is expecting lower average consumer prices this year, revising its outlook for the Philippines. In a commentary on Monday, the London-based think tank said that headline inflation is seen averaging at 2.5 percent this year, lower than the previous forecast of 2.7 percent. For 2021, it is maintaining its 3-percent inflation forecast. “The downside surprise to headline inflation in August and continued strength of the peso has led us to lower our outlook
SENATOR Sherwin Gatchalian, chairman of the Committee on Basic Education, Arts and Culture, and Dr. Meliton Zurbano, Valenzuela Schools Division Superintendent, inspect the rollout of distance learning at the Valenzuela City School of Mathematics and Science on Monday. Among others, the city is rolling out the Valenzuela Live Online Streaming school, which utilizes Facebook Live to stream classes. ROY DOMINGO
for inflation in 2020,” the Fitch unit said. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) recently reported that inflation decelerated to 2.4 percent in August from 2.7 percent a month earlier, bringing the year-to-date figure to 2.5 percent. The drop in inflation was attributed to lower prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages. Meanwhile, the peso—which has been trading above P48 level recently—is being recognized as the strongest currency in the region now. Like the think tank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) earlier revised downwards its inflation outlook for the country. The Central Bank now sees inflation settling at 2.3 percent this year from 2.6
percent. Next year, inflation is expected to average at 2.8 percent from the previous forecast of 3 percent. Amid a lower inflation forecast, the Fitch unit noted that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index recently rising to 50.1 in September is a sign that domestic activity is on its path to recovery. Google mobility data, however, shows that retail and recreation; and grocery and pharmacy activities are still below regular levels. “As such, we believe demand-side inflationary pressures will remain subdued such that inflation averages lower,” it explained. Continued on A2
9-MO REVENUE OF BOC, BIR DOWN 12% TO P1.8T
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Tuesday, October 6, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 362
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages |
‘HUGE DIGITAL DIVIDE BLUNTS PHL’S GAINS FROM TECHNOLOGY’ By Cai U. Ordinario @caiordinario
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TEACHERS of Parañaque Elementary School Unit II are busy on the opening day of classes in the unprecedented pandemic-impacted school year on Monday. The Department of Education listed 24.7 million students enrolled, only 89 percent of the previous school year. Around 398,000 students from private schools transferred to public schools amid the pandemic. Due to the Covid-19 threat, classes resumed through blended learning, where students do not have to go to school to avoid possible transmission of the virus. NONIE REYES
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By Bernadette D. Nicolas
@BNicolasBM
HE revenue take by the government’s main collection agencies from January to September this year is still down by 12.13 percent to P1.82 trillion from P2.073 trillion a year ago, as the pandemicinduced lockdown forced the economy into a standstill.
This, despite both Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and Bureau of Customs (BOC) exceeding their combined collection target of P1.683 trillion for the ninemonth period this year by 8.26 percent. According to the preliminary data shared by Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III with finance reporters on Monday, BIR and BOC still fell short of their revenue collection last year. In a span of nine months this
year, BIR collected P1.424 trillion, an 11.16-percent drop from P1.603 trillion in the same period in 2019. However, BIR breached its P1.31trillion revised target for the period by 8.67 percent. On the other hand, BOC’s tax haul for January to September slid by 15.43 percent to P397.51 billion this year from last year’s P470.05 billion, although this is up by 6.81 percent versus its P372.16-billion revised target. Continued on A2
PHL hosting Asean insurance meetings, online
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HE Philippines is hosting the 23rd Asean Insurance Regulators’ Meeting (AIRM) and the 46th Asean Insurance Council (AIC) Meetings, which for the first time in history, will push through online. The discussions will zero in on the challenges being faced by the industry especially in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic. The meetings were originally scheduled this month in Mactan,
Cebu. At an online press conference held via Zoom on Monday, AIRM Chairman and Insurance Commissioner Dennis B. Funa announced that the AIRM is set to meet online on October 27. Meanwhile, the Joint Plenary Meeting with the AIC is slated on October 28. “The Philippines’ hosting of the AIRM and the AIC Meetings this year highlights our collective abil-
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 48.4630
ity to adapt and transcend difficulties, particularly the threat brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic. It conveys a message of hope and recovery to all,” Funa said. For his part, AIC Chairman Nopadol Santipakorn from Thailand expects the online meetings to promote networking and collaboration among the regulators and industry leaders and strengthen the spirit of cooperation within the regional bloc.
“I look forward to seeing our fruitful discussion and proposition to build an agile and resilient economy in moving the next wave of our insurance industry,” he said. AIC Secretary-General Evelina Pietruschka said the industry feels the AIC meeting “is one of the valuable platforms to exchange key development relating to Covid-19 among the members.”
HE gaping digital divide in the Philippines is preventing more Filipinos from harnessing the benefits of digital technologies, according to a report by the World Bank and the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda). The report, titled “A Better Normal Under Covid-19: Digitalizing the Philippine Economy Now,” said around 60 percent of Filipino households do not have access to the Internet. This, despite findings by We Are Social that Filipinos spend 10 hours online daily. World Bank Economist Kevin Chua, the lead author of the report, said in a briefing on Monday that most Filipinos rely on mobile data to connect to the worldwide web. Part of the reason is that digital connection in the Philippines is expensive, slow, and has a low broadband penetration rate. “Internet connectivity—the foundation of the digital economy—is limited in rural areas, and where they are available, services are relatively expensive and of weak quality,” said Ndiame Diop, World Bank country director for Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. “Upgrading digital infrastructure all over the country will introduce fundamental changes that can improve social service delivery, enhance resilience against shocks, and create more economic opportunities for all Filipinos,” he said. Where Internet services are available, Filipino consumers experience slow download speeds. At 16.76 megabytes per second, the Philippines’s mobile broadband speed is much lower than the global average of 32.01 Mbps. In the region, the report said 3G/4G mobile average download speed stands at 13.26 Mbps compared to only seven Mbps in the Philippines. Chua said the most commonly used in the country is 3G, which is the lower version of Internet connection. The World Bank also noted
that efforts to enhance digital infrastructure in the Philippines are hindered by a lack of competition, as well as restrictions on investment in the telecommunications markets. These restrictions include the public utility designation of telecommunications, which limits foreign ownership and places a cap on the rate of return. “In this society-wide digital transformation, the government can take the lead by speeding up e-governance projects, such as the foundational identification system and the digitization of its processes and procedures, which will help promote greater inclusion, improve efficiency, and enhance security,” said Chua. “Moreover, the government can take an active role in fostering policies that reduce the digital divide and create a more conducive business environment for the digital economy to flourish.”
Force the hand
UNIONBANK Vice Chairman Justo Antonio Ortiz, who was a member of the panel in a briefing on Monday, said the government can hasten digital technologies by issuing an Executive Order that can end the use of cash payments at a certain time. Ortiz said such an abrupt change in making payments could force the hand of businesses to change their business models; the government to innovate their processes; and for Filipinos to become more acquainted with the digital economy. He said the ongoing pandemic has done exactly this for e-commerce. Ortiz said when the pandemic hit, thousands of small businesses turned to the digital world to continue operating while others became digital entrepreneurs overnight. Data shared by the Department of Trade and Industry supported this. DTI Assistant Secretary Mary Jean T. Pacheco said total business name registration is already 22 percent higher this year at 780,000 compared to the entire 2019 record year of 637,000. Continued on A2
Continued on A2
n JAPAN 0.4594 n UK 62.6287 n HK 6.2532 n CHINA 7.1113 n SINGAPORE 35.5274 n AUSTRALIA 34.7044 n EU 56.7744 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.9214 Continued on A2
Source: BSP (October 5, 2020)