three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012
U.N. Media Award 2008
BusinessMirror
www.businessmirror.com.ph
week ahead
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW Foreign exchange
n Previous week: The local currency fell in value against the US dollar in the previous week, crossing the 45 territory on Thursday. The peso started the week with a 2-centavo depreciation against the dollar on Monday, closing trade at 44.9 to a dollar. The trend continued on Tuesday, when the peso lost 1.5 centavos against the greenback to trade at 44.915 against the dollar. Wednesday’s trade has the steepest decline of value of the peso, with a loss of 5.5 centavos from the previous day’s trade to hit 44.97 to a dollar. The peso crossed the 45 territory and closed at flat 45 to a dollar on Wednesday before hitting 45.03 against the greenback at the end of the week. The general reason for the decline in peso value was pointed to the continued strong US sentiment fueling the robust dollar movement. n Week ahead: In an earlier response to the BusinessMirror’s queries, Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) associate economist Nicholas Antonio Mapa said the dollar continues to “regain its prominence in the world market” due to the positive economic data it has been releasing. In the short term, the need may arise to look at economic data releases from the US, as well as possible policy moves (or nonmoves) from the European Central Bank.
Manufacturing data (September 2014)
Tuesday, November 11 n August’s manufacturing data: The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that the volume of production in August grew at a slower pace of 7.5 percent, compared to the 8.1 percent seen in the previous month and the 17.5 percent seen in the same month last year. The PSA attributed the slower growth to the reduction of production in the wood and wood products sector, chemical products sector and food manufacturing sector. n September’s manufacturing data: After several months of continuous cooling down of growth, manufacturing is expected to rebound in September this year due to the solid demand arising from the recovery of advanced economies, particularly the US.
Exports data (September 2014)
Tuesday, November 11 n August’s exports: The growth of the country’s exports slowed in August compared to that of the previous month but sustained its double-digit growth to hit 10.5 percent in August. PSA data showed that the top gainers for the month include coconut; article of apparel and clothing accessories; machinery and transport equipment; ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets for vehicles, aircraft and ships; mineral products; metal components; chemicals; and electronic products. Top losers, meanwhile, include woodcraft and furniture production. n September exports: In the latest issue of the First Metro Investment Corp. and University of Asia and the Pacific Market Call, the research tie-up expressed bullish views on the country’s exports, especially for agro-based products. Economists there also said the lifting of Manila’s truck ban may aid the exports’ continuous rise along with the solid growth of the US. Bianca Cuaresma
A broader look at today’s business
n Sunday, November 9, 2014 Vol. 10 No. 32
Moody’s cites stability of PHL banking system F
By Bianca Cuaresma
OLLOWING a wave of reforms implemented in the industry, the Philippine banking system is seen as having one of the strongest financial networks in the region. In the inaugural publication of Inside Asia, a quarterly publication covering themes and research highlights of sovereigns and financial institutions in the region, Moody’s Investors Service deemed the country’s financial system as one of strength and stability compared to other countries in the region. The publication not only reiterated that the Philippine banking system is the only one with a positive outlook in its banking systems; it also said that the local lending network is the only one in the region with an “improving” assess-
ment on two out of six parameters of banking strength amid bouts with volatility in recent months. In particular, the Philippine banking system tops 14 countries whose banking systems have also been assessed based on operating environment, asset quality, capital, liquidity and funding, profitability and efficiency, and systemic support. Out of these 14 countries in the region, only the Philippines has a positive banking-system outlook. The country’s banking
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See “Moody’s,” A2
SDAs unchanged in October
D
EPOSITS parked in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s special deposit account (SDA) facility remains unchanged a month after the Monetary Board (MB) decided to increase its interest rates in the low-risk, high-yield investment window for the second time this year. Latest data from the central bank showed SDAs hit P1.12 trillion as of October 17 this year, more than a month since the BSP’s dual action of 25-basis-point hikes in both the policy rate and the SDA rate on September 11 this year. The October 17 data is slightly lower than the previous week’s P1.14 trillion worth of deposits. It is higher than the end-September level of P1.07 trillion. It is also significantly lower compared to the P1.44 trillion seen in October last year—a month before the deadline of the BSP’s mandate to push out all the investment management accounts (IMAs) out of the facility and into the cash stream. In previous statements, the central bank blamed the mandate to push out IMAs out of the SDA facility to the rise of domestic liquidity in the country. Then, the following sustained high domestic-liquidity growth in the country’s stream warranted necessary action from the central bank. As such, the MB decided to raise its SDA interest rate by 25 basis points, from 2 percent to 2.25 percent first on June 19 this
PESO exchange rates n US 45.0380 n japan 0.3911
BSP Gov. Amando M. Tetangco Jr. said the tamer inflation environment will give them a breathing room to pause monetary tightening and wait for the recent movements to settle into the system.
year to siphon off excess liquidity from the system and back to the central bank’s vaults. Another 25-basis-point hike was made in September this year, from 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent on the same facility to further lure depositors into putting their money out of the cash stream and into the vaults to tame high domesticliquidity growth. BSP officials earlier said they will still have to wait for these new tightening measures—including the most recent hike in SDA interest rates—to “work their way” through the market. In his statement following the lower inflation rate seen in October this year, BSP Gov. Amando M. Tetangco Jr. said the tamer inflation environment will give them a breathing room to pause monetary tightening and wait for the recent movements to settle into the system. As such, the effects of the SDA-rate and policy-rate hikes are expected to be felt more in the coming months. Bianca Cuaresma
n UK 71.3087 n HK 5.8093 n CHINA 7.3684 n singapore 34.7650 n australia 38.6658 n EU 55.7435 n SAUDI arabia 12.0053 Source: BSP (7 November 2014)