Dinh Hoang Thang, Vietnam’s former ambassador to the Netherlands, said in Tokyo last week that it made sense for the Philippines to take a hard-line approach at first by seeking arbitration of its disputes with China, and then adjust its stance after it won the case in July. Asked if Vietnam might also change its approach, Thang said, “For a country like Vietnam and the Philippines, the most challenging issue is how to construct and maintain the balance among the big powers. And here I don’t see the big differences between the approach of the Philippines and Vietnam.” AP
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China scored another diplomatic victory in trying to co-opt rival South China Sea claimants when Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak signed a defense deal with Beijing and agreed to cooperate on maritime affairs. In a jab at the US, China and Malaysia said in a joint statement that the involvement of parties “not directly concerned” with the maritime dispute “could be counterproductive”. They also called for self-restraint in the South China Sea. In an editorial published in the state-run China Daily, Najib lashed out at “former colonial powers”, saying it was not “for them to lecture countries they once exploited on how to conduct their own internal affairs today.” AP
Philippine representative Harry L. Roque noted that China’s coast guard has stopped blocking Filipino fishermen from the disputed Scarborough Shoal. Roque, a lawyer who represents the fishermen, said the move means China is abiding by one aspect of the arbitration ruling, even if it officially rejects the court’s jurisdiction. “That would indicate that they still recognize the binding decision...even if, verbally, they say the contrary,” he said. AP
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The MarkeTs Under TrUMp?
It’s Certain That Hands Will Wring
By Fil V. Elefante
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An official merchandise table attracts a small crowd at Donald Trump’s campaign rally in San Diego, May 27, 2016. Stephen Crowley/the new york timeS
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By Andrew Ross Sorkin
SSUME, for a moment, that Donald Trump wins the presidency. Some readers of this column will shudder at the thought and might even stop reading now. Others in the business world will beam, like Peter Thiel, the Silicon Valley entrepreneur.
But what exactly happens the day after? To markets? To the economy? The conventional wisdom is that, right off the bat, the stock market would fall precipitously. Simon Johnson, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist, posited that Trump’s presidency would “likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession.” He predicted that Trump’s “anti-trade policies would cause a sharp slowdown, much like the British are experiencing” after their vote to exit the European Union. In explaining his prediction, Johnson wrote that Europe’s economy is so fragile that “Trump’s trade-led recession would tip Europe back into full-blown recession, which would likely precipitate a serious banking crisis.” After that, he continued: “If this risk were not contained—and the probability of a European banking debacle is already disconcertingly high—there would be a further nega-
tive spiral. Either way, the effects on emerging markets and all lower-income countries would be dramatic.” Johnson’s view may be a bit hyperbolic, but to one degree or another, his pessimism is shared by many economists across Wall Street, from Citigroup to Goldman Sachs. Each cites a different set of reasons the markets will fall if Trump wins. But is the conventional wisdom right? Naturally enough, investors and analysts hate uncertainty. Hillary Clinton largely represents the status quo. Trump is more like Forrest Gump’s “box of chocolates,” as Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, an economic advisory firm in Washington, put it. “You never know what you’re going to get.” In all likelihood, a Trump victory would lead to a swift, knee-jerk sell-off. Many investors will choose to sell stocks and ask questions later.
TruMp branded merchandise in the lobby of Trump Tower, on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan, July 9, 2016. Damon winter/the new york timeS
would make a change in what many view as a dovish-leaning Fed leadership much more likely.” A handful of economists have suggested that despite all of the promises made by the candidates, the outcome of the election might not actually decide what direction the markets will take. “Putting aside their personalities and policy proposals, it will likely not matter who the next president is when it comes to where markets go,” Boockvar wrote in a note to clients. “As we are in the second-longest bull market of all time, and as we approach the eighth year of this economic expansion,” he wrote, “odds are high that whoever the next president is, they will preside over a recession, a bear market and rising debts and deficits.” While Clinton is clearly the favorite choice of Fortune 500 chief executives and investors, Wall Street, perhaps surprisingly, is less enthusiastic about the idea of a Clinton presidency combined with potential Democratic majorities in the House and the Senate. “The S&P 500 has tended to react poorly to increases in the implied probability of a Democratic sweep, after removing the estimated effects of changes in growth, inflation and policy expectations,” Goldman Sachs wrote. “The upshot is that the equity market appears to favor Clinton to Trump, but also seems to prefer divided government over single-party control.”
business sense But in the days and weeks after a Trump victory, among investors who cull their portfolios carefully, the decision about buying and selling will be company by company, industry by industry, currency by currency and so forth. If Trump wins, two companies that seem poised for an immediate pummeling are AT&T and Time Warner, given
how much Candidate Trump has objected to their recently announced merger plan. AT&T, by the way, also happens to have a huge business in Mexico. The biggest test for the stock markets might be pegged to the future leadership of the Federal Reserve. “There is much more uncertainty regarding who Trump might nominate, though he has made it clear he
would not renominate Chair Yellen,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients. “His criticisms of Fed policy are somewhat ambiguous; he has suggested rates have been left too low for too long, but also warns of negative consequences of rate hikes. We would expect that financial markets would view a Trump victory as having slightly hawkish implications, since it
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portland trail blazers guard c.J. Mccollum (right) drives against Memphis Grizzlies guard andrew harrison. AP
Now No. 1, Murray vies for Nole’s title
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ARIS—Having taken Novak Djokovic’s No. 1 ranking and his Paris Masters title, Andy Murray will try to grab another of his friend and rival’s crowns at the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) finals. Murray has never won the season-ending tournament, but heads to London full of confidence after winning the Paris Masters on Sunday. “The last few years I haven’t played so well [at the ATP finals],” Murray said. “I do think playing in front of a home crowd helps. It makes a difference, so hopefully I’ll be able to perform a bit better this year.” Murray did not need home supporters in Paris, beating big-serving American John Isner, 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-4. He has won his past four tournaments and a career-high eight this year. This win was challenging—Isner missed six break-point chances—and it came the day after Murray ensured he’d became world No. 1. The official rankings are published on Monday. The 29-year-old Murray has three Grand Slam titles, two Olympic gold medals, a Davis Cup title and now—finally—the top ranking for the first time. “No one would have expected what I have done the last few months,” Murray said. “I don’t really know if it’s sunk in or not.” Three big titles he has yet to win are still held by Djokovic: the ATP finals, the Australian Open and the French Open. Djokovic and Roger Federer have won the finals 11 times between them since 2003, with Djokovic winning it for the past four years. This year Djokovic beat Murray in Grand Slam finals at the Australian Open in three sets and at Roland Garros in four. Murray has been a runner-up eight times in majors, with five of those in Australia. “I’d love to win the Australian Open.... It’s the next major goal, because I have been close a number of times,” Murray said. “I have never quite done it.” But he needs to finish off 2016, first. Murray will be the favorite when the finals begin next Sunday. He is the only British player to hold the top spot since the rankings began in 1973, and the oldest first-time No. 1 since John Newcombe at 30 in 1974. Murray secured top spot after Milos Raonic withdrew from their semifinal on Saturday. That sent Murray through to the final and, coupled with Djokovic’s quarterfinal loss, ensured enough points. Murray reached No. 2 for the first time more than seven years ago, and his career has been all about chasing the stars of tennis. Djokovic has 12 Grand Slam titles, Rafael Nadal has 14, and Federer is all-time leader with 17. “Put him in any other era, he probably has more Grand Slams,” Isner said of Murray. Murray has been playing those three his whole career—and also more recently world No. 3 Stan Wawrinka—and it shows in the statistics. Djokovic, who is one week younger than Murray, leads him 24-10; Nadal leads Murray by 17-7; and Federer’s up 14-11. That, along with some back surgery, helps explain why Murray has won fewer titles than his main rivals. Sunday’s win was his 43rd—of which 14 are Masters. Impressive enough, but way behind the other three. AP
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Murray celebrates rise to the top with paris Masters title
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By Jerome Pugmire The Associated Press
ARIS—Celebrating the best season of his career, Andy Murray cemented his rise to No. 1 by beating John Isner, 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-4, on Sunday to win the Paris Masters for the first time. It was his eighth title this year, his 14th in Masters overall. It also ended Isner’s bid for a first Masters title. “I felt really nervous before the match,” Murray said, despite having beaten the big-serving American in all seven of their previous career meetings. Murray will officially replace Novak Djokovic at the top of the rankings when they are published on Monday. “It might only be for one week. So, I might as well try and enjoy it,” Murray said. “Because I could lose it at the [ATP] Tour Finals and never be there again.” The 29-year-old Murray is still getting accustomed to his newfound status. “I don’t really know if it’s sunk in or not,” said Murray, who is a three-time Grand Slam winner and a double Olympic champion. “It feels different [to] when I had won a Grand Slam or [the] Olympics.” Especially in the number of congratulatory messages. “More than I’ve had after any match I have played in my life,” Murray said. “It’s very nice, because you have won the respect of the players.” Murray recently beat Isner, 6-1, 6-3, in the quarterfinals of the Erste Bank Open in Vienna, but this was thoroughly contested. “We played last week and the difference was huge,” Murray said. Using 18 aces and hitting plenty of inside-out winners on his massive forehand, Isner generated considerable pressure. But he also wasted six break points overall. In the second set, he was 4-3 ahead and 40-0 up
McCollum tows Blazers to win versus Grizzlies
on Murray’s serve, but failed to punish the Briton— last year’s runner-up to Djokovic. But in a rare dip, Murray double-faulted during the tiebreaker and Isner profited to take the set. Isner saved break points on his first two service games of the third set, hanging on as Murray restored his superiority. Then, serving to stay in the match, the 2.08-meter (6-foot-10-inch) American double-faulted to trail 0-30. He won a tough first point and then hit yet another ace to make it 30-30. Isner sank a difficult volley into the net, giving Murray a first match point. With Isner on second serve, Murray dominated a brief rally, pinging a pass down the line that Isner patted into the net with the ball close to his body. It was a hard-fought victory and Isner stood with his head down at the net, waiting to congratulate Murray. Murray has won four consecutive tournaments, taking his career tally to 43. Next up is the season-ending ATP finals in London, beginning next Sunday. Murray will cross the English Channel to try and take the title there, having secured his top ranking here. “This has been an incredible journey to get to the top of the rankings,” said Murray, whose brother Jamie is among the world’s best doubles players. “There haven’t been many tennis players from Scotland over the years, and a lot of what we have done is big credit to our parents,” Murray said. “Our mum was a tennis coach. She helped us learn the game really and helped us enjoy the game at a young age.” The 31-year-old Isner, playing in the third Masters final of his career, ends the year without a title. He lost his other final this season to Australian Nick Kyrgios at Atlanta, Georgia, in August. Some small consolation is that he finishes the year with the most aces at 1,159—the fourth time he has
achieved this. Murray broke Isner twice, the first time to move 4-2 up in the first set. Isner fought back, a booming forehand winner giving him two break points in the seventh game. Murray saved the first one with a lob— impressive against such a tall player— and volley. He rescued the second by forcing an unforced error. Serving for the first set, Murray won the first point with an extraordinary backhand retrieve from a speedy Isner forehand that he somehow turned into a cross-court winner. “That was pretty spectacular from him,” Isner said. “He always clamps down on me when I have a bit of an opening.” In the second set, Isner got a deserved ovation in the eighth game when he won a 20-stroke rally. Showing nimble footwork that belied his size, he traded shots with Murray, winning the point with a superb drop shot and then a forehand winner from Murray’s retrieve. Isner was playing his best tennis of the match and had Murray 0-40 down. Murray recovered but gave Isner another chance at deuce. He missed that chance, too.
EMPHIS, Tennessee—Damian Lillard had his lowest-scoring game of the season. CJ McCollum made up the difference by matching the best game of his National Basketball Association (NBA) career. McCollum scored 37 points, 16 in the fourth quarter, to help the Portland Trail Blazers beat the Memphis Grizzlies, 100-94, on Sunday. He had 10 straight Portland points in the closing minutes to put the game away, and also matched his career best with six three-pointers. Lillard added 19 points and seven assists, and Maurice Harkless finished with 18 points. “He was big-time,” Lillard said of McCollum. “That’s who he is. We see him get hot like that all the time.... As a point guard, and as somebody that knows how capable he is of taking over a game, you go to it.” Marc Gasol led Memphis with 21 points, and Mike Conley added 16 points and seven assists. Zach Randolph had 15 points and seven rebounds. The game was close with 13 lead changes and 12 ties before Portland pulled away late behind McCollum hitting six-ofnine shots in the fourth. The Utah Jazz had a 114-109 win over the Knicks, with Gordon Hayward scoring 28 points in his season debut and George Hill contributing 23 points and nine assists. Hayward had been sidelined since breaking his right ring finger in training camp. He led the team in scoring last season, averaging nearly 20 points. Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis each had 28 for the Knicks, and Derrick Rose added 18, as New York slipped to its third loss in four games. Rudy Gay scored 23 against his former team, helping the Sacramento Kings to a 96-91 win over the Toronto Raptors to end a four-game losing streak. The Dallas Mavericks won the first time this season, with Harrison Barnes scoring a career-high 34 points in the 86-75 overtime victory against Milwaukee. Barnes, who left Golden State to sign a $94-million, four-year contract with the Mavericks in the off-season, has scored at least 30 points twice this season after hitting the mark only once in his four years with the Warriors. His 20-foot jumper opened the scoring in overtime, and the depleted Mavericks (1-5) never trailed after that. The Bucks scored just one point in the extra period. The Mavericks played without starters Dirk Nowitzki (right Achilles soreness) and Deron Williams (left-calf strain). Elsewhere, the Nuggets had a 123-107 win over an injury-depleted Boston Celtics and the Lakers moved above .500 for only the second time in nearly three years with a 119-108 win over the Phoenix Suns. The Celtics, missing regular starters Jae Crowder (left-ankle sprain) and Al Horford (concussion), left the floor to a loud chorus of boos. Emmanuel Mudiay scored 24 of his season-high 30 points in the opening quarter for Denver. At Los Angeles, the Lakers (4-3) held off the Suns down the stretch despite Devin Booker’s career-high 39 points. It was Los Angeles’s third victory in its last 14 meetings with the Suns, who have lost five of seven. Other than its season-opening victory last month, Los Angeles hadn’t had a winning record since the franchise was 10-9 on December 6, 2013. AP
britain’s andy Murray (above) holds the trophy after winning the final of the paris Masters tennis tournament against John isner of the united states. (below) Murray gives a thumbs-up sign to the crowd. AP
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flicted area. “There is conflict; so, hopefully, it would be clarified,” Cusi said. He added that conflicting issues were not officially discussed during President Duterte’s recent trip to China. “There was no opportunity,” he said.
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Part Two
upertYPHOON Yolanda’s devastation caused a policeman to regret wearing a uniform. “My mind was not on what I was doing. I was disheartened,” he told the BusinessMirror. “There I was, bringing other people to safety, while I don’t even know what happened to my own family.” But as the young cop from Palompon found his family in Palo on November 9, civilian volunteers worked in tandem with the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) medical team at the Tacloban airport. Maximo P. del Ponso Jr. of the 134th Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) Auxiliary Squadron told the BusinessMirror his group put up a makeshift clinic and treated patients who had simple wounds, from lacerations to incisions. “Those who had more serious injuries or illnesses were handled by the AFP medical team,” said del Ponso, a physician. Everybody shared what they had brought, such as intravenous fluids, bandages and all sorts of medical supplies, he recalled. “That was a very positive experience,” del Ponso said. “Everybody was sharing and helping out.”
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resident Duterte’s approach to the Muslim secessionist movement offers better chances at finally establishing lasting peace in Mindanao. Instead of negotiating with just one group, he has initiated dialogue with different groups, including the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). Continued on A10
When asked if Duterte and concerned Chinese officials discussed this, Cusi said: “That is best answered by the presidential spokesman.” See “Moratorium,” A2
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CUSI: “There is conflict; so, hopefully, it would be clarified.”
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HE moratorium on oil and gas exploration at the West Philippine Sea (WPS) stays, despite the improving relations between the Philippines and China.
“The moratorium, as of now, stays,” Energy Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi said, when asked if the moratorium would be lifted anytime soon. He said Manila and Beijing still need to clear certain issues concerning the con-
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Debt payments, lower gold prices chipped G.I.R. to $85.75B in October
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By Bianca Cuaresma
@BcuaresmaBM
he country’s dollar reserves dipped slightly in October, pulled down by payments made by the national government for its maturing obligations, as well as the lower value of gold holdings due to the lower market value of gold in the international market. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported on Monday the country’s gross international reserves (GIR) dipped to $85.75 billion in October. Payments made by the national government for its maturing foreign-exchange obligations, foreign-exchange operations of the central bank and the revaluation adjustments on the BSP’s gold holdings resulting from the decrease in the price of gold in the international market mainly caused the drop. The central bank manages the GIR and uses it to underwrite obligations. It also serves as a cushion for the economy against unexpected imbalances that stem from external pressures and global developments. Gold reserves, special drawing rights (SDR), foreign investments and foreign-exchange reserves comprise See “Debt payments,” A2
MAXIMO P. DEL PONSO JR. and a C-130 pilot assess the situation at the Tacloban airport.
n japan 0.4658 n UK 60.4423 n HK 6.2462 n CHINA 7.1725 n singapore 35.0072 n australia 37.2624 n EU 53.6264 n SAUDI arabia 12.9164
Source: BSP (7 November 2016 )