BSP to take prudent pause in easing rates
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FTER bouts of aggressive easing measures to keep the economy afloat amid the pandemic, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno said they may have to “wait and see” before pulling the trigger on another rate cut. In a statement released Tuesday, Diokno told reporters that while inflation is expected to trend lower in the coming months, that does not necessarily mean they will cut their main policy rates further. “Clearly, the more benign inflation provides the Monetary Board greater room for easing. However, since monetary policy works with a lag, it would be prudent on the part of the Monetary Board to see how the aggressive policy measures it has adopted have been absorbed by the financial system,” Diokno told reporters.
A POLICEMAN in an armored personnel carrier enforces a hard lockdown on Happyland, a slum area populated by former Smokey Mountain residents when it was closed in 1995. The district is reported to have the second-highest case of Covid-19 in Manila, next to Sampaloc. At least 200 have been arrested for violating the lockdown. NONIE REYES
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In response to the economic disruption caused by the pandemic, the BSP’s recent move was to trigger an off-cycle rate cut to the tune of 50 basis points in mid-April. Prior to the most recent off-cycle rate cut, Diokno had already cut the BSP’s main policy rate by 50 basis points in March. Three days later, the governor announced that the BSP is buying P300 billion worth of government securities from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) to finance the government’s Covid-19 rescue package. The BSP also continued to flush the ailing economy with liquidity through a 200-basis-point cut in banks’ reserve requirement (RR) ratio the following week. It has also pledged to remit its P20-billion dividends ahead of time to the national government to help fund efforts against
the virus. “Notwithstanding, the BSP will continue to monitor market conditions to any emerging risks to the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, thus, ensure its resolve to deploy necessary policy responses and measures, if warranted,” the governor said. The country’s inflation currently sits at 2.7 percent in the first three months of 2020. Diokno’s most recent assessment rendered a forecast of 2.2 percent on average for the entire 2020, which means inflation will likely hover around 2.0 percent on average for the next nine months of the year. March’s inflation rate is at 2.5 percent. The Philippine Statistics Authority is expected to announce the country’s April inflation rate on Wednesday, May 5.
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Tuesday, May 5, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 208
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FROM ADDITIONAL OIL TAX
MRT personnel are seen doing maintenance checks along the North Avenue-Quezon Avenue line in Quezon City. At right, a PNR train with new coaches is parked in Caloocan City. Once the ECQ is lifted, public transportation systems will be allowed, but with strict limitations. BERNARD TESTA
By Samuel Medenilla & Bernadette D. Nicolas
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HE government is now banking on low global oil prices to generate additional revenue for its novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) measures by implementing additional taxes for imported crude and refined petroleum products.
Initial estimates put the possible bonanza from such for the government at P20 billion for six months, according to the Department of Finance. On Saturday, President Duterte signed Executive Order (EO) 113 implementing the recommendation of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) for the temporary imposition of a 10-percent ad valorem tax on imported crude and refined petroleum products. It will remain enforceable until Republic Act 11469 or the Bayanihan to Heal As One Act ceases to take effect or upon its reversion, whichever is earlier. “The modified rates of import duty under Section 1 hereof shall immediately revert to zero as international oil prices increase, based on trigger prices indexed to oil prices in the world market, upon certification by the Department of
Energy (DOE) that a trigger price has been reached, and the Department of Finance (DOF) has been notified of the same,” Duterte’s two-paged EO 113 said. “The Bureau of Customs (BOC) shall then issue the corresponding Customs Memorandum Order to effect the said reversion,” it added.
P20-B revenue projection
FINANCE Undersecretary and Chief Economist Gil Beltran said in a text message to the BusinessMirror that the P20-billion revenue projection by the DOF was “based on low-end negative 1 percent growth and $35 per barrel price for Dubai crude.” For this year, Beltran said the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is projecting a negative 1 percent to zero growth in 2020, as of April. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the DBCC is targeting a
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 50.4440
6.5-percent to 7.5-percent GDP growth for this year. Last month, prices of Brent Crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, plunged to a historic low of about $20 per barrel brought about by the lower oil demand because of the business and travel disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The additional 10-percent ad valorem tax will be on top of the existing Most Favored Nation (MFN) and preferential import duties of the said items. It will apply to all petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals other than crude; preparations not elsewhere specified or included, containing by weight 70 percent or more of petroleum oils or of oils obtained from bituminous minerals, these oils being the basic constituents of the preparations; and waste oils; petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons. The additional tax, once implemented, will apply to all covered products “which entered and [were] withdrawn from warehouses in the Philippines for consumption.” EO 113 will take effect after being published in the Official Gazette or in a newspaper of general circulation. Duterte said the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) will study and propose where the proceeds for the additional tax will be used for the government Covidrelated response, including social amelioration program and other similar programs.
PCCI ASKS CONGRESS TO PASS P500-B ECONOMIC STIMULUS BILL
By Elijah Felice Rosales & Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz
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HE country’s largest business group on Monday appealed to lawmakers to immediately pass the stimulus bill in Congress amounting to nearly P500 billion in order to encourage the private sector to resume activity and boost confidence of both investors
and consumers. In a statement, the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) threw its support for the passage of the Philippine Economic Stimulus Act (PESA), a multibillion-peso measure filed by economists-turnedlawmakers in the House of Representatives. The group said the bill addresses See “Stimulus,” A2
HARSH realities become more stark in the face of the pandemic, as businesses are ordered closed and people told to stay indoors and keep a safe distance from each other. But in the slum areas of Manila, the world’s most densely populated city with 42,857 people per square kilometer, that is easier said than done. NONIE REYES
n JAPAN 0.4722 n UK 62.9945 n HK 6.5067 n CHINA 7.1284 n SINGAPORE 35.6243 n AUSTRALIA 32.2993 n EU 55.3572 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4374
Source: BSP (May 4, 2020)