Food security at risk from global fertilizer crunch By Elizabeth Elkin & Samuel Gebre
F THE WORLD » A8
Death everywhere as Kharkiv turns into an open-air morgue
Bloomberg News
OR the first time ever, farmers the world over—all at the same time—are testing the limits of how little chemical fertilizer they can apply without devastating their yields come harvest time. Early predictions are bleak. In Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean producer, a 20-percent cut in potash use could bring a 14-percent drop in yields, according to industry consultancy MB Agro. In Costa Rica, a coffee cooperative representing 1,200 small producers sees output falling as much as 15 percent next year if the farmers miss even one-third of normal application.
In West Africa, falling fertilizer use will shrink this year’s rice and corn harvest by a third, according to the International Fertilizer Development Center, a food security non-profit group. “Probably farmers will grow enough to feed themselves. But the question is what they will have to feed the cities,” said Patrice Annequin, a senior fertilizer market specialist for IFDC based in Ivory Coast. When you add increased hunger across West Africa on top of existing risks like terrorism, “this is absolutely dangerous for many governments in our region.” For the billions of people around the world who don’t work in agriculture, the global shortage of affordable fertilizer likely reads like a distant problem. In truth, it will
leave no household unscathed. In even the least-disruptive scenario, soaring prices for synthetic nutrients will result in lower crop yields and higher grocery store prices for everything from milk to beef to packaged foods for months or even years to come across the developed world. And in developing economies already facing high levels of food insecurity? Lower fertilizer use risks engendering malnutrition, political unrest and, ultimately, the otherwise avoidable loss of human life. “I’m reducing the use of fertilizer in this crop cycle. I can’t afford such stratospheric prices,” Marcelo Cudia, 61, a farmer in the Philippines’s rice-producing region of Central Luzon, said outside the patch of land he’s been cultivating for the last 13 years.
About 12,000 miles away, Brazilian soybean farmer Napoleão Rutilli is facing the same tough choices. “If fertilizers are expensive, we’ll use less fertilizers. If we’ll use less, we’ll produce less,” said the second-generation farmer, 33. “Food prices will increase and everyone will suffer.”
Why are fertilizer prices going up?
Commercial farmers rely on a combination of three key nutrients—nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium—to fuel their harvests. Those inputs have always been key, but it was only about a century ago that humanity learned to manufacture mass-produced ammonia-based nutrients. See “Food security,” A2
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Wednesday, May 4, 2022 Vol. 17 No. 206
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E-SABONG HALT SPELLS P5B-P6B REVENUE LOSS n
By Bernadette D. Nicolas
After robust April PMI, factories seen doing better
@BNicolasBM
& Samuel P. Medenilla
P
@sam_medenilla
RESIDENT Duterte’s decision to halt electronic cockfighting or e-sabong operations in the country will bleed the government of P5 billion to P6 billion in revenues this year, staterun Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (Pagcor) said. Given this, Pagcor is now expecting P50 billion to P60 billion in gross gaming revenues this year from its previous estimate of P60 billion to P65 billion. Though downscaled, the new projected level of gross gaming revenues is almost double its gross gaming revenues in 2021, when pandemic lockdowns curbed gaming operations, at P32.63 billion. Pagcor Chairman Andrea Domingo on Tuesday said they have to implement the President’s decision immediately. “The Executive Secretary will issue a formal memorandum to this effect and we will serve the appropriate notice to the Pagcor regulated e-sabong operators. We will also inform the COA [Commission on Audit] Auditor officially that starting today, there will no longer be revenues collected from e-sabong operations,” Domingo said in a message to the BusinessMirror. Sought how the stop of e-sabong operations will affect their projected gross gaming revenues, Domingo said: “It would probably be P5B to P6B less.”
By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM
& Andrea E. San Juan
T
Teachers receive vote counting machines at the Apolonio Samson Elementary School in Quezon City on Tuesday (May 3, 2022) during the Final Testing and Sealing of VCMs, ahead of the May elections. Story on page A2. NONOY LACZA
RANKS OF POOR IN LOWER MID INCOME ZONES TO SWELL BY 43M By Cai U. Ordinario @caiordinario
H
IGHER international poverty lines could increase the ranks of the poor by 43 million in lower middle income countries in East Asia and
the Pacific, according to World Bank estimates. World Bank economists Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Aziz Atamanov, Dean Mitchell Jolliffe, Christoph Lakner, and Samuel Kofi Tetteh Baah estimated that this was due to the adjustment of international
poverty lines to the 2017 purchasing power parity (PPP) from 2011 PPP. This adjustment increased the international poverty line in the region for low middle income countries to $3.65 per day from the initial $3.2 per day.
“At the $3.20-line [for lower-middle-income countries], poverty increases at the global level by 0.6 percentage points, or by 43 million poor people,” the economists said.
HE manufacturing sector is still expected to improve in the coming months, after recently posting a record purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in April, a local private banking economist said, a view shared by the country’s trade and industry chief. “We expect both mobility and manufacturing PMI to stay above 90 percent and 50, respectively, in May as restrictions are lessened and vaccination drive intensified, as well as the ongoing election-related economic activities,” Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said in a news statement released on Tuesday. “We are hopeful that these gains will not be outweighed by the downside from Russia-Ukraine conflict,” he added. Meanwhile, in his analysis on the recently published PMI of the country for April, Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) chief economist Michael Ricafort said the recent positive performance of the manufacturing sector is expected to support the recovery of the entire economy going forward.
See “Poor,” A2
See “E-sabong,” A2
PESO exchange rates
See “PMI,” A2
n US 52.3350 n japan 0.4029 n UK 65.8584 n HK 6.6698 n CHINA 7.8990 n singapore 37.8471 n australia 36.9851 n EU 55.2082 n SAUDI arabia 13.9534
Source: BSP (2 May 2022)