Businessmirror march 28, 2015

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three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012

U.N. Media Award 2008

BusinessMirror

www.businessmirror.com.ph

A broader look at today’s business

n Sunday, March 29, 2015 Vol. 10 No. 171

HSBC lists ‘main risks’ to ‘stable’ PHL economy

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week ahead

ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW Foreign exchange

n Previous week: The local currency mostly rallied in the previous week, appreciating in the first two days. In particular, the peso appreciated to 44.79 to a dollar on Monday, from the previous week’s close of 44.815 to a dollar. This further appreciated to hit 44.67 to a dollar on Tuesday. On Wednesday, however, the peso hit 44.755 to a dollar and depreciated further on Thursday at 44.83. The peso ended the week with a slight correction on Friday at 44.76 to a dollar. The average exchange rate of the peso during the week is at 44.761 to a dollar, weaker than the average of 44.65 to a dollar in the previous week. n Week ahead: The foreign-exchange trading platform in the country will be facing a shortened trading week due to the Holy Week-related suspensions. An international bank during the week, however, said the peso is still seen to continue trading around the 45 territory and will only appreciate significantly toward the end of the year.

M3 (February 2015)

March 31, Tuesday n January M3: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reported that domestic liquidity—or the volume of money currently in the economy, broadly measured as M3—grew by 7.7 percent in January 2015 to hit P7.5 trillion from its level in the same month the previous year. This is the lowest cash-supply growth in the country since September 2012, when it hit 6.4 percent. n February M3: Liquidity in the system has been slowing down significantly in the past months, from its previous peak of 30 percent down to a singledigit growth trend in the coming months. This is seen to continue in the coming months into 2015. Amid the slowdown, central bank officials have said that the economy has enough liquidity to fuel the growing economy, which targets a gross domestic product expansion of 7 percent to 8 percent this year. Bianca Cuaresma

By Bianca Cuaresma

imited investments in the country and the uncertainty of inflation in the event that oil prices normalize immediately are touted as the “main risks” to the country’s strong and stable economy in 2015, an international banking giant said.

In its quarterly review of Asian economies, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. (HSBC) said that, although it remains optimistic for the Philippines versus other countries in the region, some factors remain concerns for the Philippine economy. Among these factors include unaddressed investment growth and short-term supply shocks that may lead to inflation worries toward the middle to the latter part of the year. “Limited investment remains a concern. The private-public partnership initiative has been slug-

gish at best. The administration has promised to raise infrastructure investment, but, thus far, key shortages, such as electricity and air transport, remain unaddressed,” HSBC said. The British banking giant added that this lag in investment will drag down the economy’s competitiveness, as well as its output potential. “We expect public investment to slow and private consumption, as well as private investment, to pick up the slack. Should government spending slow more than expected See “HSBC,” A2

MVP less interested to cast lot in ‘deal of the century’

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By Lorenz S. Marasigan

he so-called deal of the century, or the contract to operate the Philippines’s top gas field, might not be too profitable, if at all, one of the country’s most prolific businessmen said over the weekend. First Pacific Co. Ltd. Managing Director and CEO Manuel V. Pangi­linan admitted, though, that his company has yet to fully grasp the idea of auctioning off the Malampaya Deep Water Gas-to-Power Facility after the private partner’s concession expires in 2024. But at this stage of the plan, the firm will likely not participate in the bidding of the deal. “We are not aware of the project, so maybe not on our radar,” he replied, when asked if his group would be interested in gaining a hold of the project. Metro Pacific Investments Corp., the local flagship of Hong Kong-based conglomerate First Pacific, has interests in the power industry, having a significant shareholding in power distributor Manila Electric Co. (Meralco). But it seems that the project might not be too profitable, Pangi­ linan implied, when he said in the vernacular: “Paubos na iyon. Ano pa’ng bibilhin mo doon [The reserves are depleting. What are you going to invest in]?” The Malampaya gas field currently supplies natural gas to the 1,200-megawatt (MW) Ilijan, the 1,000-MW Santa Rita and the 500MW San Lorenzo plants. The gas field is 850 meters deep offshore northwest Palawan and has proven reserves of about 2.5 trillion to

PESO exchange rates n US 44.8270

See “Deal of the Century,” A2

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Yellen: Rate increase may be warranted later this year

W

Yellen

AP

ASHINGTON—Federal Reserve (the Fed) Chairman Janet Yellen said on Friday that the continued improvement in the US economy means an increase in the Fed’s key interest rate could come later this year.

CPI

Consumer Price Index percent change, by month, seasonally adjusted: 0.75

0.75

ANNUAL 4 2

3.3%

0

’04

0.8 ’14

+0.2%

0.50

0.50

0.25

0.25

0.00 0.00

-0.25

-0.25

-0.50 -0.50

Feb. ’14

Feb. ’15

Graphic: Tribune News Service Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

But Yellen stressed that any rate increase would likely be very gradual. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate at a record low near zero for more than six years. Yellen said in a speech in San Francisco that the time to start raising the rate could occur “sometime this year,” though she said the time hasn’t yet arrived. In her speech, Yellen said that the Fed’s first move would depend on how the economy performs. She said that when the Fed does start raising rates, policy-makers expect the increases to be “rather gradual” for the next few years. Yellen said Japan’s experience over the past 20 years argues for a cautious approach. Over that time, Japan has struggled with anemic economic growth, as well as deflation—a period of falling prices that’s been hard for its policy-makers to overcome. Yellen said that a key reason for a gradual approach to higher rates is that the danger of raising them too fast is greater than the risk of doing so too slowly. If the Fed were to tighten loan rates too quickly, the economy could stall and, with rates still relatively low, the Fed would have little room to cut them. But she did say that taking a “gradualist approach” to raising rates carries its own risks. One is the possibility that it might undermine the Fed’s credibility as an inflation fighter and could risk instability in financial markets by allowing an excessive buildup in borrowing. “At this point, the evidence indicates that such vulnerabilities do not pose a significant threat, but the [Fed] is carefully monitoring developments in this area,” she said. See “Rate Increase,” A2

n japan 0.3761 n UK 66.5905 n HK 5.7808 n CHINA 7.2157 n singapore 32.7372 n australia 35.1805 n EU 48.8121 n SAUDI arabia 11.9510 Source: BSP (27 March 2015)


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