Businessmirror march 22, 2015

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three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012

U.N. Media Award 2008

BusinessMirror

www.businessmirror.com.ph

A broader look at today’s business

n Sunday, March 22, 2015 Vol. 10 No. 164

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S&P: Philippine banking system most resilient in Asia-Pacific region

week ahead

ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW

Foreign currency

n Previous week: Dollar strength pulled the movements in the foreign-exchange trading platform this week, causing the peso to lose value and go near the 45 territory. The deceleration started at the week’s start as it traded at 44.415 to a dollar on Monday, versus the previous week’s close of 44.3 to a dollar. This decelerated further to 44.55 to a dollar on Tuesday and at 44.75 to a dollar on Wednesday. The peso slightly corrected to 44.72 to a dollar on Thursday, and ended the week at 44.815 to a dollar. The total traded volume slightly rose during the week at $3.176 billion, compared to $3.161 billion in the previous week. The average value of the peso during the week is at 44.65 to a dollar, sharply decelerating from the previous week’s average of 44.274 against the dollar. n Week ahead: Markets will still likely watch out for economic-data releases from advanced economies, particularly the United States, that will likely dictate the movement in the coming week, as the local central bank’s decision of an unchanged monetary-policy stance in its upcoming Thursday meeting has already been factored in by markets.

Monetary-policy stance March 26, Thursday

n Previous monetary-policy stance: In its first monetary-policy meeting for the year, the Monetary Board (MB) decided to keep its key policy rates at 4 percent for the overnight borrowing, or reverse repurchase facility, and 6 percent for the overnight lending, or repurchase facility. The special deposit accounts interest rates were also kept steady at 2.5 percent, and the reserve requirement ratios were left unchanged for the meeting. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Amando M. Tetangco Jr. said in his postMB meeting statement that the sevenman monetary policy-making board made the decision to maintain all policy levers unchanged based on its assessment that prevailing monetary-policy settings remain appropriate due to the lower trajectory of inflation for the year. n Upcoming monetary-policy stance: Economists polled by the BusinessMirror showed consensus in the view that the BSP will not change its monetary-policy stance in the March 26 meeting due to tame inflation dynamics and the uncertainty in oilprice movement and monetary-policy actions of advanced economies. The BSP is also seen to not join the wave of economies cutting rates to lift inflation number (see related story). Bianca Cuaresma

T

By Bianca Cuaresma

HE Philippine banking system remains the most resilient in the Asia-Pacific region, as indicated in the most recent assessment made by an international credit watcher. In a recent webinar, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Ratings Services presented the heat map of the AsiaPacific Banking Outlook for 2015, in which the Philippines remained largely insulated against shocks in the local and international developments that may emerge in 2015. S&P assessed banking systems in terms of six risk factors—including a local economic slowdown; interest-rate increases in their own central banks; a property price drop in their jurisdictions; and a possibility of a senior creditor bail-in for international events—banks were gauged on the hazards of risks in the euro zone and in China.

Dollar drop is worst since 2011 as investors rethink Fed policy

In these six risk factors, the Philippine banking system scored a “limited impact” on four risk factors, “intermediate impact” on one risk factor and “high impact” on senior creditor bail-in. In particular, the euro-zone risks, China’s possible disorderly property adjustment, an interest-rate increase in the Philippines and a property price drop have a limited impact on the country’s financial system. A possible economic slowdown in the Philippines, meanwhile, has an intermediate impact for the country. Senior creditor bail-in—or the potential removal of government support, meanwhile, has a negative See “Banking System,” A2

Economists see no change in BSP monetary policies

E

CONOMISTS based here and abroad believe that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will not change any of its current monetary policies in the second Monetary Board policy-stance meeting on Thursday, amid the divergence of global economic developments in the previous months. Seven bank economists shared an “unchanged” forecast for the central board’s meeting on March 26, very much like its other last three policy meetings. This, despite the fast-rising trend in central banks across the globe of cutting their rates down—mostly in a surprise move—owing to the steep decline of inflation caused by the very low prices of oil in the global market. “[There is] no compelling reason to change monetary-policy settings at this time. Inflation expectations are relatively stable and within the target inflation range, while economic growth is likely to retain the momentum of 2014 and see a modest acceleration, as domestic demands are likely to remain strong,” ING Bank Manila economist Joey Cuyegkeng told the BusinessMirror in a response to a query. Other economists also said that BSP Governor Amando M. Te­tangco Jr. has laid out clear forward-guidance statements in his recent speaking engagements and accounts with the media that there will be no change in the upcoming policy meeting this month. “Forward guidance has been a hallmark of Tetangco’s career. They always let the market know what is on their minds. Comments from the governor and deputy governors affirm our view,” Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) economist Nicholas Antonio Mapa said. “As the governor himself said, there is no need for economic stimulus [read: cut in rates], despite some 20 central banks around the world cutting their policy rates because we continue to enjoy a robust growth, coupled with a benign inflation figure that is well within their

PESO exchange rates n US 44.6610

See “Monetary policies,” A2

T

he dollar slumped the most since October 2011, after the Federal Reserve (the Fed) reduced projections for interest-rate increases and expressed concern that the dollar’s surge is weighing on exports and inflation. See “Dollar,” A2

n japan 0.3697 n UK 65.8214 n HK 5.7558 n CHINA 7.2079 n singapore 32.1974 n australia 34.1132 n EU 47.5640 n SAUDI arabia 11.9083 Source: BSP (20 March 2015)


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Businessmirror march 22, 2015 by BusinessMirror - Issuu