Experts split on lowering debt-GDP ratio By Bernadette D. Nicolas
recommended debt threshold. “I don’t want to be pessimistic, but, looking at this historical evidence, it might take us about 10-11 years before we can return to a pre-pandemic ratio,” Asuncion said in a message. Debt-to-GDP ratio is used to gauge a country’s ability to repay its debts.
I
T may take as long as another decade for the Philippines to bring down its debt-to-GDP ratio to prepandemic levels, according to some economists, but others are optimistic, given the country’s strong financial position to repay its debts. Economists told the BusinessMirror that from the global financial crisis (GFC), the country also took this long before finally achieving its record-low debt-toGDP ratio of 39.6 percent in 2019. Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion recalled that during the GFC more than a decade ago, the country’s debt as a share of GDP was about 50 percent, almost the
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Strong financial position
ASUNCION: “I don’t want to be pessimistic, but, looking at this historical evidence, it might take us about 10-11 years before we can return to a pre-pandemic ratio.”
OPLAS: “I am leaning on the optimistic side, but of course the debt will not yet stop. Election time is coming and I see politicians exploiting the situation, so tataas pa ’yan.”
same level the country is in right now due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Philippines ended 2020 with a 14-year-high debt-to-GDP ratio of 54.5 percent, posting out-
standing debt of P9.795 trillion. The government even expects this to rise to 57.8 percent this year and 58.5 percent next year, though still lower than the 60 percent internationally
HOWEVER, Asuncion believes the government is in a strong financial position to repay its debts, adding that there is still a possibility that the country may be able to bring back the pre-pandemic level faster than he expected. “It may be faster and it may depend on how the next adminSee “GDP,” A2
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Friday, March 19, 2021 Vol. 16 No. 159
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 24 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
PALACE GETS DRAFT OF NAT’L EMERGENCY DECLARATION ON ASF By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
T
HE Department of Agriculture (DA) has submitted to President Duterte its draft proclamation declaring a state of national emergency to prevent the further spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) in the country. Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar submitted the draft to Duterte on March 17, based on a copy of the memorandum released to the media on Thursday. In his memorandum, Dar explained that the ASF, a severe and fatal pig disease, has already spread to 12 regions, 40 provinces, 466 cities and municipalities and 2,425 barangays nationwide to date. “Over 3 million heads of pig have been lost due to the disease, causing a contraction in pork supply and an unprecedented increase in the price of basic agricultural commodities,” Dar said. Dar said the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Food and Agrarian Reform had passed a resolution urging the DA to recommend to the chief executive the declaration of a state of emergency due to ASF. DAR: “Over 3 million heads of pig have been “In view of the above, lost due to the disease, causing a contraction we respectfully attach a draft in pork supply and an unprecedented
PEOPLE wearing face masks and face shields to protect themselves against the coronavirus wait outside a grocery store in Cainta, Rizal, as retailers, in compliance with health protocols, implement social distancing by limiting the number of customers in their stores at any one time. The surge in new, active Covid-19 cases has prompted tighter protocols amid fears the much-needed economic recovery may falter. BERNARD TESTA
B
By Bianca Cuaresma
ANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno announced on Thursday that the Central Bank has reviewed and revised upward its balance of payments (BoP) projection on the back of optimism for prospects in 2021. Continued on A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 48.6580
increase in the price of basic agricultural commodities.” BERNARD TESTA
See “ASF,” A2
RSA: No quick recovery from ‘worst crisis’ ever By Lenie Lectura
T
HE slack in power and fuel demand has persisted in the first two months of the year as the country continues to suffer from the worst crisis ever, businessman Ramon S. Ang said on Thursday.
“I don’t think 2021 will be a good year. Business is becoming challenging because demand is shrinking. Oversupply ngayon tapos mababa ang demand [There’s an oversupply now while demand is low]. This is the worst crisis in the history of the Philippines in the last 100 or 200 years,” said the San
Miguel Corp. president and CEO. Ang was referring to the country’s electricity demand. SMC Global Power Holdings Cop., the power unit of SMC, suffered losses in the first two months of the year. “Lugi kami. Ang liit ng consumption, tapos nasira pa ang Sual [We lost there. Consumption
was so low; and then our Sual plant was damaged],” he said. The second unit of the Sual power plant, which is being maintained by Team Energy, will not be operational until May 8. Sual Unit2 is capable of producing 647 megawatts. See “RSA,” A2
n JAPAN 0.4470 n UK 67.8974 n HK 6.2658 n CHINA 7.4799 n SINGAPORE 36.3092 n AUSTRALIA 37.9338 n EU 58.2971 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.9755
Source: BSP (March 18, 2021)