Ukraine war ‘ripple effects’ imperil PHL By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM
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HE Philippine economy is not fully insulated from the geopolitical fallout caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine despite its relatively weak linkages with the two feuding countries, a private economist said on Tuesday. In a research note, ING Bank senior economist Nicholas Mapa said government officials should take into account certain “ripple effects” from the disruptions arising from the war. “Government officials have moved swiftly to downplay the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe. They assert that
“Taken altogether, despite the suggestion that the Philippines is fairly insulated from the global fallout, we know that the ripple effect of the ongoing conflict reaches far wider and dives much deeper than authorities would want us to expect.”–ING Bank senior economist Nicholas Mapa the Philippines remains ‘well-insulated’ from the firefight, pointing to the ‘solid fundamentals’ of the
country and the limited exposure on the trade front,” Mapa said. “Taken altogether, despite the suggestion that the Philippines is fairly insulated from the global fallout, we know that the ripple effect of the ongoing conflict reaches far wider and dives much deeper than authorities would want us to expect,” he added. Mapa talked particularly about certain imports in the country, and the second-round effects to inflation from rising oil prices. The economist said that, while imports from the conflict area are noticeably smaller compared to the sum total of the inbound shipments, the relative importance of these shipments to the needs of
the country can not be ignored. “For example, the Philippines imports all of its wheat from abroad. The major supplier of wheat to the Philippines is the US. However taken together, imported wheat from Ukraine and Russia accounts for 20 percent of the total of this imported staple. Meanwhile, the Philippines also imports 95 percent of its fertilizer, which reminds us that even if Russian fertilizers are dwarfed by other imports such as fuel and capital goods, the Philippines will still face much expensive prices for these two important commodities regardless of their origin,” Mapa said. See “War,” A2
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HOUSE PANEL PUSHES EXCISE TAX CUT IN CRISIS n
CAN TARGETED AID KEEP PINOYS FROM POVERTY? By Cai U. Ordinario @caiordinario
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ILL the targeted subsidies to be extended to certain sectors be enough to prevent more Filipinos from falling into poverty? The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) hopes so. In a virtual AskNeda briefing on Tuesday, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said these subsidies include the P6,500 to be extended to drivers to help them cope with high oil prices. Last month, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) said the government
Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) trucks offering free rides to workers are seen on Commonwealth Avenue in Quezon City on Tuesday (March 15, 2022) morning, hours after a big gas price hike was rolled out by oil companies, forcing some public utility drivers to stay away from the road and reducing commuting options . NONOY LACZA By Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz
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@joveemarie
ITH their power of taxation and despite reservations from the government’s economic team, the Fuel Crisis Ad Hoc Committee has strongly recommended to the leadership of the House of Representatives approval of House Bill 10488 reducing excise tax on fuel products. See “Excise tax,” A2
intends to release P2.5-billion fuel subsidy for public utility vehicles while the Department of Agriculture (DA) has a P500million assistance to farmers and fisherfolk. “The most important support we can give to the people is a targeted subsidy that will cushion the impact on their family’s needs and [prevent] them [from falling] into poverty. So we will calibrate our subsidies and response to address this temporary concern,” Chua said. Chua said the recent first semester 2021 poverty numbers showed an increase, but this was See “Poverty,” A2
‘Nixing excise tax, VAT spells ₧138.8-B loss’ By Bernadette D. Nicolas
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@BNicolasBM
HE Philippine government stands to lose P138.8 billion in revenues in a year if it will heed calls by some groups to suspend both the excise tax and value-added tax (VAT) on fuel products amid soaring oil prices, the Department of Finance said. Finance Assistant Secretary and spokesperson Paola Alvarez said the department is also neither in favor of lowering the excise taxes on fuel products nor the
proposed automatic suspension of fuel excise taxes once the Dubai crude oil price reaches a certain threshold. As of Monday, the Dubai crude oil price has hit $120.34 per barrel, according to the Department of Energy. Oil prices have been increasing amid Russia-Ukraine war. “If we suspend all excise taxes overall, including VAT on all kinds of fuel, we lose P138.8 billion in one year or 0.6 percent of GDP,” Alvarez said, partly in Filipino, on Laging Handa Public Briefing.
She asserted that the two pending bills on the proposed suspension of excise taxes will result in a revenue loss for the government. The finance official said they project a P69.3-billion revenue loss if the government implements an automatic suspension of excise taxes on fuel based on Senate Bill No. 2445. Meanwhile, the government will suffer a P48.7 billion in revenue loss if a six-month fuel excise tax suspension under House Bill No. 10488 is implemented, Alvarez added.
In terms of implementing an automatic suspension of fuel excise tax, Alvarez said they estimate that P1.5 trillion in revenues will be lost until 2032, adding that this move outweighs the costs of giving a temporary fuel subsidy to those affected by the rising oil prices. “If we make the suspension of excise taxes automatic, in the long run that will have a big impact on us because our economic growth and government spending are hinged on how much we collect in
PESO exchange rates n US 52.4230 n japan 0.4436 n UK 68.1971 n HK 6.6956 n CHINA 8.2355 n singapore 38.3770 n australia 37.6817 n EU 57.3822 n SAUDI arabia 13.9739
See “VAT,” A2
Source: BSP (15 March 2022)