BusinessMirror March 06, 2022

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A broader look at today’s business n

Sunday, March 6, 2022 Vol. 17 No. 149

P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 12 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK

War in time of contagion

D

By Rory Visco

O wars and plagues go together? There were significant outbreaks of infections throughout history that may answer that question.

According to Prof. Francis Gealogo, a professor of history at the Ateneo de Manila University, the devastating influenza pandemic of 1918 came about after World War I. It reached the Philippines as soon as WWI ended when many soldiers went home, including American soldiers who were assigned to the Philippines, and those involved in the war that engaged in trade with the Philippines. Many said because of the war, the influenza pandemic quickly spread throughout the world and as they say, diseases spread faster if there are wars or any form of threats. When the Europeans conquered the northern and southern portions of America, almost 90 percent of the people of “Old America” perished not only due to the war but also because of the “Old World” diseases that the Europeans brought with them like bubonic plague, syphilis, cholera and others. Prof. Gealogo said the spread

of diseases becomes faster whenever people from countries involved in wars seek refuge in other areas, which may have physical immunities but are actually disease carriers. Even wars with smaller scopes may have global effects because of the spread of disease. With wars, supply chains of essential items like food are cut off, thus starving the people of important nutrition and may eventually lead to sickness, even death. And now the world anxiously awaits what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine after the former invaded the latter more than a week ago.

Implications

DR. ANTONIO LA VIÑA: “In an existential crisis like this, especially if it escalates into a tension with China where we have to make hard choices with our political alliances, it is important to have a true national unity government that can address these worstcase scenarios.” TONYLAVINA.COM

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 51.4700

THE crisis in Ukraine has immediate consequences on the Philippines, Dr. Antonio La Viña, UP Professorial Lecturer of Constitutional Law and former dean of the Ateneo School of Government, said in his presentation “War and Crisis in the Ukraine: Implications for the Philippines” during Episode 89 of the “Stop Covid Deaths” webinar series. The series is being organized by the University of the Philippines in partnership with UP Manila NIH National Telehealth Center and the UP Philippine General Hospital. Episode 89 has the theme, “Giyera sa Panahon ng Pandemya: Apektado ba tayo?,”

BREAKERMAXIMUS | DREAMSTIME.COM

Assessing what the PHL could expect amid the raging Russia-Ukraine conflict, experts recall lessons of previous wars and pandemics. There are 300 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in Ukraine who may be harmed as Russia bombards Ukrainian cities. Some have been evacuated by the Department of Foreign Affairs. Besides the OFWs on the ground, some 200 Filipino seafarers were stuck, as of Thursday, in foreign vessels docked in five Ukrainian ports when the Russian invasion began, said a report by the BusinessMirror. Even OFWs in Europe are worried of a refugee crisis. “Of course, there will be an impact on job opportunities, even in the treatment of OFWs,” he said. Here in the Philippines, La Viña said the immediate impact would be on energy, oil and gas prices, even in prices of flour and bread. Ukraine is a powerhouse agricultural country, he said, a global producer of wheat and corn where the war will have an effect on production and even create a glut in supply, including the supply chain for Covid-19 vaccines, and then on overall inflation. “These effects can be felt in a few weeks or so and may soon get worse,” La Viña added. But much worrisome for him, La Viña said, are some scenarios that he sees may happen in the medium term. He sees a collapse of global cooperation and institutions such as the United Nations, the World Health Organization

(WHO) as they are also affected by this kind of tension. “Russia also has many allies and this might create a stalemate in many decisions.” Climate-change action may also be affected since time and other positive gains may be lost because global attention may shift on the war instead. Economically, there may also be an impact on trade such as food and minerals, finance since the banking sector may also be affected, and also tourism, plus the rise of war crimes since many people may perish. But what also worries La Viña more is the fact that what Russia did—and if it gets away with it— may help make China feel more emboldened to do the same thing in the South China Sea, especially on the West Philippine Sea issue, and even Taiwan, an emotional issue for China, he said. “We need to monitor this since there are many security issues if this escalates, and also concern for OFWs in Taiwan.”

Priorities and opportunities

SO, what should be the Philippines’ priorities to prepare for the scenarios mentioned? He believes the country should take a deeper look at its needs. “I think it’s important for us to look at what we can do in terms of diplomacy, our relationships with certain institutions like our issues with Covid-19, where we deal with organizations like the

WHO in terms of our multilateral and bilateral cooperation in terms of the vaccines and treatments. There is a need to address and anticipate any problems that may arise and develop alternatives.” La Viña said the country also needs to understand the lessons in history, specifically the pandemic after World War I. “I think the most important part of learning from history there is that the pandemic doesn’t stop even if there’s a war, that it can even become a driver for even worse things to happen since Russia and Ukraine have a significant number of Covid-19 cases, which may escalate and spread to other areas when a refugee crisis happens.” However, La Viña also sees a silver lining to things happening now, which he said will test the kind of leadership, both today and after the elections. It is important, he said, to demand from Philippine leaders the ability to think strategically, be disciplined and listen to experts to make the right decisions for the country to address the scenarios and consequences. “And it starts even with the current President. In an existential crisis like this, especially if it escalates into a tension with China where we have to make hard choices with our political alliances, it is important to have a true national unity government that can address these worstcase scenarios.”

n JAPAN 0.4458 n UK 68.7330 n HK 6.5854 n CHINA 8.1430 n SINGAPORE 37.9516 n AUSTRALIA 37.7224 n EU 56.9670 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.7188

Source: BSP (March 4, 2022)


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