Growth won’t slow after polls–think tank By Cai U. Ordinario
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@caiordinario
HILIPPINE economic growth is not expected to slow—unless inflation breaches 4 percent—even after the elections this year because of the momentum provided by the substantial jobs creation in December, according to First Metro Investment Corp.-University of Asia and the Pacific (FMIC-UA&P) Capital Markets Research. In its latest Market Call report, the local think tank said even with the expected slowdown of consumption after the elections, the economy is still poised to register a growth of 6 to 7 percent this year, faster than the 5.6 percent posted last year. However, FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research said inflation of above 4
percent fueled by high oil prices could prevent the government from attaining its growth targets this year. “Should crude oil prices remain longer at elevated levels, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC] maintained their monthly output reduction of 400,000 barrels/day levels, these may challenge our safe 3.7-percent full-year inflation forecast,” the think tank said. “A return to above-4 percent inflation, however, could keep growth below government target.” The primary driver of the economy, especially in the first quarter of the year, are the 797,000 jobs in December which brought the total fourth-quarter gain in jobs to 2.7 million. The jobs created in the last quarter of the year, the think tank said, was the main factor behind the
7.7-percent growth in GDP. This has also helped increase total employment to 46.3 million. This is the reason FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research said the Omicron variant of Covid-19 will not be able to dampen the country’s growth prospects. The think tank said growth will still be robust even if there was a surge in Covid-19 cases in January. “We do not think that the spike in Covid-19 Omicron variant cases, and corresponding stricter lockdown for three weeks in January would prove sufficient to retard the growth momentum established in the second half of 2021,” the think tank said. “We have observed lax enforcement of the lockdowns after a few days, and firms seemed less fazed by the renewed restrictions. Besides, the scientific evidence appears that the
Omicron variant, while more contagious, appears much less lethal, and less demanding on hospital services,” it added. FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research also believes the elections will not be a factor in slowing the government’s big-ticket projects. In fact, the think tank believed construction will re-emerge as a key growth driver for the economy. It also said the manufacturing sector will likely continue to grow in the first semester of the year, despite the usual slowdown in January after the Christmas holidays. Further, the think tank said, the passage of the amendments to the definition of public utilities and the lowering of the investment required for retail firms could increase foreign investments in the country this year.
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PHL’S FEB PMI UP TO 52.8 ON EASED COVID CURBS
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HE easing of mobility restrictions paved the way for higher manufacturing output growth last month, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said. The latest IHS Markit report noted that the country’s purchasing manager’s index (PMI) soared to a high of 52.8 in February, an improvement from 50 the previous month, and also the highest since December 2018. A country’s PMI determ ines t he hea lt h of its manufacturing sector and is calculated as a weighted average of five individual subcomponents. Readings below 50 show deterioration
SAN Juan City Mayor Francis Zamora leads the inspection of a tricycle terminal in Bagong Plaza as the government lowers the Covid alert status to Level 1 in Metro Manila and 38 areas starting March 1. Tricycles are now allowed to ferry three passengers at a time, as opposed to a single passenger in the past one and a half year, severely limiting drivers’ income in order to enforce health protocols. BERNARD TESTA By Bernadette D. Nicolas
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@BNicolasBM
HE national government capped 2021 with a new recordhigh budget deficit of P1.67 trillion, as the government continued to spend more for its Covid-19 initiatives, including vaccine procurement and support for the lending assistance programs of government financial institutions. See “Budget,” A2
in the industry while readings above the 50 threshold signal growth in the manufacturing sector. “The climb in the country’s PMI in February is a result of the consistent and sustained efforts, together with the continued cooperation of our countrymen, in working towards the recovery of our economy. Last month’s performance is an indication of the sector’s solid growth in output, new orders, and exports, thanks to easing of mobility curbs as the Omicron surge fades,” Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said. See “PMI,” A2
BSP seen to keep key rates at 2% in first half By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad @Tyronepiad
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HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is likely to keep policy rates at 2 percent in the first half given the current domestic liquidity level, according to First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC) and University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P). In their “The Market Call: Capital Markets Research” February issue, the think tanks are expecting the same overnight reverse repurchase facility in the near term. “With M3 [domestic liquidity]
growth still at a single-digit pace and a bit stuck around 8 percent year-on-year, and the economy just showing more signs of a robust recovery, we think BSP will keep policy rates in H1 [first half] despite a likely 50 bps [basis points] uptick in US Fed’s benchmark rate for the same period,” they explained. Latest data from BSP showed that domestic liquidity rose by 9.8 percent year-on-year to P15.3 trillion in January. Month-on-month growth settled at 2.8 percent. In a policy meeting last month, the Monetary Board (MB) kept the interest rate on the BSP’s
overnight reverse repurchase facility at 2 percent. The interest rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were likewise maintained at 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno earlier said the MB observed that the domestic economic recovery may have gained traction, but uncertainty still lingers due to the potential emergence of new Covid-19 variants. “Elevated global commodity prices, heightened geopolitical tensions, and the uneven pace
of vaccinations across countries could dampen the outlook for global economic recovery,” he said. “On balance, the Monetary Board deems it prudent to maintain the BSP’s accommodative policy stance given a manageable inflation environment and emerging uncertainty surrounding domestic and global growth prospects,” Diokno continued. Meanwhi le, t he FMIC and UA&P study said that inflation may be manageable for most of this year.
PESO exchange rates n US 51.3850 n japan 0.4468 n UK 68.9741 n HK 6.5761 n CHINA 8.1434 n singapore 37.9337 n australia 37.3158 n EU 57.6694 n SAUDI arabia 13.6968
See “BSP,” A2
Source: BSP (1 March 2022)