Businessmirror june 11, 2016

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A broader look at today’s business n

Saturday, June 11, 2016 Vol. 11 No. 245

External environment may prove to be more volatile for incoming President

INSIDE

Why oil prices and power rates keep on rising Database

Cecilio T. Arillo Conclusion

Epira and more problems

A

FTER the May 2001 senatorial election, President Gloria MacapagalArroyo pushed the passage of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (Epira), offering several reasons to convince Congress to pass the law. Among them was that the passage of the law was necessary for the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to release a loan of $950 million to the country, and that the enactment of Epira would mean cheaper electricity. She boasted that electric power rates would immediately go down by P0.30 per kilowatt-hour, as soon as Congress passed the measure. To stress her point, the President vowed to veto the bill if it will not lower power rates. Continued on A4

Tougher times ahead under Duterte admin By Mia Rosienna Mallari

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@MiaRosienna

he incoming administration under President-elect Rodrigo R. Duterte may not be as fortunate as its predecessor, as the likelihood of another recession looms in the years ahead, according to latest macroeconomic readings by the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI).

Emilio S Neri Jr., lead economist at BPI, believes the external environment during the term of incoming President Duterte should prove volatile, based on global economic trends. The probability of recession in the United States in 2017 has increased significantly, according to Neri. “Even the likes of China and Europe are facing challenges that are much difficult [compared to] the last

three years,” Neri said. He noted President Aquino was chief executive shortly after the 2008 global financial crisis that the Philippines managed to overcome with resilience, a feat that may not be repeated under Duterte. The economist also said it may be better for the central bank to begin buying more dollars and boost its foreigncurrency reserves now, while it See “Duterte admin,” A2

cleanup process before the hallowed place is thrust another time unto the consciousness of millions of Filipinos observing the country’s birth as a nation many years ago. It is sad that at the recently completed national elections, some of us would rather go back to when our fundamental rights as free and independent people was mocked by the authority of a repressive chief executive. NONIE REYES

Diokno to speed up spending, eyes VAT hike

I

and Luisa M. Lacson, HFL

Even the likes of China and Europe are facing challenges that are much difficult [compared to] the last three years.”—Neri

banner activity In preparation for the 118th Independence Day rites set this Sunday, workers at the Emilio Aguinaldo Shrine in Kawit, Cavite, complete the

@ davecaga

Dear Lord, Your resurrection is the end-all and be-all of our Christian faith. It marks our resurrection, too. And if we have been raised with You, we must seek what is above, where You are seated at the right hand of God. It is time, then, to leave the grave of our sins and live in the splendor and freedom of the new life, which you have earned for us. May the image of the Risen Christ be imprinted in all of us, sinners, who are converted. We thank You for having made You share in the transforming effects of Your resurrection even in this life. Amen! Word & Life, Fr. Sal Putzu, SDB

US push on China factories seen as prelude to trade clash

A worker repairs the ground at a container port in Qingdao in eastern China’s Shandong province on Wednesday. ap

C

hina’s pledge to reduce overcapacity in its steel industry has eased tension with the United States, but probably won’t be enough to head off a trade clash between the world’s two biggest economies over whether the Chinese have truly embraced market forces. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew has been pressing China in recent months on the issue of its excess capacity, arguing in the past week that it has distorted global markets for steel and aluminum, and may have a “corrosive” effect on the country’s growth. Lew’s arguments echo those made by US steel and aluminum makers, who say state-supported Chinese producers are feeding a global glut of the commodities. What Lew didn’t mention when he raised this issue at bilateral talks in Beijing this week: His statements are a possible prelude to denying China the prize of recognition as a “market economy” after a 15-year wait—a designation that would hamper America’s ability to levy antidumping duties on Chinese steelmakers. “It’s a very high-profile issue,” said Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who served as a Treasury official in the 1970s. Chinese officials “regard it as an insult that they’re treated as a nonmarket economy.” When China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the terms allowed other countries to ignore China’s pricing data when deciding whether Chinese steel was being “dumped” in foreign markets at below-market prices. But that provision expires in December on the 15-year anniversary of the WTO agreement, and China has argued that other countries must recognize it as a market economy at that time. US manufacturers oppose such recognition. See “US,” A2

By David Cagahastian

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ncoming Budget Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno is expected to speed up infrastructure spending for the next administration, eyeing additional funds from value-added tax (VAT) adjustment. “My personal position is that it’s better to tax consumption than income, for as long as food, in its original state ,is exempted from VAT. It is in this sense that our VAT system is slightly progressive, the burden is heavier on the rich. But this is the call of the incoming finance secretary,” Diokno told the BusinessMirror. Although he clarified that the Executive branch’s proposal for tax reform would be up to the incoming finance chief, Diokno would be part of the economic-policy team of Presidentelect Rodrigo R. Duterte, who earlier asked him to head the Department of

PESO exchange rates n US 45.9170

My personal position is that it’s better to tax consumption than income, for as long as food, in its original state, is exempted from VAT.”—Diokno

Budget and Management (DBM). The University of the Philippines professor is known to be averse to underspending, and had earlier alleged the Aquino administration underspent at least P1 trillion in the past six years.

Government underspending in 2014 was the reason behind the low GDP growth of 6.1 percent in 2014, below the revised target range of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent. The proposed increase in the VAT is being floated by both the economic team formed by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III and by Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima as part of the tax-reform package that will supposedly ease the tax burden on those earning up to P1 million in annual gross income. Under Purisima’s tax-reform study, to be turned over to the new administration, the main component of the tax reform is the exemption from income tax of the first P1-million annual salary of every individual wage earner, which will cost the government some P151 billion to P215 billion in foregone revenues. Purisima’s proposal will also make See “Diokno,” A2

Economists see better export figures in Sept By Cai U. Ordinario

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@cuo_bm

espite the continuous slide in Philippine export earnings, economists remain sanguine there’s room for improvement. On Friday the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said export earnings posted a contraction of 4.1 percent in April this year to $4.254 billion, from $4.434-billion recorded value in April 2015. Export receipts growth between January and April 2016 posted a 7.3-percent decrease from $18.738 billion in 2015 to $17.363 billion in the same period of 2016. “I expect exports to do better in the third and fourth quarters. There must be clear indications of economic strength in our major export markets [for this to happen],” University of Asia and the Pacific

4.1%

The contraction in export earning, from $4.434 billion in April 2015 to $4.254 billion in the same period this year (UA&P) School of Economics Dean Cid L. Terosa told the BusinessMirror. “Exporters [for their part] need to scale up, create markets, integrate and innovate,” he added. First Met ro Investment Corp.-UA&P Capital Markets Research’s Victor A. Abola said major markets, such as the United States, are expected to post better growth in the second half of 2016. Abola said the growth of the US economy will be the major determinant of export growth

n japan 0.4288 n UK 66.4006 n HK 5.9164 n CHINA 6.9878 n singapore 33.9497 n australia 34.1026 n EU 51.9689 n SAUDI arabia 12.2478

See “Economists,” A2

Source: BSP (10 June 2016 )


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