Persisting logistics crunch squeezes supply By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
T
@jearcalas
HE Philippines’s food supply continues to reel from persisting global logistics problems, such as lack of vessels and port congestion, forcing delayed arrivals of certain commodities such as french fries, cheese curd and even chicken leg quarters (CLQ). Cold Chain Association of the Philippines (CCAP) President Anthony S. Dizon said the absence of certain commodities in the domestic market is not caused by supply shortages but by the longstanding global logistical crunch borne out of the Covid-19 pandemic worsened by the UkraineRussia conflict. “There are no supply constraints
from our sources of french fries and even cheese curd. The problem is purely logistics,” Dizon told the BusinessMirror. “Shipping lines are still not able to streamline their operations to various disruptions. Supply lines have been constricted because of political disturbances globally,” he added. Citing estimates from shipping industry players, Dizon said freight costs have gone up this year by 10 times compared to last year’s average quotations. Dizon explained that food importers are still enduring a lack of shipping vessels and longer transit times due to congestion in key trading ports abroad. “ There is no direct shipping line from the United States or
Europe to Manila. We have to transship and use feeder outs, either in Hong Kong, which is in China, or in Singapore,” he said.
US port congestion
A nother log istics industr y source confirmed to the BusinessMirror that US food exporters continue to wait for weeks for an available vessel due to worsening port congestion. China’s zero Covid-19 policy continues to shock supply chains as the country imposes strict lockdowns even after confirming few cases within a given city or area. An S&P Global Commodity Insights report last month pointed out that the port congestion situation in both the US, particularly in the West Coast, and China
continue to worsen as container demand continues to exceed current global capacity. In terms of imported chicken CLQ supply, Dizon explained that the country might be slightly affected by the impact of bird flu on US poultry farms. Dizon also pointed out that recent dressed chicken inventory reading of about 21,400 metric tons (MT) is quite “thin” relative to previous stock levels that were above 30,000 MT to close to 40,000 MT. But Meat Importers and Traders Association (Mita) spokesperson Paolo Pacis told the BusinessMirror that the country’s pork and chicken supply, particularly See “Logistics,” A2
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Wednesday, June 8, 2022 Vol. 17 No. 243
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 20 pages | 7 days a week
SLOWING POVERTY WAR SEEN ON 5.4% INFLATION n
By Cai U. Ordinario
BSP expected 5+% inflation, but watching risks ahead
@caiordinario
R
ISING consumer pr ices would make it more challenging for the incoming administration to significantly reduce the number of poor Filipinos, according to local economists. On Tuesday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that inflation increased to 5.4 percent in May 2022, a 37-month high. Inflation in May was the highest since November 2018 when inflation reached 6.1 percent. Based on PSA data, the higher inflation was caused by price surges in food, transportation, and sin products. In May 2021, inflation was at 4.1 percent and was at 4.9 percent in April 2022. “The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the global supply chain and elevated commodity prices, particularly for fuel. We have seen how a single crisis can set us back, so the Duterte administration has pursued both short- and long-term interventions to increase the resilience of our domestic economy against external shocks,” Neda chief Karl Kendrick Chua said. Inflation is only bound to increase, especially in light of the estimates made by Department of Agriculture (DA) Undersecretary for Planning Fermin Adriano that rice prices could increase by at least P4 to P6 per kilo in light of the Russia-Ukraine war and the shipping crisis. (Story here: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/06/06/ higher-rice-production-costsseen-to-spur-%e2%82%a76-kilo-price-hike/)
By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM
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MAGICAL PLACE This dragon fruit plantation near the foot of Mount Banahaw has emerged as one of several showcase agrotourism farms in Dolores, Quezon. The Department of Tourism’s Calabarzon office is moving to draw attention to the region’s farm tourism sites with their vaunted farm-to-table dining experiences, as it recently rolled out its culinary circuits caravan. The farm tourism establishments are touted as safe alternatives to usually crowded tourist spots because of their vast open spaces, besides the healthy food. JOEL C. PAREDES
BUDGET DEFICIT MAY DECLINE TO 3.2% OF GDP BY ‘25 By Bernadette D. Nicolas @BNicolasBM
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HE Department of Finance (DOF) expects the country’s budget deficit by 2025 to go down further to around 3.2 percent of GDP—near the prepandemic deficit of 3.4 percent—if the government pushes through with fiscal consolidation and generates additional revenue of P250 billion a year. In an economic bulletin on the national government’s debt
stock as of end-April, Finance Chief Economist and former Undersecretary Gil Beltran said on Tuesday that narrowing budget deficit through fiscal consolidation entails shoring up revenues and cutting non-priority expenditures without sacrificing infrastructure spending. “Absent new tax measures and further cuts in spending, the latest baseline scenario projects the deficit reaching 4.1 percent of GDP by 2025, down from 2021’s 8.6 percent.
Mobilizing an additional P250 billion a year will cut further the deficit so as to reach around 3.2 percent by 2025, a figure comparable to the prepandemic deficit of 3.4 percent,” Beltran said. For this year, the DBCC expects the budget deficit-to-GDP to start tapering down to 7.6 percent as revenue collections are expected to grow faster than its expenditures. Budget deficit occurs when expenditures exceed revenues. To recall, budget deficit as a share of the
economy last year soared to a recordhigh of 8.61 percent. Beltran said restoring fiscal health and building up reserves is best done while the economic weather is still good, pointing out that the country has “higher odds” of achieving the growth targets set by the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) of between 7 and 8 percent this year and 6 and
HE rising prices of consumer goods in the country warrant “close monitoring” after hitting above 5 percent in May, as such could still potentially rise in the coming months due to various local and international economic developments. In a statement sent to reporters after the announcement of the country’s 5.4 percent inflation print in May, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno said while the number is “consistent” with its assessment for the month, they will continue to track emerging developments on prices in the country, especially as the so-called “second round effects” have already been seen in the economy. “The inflation path continues to be driven primarily by supplyside factors amid volatile global commodity prices. Supply chain disruptions could also contribute to inf lationary pressures, and thus warrant closer monitoring to enable timely intervention to arrest emergence of further secondround effects,” Diokno said. “The BSP will continue to review emerging price developments
See “GDP,” A2
See “Inflation,” A2
PESO exchange rates
See “BSP,” A2
n US 52.9160 n japan 0.4012 n UK 66.3249 n HK 6.7455 n CHINA 7.9521 n singapore 38.4480 n australia 38.0625 n EU 56.5937 n SAUDI arabia 14.1079
Source: BSP (7 June 2022)