Businessmirror July 19, 2019

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LACKLUSTER GLOBAL TRADE TO PULL DOWN PHL GROWTH TO 6.2%–ADB By Cai U. Ordinario

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ACKLUSTER global trade will likely pull down the country’s economic growth this year to 6.2 percent, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In its Asian Development Outlook Supplement (ADOS), ADB revised downward its forecast for the Philippines’s 2019 full-year GDP and inflation rates. GDP growth forecast this year was cut from 6.4 percent, while inflation is expected to further

slow to 3 percent from the initial forecast of 3.8 percent. “Growth in exports of goods and services also slowed as a result of lackluster global trade and economic activity, and the downturn in the electronics cycle. These effects were partly offset by higher household consumption and private investment,” ADB said. National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Rosemarie G. Edillon told BusinessMirror that the lower forecast of ADB took external risks into consideration.

While conceding there are external risks, Edillon said these have already been considered in the government’s forecasts. She maintained that growth will still be within the 6 to 7 percent target. “They considered the external environment. It’s really very challenging. The external environment is very challenging. But for us this has already been considered,” Edillon said. ADB said, however, that its GDP growth and inflation forecast for 2020 has remained unchanged at 6.4 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. See “ADB,” A2

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Friday, July 19, 2019 Vol. 14 No. 282

DBCC slashes inflation, exports outlook for ’19 T By Bernadette D. Nicolas

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HE easing of commodity prices, especially rice due to the implementation of the rice trade liberalization law in March, has prompted the interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) to revise downward its inflation forecast for the year.

The DBCC on Thursday announced the revisions it made in the country’s macroeconomic assumptions following its 176th meeting. Officials told reporters in a news briefing that the 2019 inflation forecast has been adjusted

to a range of 2.7 percent to 3.5 percent, from the previous 3 percent to 4 percent. “The inflation rate assumption for 2019 is revised downward to the range of 2.7 percent to 3.5 percent due to the government’s

decisive steps to stabilize the general price level,” Department of Budget and Management OIC Janet B. Abuel said. “These [steps] include the full implementation of the presidential directives issued last year

to increase food supply and the passage of the Rice Liberalization Act, which opened up the rice sector and helped bring rice prices down,” Abuel added. The DBCC, however, retained its inflation assumption of 2 percent to 4 percent for 2020 to 2022. The DBCC also adjusted its foreign-exchange rate assumption for 2019 to P51-P53 against the United States dollar, from the previous P52 to P55, as it expects the peso to appreciate with the easing of inflationary pressures and positive market sentiment due to the credit-rating upgrade from Standard and Poor’s. For 2020 to 2022, the forex assumption was calibrated to P51 to P55 from the earlier forecast of P52 to P55. See “DBCC,” A2

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RIVATE-SECTOR leaders are asking President Duterte to follow through on his directive to liberalize key economic sectors, such as public services and retail trade, in his State of the Nation Address (Sona) on Monday. Business leaders polled by the BusinessMirror said they are hoping the President will instruct his Cabinet members and request lawmakers in his Sona to carry out measures that will ease, if not lift, restrictions on foreign participation. They also want Duterte to side with the business sector in its tug of war on contractualization with labor groups. Florian Gottein, executive director of the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (ECCP), said European firms are

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banking on the President to push for the liberalization of public services and retail trade, among others, as laid out in Memorandum Order (MO) 16. “ECCP looks forward to the follow-through of the President’s Memorandum Order 16 of 2017. The said MO seeks to lift or ease restrictions on foreign participation in areas such as public services, retail trade and construction of locally funded public works,” Gottein said. “Such reform will encourage further foreign investments and, consequently, spur economic growth and increase jobs,” he added. In 2017 Duterte issued MO 16 directing the National Economic and Development Authority Board to take steps to relax or eliminate foreign equity caps on eight investment areas. See “SOT bill,” A2

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‘CUT POWER COST BEFORE TWEAKING FISCAL PERKS’

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S long as the Philippines has the highest power and logistics cost in the region, the government should not tinker with the current menu of tax incentives granted to investors, economic zone firms said on Thursday. In a news briefing, Korean Chamber of Commerce Philippines President Ho-ik Lee said the government should maintain the status quo in the country’s incentives regime. Tax perks, he argued, attract investments and make locators stay here in spite of high operational cost. “Considering the high operational and logistics cost, this is not the right time to change the rules,” Lee said. He asserted that the government should only introduce changes to incentives once it is able to bring down electricity and logistics costs. For one, power rates in the Philippines are higher by as much as P7 per kilowatt-hour compared

Duterte told: Ease foreign equity limit, junk SOT bill By Elijah Felice E. Rosales

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to manufacturing rivals Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. Further, the Philippines has the highest logistics cost among four Southeast Asian economies, according to a study by the Department of Trade and Industry and the World Bank, titled “An Assessment of Logistics Services Performance of Manufacturing Firms in the Philippines.” The study reported firms operating in the country spend 27.16 percent of their sales on logistics services. Southeast Asian competitors spend much less: businesses in Thailand spend 11.11 percent of their sales on logistics, 16.3 percent in Vietnam and 21.4 percent in Indonesia. A s suc h, Sout h Korea n investors will hold off any planned investments in the Philippines until such time the government makes clear its incentives policy, Lee added. See “Power costs,” A2

DOST pitches PHL resort to science diplomacy

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OFFICE buildings cut a commanding image at the Makati business district in this file photo taken from a helicopter last January 2019. The Asian Development Bank on Thursday trimmed its economic growth forecast for the Philippines this year. The Manila-based ADB said it now expects the country’s gross domestic product to grow by 6.2 percent, lower than its previous forecast of 6.4 percent. Story at top of page, “Lackluster global trade to pull down PHL growth to 6.2%–ADB.” NONIE REYES

HE Philippines can resort to “Science Diplomacy” in order to meet its commitments in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), according to the Department of Science and Technology (DOST). Science Secretary Fortunato de la Peña told BusinessMirror that forging ties is needed mainly because of the common development challenges that countries face. De la Peña said countries like the Philippines can also benefit fromthese partnerships by tapping into the expertise of various countries. See “DOST,” A2

US 51.0090 n JAPAN 0.4725 n UK 63.4246 n HK 6.5286 n CHINA 7.4214 n SINGAPORE 37.4846 n AUSTRALIA 35.7522 n EU 57.2576 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.6013

Source: BSP (18 July 2019 )


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