BusinessMirror July 19, 2022

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Fitch arm keeps PHL growth forecast for 2022

‘Close borders, cut Omicron exposure risk’ By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM

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By Cai U. Ordinario

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Ukraine’s Zelenskyy fires state secUrity chief and prosecUtor

NTERNATIONAL think tank @caiordinario Fitch Solutions retained its growth forecast of borders the PhilipLOSING the country’s pines despite new expectations is one of the most immediate of acourses more aggressive of action tightening the govern-cycle by the Bangko Sentral nglatPilipiment must take to prevent the nas (BSP). est Covid-19 variant, Omicron, from a research noteaccordpublished reachingInPhilippine shores, on Monday, Fitch Solutions, the ing to local economists. research arm of the Fitch Group, T he new var iant is a threat, the e s p e said c i a l lthey y w still it h expect t he hol idcountry ay s to grow at 6.1 percent—unchanged coming up and more foreigners their previous forecast before beingfrom a llowed to travel to the the surprise aggressive cut by the Philippines, De La Sa lle UniverBSP earlier this month. sit y economist Mar ia Ella Oplas “Our forecast is for GDP [gross told BusinessMirror. domestic product] growth come The holidays usually bringtoin in at 6.1 percent in 2022, as a result Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) of sustained of ecowho are eager to normalization spend Christmas

nomic activities after Covid-19 restrictions have been largely eased,” said. while forwithFitch theirSolutions loved ones, “The Philippine economy’s resileigners living in temperate regions ience should provide the BSP with usually want to relax in tropical room to step up the pace of policy countries like the Philippines. This tightening.... Indeed, at 53.8, manuyear’s influx of OFWs is expected to facturing PMI readings remain well be heavier since many of them were above the 50 level and the number unable to come home for the holidays of daily flights in December 2020. are only 26 percent below 2019 levels, compared to 49 “My recommendation is to protect percent in late March,” it added. the borders. Do not allow people with The however,with is now a history ofthink traveltank, to countries forecasting more rate hikes from positive cases to enter,” Oplas said. the BSP due to the country’s high “We should be more restrictive. [We inflation rate. have to be] more protective in terms “Elevated inflation will likely of our measures.” pave for further Oplas the saidway that while thisrate willhikes, be and we now expect the BSP hike a setback to some industries, to this by a further 100 basis points over is a fair measure considering that the coming months, which will take this could help prevent placing the the policy rate to 4.25 percent country in another strict lockdown, by

end-2022,” Fitch Solutions said. Just last week, the BSP hiked its interest rate by 75 which,policy she said, the economy canbasis no points to 3.2 percent at an unschedlonger afford. uled The decision “It is meeting. better that we latest do protective was largely driven by concerns preventive measures than get exabout a sharp and posed again. We rise haveina inflation lot to lose,” the movement of the local currency. Oplas said. “We should do it now so Fitch also raised that we canSolutions open justhas before Christ-its forecast for inflation in the country, mas. If it gets contained, we can open from 5.1 percent to 5.6 percent. it again.” “Despite a recent decline, we exAteneo Center for Economic Repect oil prices to remain well above search and Development (ACERD) pre-pandemic levels the near Associate Director Serin Percival term and this will be a significant K. Peña-Reyes said closing the source ofborders upwardwould price pressure country’s be effec-in the Philippines. Meanwhile, tive but should still adhere toongothe ing lockdowns in Mainland China standards set by the World Health could exacerbate ongoing global Organization (WHO). supply chain disruptions, further What is needed, Peña-Reyes told adding to upside inflation risks,” this newspaper, is for travel restricFitch said. swiftly and tions to Solutions be put in place

Outside the country, the think tank said the aggressive tightening cycle in the US will presfor government to put be further proactive in sure on the BSP to hike aggressively, imposing them. inPrevious order to preserve financial instances when and the currency stability. country had the opportunity to imUSrestrictions Federal Reserve’s pose“The travel did notsharp prehawkish shift over the few vent the spread of Covid-19. past That was months has caused the peso to demainly because the decision was not preciate sharply against the dollar, made immediately, he said. by“Kung aroundpapatay 7 percentpatay so far this year,” [If we’re Fitch Solutions said. slow] and we get caught flat-foot“Policy risky] rate hikes by the ed, [that’s We were tooBSP reshould help to offset the depreciaactive instead of proactive before. tory impact of hot money outflows, We should learn from that,” Peñaby ensuring that real interest rate Reyes said. “It’s a delicate balancing differentials do not shift too sharpact. We need to push testing and ly in favor US,” the think tank tracing to ofbetheproperly informed added. of our decisions. Blanket/shotgun The BSPcould is scheduled meet approaches have diretoconseagain for its monetary policy setquences on the economy.” ting decision on August 18. See “Omicron,” A2

CONGRESS, DOF EYEING NATL GOVT BORROWINGS FISCAL PLANDIP POST-SONA FOR 10 MOS TO P2.75T w w

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n Tuesday, July 19,29,2022 284 Monday, November 2021Vol.Vol.1717No.No.52

risk The good, badOmicron news from spurs revival unfunded China ‘projects’

By Bernadette D. Nicolas

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@BNicolasBM

HE national government’s gross borrowings as of end-October shrank by almost 6 percent year-on-year to P2.75 trillion.

By Lorenz S. Marasigan @lorenzmarasigan

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Latest data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed that the government’s gross borrowings during the 10-month period fell by 5.99 percent from P2.92 trillion a year ago. With only two months left for this year, the latest figure is already equivalent to 89.6 percent of its P3.07-trillion borrowing program. Broken down, gross domestic borrowings from January to October settled at P2.23 trillion, down by FILL ‘ER UP Soap bottles are refilled at a booth in a bazaar put up by Plastic5.08 percent from P2.35 trillion Free Pilipinas collaborators Ecowaste Coalition, Greenpeace Philippines and Mother in 2020. Earth Foundation to celebrate #PlasticFreeJuly, as they demonstrate simple actions The bulk of the amount was PEOPLE walk past the mural of Gat Andres Bonifacio at Manila City Hall Underpass.that can be done to reduce one’s personal plastic footprint. ROY DOMINGO sourced from Fixed Rate Treasury The country will celebrate the 158th birth anniversary of Filipino revolutionary Bonds (P1.19 trillion), followed by hero Gat Andres Bonifacio on Tuesday, November 30. ROY DOMINGO short-term borrowings from BangBy Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz @joveemarie ko Sentral ng Pilipinas or BSP (P540 billion), Retail Treasury Bonds/Premyo Bonds (P463.3 billion), Retail Onshore Dollar Bonds (P80.84 billion). In the same period, there was By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas dating registry following them. This allows everyone to see also a net redemption of Treasury By its Bernadette D. Nicolasthe program authorizing the Customs @jearcalas enactment of@BNicolasBM the Coconut Farmwho are listed in registry Bills amounting to P43.94 billion. Commissioner to the accept, as a and po- if tential priorthen dis-he ers and Industry Trust Fund law. farmermitigating doesn’t seefactor, his name Net debt redemption means closure by importers of the errors and HE Bureau of Customs ORE than 3 million Rosales explained that (BOC) about shall coordinate with PCA imthere were more debts repaid comomissions in he goods declaration that collected almost P838 milcoconut farmers and 500,000 coconut farmers and mediately,” explained at a recent pared to the amount borrowed durresult in deficiency in duties and in revenues its workers are now regisworkerslion were added tothrough the PCA’s dialogue withimportations. coconut farmers. ing the period. taxes on past post-clearance audits in the first tered with the government’s reg2018 list that had about 2.5 million “On the other hand, if people Meanwhile, gross foreign borThis may also include disclosures half of this year. istry, which serves as the basis coconut farmers and farm workers. would see names on the list and rowings in the same period also on royalties and other proceeds of any Bulk of the amount or P683.96 subsequent, disposal, or use for the number of people to be The PCA’s step is to conthey thinkresale, they are not coconut contracted by 9.7 percent to P518.7 million camenext from 64 Prior Discloof the imported goods thatare accrues sureanProgram (PDP) applications covered by the utilization of the duct exclusion-inclusion profarmers or their details incorbillion from last year’s P574.4 billion. directly or indirectly to the seller. of importers, while the remaining P75-billion coconut levy fund. cedure by making the updated rect, they can report it to the PCA This was raised through global For this year, the BOC hopes to P154.01registry million was sourced folPhilippine Coconut Authority farmers’ public, providfor immediate action,” he added. bonds (P146.17 billion), program hit its adjusted full-year revenue lowing the bureau’s issuance of 121 (PCA) Deputy Administrator Roel ing everyone the opportunity to TheofPCA noted that loans (P139.98 billion), euro-detarget P733official billion set by the Audit Notice Letters, the BOC said M. Rosales said about 3.11 million check the veracity of the list, Rothe completion of the initial list nominated bonds (P121.97 billion), Cabinet-level Development Budget in a statement on Monday. Under loan the plan, Albay Rep. Joey Military andfarmers Uniformed coconut andPersonnel farm worksalesOn added. of coconut farmers registry would a project (P86.41 billion), and Coordination Committee. top of this, the BOC still expects Sarte Salceda said the government Salaries. earlier expressed conto“The collect anwill additional P13.647 billion ers have been registered with the list be posted in public be Guerrero just in time for the expected yen-denominated samurai bonds will aim to grow the real GDP by 6.5 To optimize growth, Salceda said fidence hitting the full-year goal from the enforcement of 67 demand government since it started upspaces where people can easily see rolloutofof coconut levy-funded (P24.19 billion). to 8 percent of GDP annually until that the government will identify on the back of the improved import letters arising from post-clearance See “Borrowings,” A2 volume and the windfall from oil audits conducted in 2019, 2020, and 2028, and 5 to 6 percent of GDP in key economic priorities, such as agprice hikes and weaker peso which 2021—which have become final and infrastructure spending. ricultural development, reduction higher costs for imports. the failure of the audited USlogistics 50.4600 and n transport JAPAN 0.4374 n HK for 6.4722 n CHINA 7.9013 n meant SINGAPORE 36.8968 n AUSTRALIA Salceda added that they also n of costs,n re-UK 67.2329executory He added that the BOC still has importers to contest the same. aim to reduce national governduction of energy costs, sound fisa surplus of around P40 billion rela“The BOC, under the leaderment debt-to-GDP to 52.5 percent cal management, health, education, tive to their new collection target ship of Commissioner Rey Leonby 2028. social protection, and government for this year. ardo B. Guerrero, will continue to Last year, the BOC collected Salceda, whom the House majorefficiency. plug revenue leakages and promote P645.77 billion, exceeding its compliance of importers [with] ity leadership has blessed to retain Salceda said he and Finance P616.75-billion target by 4.7 percent. Customs laws through consistent his post as House Ways and Means Secretary Benjamin Diokno had Of the amount, P1.5 billion in post-clearance audit verifications chairman, said the goals will be discussions on the country’s fiscal additional revenues was raised and investigations,” it said. institutionalized through a Joint management strategy in a recent from its post-clearance audits durUnder Customs Administrative Resolution of Congress, similar to meeting. Order No. 01-2019, PDP refers to the ing the period. the Joint Resolution 1, 2018 on the See “Congress,” A2

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P25.00 P25.00 nationwide nationwide || 22 sections sections 20 20 pages pages ||

HE cancellation of three massive railway projects due to a financial tussle between the governments of the Philippines and China may prove to be both good news and bad news for commuters and the economy. Experts interviewed by the BusinessMirror gave mixed responses, with one camp saying that the Philippines is better off without the projects, and another lamenting the wasted time and opportunity to get better funding deals. Last week, the new administration announced that the Philippines and China have canceled the loan agreements for the following projects of the Department of Transportation (DOTr): Philippine National Railway (PNR) Bicol Project, Subic-Clark Railway Project, and the first phase of the Mindanao Railway Project.

Good news and bad news

CUSTOMS NETS NEARLY P838M OVER 3-M FARMERS LISTED FOR P75-B COCO LEVY FUND FROM POST-CLEARANCE AUDITS

HE incoming 19th Congress and the Department of Finance have agreed on the need to craft a mediumterm fiscal plan and identify key economic priorities, which Congress will institutionalize in a Joint Resolution, a leader of the House of Representatives said on Monday.

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PESO EXCHANGE RATES

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 56.3690

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“THAT’S good news, actually. The benefit-cost ratios for Subic and Davao Railways are below one, meaning they are white elephants in the making. There are better uses for government’s programs as President Duterte limited funds,” Rene Santiago, a railis expected to sign the industry way expert, said in a text message. development plan in early 2022. He noted that rehabilitation Rosales said thethe PCA will not stop updating its list of coconut farmers and enjoined them to register in order to reap the benefits of the decades-long idled coconut levy fund. “We will not stop at 3.1 million. We hope that more individuals will register in our coconut farmers registry,” he said. The updating of the coconut farmers registry is mandated by Republic Act (RA) 11524 or the Coconut Industry Trust Fund Act. See “3-M farmers,” A2

of quarantine rules in PHL By Samuel P. Medenilla @sam_medenilla

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NTER NATIONA L concerns over the possible spread of the more infectious Omicron Covid-19 variant prompted the government to reimpose mandatory facility-based quarantine for all arriving passengers in the country. “That’s good news, actually. The benefitActing Presidential spokespercost ratios for Subic and Davao Railways son Karlo B. Nograles announced are below one, meaning, they are white on Sunday that the Inter-Agency elephants in the making. There are better Task Force for the Management uses for government’s limited funds.” of Emerging Infectious Diseases —Rene Santiago, railway expert (IATF) suspended the implementation of its Resolution No. 150of Bicol Railway “may be feasible, A the (s.2021), effectively imposing but not a complete replacement of sysstricter protocols for all inbound tem as contemplated by past DOTr.” travelers. For his part, Jose Regin F. RegiTo note, IATF Resolution 150dor, a research fellow the UniA had allowed fully at vaccinated versity oftravelers the Philippines-Diliman non-visa from Green List National Center for Transportation areas to enter the country withStudies, thefor cancellation of the out thesaid need facility-based three massive railway projects may quarantine as long as they secure prove to be insignificant within the negative Reverse TranscriptionMarcos administration. Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT“In the terms or PCR) testshort-to withinmedium 72 hours prior within six years, there probably will to their departure. be no significant effects since it takes “Except for countries classified quite some time for these types of as ‘Red,’ the testing and quarantine projects to be implemented,” he said. protocols for all inbound interna“China’s projects,” A2 tionalSee travelers in all ports of entry shall comply with the testing and quarantine protocols for ‘Yellow’ list countries,” Nograles said, citing the provision of IATF Resolution No. 151-A. He noted Hong Kong, which has confirmed a case of the Omicron variant, will also fall under the Yellow list countries. The suspension of the rules for “Green List” countries will be in effect from November 28, 2021 to December 15, 2021. Continued on A2

36.2807 n EU 56.5758 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4531

Source: BSP (November 26, 2021)

n JAPAN 0.4068 n UK 66.8931 n HK 7.1810 n CHINA 8.3411 n SINGAPORE 40.2636 n AUSTRALIA 38.2689 n EU 56.8481 n KOREA 0.0428 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.0129 Source: BSP (July 18, 2022)


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