BusinessMirror January 28, 2021

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Farm output in 2020 dips on ASF, storms By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas @jearcalas

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ESPITE better crop harvest, the country’s farm output in 2020 declined by 1.2 percent—the lowest in four years—due to supply disruptions caused by African swine fever (ASF) and the series of typhoons that hit the agriculture sector. The reduction in output was a turnaround from the 0.3-percent full-year growth posted by the farm sector in 2019, based on the latest report of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). Historical PSA data showed that the country’s farm output last year, valued

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at 1.789 trillion at 2018 constant prices, was the lowest in four years since the 1.796 trillion recorded in 2017. Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar earlier hoped for a “modest” 1-percent full-year 2020 farm output growth. Preliminary PSA data showed that only the crops subsector posted growth in output while the production of livestock, poultry and fisheries subsectors contracted last year. Crops production, which accounts for half of total agricultural output, grew by 1.5 percent on the back of record-high harvests of palay and corn. Unmilled rice output last year rose to an unprecedented 19.294 million metric

Thursday, January 28, 2021 Vol. 16 No. 109

tons volume, slightly eclipsing the previous record of 19.28 MMT volume in 2017. Likewise, domestic corn output rose to a record-high of 8.118 MMT, the first time that production levels breached the 8-MMT level, PSA data showed. PSA data showed that livestock output last year declined by 7.4 percent while production of poultry and fisheries subsectors contracted by 3.5 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.

Resilient, silver lining

In a statement on Wednesday, Dar said “the agriculture and fishery sector showed its resilience as it contracted by only 1.2 percent” despite what he de-

scribed as a “perfect storm” that “ravaged” the country last year. “We believe that despite the Taal Volcano eruption, Covid-19 pandemic, continued incidence of the African swine fever, and a series of strong typhoons, the country’s agriculture and fishery sector has remained pliant and resilient, facing head-on and surmounting the huge challenges last year,” he said. “Serving as the silver lining and big consolation was that the crops subsector posted a positive 1.5-percent growth, despite a string of strong typhoons that ravaged Luzon and parts of the Visayas,” he added. Continued on A2

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‘VAX ROLLOUT WILL HAVE BIGGER IMPACT ON TRADE’ n

BTr sets Feb local market borrowings at ₧140B By Bernadette D. Nicolas

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Cyclists wearing superhero costumes and calling themselves “Filipino Avengers” are seen on Wednesday (January 27, 2021) along Diokno Boulevard in Pasay City. In their free time, the group bikes around the metropolis to give joy to children who see them, and to inspire their fellow cyclists. Bicycles have emerged as a key alternative mobility for many workers during the pandemic, when mass transportation was banned in a bid to stop Covid-19 transmission. NONIE REYES

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By Cai U. Ordinario

@caiordinario

RADE tensions between the United States and China could weigh on global trade, but the rollout of vaccines in developed economies will determine the recovery of the country’s trade performance this year, according to economists.

On Wednesday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said exports contracted 10.1 percent while imports declined 23.3 percent in 2020. Total trade contracted 18.2 percent while the country’s trade deficit declined 46.3 percent last year. Former Tariff Commissioner George Manzano told the BusinessMirror that the US-China trade tensions may not escalate unless there is “provocation.” Continued on A2

PSA REVISES Q3 GDP DATA; CONTRACTION NOT AS SHARP

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HE Philippine economy’s contraction in the third quarter did not turn out as bad as earlier thought after the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) revised its GDP estimates for the July-to-September period last year.

PSA now estimates that third quarter GDP 2020 contracted 11.4 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the decline of 11.5 percent. Data showed the revision was due to improvements in the growth of Real Estate and Ownership of Dwell-

PESO exchange rates n US 48.0620

ings, Education, and Other Services. “The PSA revises the GDP estimates based on an approved revision policy, which is consistent with international standard practices on national accounts revisions,” PSA said. See “PSA,” A2

@BNicolasBM

HE Bureau of the Treasury is set to borrow P140 billion from the local debt market in February, the same volume it programmed to borrow in January. National Treasurer Rosalia V. de Leon told reporters on Wednesday they retained the volume of government securities that would be up for auction next month, but decided to offer Treasury bonds (T-bonds) with longer tenors. “[The shift to longer tenors was prompted by] very low yields and investors may have appetite for yield pick-up,” de Leon said. The Treasury will be auctioning off a total of P80 billion in Treasury bills on all Mondays of February and P60 billion in T-bonds on the first and third Tuesdays of the month, based on the schedule released by the Treasury. For each of the four auction days for T-bills, the Treasury will offer a total of P20 billion in 91-day, 182day and 364-day tenors. On the other hand, the Treasury scheduled to offer P30 billion in 10year T-bonds on February 2; and another P30 billion in 3-year T-bonds on February 16. In January, the Treasury offered 5-year and 7-year T-bonds. Finance Secretar y Carlos G. Dominguez III earlier this month said they expect the national government’s debt this year to hike to 57 percent of GDP as the country aims to borrow a total of P3.03 trillion, roughly the same amount it borrowed in 2020. Despite the upscaling of the government’s borrowing plan, Dominguez said the state will still be able to keep its debt ratio “within a sustainable threshold.” To recall, the government even ramped up its borrowing program to an all-time high—a nominal P3 trillion from P1.4 trillion originally, to cover the expected doubling of the budget deficit, as well as to fund spending requirements for its Covid-19 response. For 2020, Dominguez said they projected the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 53.5 percent, significantly higher than their prepandemic target of 40.2 percent and the country’s actual debt-to-GDP ratio in 2019, which fell at a historic low at 39.6 percent. However, Dominguez said the projected debt-to-GDP ratio of the country for last year “kept us well within the prescribed bounds of fiscal viability.”

n japan 0.4639 n UK 66.0276 n HK 6.2000 n CHINA 7.4359 n singapore 36.2842 n australia 37.2144 n EU 58.4482 n SAUDI arabia 12.8141

Source: BSP (January 27, 2021)


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