Businessmirror january 28, 2017

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T

By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas

he Year of the Rooster may not be so lucky for the local poultry sector, with its fortune clouded this year by unstable and unpredictable market demand-and-supply situation.

Poultry producers, such as those belonging to the United Broilers Raisers Association (Ubra), are cautious on the growth of the local

sector, as volatile farm-gate prices and the current oversupply production are seen to persist throughout the year with the continuous in-

flux of new players in the industry.

“The current picture of the industry right now is that there’s a tremendous competition in the level of the farm, while there’s lesser competition as you draw closer to the consumer,” Ubra President Elias Jose M. Inciong told the BusinessMirror.

“The primary problem today is the local overproduction [aspect], while the imports and smuggling are just aggravating circumstances. Unlike before, it was the other way around,” he added.

Over the past three months, data show that the locally produced

chicken has overwhelmed the volume purchased abroad in the country’s dressed-chicken inventory.

‘Speculative’ growers

Latest report from the National Meat Inspection Service (NMIS) showed the country’s chicken inventory as of January 2 has gone down by 37.59 percent to 24,238.49 metric tons (MT), from a soaring 38,842.05 MT inventory level a month ago.

However, the current chicken inventory is more than half, or 68.47 percent higher than the 14,387.06 MT level recorded a year ago.

Local poultry production comprised most of the current inventory volume reaching 15,160.96 MT. The figure is 45.69 percent lower than the overwhelming 27,913.88 MT locally produced chicken in last month’s inventory. However, it was more than double of the 6,505.69 MT locally produced chicken in the country’s inventory a year ago.

Inciong explained that “speculative” poultry growers were the reason behind the further spike in the volume of locally produced chicken in the country’s inventory before the holiday season last year.

Continued on A2

37.59%

Gelpi | Dreamstime.com

Volatilities cloud fate of chicken raisers in the Year of the Rooster The percentage drop in chicken inventory as of January 2, from 38,842.05 MT inventory level a month ago

Power-contingency measures now in place

Malampaya shutdown starts today

ower-industry stakeholders have finalized contingency plans that would address a possible supplydeficiency scenario during the 20-day shutdown of the Malampaya gas facility, which supplies 40 percent of the Manila Electric Co.’s (Meralco) requirement, that starts today, Saturday.

PESO exchange rates n US 49.6950

Shell Philippines Exploration BV (SPEx), operator of the gas facility, said the maintenance activities will cover the repair of the subsea facilities, upgrades on the platform and maintenance on the onshore plant.

“SPEx is ready,” Energy Undersecretary Felix William B. Fuentebella said in a text message, when sought for an update.

During the third coordination meeting among stakeholders—composed of the Department of Energy (DOE), the Malampaya Consortium, National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP), Meralco, Power Sec-

tor Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM), Philippine Electricity Market Corp. (PEMC), power-generation companies and other distribution utilities—it was agreed that the power plants that will be affected while maintenance work is being undertaken will run on alterative fuel, which is more expensive than gas.

Price shock

This also means that power rates will go up.

The Malampaya shutdown will start on January 28, and will last Continued on A2

8,610 MW

The NGCP’s anticipated peak-power demand expected to occur on February 9 during the Malampaya maintenance activity. From February 8 to 10, meanwhile, Luzon will be on yellow-alert notice.

n japan 0.4342 n UK 62.5561 n HK 6.4058 n CHINA 7.2212 n singapore 34.8761 n australia 37.4402 n EU 53.0643 n SAUDI arabia 13.2555

Source: BSP (27 January 2017 )

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P

By Lenie Lectura

News

BusinessMirror

A2 Saturday, January 28, 2017

www.businessmirror.com.ph

Malampaya shutdown starts today Continued from A1

until February 16.

“We’ve already conducted a series of coordination meetings, simulations, and exhausting all possible measures that we can implement to ensure supply and avoid price shocks,” Energy Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi said.

According to Meralco, generation rates may increase by P1.18 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to be reflected in March electricity bills.

With tax, the rate hike could reach P1.44 per kWh. “The estimated effect on the generation charge of the use of liquid fuel and on spot prices of plant outages is P1.18/kWh. If we include VAT [value-added tax] and other charges, the overall impact is approximately P1.44/kWh,” Meralco Utility Economics Head Lawrence Fernandez said in a text message.

The generation charge for this month stood at P3.70/kWh. The rates for February would be announced by Meralco within the first week of the month.

The gas facility fuels three gas plants: the 1,000-megawatt (MW) Santa Rita, the 500-MW San Lorenzo and the 1,200-MW Ilijan.

Fuel factor

These plants will be using alternative fuel to continue operation and generate electricity during the maintenance period. However, this is more expensive than natural gas. Natural gas as fuel only costs around P4/kWh, while replacement fuel, such as diesel, costs around P6 to P8 per kWh. “It’s an issue of a change of fuel from a cheaper one to a more expensive one,” said Fuentebella, when asked if a rate hike could be avoided.

To mitigate the anticipated spike in power rates, the DOE said a staggered payment of additional generation cost from having to use more expensive fuel is possible.

The First Gen Corp. of the Lopez Group told the DOE that all six units of Santa Rita and San Lorenzo will run using condensate, while its new Avion plant will run using liquid fuel at 76 MW to 84 MW. “Fuel delivery is delayed, but the vessel containing the fuel is already in the Philippines. Fuel analysis for specifications is being

done, and the vessel is to be cleared by customs. Santa Rita and San Lorenzo can run up to February 11 for the existing fuel stock [condensate]. They will run with diesel if the delivery did not push through,” a report from the January 23 coordination meeting stated.

The DOE assured the public that it continues to explore all possible options and remedies to maximize protection for consumers.

During the maintenance activities, some power plants are on scheduled maintenance, as well. With this, the DOE expects a total supply of 1,850 MW to be out during the period—200 MW from Calaca 1 power plant, 456 MW from Quezon Power Philippines Ltd., 600 MW from block one of Ilijan, 414 MW from San Gabriel and 180 MW out of the 600 MW of the second block of Ilijan plant.

Alert

NGCP could issue yellow or red alert warnings during the period.

A yellow alert means contingency reserve is less than the capacity of the largest synchronized unit of the grid. In Luzon this is equivalent to 647 MW, or one unit of the Sual power plant. A red alert, meanwhile, means there is severe power deficiency.

Based on the latest outlook, NGCP reported to the DOE that the highest peak demand of 8,610 MW could occur on February 9, during the maintenance activity.

The report also stated, “Luzon will be on yellow-alert notice from February 8 to 10, 2017.”

The lack of power supply would be addressed by tapping power plants owned by the government and the private sector.

For instance, in the latest report, the government-owned 470MW Malaya Thermal Power Plant in Pililla, Rizal, would be utilized on February 13 and 16 at 130 MW to avert a yellow-alert notice.

The government also considered to tap Malaya on January 27 and 30, and on February 4, 6 and 11 to avert yellow-alert notice and red-alert notice.

The Malaya plant has already conducted heat run tests for Unit 1 and Unit 2 on January 11 and 17, respectively.

According to PSALM, the declared available capacity of Malaya

‘W

e’ve already conducted a series of coordination meetings, simulations, and exhausting all possible measures that we can implement to ensure supply and avoid price shocks.”—Energy Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi is 150 MW for Unit 1 and 320 for Unit 2. On fuel inventory, it reported to the DOE that there is available 31.82 million liters, which is sufficient to run both Malaya units at registered minimum stable loadings, 130 MW each, for 18 days.

“There will be additional fuel delivery in the first week of February,” PSALM said.

Also, the Caliraya reservoir will be raised to 288.5 meters above sea level (masl) to ensure availability of four units.

NPC said, “The CBK [CalirayaBotocan-Kalayaan] confirmed to raise the level of Caliraya lake to 288.5 masl.”

Limay plant

SMC Global Power Holdings Corp., meanwhile, is willing to assist the government in providing cheaper power to be sourced from its newly built power plant in Limay, Bataan, during the 20-day shutdown of the gas facility.

“Makakatulong kami kahit during the Malampaya shutdown, kasi nag-pro-produce na ng 150 MW ang Unit 1,” SMC President Ramon S. Ang said, when asked to comment on an earlier pronouncement of the DOE that the commercial operation of the Limay plant should be done earlier.

The first 150-MW unit of the Limay circulating fluidized bed (CFB) coal facility is currently undergoing commissioning, with target commercial operation in May this year, Ang said.

The second unit, another 150 MW, is scheduled for commercial operation three months after.

Unit 1, while on commissioning phase, uses diesel, which is more expensive than coal by at least P5 per kWh. Ang said the company is will-

ing to subsidize the difference.

“Tumatakbo na ang Unit 1, pero mas mahal kasi ginagamitan ng diesel. But we will help the grid to make sure hindi magkakaroon ng shortage. Okay lang iyun, pagbibigyan na namin iyun,” he said, when asked if the company would sell it at a lower price.

SMC’s coal power plants are sold at an average of P3 per kWh. Meanwhile, the output of a plant that utilizes diesel is sold at an average of between P8 and P9 per kWh.

Power ‘import’ and ILP

For Meralco’s part, the country’s largest distribution-utility firm, has requested Panay Energy Development Corp. to deliver 70 MW starting January 28.

It also wrote to various powergeneration companies requesting for available capacity for a shortterm (20-day) contract.

Further, Meralco will tap interruptible load program (ILP) participants for the possible ILP implementation in the event that the Luzon Grid would be placed on red-alert status during the shutdown.

ILP works by calling on business customers with loads of at least 1 MW to run their own generator sets, if needed, instead of drawing power from the grid.

With the ILP, power supply from the grid that will not be consumed by participating customers will be available for use by other customers within the franchise area. Through this, the aggregate demand for power from the system will be reduced to a more manageable level, helping ensure the availability of supply.

Around 900 MW are enrolled in the program. Of which, 745.5 MW are signed participants and

132.87 MW could be tapped as potential participants that would aid the utility firm in addressing sudden power outage in its franchise area.

Meralco’s ILP had helped avoid power outages in some incidents of yellow and red alerts.

“Meralco will continue to inform its subscribers to practice efficient energy consumption,” Fernandez added.

EE&C

At the same time, Cusi said the DOE is encouraging consumers to practice effective demand-side management.

“The public should also be proactive in computing the effect of price adjustments to be provided in the simulations given by the agencies concerned for consumers to practice efficiency measures to avoid price shocks,” the energy chief said.

PEMC, operator of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), assured there would be no spike spot market prices.

PEMC President Melinda L. Ocampo said the Malampaya shutdown would not lead to a repeat of the 2013 incident, because existing mitigating measures are put in place to prevent abnormal price spikes.

“There is a threshold that will prevent higher WESM prices,” she said.

Malampaya’s last maintenance shutdown in November 2013 significantly pushed up power rates, which prompted reforms in the WESM. WESM’s primary price-cap offer was originally set at P62/kWh, but regulators lowered it to P32/kWh starting December 2013, in a bid to prevent excessive price spikes.

Besides the primary price cap, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) also ordered the implementation of a secondary cap to further protect consumers from excessive price spikes triggered by supply tightening.

Called the price-threshold mechanism, the P6.245/kWh secondary price cap kicks in the market once an average threshold of P9/kWh is reached over a 168-hour period.

The DOE has raised the possibility of further lowering the secondary price cap.

“We are reviewing how to lower the secondary price cap in the WESM with the ERC,” Fuentebella said.

Since ensuring supply in this particular situation inevitably increases power rates, the DOE continues to look for ways on how to mitigate steep increase and unwarranted market behavior to ensure utmost consumer protection.

The implementation of energy efficiency and conservation (EE&C) measures is a priority, Cusi said, since this is the most effective way to avoid price shocks.

The public may apply EE&C measures as simple as these: Reducing time of watching TV from 10 hours to nine hours, which translates to P19.80/month; setting to low electric fan from high to save P52.80/month; or even reducing an hour to usual time of ironing of clothes to save P44/month.

“The DOE assures the public that it will exhaust all possible legal options and measures to ensure supply and protect consumers from price shocks, but we cannot do it alone. That’s why we are also asking the public to remain vigilant and cooperative in managing their consumption,” Cusi said.

Volatilities cloud fate of chicken raisers in the Year of the Rooster Continued from A1

Speculative growers are suppliers selling their chickens in bulk based on the current market outlook, particularly on anticipated price increase.

“There are a lot of speculative small and medium growers in the industry at the moment. Even new players have that kind of attitude, especially during holidays, such as last Christmas and New Year,” Inciong said.

Due to the current oversupply of chicken in the local market, farm-gate price have been on a downward trend. Inciong said farm-gate prices went as much as P80 per kilogram in mid-December, however, it sharply declined back below the P60-mark after Christmas.

Price volatility

“Right now things are volatile.

There are weeks wherein the price are down and there are times it’s high,” Inciong said, adding that, as of this writing, current farm-gate prices of chicken average at P80 per kg.

“That’s why a lot of growers are nervous at the moment to load their volume,” Inciong added.

The Ubra chief noted that based on historical patterns, farm-gate prices every first quarter of the year are expected to go down due to shift in priorities of households, particularly families

focusing on educational needs and expenses.

The latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the farm-gate price for broiler meat dropped to P75.12 per kg last September, from P80.07 recorded in August 2016.

PSA data also showed that the average farm-gate price of broiler meat in January to September 2016 was P84.99/kg. During the nine-month period, broiler meat recorded its highest farm-gate price in July, hitting P91.91/kg, according to the PSA. However, in the PSA’s latest report on the Performance of Philippine Agriculture, it noted that average farm-gate price of chicken in 2016 was at P89.27 per kg.

“Prices in the poultry subsector declined by an average of 5.22 percent. Price of chicken contracted by 9.26 percent as a result of expansion in production,” the PSA said.

Despite the unstable farmgate price of chicken, the commodity’s price in the retail level has not gone down below the range of P130 to P140, based on the data from the Department of Agriculture.

Inciong said a breakeven range for the poultry sector would be P65 to P75 farm-gate price, while a favorable range would be around P68 to P80.

‘Twice 7’

The local poultry sector, which ac-

counted for 15.03 percent of the total agricultural output, grew by 1.39 percent in 2016 year-on-year.

“This was the result of the ‘twice 7’ harvesting practice of chicken farms as encouraged by high demand. Production increases in the newly opened broiler farms from San Miguel Corp. [SMC] and Bounty Fresh were noted in Western Visayas,” the PSA said.

“In Eastern Visayas there were reports of increased number of contract growers, as well as the opening of a new dressing plant in the region,” the PSA added.

The poultry sector was valued at 123.473 billion in 2016, compared to 121.776 billion in 2015.

The chicken industry alone was valued at P94.508 billion in 2016, higher than 2015’s P93.736-billion market value.

The volume of chicken produced in 2016 expanded a little to 1.67 million metric tons (MMT), from 1.66 MMT recorded volume in 2015.

Production target

Inciong noted that production for broiler chicken this year could reach as much as 1.4 billion heads, without taking into account mortality rate and other external forces coming into play.

He attributed the growth on the influx of new players and growing demand for chicken on the back of expansions of supermarkets and fast-food chains in the country.

He added that based on Ubra’s data, the country’s broiler production in 2016 reached 1.2 billion heads.

The entry of new players in the industry, continuous growth of the fast-food sector and expansion of supermarket chains have changed not only the local poultry production capacity, but market trends as well.

“Unlike before, wherein it’s either a big-size chicken that is for the wet market and smallsize ones for the supermarket, you now have different weight requirements due to market segmentation,” Inciong said.

“And unlike before, wherein the big ones are more expensive than the small ones, the price right now is dictated by the volume of supply,” he added.

The market segmentation, Inciong said, may also push growers to downgrade their production, downsizing the sizes of their chickens to cater to specific markets.

“Like in Central Luzon, it has become a light birds market. They are now supplying smaller chickens weighing around 1.25 kg to 1.3 kg,” he said.

The government bared its plan to hike poultry production by 3 percent to 4 percent annually starting this year until President Duterte steps down from office, according to the draft chapter of the Philippine Development Plan 2017 to 2022.

Miss Universe BusinessMirror

www.businessmirror.com.ph

Saturday, January 28, 2017

A3

The competition begins!

65th Miss Universe preliminary show and national costume presentation

By C. Mendez Legaspi | Photographed by Alysa Salen

t

he 65th Miss Universe preliminary show, held at the Mall of Asia Arena on Thursday night, January 26, determines who will advance to a much-coveted spot in the Top 12 during coronation day (January 29 evening in some parts of the world) on January 30 at the same venue.

Miss Dominican Republic

Miss Australia

Miss Curaçao

Miss Philippines

L eo A l mod a l for Miss Great Br it a in Ja m ie -L oee Fau l k ner and Jian Lisa l a for Miss Sier ra L eone Hawa K a ma ra.

T he preliminar y night judges were the Real Housewives of

Atlanta st a r Cy nt h i a Ba i le y ; for me r jou r n a l i s t , pu bl ic i s t and inter nat iona l market ing director Rob Goldstone; theat r ic a l , t e l e v i s ion a nd f i l m producer Francine Lefra k;

President/Executive Producer of the People’s Choice Awards Fre d Ne l son ; M i ss Un iverse 2007 from Japan R iyo Mor i; and Miss Universe 1993 from Puerto Rico Dayanara Torres.

Miss Philippines

Miss Brazil

Miss Aruba

Miss USA

Miss Vietnam

Miss Philippines

The 86 contestants wore twopiece Yamamay swimwear and evening gow ns of t heir ow n choosing. Later on, they showcased their colorful, whimsical and meaningful national costumes. The preliminar y show was hosted by reigning Miss Universe Pia Alonzo Wurtzbach and celebr it y Derek R amsay, while the national costume presentation was annotated by the funny Nick Teplitz.

The eye-catching crowd-pleasers in the swimwear round are Miss Argentina Estefania Bernal, Miss Australia Caris Tiivel, Miss Barbados shannon harris, miss brazil raissa santana, miss colombia andrea tovar, miss curacao chanelle de Lau, miss dominican republic rosalba garcias and Miss Tanzania Jihan Dimachk.

Miss Philippines Maria Mika Maxine Medina easily stood out in a satin emerald green beaded fringe number by R hett Eala amid glittery gowns or weddinglike ensembles. In the eveninggown category, the other top girls are miss aruba charlene leslie, miss jamaica isabel dalley, miss haiti raquel pelissier, miss india roshmitha harimurthy, miss the netherlands zoey ivory, miss spain noelia freire, miss turkey tansu cakir, miss ukraine alena spodynyuk, miss usa deshauna barber and the scene-stealer miss venezuela mariam habach.

The national costume competition has no bearing on the final scores, still, it presented a beautiful lesson in culture, tradition and craftsmanship. The most stupendous creations were presented by miss china li zhenying, miss france iris mittenaere, miss myanmar htet htet htun, miss indonesia kezia warouw, miss thailand chalita suansane and Miss vietnam dang thi le hang.

Fi l ipino desig ners a lso cre ated the gow ns of some contest a nts: Jea rson Demav ivas for Miss C a nad a Siera Bea rc hel l,

Miss Peru

Miss Indonesia

Miss France

OurTime BusinessMirror

A4 Saturday, January 28, 2017 • Editor: Efleda P. Campos

news@businessmirror.com.ph

A short trip to wellness at St. Michael’s in Antipolo

I

Story and photos by Efleda P. Campos | Senior Editor

HAD been worried. From February to July 2016, my blood-sugar readings had been hovering between 450 and 550. Readings for normal levels of blood-sugar range from 90 to 120.

I had been faithfully taking my medications—all prescriptions— that cost me about P15,000 each month. I also had been eating brown rice, vegetables and seafood, avoiding meat, salt and fat, as advised by my many doctors with their various specializations.

A welt has appeared on the front area of my lower left leg, and it has been spreading. I have seen pictures of diabetics with festering wounds on their lower legs, leading to amputation of their limbs.

My vision is blurring, and I have begun to express fear of becoming blind because of diabetes.

I will be turning 64 in a few days. My previous worry of hypertension soaring to killer levels disappeared after my blood pressure normalized. Dr. Cherryl Riva had adjusted the dosage of my medications for highblood pressure.

I have a supply of magnesium spray, formulated by naturopathic doctor Mary Jean Netario Cruz, to relieve my various bodily aches and pains.

Dr. MJ has helped many elderly people, and even young patients.

She has conducted medical missions with friends and fellow believers in several areas in Luzon to help people in pain. Her Facebook account is replete with posts, seeking her advice on various health concerns. Many people appear desperate.

I had been saved by the mineral on several emergency situations.

At the height of summer in

2015, I had gone home from work midafternoon one Saturday to an oven-hot home. I could not sleep that night because of the stifling heat. When I got up the next morning, I had a tremendous headache, I felt I was burning with fever, and my eyes felt like they were bulging out.

I was in great discomfort, the same helplessness I felt when I had a stroke in August 2013. That was when I remembered what Dr. MJ told me. When I felt I was having a stroke, I should spray magnesium on my pain points—my temples, my forehead, my head, my nape and my heart area.

In 20 minutes, I fell asleep. When I woke, up two hours later, my discomfort was completely gone.

Dr. MJ understood my worry.

My mother, my two older brothers and I were all diagnosed with diabetes in 1996. Mama and Manong Rufo had since passed away.

Dr. MJ told me to take time off from work, and we would use a protocol she had tried in July 2016 on Bishop Gilbert Garcera of the Diocese of Daet. The bishop is a diabetic like me.

I was on a wellness break from August 8 to 12, 2016. Dr. MJ had me stay at Saint Michael’s Retreat House in Antipolo during the days I was under her treatment.

The staff members at the retreat house were very welcoming and supportive. Veron Reyes, the house’s retired administrator, a fellow diabetic, was supposed to undergo treatment with me. However, she could not devote four days

PRIESTS’ retreat house

MIRACLE herbs serpentina (lowerleft) and holy basil

DR. MARY JEAN NETARIO-CRUZ

OLD tree

to her treatment; she is her aging mother’s caretaker.

Dr. MJ asked the kitchen crew, led by Manang Betty Dacanay, to prepare my meals the way they cooked Bishop Garcera’s during his stay at Saint Michael’s two months back. Dr. MJ encouraged me to eat raw vegetables in salad form, lightly seasoned pork and meat, grilled fish, blanched vegetables, and lightly boiled saluyot, okra, eggplants and other dinengdeng staples.

After dinner from August 8, my blood sugar registered at 461.

That night, Dr. MJ had me chew a finger of luyang dilaw (turmeric) and 10 leaves of holy basil. I drank a cup of serpentina tea, injected my 40 units of insulin and my other prescriptions before I went to bed.

Following Dr. MJ’s instruction, I tested my blood sugar when I woke up the next day.

I had to look hard at the bloodsugar monitor. Did I read it right? I

was seeing the numbers 118.

Diligently, I again masticated my “holy chew”, this time, a finger of native ginger and 10 leaves of holy basil. The concoction burned my mouth. I preferred turmeric.

Then, I drank the juice of one fresh coconut, in lieu of the leucocytes supplied by carbohydrates I no longer eat.

My evening blood-sugar reading was 276. My fasting blood sugar the next morning, August 9, was 110.

Dr. MJ said the protocol was begun by Dr. Biswaroop Roy Chowdhury of India, who follows Ayurvedic medicine. She adopted his protocol, and combined it with her magnesium treatment.

Of course, I miss my rice, noodles, pasta and other sources of carbohydrates. I have occasional headaches and get nauseous because my body is still adjusting to the absence of starch from my diet. I cannot even eat white corn, but I can eat yakon, dragon fruit, singkamas, saba.

On my third morning at Saint Michael’s, my blood sugar tested at 115 and on my last morning there, it was at 99.

Dr. MJ and I went grocery shopping on the last day of my wellness break. We bought ingredients for pechay and ampalaya fruit salad.

She taught me how to prepare my food, mostly fresh, uncooked vegetables for salad.

Six months after my wellness break, I continue to follow the food protocol suggested by Dr. MJ. She said in place of rice, noodles and pasta, I should eat vegetables as my source of starch; and eat fish, chicken and pork.

My blood-sugar level has remained within its normal range.

Blame technology, not longer life spans, for health-spending increases

By Austin Frakt

New York Times News Service

A

MERICAN life spans are rising, and as they are, healthcare spending is, too. But longevity is not contributing to the spending increase as much as you might think.

The median age in the United States will rise to about 40 by 2040, up from 37.7 today.

That’s partly because the average American lives three years longer today—reaching nearly 79 years old—than in 1995. The Cong ressiona l Budget Of f ice credits population aging for a substantial portion of its projected increase in health-care spending—from 5.5 percent of the economy today to almost 9 percent by 2046.

But research suggests that living longer, by itself, isn’t a big driver of rising health-care spending. Because the baby-boom generation is so large—members are now in their 50s to late 60s—the average age of Americans would rise even if life expectancy didn’t.

For every 100 working-age Americans today, there are about 25 Americans over 65. By 2040, there will be 37.

Older people need more health care and they spend more. Compared with the working-age population (people 19 to 64 years old), those 65 to 74 spend two times as much; those 75 to 84 spend four times as much; and those 85 and older spend six times as much. And the growth in health-care spending is faster for retirees than for younger

Americans.

The real culprit of increased spending? Technology.

Every year you age, health-care technology changes—usually for the better, but always at a higher cost. Technology change is responsible for at least one-third and as much as two-thirds of per capita health-care spending growth. After accounting for changes in income and health-care coverage, aging alone can explain only, at most, a few percentage points of spending growth—a conclusion reached by several studies.

Some health-care technology helps us live longer. The vast majority of the seven years of life expectancy gains in the latter half of the 20th century were because of better—and more costly—treatments for premature infants and cardiovascular disease, according to analysis

by Har vard health economist David Cutler and his colleagues.

But recent work led by Stanford economist Raj Chetty reminds us that factors outside the health system—like smoking rates and education levels—also influence longevity.

Just how much longer life spans boost spending depends on how many of those extra years are spent in good health versus poor health. Several studies warn that Americans will spend more of those years in poor health and with disability, which would push health spending higher.

But other analysis suggests the leading causes of death, including cancer, heart disease and stroke, are being pushed off until later in

life, giving us more years of good health. A recent study by Cutler and researchers from Harvard and the National Bureau of Economic Research found that between the early 1990s and the late 2000s, the elderly population gained more disability-free years than years with disability.

Perhaps some of the additional money we pour into the health system each year is doing some good. “Certainly we must address the problems associated with financing health care spending and health disparities,” said Michael Chernew, a Harvard health economist and a co-author on the study. “But we can take some solace in evidence that more people are living longer and better.”

These findings are consistent with other work showing that higher health-care spending by older patients has more to do with their proximity to death than with their age. One study found that hospital expenses grow 1,000 percent in the last five years of life, but increase only 30 percent from 65 years old to 80. Another study found that a majority of Americans over age 85 have no limitations to their daily activities because of health, which suggests that age is a poor marker of health and its associated costs.

A decade ago, in a study published in Health Policy, two German health economists calculated how much incorporating the effect of shifting the spending near death could reduce health-care spending projections. They took an extreme approach by assum-

POT SESSION National Folk Artist Fidel Go of Vigan, Ilocos Sur, shows candidates of the ongoing Miss Universe 2016 pageant the art of making a clay pot. MAU VICTA

ing all of the increase in health care spending as one ages is in the proximity to death (none to greater age). So imagine that instead of incurring high costs and dying at, say, 75, one lives five more years in relative health, shifting those higher costs to just before age 80. The effect, according to their study, is to reduce estimates

of health-care spending because of aging by 40 percent.

In other words, living longer doesn’t increase health-care spending so much as it delays the large amount spent near death.

Some health-care spending is associated with those intervening, relatively healthy years, just not much compared with that spent

in one’s final years.

Living longer offers many benefits. That it isn’t, by itself, a major contributor to health-care spending is a nice bonus.

Austin Frakt is a health economist with several governmental and academic affiliations. He blogs at The Incidental Economist.

BusinessMirror CYCLING

A6 Saturday, January 28, 2017

BIG CHALLENGE DOWN UNDER 7

-ELEVEN Road Bike Philippines flies down under to Australia, bringing with it the Filipino brand of worldclass cycling the team hopes to wield against a world-class field that includes Team Sky and its reigning Tour de France champion, Chris Froome.

The country’s only International Cycling Union (UCI) continental team got a rare invitation to race in the prestigious Herald Sun Tour, Australia’s oldest cycling race that started in 1953 and has since become a major UCI race, where the world’s best—including Tour de France, Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a España champions—kick off their campaigns for the season.

“We are all excited about our forthcoming rare experience. It is, indeed, a rare chance for the entire Philippine cycling community and for our national federation, PhilCycling,” 7-Eleven Road Bike Philippines Team Manager Rick Rodriguez told BM Cycling.

The race is set from February 1 to 6.

The team flies to Australia on Sunday with a full contingent, led by top rider, Southeast Asian Games gold (time trial) and bronze (road race) medalist Mark Galedo, and composed of former Asian Juniors Championship road bronze medalist Rustom Lim, Marcelo Felipe, Australian recruits Jesse Ewart, Josh Berry and Craig Evers, and Spaniard Edgar Nieto.

The opportunity to compete against Froome and Team Sky makes the campaign even more memorable and emphatic.

“The opportunity to compete against Froome—and watch him perform—is what everyone of us is looking forward to. Here’s a chance for a Filipino cyclist to beat one of the best in the world,” Rodriguez said. “Beating him in the GC [general classification] is more than enough an achievement.”

The Herald Sun Tour is a six-stage UCI ProTour race that covers a total of 642.2 kilometers. Sixteen teams are competing, all upon the invitation of the organizers. The Category 2.1 race is sponsored by Australia’s biggest newspaper.

Froome is the defending champion but his Team Sky, which strategized perfectly to bring him to the top of the podium in Paris last July, has its hands full against a tough field that includes 2015 winner Cam Meyer.

Meyer failed to defend his crown last year because his team, Dimension Data, was not invited. This time, he eyes revenge despite the favored Froome, Sky teammate Peter Kennaugh and Orica’s Damien Howson around.

Galedo brings to Australia’s road the Filipino brand of gritty and determined cycling that compensates the lack of scientific training.

Galedo won the Le Tour de Filipinas in 2014, after his successful campaign in the 2013 Myanmar Sea Games.

The 22-year-old Ewart, on the other hand, has his podium finishes also in the Le Tour de Filipinas and Tour de Singkarak, and stage victories at the Jelajah Malaysia race

in his credentials.

Rodriguez said the Herald Sun Tour will offer precious UCI points Filipino cyclists need to compile to earn berths to the Tokyo 2020 Olympics.

“We are really determined to do whatever it takes to make it possible for our cycling community to see Filipinos competing in Tokyo,” Rodriguez said.

The Herald Sun Tour will start with a prologue in Melbourne, then will head north for four stages until culminating on a circuit around Kinglake Race Director John Trevorrow told Cyclingnews that this year’s edition is the toughest in recent years.

The Herald Sun Tour is a major international race and generates significant economic impact and media exposure for the towns involved. Australia is also one of the world’s foremost cycling nations, and the success of riders such as Brad McGee, Baden Cooke, Stuart O’Grady, Robbie McEwen, Cadel Evans, Trent Lowe, Nathan Haas, Jack Bobridge, Simon Clarke and Matt Wilson has given Australian riders and events great credibility and interest globally.

Editor: Jun Lomibao | mirror_sports@yahoo.com.ph

7-Eleven Road Bike Philippines got a rare invitation to race in the prestigious Herald Sun Tour, Australia’s oldest cycling race that started in 1953 and has since become a major UCI race, where the world’s best—including Tour de France, Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a España champions—kick off their campaigns for the season.

Ramon Rafael Bonilla

MARK GALEDO brings down under the Filipino brand of gritty and determined cycling.

CYCLING QUEEN MARELLA

SETS GOAL HIGH M MARELLA SALAMAT (fourth from left) with members of the national women’s and juniors teams (from left) Coach Cesar Arturo Lobramonte, Tomas Martin Mojares, Genesis Marana, Avegail Rombaon, Irish Mae Nong and Aidan Mendoza. Nonie Reyes

ARELLA VANIA SALAMAT has a busy 2017 ahead of her.

First stop for the Philippine Cycling Queen is the Asian Cycling Championships in Bahrain from February 24 to March 3, and the Kuala Lumpur 29th Southeast Asian Games from August 19 to 31.

Both are priorities for the reigning Sea Games women’s individual time-trial champion, on whose legs Philippine cycling is relying so much upon in the same manner as Daniel Caluag pedaled his way to the men’s BMX gold

Statistics, data powering cycling revolution A

BETTER understanding of the full picture of benefits that cycling provides to individuals and society at large is helping the mission of the cycling community of realizing a more bike-friendly world.

Last December the European Cyclists’ Federation (ECF) released the study “The EU Cycling Economy’”.

The headline finding of the study is that across Europe, cycling creates €513.8 billion in benefits each year. Today in Europe, around 655,000 people work in the cycling industry. Further, the ECF argued that if cycling’s modal transport share is doubled, an additional 400,000 jobs will be created.

These compelling statistics make a convincing case for greater investment in cycling as a sport and form of everyday transport. Decisions taken by policy-makers can hamper or support an increase in cycling—and increasingly such decisions are informed by statistics and data.

Today the ECF is leading the campaign to see the European Union adopt a European Cycling Strategy. In this campaign such data is helping make the clear case for EU investment in cycling.

The International Cycling Union (UCI) is supporting the important campaign and is working with the ECF to shape the blueprint document for an EU Cycling Strategy.

“We will also actively campaign for its adoption by the EU, and we encourage all those involved in the sport of cycling to also do so,” the UCI said in a statement.

“At the UCI, we believe that developing a better understanding of the socioeconomic impact of sports cycling will help us convince public leaders to invest in cycling; helping ensure the growth of cycling in all forms,” the statement added.

“More and more citizens across the industrialized world turning to cycling, and in other parts of the world bicycle remains a tool for sustainable development. Indeed, the benefits of more cycling are clear: reduced pollution, improved public health, less congestion and more.” UCI News

THE mission is to realize a more bike-friendly world. UCI PHOTO

medal in the Incheon 2014 Asian Games.

“I am really excited to race against the best riders in Asia. It’s a difficult race, but we are really motivated to perform well,” Salamat, 23, said.

Salamat is training in Pangasinan, where his father traces his roots in Bugallon town, along with her teammate in the women’s team, Avegail Rombaon, and junior cyclists Irish Mae Nong, Aidan Mendoz, Tomas Martin Mojares and Genesis Marana, who are seeing action in the 24th Asian Road Junior Championships Bahrain is hosting simultaneously with the elite races.

Salamat, however, was disheartened after the Malaysian organizers excluded the women’s ITT from its cycling program in August. Sea Games hosts have a bad habit of dropping events—even though they are on the Olympic program—where they are not bound to win medals.

“I am sad because I will not be able to defend my title in Malaysia,” Salamat told BM Cycling. “But I’m willing to train for the other events. I must move forward.”

The promising bowler-turned-cyclist pulled off a Sea Games surprise when she won the ITT gold medal. She clocked 44 minutes and 46.38 seconds, beating by almost 46 seconds favored Thailand bet Chanpeng Nontasin in the 30-kilometer race.

But in Bahrain, Salamat gets the chance to test her legs against the clock on a course that is expected to be flat and hot.

A bronze medalist in road of last year’s World University Cycling Championships in Tagaytay City, Salamat said she always cautions herself about complacency.

“I guess the chances are high, but I don’t want to be complacent,” she said. “Because there will always be good and better athletes.

I have to do my best all the time.”

The national team is almost done with its monthlong training in Pangasinan, with the Salamat residence in Bugallon serving as the cyclists’ quarters.

Pangasinan’s terrain, women’s coach Cesar Lobramonte said, mimics what they would be expecting in Bahrain—almost flat roads and blistering hot winds.

Salamat has become the toast of women’s cycling in the country after Baby Marites Bitbit, who won the road race gold in the 2007 Nakhon Ratchasima Sea Games.

Ramon Rafael Bonilla

Editor: Jun Lomibao | mirror_sports@yahoo.com.ph

Sports BusinessMirror

PHOTO-BOMBING SHARK

TEN-YEAR-OLD Eden Hasson rides a wave unaware of the danger beneath the water. AP

BLOEMEN GOLF REGISTRATION ON

R

EGISTRATION is in final swing for the 25th Br. Alphosus Bloemen Golf Cup/Drive For A Cause set for January 31 at the West Course of the Wack Wack Golf and Country Club.

Organized by the La Salle Greenhills Alumni Association (LSGHAA), the annual fund-raising project will benefit the LSGH Adult Night High School Scholarship Fund, the educational program that gives La Salle quality schooling to less-fortunate adults.

Handsome trophies, raffle and door prizes, fun awards and giveaways await all participants in Class A, B, C, Seniors, Open, Ladies, Friends/Guests Divisions and Batch Team Championship for Alumni of all La Salle Schools.

The entry fee of P3,800 is inclusive of green fee, lunch buffet, giveaways, raffle and door prizes. Beer will be provided by San Miguel, while Emperador Distillers will provide Tres Cepas Light Brandy and Carlo Rossi wines.

A Frederique Constant timepiece, courtesy of Timeline, is at stake for anyone who can score a hole-in-one. If no one makes an ace, the watch will be

raffled as the grand prize.

The event is sponsored by Globe Telecom, Philippine Veterans Bank, Manila Electric Co., Alveo Land, United Laboratories Inc., Genasia Technika, MRT Development Corp., PLDT Alpha Enterprise, Philippine Accident and Managers Inc., Paragon Brokerage, Spes Construction, Fernandina 88 Suites, Pepero, Anagen, Megafiber, Camp John Hay Development Corp. and Philex Mining, with the BusinessMirror as media partner.

For further details, call 725-720, 721-2729 or 726-6339 and ask for Marc Miranda or Sol Mendoza, or e-mail alumni@lsgh.edu.ph.

Lance Agcaoili

Had Jamaica been running a no-excuses antidoping system for the last 10 to 15 years, no athlete would’ve felt secure pushing the envelope with banned stimulants or any other such substance.

I

A

USAIN BOLT can’t outrun Jamaica’s doping problem.

C

ANBERRA—A 10-year-old surfer has had a close encounter with a photo-bombing shark that shared a wave with him off an Australian beach.

Chris Hasson said on Thursday that he was taking photos of his son Eden riding a wave off Samurai Beach at Port Stephens, 180 kilometers north of Sydney, on Tuesday when something unexpected and indistinct caught his eye.

He discovered he had photographed the face of a twisting shark just below the surface with his son on an apparent collision course. Hasson said shark experts had since told him it was a juvenile great white about 2.5 meters (8 feet) long.

“I saw the second photo and [thought]—no way,” Hasson told The Associated Press. “I quickly called him in and whistled.”

“He [Eden] saw a shape in the wave and thought it was seaweed and felt something as he went over the top—he got his leg rope caught on something—but he thought nothing of it until he saw the photo,” Hasson said.

James Cook University shark researcher Andrew Chin said the photographed shark was possibly a small great white.

“From the angle, it looks like the shark was spooked and is rolling away from the board to escape it,” China said. “There is no way that this is a hunting approach.”

Eden said he was glad he hadn’t seen the shark until he was safe on the beach and saw the photo.

“If I was on the wave and saw it, I probably would’ve freaked out and fell off,” Eden told Nine Network television on Thursday. “I was lucky I didn’t fall off.”

Port Stephens is on the northern coast of New South Wales state, which has experienced an extraordinary increase in shark attacks since a Japanese tourist was killed by a great white in early 2015.

Hasson said he was back in the surf with Eden and his siblings, aged 12 and 5, on Wednesday to enjoy the final week of the school summer vacation.

“Everyone’s back to business. It’s too good a lifestyle sport not to,” Hasson said. AP

PROBLEM DOWN THERE

By Eddie Pells

The Associated Press

T was bound to happen.

Even the least cynical track fan could peer through the smoke screen that enveloped Jamaica’s antidoping program and recognize things weren’t right. Eventually, that was bound to ensnare Usain Bolt, the spirit-lifting superstar whose reach goes well beyond his own island but who is still losing one of his nine Olympic golds because of the problems down there.

On Wednesday the International Olympic Committee (IOC) stripped Jamaica’s 2008 Olympic 4x100 relay team of its gold medal.

The 37.1-second trip around the track, a world record at the time, goes off the books, too.

UP Vanguard chessfest set SIA’S first Grandmaster (GM) Eugene Torre and first Filipina Woman GM Janelle Mae Frayna will see action in the inaugural University of the Philippines (UP) Vanguard Rapid and Blitz Chess Open Tournament, set from March 29 to April 2, at the UP Department of Military Science and Tactics in Diliman, Quezon City.

National Chess Federation of the Philippines (NCFP) Director Raymund Linsangan said the tournament has two divisions—Open and Women—and they expect more than 300 players to vie for the total prize of P480,000.

NCFP Vice President Neri Colmenares, who joined Linsangan in the recent Philippine Sportswriters Association Forum at the Golden Phoenix Hotel Manila, said the tournament also aims to identify potential masters.

Saturday, January 28, 2017 A7

It all has to do with Nesta Carter, a bit player on the Jamaican sprint scene who was caught taking a banned stimulant that was detected in reanalysis of samples the IOC has been holding since the Beijing Games.

Carter joins a growing list of Jamaican champions who have been busted for doping over the last several years: Yohan Blake, Asafa Powell, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, Sherone Simpson. Details of all these cases vary, most have been explained away. None, on their

own, stand out as major affronts to the antidoping system, the likes of which have been documented in the disturbing case against the Russian sports machine.

And yet, all have this in common: Had Jamaica been running a no-excuses antidoping system for the last 10 to 15 years, no athlete would’ve felt secure pushing the envelope with banned stimulants or any other such substance.

And Bolt might still have his medal.

A few years ago Renee Anne Shirley, the one-time executive of Jamaica’s antidoping agency who was ousted suddenly and without much explanation in 2013, offered this shocking statistic: In the five months leading to the London Olympics, Jamaica’s antidoping agency conducted a grand total of one out-ofcompetition drug test.

“It wasn’t good,” said David Howman, the former World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) director general who played a role in Jamaica’s many reboots. “The only testing effectively done in relation to Jamaica was done by the IAAF [track’s governing body].

The problem there was the testing was done in Jamaica by people who had conflicts.

There were some issues.”

It’s not that people didn’t try to help.

In 2010 at Wada’s urging, Jamaica’s antidoping board was dissolved to rid it of people who also led sports associations on the island—a basic conflict of interest that should’ve been dealt with years sooner. The folks at the US Anti-Doping Agency sent experts in for six months to analyze the problems and offer solutions. They were more or less told, “Thanks, but no thanks.”

“I’m not surprised,” said Doug Logan, who ran USA Track and Field in 2008. “It’s not a real

well-kept secret that the antidoping regimens in Jamaica haven’t been overly rigorous over the course of the years.”

And yet, Logan, who proudly wears the label of concerned cynic when it comes to track, says he would not include Bolt among those he views with suspicion.

“It’s intuitive, just based on knowing him, watching him,” Logan said. “I think he’s a generational talent. I have nothing I know that would lead me to believe he has not had a clean career.”

Clean or not, his Olympic gold-medal tally now stands at eight. It’s little consolation that, in the eyes of some experts, including Howman, Jamaica might finally be getting its antidoping program in shape. There’s also this: The IOC still holds samples from the London Games, and has a 10-year window to reanalyze them. Carter was on the team that won gold that year, too.

Next up, in addition to possible appeals over the IOC ruling, come the logistical and political challenges involved in Jamaica’s Olympic committee rounding up the medals—five of them, including the sprinter who ran in Bolt’s place for the preliminaries. If that’s successful, they’ll redistribute the hardware to the new “winners” from Trinidad and Tobago, who finished nearly a full second behind the Jamaicans and would’ve still been that far back had Carter been replaced by virtually anyone else on Jamaica’s sprint team.

(The US team is not a factor in this conversation. The 2008 prelims marked one of its many mishaps on baton exchanges.)

Maybe more interesting will be the new bar-room debate over what this does to Bolt’s legacy.

Is he now 8-for-8 at the Olympics, 8-for-9, or, simply, 9-for-9 with an asterisk that he really doesn’t deserve?

Does this diminish anything he’s done—most notably, transform a scandalencrusted sport into an eminently watchable smile-fest whenever he’s on the track?

“It’s really unfortunate that Bolt’s name obviously comes up in this,” said Ato Boldon, the Olympic sprinter-turned-NBC track analyst, “because the whole world cheered him on to get those nine medals, and obviously he doesn’t have the nine anymore.”

Bulk Movers BusinessMirror

Loading and rolling toward progress A8 Saturday, January 28, 2017 | Editor: Tet Andolong

Philconstruct Manila 2016 exhitbittoday.com

Transporting lives and goods, moving economy forward

By Leony R. Garcia

W

HEN there is no way to transport people, animals and goods from one location to another, then life could be at a standstill—such a dull life with no movement or no activity at all. That’s why transportation is important, because it enables trade between people, which is essential for the development of civilizations.

Even in this modern time and technology, many countries in the world continue to improve their transport infrastructure, including roads, airways, waterways, canals, pipelines and terminals, such as airports, railway stations, bus stations, warehouses, trucking terminals, seaports, fuel stations, as well as refueling depots and docks.

Transport has been a spur to expansion. Better transport allows more trade and a greater spread of people. Economic growth has always been dependent on increasing the capacity and rationality of transport.

In a bid to improve the country’s economy, the current administration continues to strengthen its public-private partnership (PPP) projects. The pipeline already includes regional infrastructure projects: the operations, maintenance and development of the Panglao Airport, Laguindingan Airport, Bacolod Airport, Iloilo Airport and Davao Airport, as well as the modernization of the Davao Sasa Port.

Truck and bus manufacturers all over the world, likewise, continue to upgrade their products and services, given the need of the changing

times. Known to be the bulk movers, cargo carriers and still the basic transportation means for many people in cities and provinces, buses may come in many forms and sizes but still with the same purpose— sturdy enough to hold many people and heavy baggage while enduring long drives.

Improvement in the country’s infrastructure means improvement in the lives of the people, as well as their capacity to buy vehicles for business or personal use.

More vehicles sold in 2016

A joint report by the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. (Campi) and the Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA) released on January 10 showed the two industry organizations had a to-

tal sales of 359,572 units from January to December last year.

Automotive vehicle sales growth for the full-year 2016 further accelerated to 24.6 percent, faster than the 22.9-percent expansion in 2015.

Total sales in 2016 were higher by 70,963 units, from 288,609 units sold in 2015. Sales of Campi and TMA have been growing by doubledigit for five consecutive years since 2012.

Campi and TMA sales in 2012 grew by 11 percent, while recording a 16-percent and 30-percent growth in 2013 and 2014, respectively.

Moreover, both sales in commercial-vehicle and passenger-car segments were robust in 2016.

The growth was led by commercial-vehicle segment, with sales increasing by 31.4 percent

to 226,284 units in 2016, from 172,228 units in 2015.

Sales of light commercial vehicle (LCV) and Asian utility vehicle (AUV) both increased by 30 percent to 145,863 units and 66,380 units, respectively.

Sales of light trucks jumped 70 percent to 8,614 units, while trucks and buses Category IV rose 46 percent to 3,489 units and Category V climbed 64 percent to 2,038 units last year.

Passenger-car sales for the January-to-December 2016 period went up by 14.4 percent to 133,188 units, from 116,381 units in the same period in 2015.

The Philippine automotive industry targeted to sell 370,000 units at end-2016.

The other industry organization,

Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors (Avid), has yet to release aggregate sales of its group.

Latest available data from Avid showed that its January-to-September 2016 sales reached 68,746 units.

Hence, with the available figures from Campi, TMA and Avid, the local automotive industry has exceeded its target for last year.

Meanwhile, Campi and TMA sales for December 2016 alone increased by 27.8 percent to 34,104 units, from 26,679 units in the same month in 2015.

Automotive-vehicle sales growth for the full-year 2016 further accelerated to 24.6 percent, faster than the 22.9-percent expansion in 2015.

Total sales in 2016 were higher by 70,963 units, from 288,609 units sold in 2015.