11-mo trade gap widens 71.2% to $37.9B
T
HE country’s trade performance would likely take a hit from the ongoing global shipping problems as well as the spread of the omicron variant, local economists said Tuesday. T he Ph i l i p p i ne St at i s t i c s Authority (PSA) reported that exports grew 6.6 percent while imports grew 36.8 percent in November 2021. In the January to November period, ex ports growth averaged 15.2 percent and imports, 30.4 percent. The countr y’s trade deficit widened to $4.7 billion in November, leading to a cumulative trade deficit of $37.92 billion in the January to November period. The deficit surged 119.5 percent
in November and 71.2 percent in the 11-month period. “Our external trade may be affected through potentially lower domestic demand amongst our biggest trading partners due to specific people movement restrictions to shutdown Omicron impact,” UnionBank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion told the BusinessMirror. “With supply chain issues, we may not have seen the last of this particular challenge yet, even as the pandemic rages on with the Omicron variant leading the way,” he added. Asuncion also said they expected the country’s external trade performance since their
trade deficit forecast was at $4.3 billion for November. He added that their initial exports growth forecast was pegged at 8.6 percent and imports performance was estimated at 33.7 percent. The UnionBank economist said the reopening of the economy in recent months was the primary driver of the growth in the country’s imports and the underperformance of exports relative to imports growth. Asuncion said this can still be rooted in global demand challenges, including supply chains that have yet to return to prepandemic normal. “The gap shown in November
was extreme. That will not likely happen. But we should expect the BOT [Balance of Trade] deficit will still hit a new record,” University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) economist Victor A. Abola also said in an e-mail. Ateneo Center for Research and Development (ACERD) Associate Director Ser Percival K. PeñaReyes told the BusinessMirror that the current trend of the trade deficit will likely continue. Peña-Reyes said global demand was “still pretty much subdued” and this will affect the country’s external trade performance, primarily exports. He added that the See “Trade,” A2
BusinessMirror BusinessMirror
OF MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDS ROTARYROTARY CLUB OFCLUB MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDS
2006 National Newspaper the Year 2006 National Newspaper of theofYear 2011 National Newspaper the Year 2011 National Newspaper of theofYear 2013 Business Newspaper of the 2013 Business Newspaper of the Year Year 2017 Business Newspaper of the Year 2017 Business Newspaper of the Year 2019 Business Newspaper of the Year 2019 Business Newspaper of the Year 2021 Pro Patria Award 2021 Pro Patria Award PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY 2018 Data Champion PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY 2018 Data Champion
EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS
BUSINESS NEWS NEWS BUSINESS SOURCESOURCE OF THE YEAR OF THE YEAR
(2017, 2018, 2019,2018, 2020)2019, 2020) (2017,
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 2018 BANTOG MEDIA AWARDS
www.businessmirror.com.ph
2018 BANTOG MEDIA AWARDS
broader look atattoday’s today’s business AA Abroader broaderlook lookat today’sbusiness business
Wednesday, January 12, 2022 Vol. 17 No. 96
SUPPLY CHAIN ‘FIXES’ FOCUS OF INVESTMENTS n
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 18 pages | 7 days a week
THINK TANK STILL SEES PHL RECOVERY IN ‘22 AMID OMICRON, POLLS By Cai U. Ordinario @caiordinario
T
HE Philippine economy is still poised to recover this year despite the Omicron variant of Covid-19 and the uncertainties brought by the change in administration, according to the First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC)-University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) Capital Markets Research. In a briefing on Tuesday, UA&P economist Victor A. Abola said GDP growth this year is expected to reach 6 to 7 percent. Full-year GDP growth in 2021, which will be officially released toward the
AIR travelers fill the Ninoy Aquino International Airport booking area as a result of the cancellation of domestic and international flights. The Philippine Airlines on Monday announced it would cancel several flights due to staff shortage, as at least 10 percent of its cabin crew frontline roster either tested positive or are in precautionary quarantine due to exposure to Covid-positive patients, PAL spokesman Cielo Villaluna said. NONIE REYES
F
By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad @Tyronepiad
URTHER investments in warehousing facilities are expected this year to address the supply chain constraints fueled mostly by port congestion amid the pandemic, according to Oxford Economics. See “Supply,” A2
end of the month, is expected to average 5.1 percent. The Philippines is also expected to retain its credit rating; the government still has some fiscal and monetary space; and inflation is expected to slow with oil forecasted to hit $60 per barrel toward the end of 2022. “The [elections] would be the bigger risk [for the economy compared to rising Covid-19 cases]. I mentioned that the elections have to be credible, more than anything. It doesn’t matter who is elected. It’s more whether the votes are counted properly and that’s See “Recovery,” A2
NCR health-care utilization rate key to AL 4 By Samuel P. Medenilla
M
@sam_medenilla
ALACAÑANG said the National Capital Region (NCR) is unlikely to be placed under Alert Level 4 anytime soon as its health-care utilization rate is still below 70 percent. Acting presidential spokesman Karlo B. Nograles issued
the statement when asked if the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) is now considering further raising the Alert Level 3 amid the surge in Covid-19 cases in the region. The concurrent Cabinet Secretary noted that while NCR has already met the threshold to be raised to Alert Level 4 in terms of
two-week growth rate and Average Daily Attack Rate, it has not reached the critical health-care utilization rate. “The total bed utilization has yet to reach 71 percent and up, and that is the reason why we are in Alert Level 3,” Nograles said. “We are closely monitoring the total utilization. If it reaches 71 percent to 84 percent, this is the
time we can say Metro Manila must be placed under Alert Level 4,” he added. On Tuesday, the Department of Health (DOH) reported that intensive care unit (ICU) beds utilization in NCR was at 54 percent. The utilization of isolation beds is at 60 percent, while for ward
PESO exchange rates n US 51.3470 n japan 0.4457 n UK 69.7190 n HK 6.5869 n CHINA 8.0521 n singapore 37.8609 n australia 36.8055 n EU 58.1659 n SAUDI arabia 13.6798
See “Al 4,” A2
Source: BSP (11 January 2022)