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A broader look at today’s business
2021 IN NUMBERS:
www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Saturday-Sunday, January 1-2, 2022 Vol. 17 Nos. 85-86
P25.00 nationwide | 20 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
A YEARENDER REPORT
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By Cai U. Ordinario
HAT if the year could be defined by just one economic indicator? Wouldn’t that be something? But, as it turned out, it can’t. Indeed, there are a number of indicators that stood out in 2021. The BusinessMirror interviewed economists, statisticians and analysts to weigh in on these numbers. Many of the answers were dead giveaways while others were not, and not always for the reasons Filipinos expect.
The year that was
EVEN before it began, a lot of judgment had been passed regarding the state of affairs in 2021. For pundits, 2021 signified déjà vu. They would say 2020+1, which meant 2021 would only be a repeat of 2020, this generation’s annus horribilis. In the beginning, it seemed the pundits were correct in their assumptions. First growth numbers were not that encouraging at a contraction of 3.9 percent. Second was the lackluster growth of employment, with millions continuing to be part of the unemployed. But what dimmed the lights for many Filipinos was the surge in cases in the third quarter which kept Filipinos locked down in their homes. The surge in Covid-19 cases in September saw cases peaking at 22,455 on September 13. This placed the country’s 7-day moving average of the country’s Covid-19 cases to 17,937 cases. The 7-day moving average, however, peaked in the week of September 6 when it reached 18,274. September 6 recorded the second highest number of Covid-19 cases at 22,428. At that time, many Filipinos were feeling hopeless—an ominous dark cloud hung over their
hopes for a bright and reunited Christmas. Many economists also feared the economy would again tank in the third quarter of the year due to the surge. But the government was not worried because of their vaccination efforts. Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua has repeatedly expressed confidence in the vaccination drive, leading him to believe less stringent mobility restrictions were just weeks away. His optimism was given some credence when cases started declining. Right after peaking at 22,455 cases on September 13, the country recorded 19,563 cases on September 14. There was no looking back after that day as cases started declining to the three-digit level, a huge relief for an entire country imprisoned in over 650 days of lockdown, the longest in the world. At that point, much like gravity, what goes up must come down, the opposite happens as things begin to turn out better than expected. This optimism found toward the end of the year has even prompted the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to revise its growth forecast for the Philippine economy. Despite the pandemic and the detection of a new Covid-19 variant, Omicron, the ADB revised its economic growth forecast for the year to 5.1 percent in 2021, higher than its 4.5-percent forecast in September. For 2022, the ADB estimates that the Philippine economy will post a growth of 6 percent, better than the 5.5-percent projec-
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 50.2690
ROMEL LO-ANG plays with his horn, a Christmas gift from his godfather, near their damaged home due to Typhoon Odette in Cebu City on Christmas Day, Saturday, December 25, 2021. His mother Alona Nacua said she and her husband managed to receive rice and four small cans of sardines and corned beef to be able to feed their family Saturday. “It's the saddest Christmas for me, seeing my children suffer this way on this day,” added Nacua, who is pregnant. AP/JAY LABRA
tion the Manila-based multilateral development bank made three months prior. The ADB said this is largely due to the “resilience” shown by the Philippine economy. In the third quarter, the country’s GDP grew 7.1 percent owing to the steady recovery of consumption spending, the primary driver of the country’s economic performance. The fourth quarter, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), could be even better given the expected holiday consumption and decline in Covid-19 cases as well as vaccination efforts.
Beyond GDP
CERTAINLY, it is worth noting that the story of 2021 is incomplete without people and knowing how they have fared this year amid their struggles and the grief that they have experienced due to Covid-19. “It has to be the family of indicators based on official and unofficial statistics that tell the story of how badly or inefficiently we managed the Covid crisis and its impact on the lives of people, particularly the poor and the marginalized,” Romulo A. Virola, former head of the National Statistical Coordination Board, told the BusinessMirror. Continued on A2
n JAPAN 0.4378 n UK 67.5515 n HK 6.4461 n CHINA 7.8928 n SINGAPORE 37.1428 n AUSTRALIA 36.3344 n EU 56.8693 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.3851
Source: BSP (December 29, 2021)