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Thursday, January 9, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 91
Experts assess likely cost of Mideast conflict
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By Bernadette D. Nicolas @BNicolasBM & Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz @joveemarie
IGHER oil prices, declining remittances and a multibillionpeso bill for bringing thousands of Filipino workers to safety—that might be the cost of the unfolding geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Economists on Wednesday said they see a decline in remittances from the regions, aside from the higher oil prices posing a risk to the country’s inflation rate.
This, even after Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said he does not expect remittances to be hit hard despite recent international developments
that began with a January 3 United States air strike on Baghdad airport, killing a top Iranian general. On Wednesday, Labor Secretary Silvestre H. Bello III said manda-
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It’s a VUCA world Rene E. Ofreneo
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₧20B V The estimate by President Duterte of what might be needed as a standby fund for the mass evacuation of OFWs in the Middle East, according to Speaker Cayetano
UCA stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. It was coined in the 1990s by a confused American military establishment after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the former Eastern European Soviet bloc led by the USSR. Suddenly, the American security forces, dedicated to combating Communism during the Cold War era (1940s-1980s), had no identifiable enemy to slay.
tory repatriation has been imposed for overseas Filipinos in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon after the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) raised the alert level to 4, following Iran’s retaliation early on Wednesday, unleashing a barrage of missiles at
VUCA was immediately embraced by a number of management gurus and human resource managers. It became a handy tool in describing the dynamics of competing and working in a globalized and liberalized economic environment—constantly changing, uncertain, complex, contradictory, so many gray areas, and so on.
Continued on A8
Continued on A7
M3’s Nov rise mild despite RRR cut
Demand for Pinoys seen to ease pain from cuts in Mideast remittances By Bianca Cuaresma
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@BcuaresmaBM
HE escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will have a direct effect on the Philippines, particularly in the banking sector and the larger economy, but the big demand for Filipino workers elsewhere could ease that impact, a senior bank official said on Wednesday. In a roundtable with the BusinessMirror, Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Executive Vice President and Corporate Banking Head Juan Carlos Syquia said the Philippine banking sector will likely feel the effect of the Middle East tensions largely through expectations of remittance declines, though the impact won’t be felt right away. “Definitely their jobs will be compromised. At the best, compromised; at the worst lost. In the banking aspect I think it will be affected especially as this escalates. We will watch those closely on the effect not only on the banking sector but on the economy,” Syquia said. In the same forum with the BusinessMirror, Syquia acknowledged that the OFWs’ financial engagements with banks have expanded, from simple deposit accounts or remittance transactions to bigger investments and loans, especially in real property and cars. O n Wed nesd ay, P resident
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Duterte ordered the mandatory repatriation of Filipinos living and working in Iraq, as tensions between Iran and the US continued to grow during the day, dragging Iraq because it hosts US bases. It was also near Baghdad’s airport where a US air strike on January 3 killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. On Wednesday, Tehran retaliated with a missile barrage on two US facilities in Iraq. US forces in Iraq rely on thousands of skilled overseas Filipino workers to run their bases, and Duterte had sought guarantees for their safety. The OFW have largely shunned calls to skip Iraq as a workplace, because of the handsome compensation offered by their Western employers. According to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data, remittances from Iran only amounted to $409,000 in the first 10 months of 2019. Remittances from Iraq were posted at a meager $259,000, but Central Bank officials had earlier noted that some remittances from that zone are being sent through informal channels or are coursed through a different country source, given the sensitivity of the OFW’s work for the Americans. Meanwhile, the entire Middle East remittances, however, yielded a sizable $5 billion—roughly a fifth of the total around the world—in January to October 2019. See “Pinoys,” A2
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Bank of the Philippine Islands Executive Vice President and Corporate Banking Head Juan Carlos Syquia gestures as he discusses the possible impact on the Philippine banking sector and the economy of the tension in the Middle East. NONIE REYES
Retail price of rice fell to 3-year low in December By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
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@jearcalas
he average retail price of rice in the first week of December fell to a three-year low of P36.56 per kilogram, according to a report published by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). In its weekly price monitoring report, the PSA said the average
retail price of regular milled rice (RMR) as of the first week of December declined slightly to P36.56 per kg, from the previous week’s P36.66 per kg. “On an annual basis, it also went down at a rate of 12.7 percent from its level of P41.88 per kg in the same week of the previous year,” the PSA said. Historical PSA data showed that
the figure is the lowest average retail price of the staple in more than three years, or since the P36.56 per kg recorded in the third week of March 2016. In the same report, the PSA disclosed that the average wholesa le pr ice of R MR dipped to P33.09 per kg, from last week ’s P33.17 per kg. See “Rice,” A2
HE growth of cash circulating in the local economy grew faster in November, but remained at a single-digit pace despite the release of cash due to the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported on Wednesday that domestic liquidity—broadly measured as M3—expanded by 9.8 percent to about P12.4 trillion in November 2019, faster than the 8.5-percent growth in October. At this level, the BSP vowed to “monitor domestic liquidity dynamics to ensure that overall monetary conditions remain in line with maintaining the BSP’s price and financial stability objectives.” A growing cash supply is often beneficial for an expanding economy such as the Philippines, as it provides fuel to the productive sectors of the country. However, an excessively slow growth in M3 could be detrimental to the country’s overall growth, especially if it is not enough to fuel the productive activities in the economy. An excessively high cash supply growth, meanwhile, could stoke inflationary pressures and pull prices upward for the economy.
US 50.8410 n japan 0.4689 n UK 66.7390 n HK 6.5363 n CHINA 7.3195 n singapore 37.6628 n australia 34.9176 n EU 56.7131 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.5540
See “M3’s,” A8
Source: BSP (8 January 2020)