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n Sunday, January 3, 2016 Vol. 11 No. 87
P25.00 nationwide | 3 sections 16 pages | 7 days a week
Milder El Niño, govt preparations tame inflation expectations for ’16
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By Bianca Cuaresma
SHARP increase in the growth of consumer prices in the country will not be seen—despite the expectation of an acceleration of inflation at the beginning of 2016— as the predicted effects of the drought season have been tamer than projected. week ahead
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW Peso n Previous week: The local currency only traded for two days during the week owing to the holiday trading suspension. On Monday the peso hit 47 to a US dollar, with a thin trading volume of $280.75 million. On the last trading day of the year, the peso slightly depreciated to 47.06 to a dollar, closing the year on the floor of the 47 territory. The total traded volume on Tuesday hit $372.75 million. n Week ahead: Barring unforeseen developments, the peso is expected to open 2016 with a quiet trading play, as markets look for fresher leads and await moves from economies and central banks in the local and international scene.
Inflation
n November 2015 inflation: The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported last month that inflation hit 1.1 percent in November 2015, accelerating from the 0.4-percent inflation in October. This is the first time that inflation accelerated since February 2015. This is also the highest inflation since June this year, when it See “Outlook,” A2
In a special commentary on the Philippines’s December 2015 inflation rate, Singapore-based DBS Bank economist Gundy Cahyadi said the rate of inflation will be slow to creep up only within the target range for the year. Cahyadi said the DBS Bank has revised its inflation forecast of the Philippines for 2016 owing to the said developments, from the initial 3 percent down to 2.5 percent. This is near the lower end of the government’s target range of 2 percent to 4 percent for the year. Particulars of its downward revision for inflation include the more modest impact of El Niño on the country and its agricultural production.
Cahyadi: “Despite global commodity prices staying benign, both headline and core inflation might have bottomed out in the third quarter of 2015.”
Cahyadi also said supply fears in the country have eased significantly, following the government’s pledge to increase food imports for 2016. See “Inflation,” A2
Think tank foresees MCIA’s rapid growth By Lorenz S. Marasigan
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HE aviation hub in Cebu, which is currently being marketed as the world’s first resort airport, is poised to grow rapidly in the coming years, thanks to the capacity constraints at Manila’s premier international gateway. In fact, Mactan-Cebu International Airport (MCIA) emerged as one of the fastest-growing airports in Southeast Asia, with passenger growth through the first 10 months of 2015 increasing by 13 percent to 6.4 million passengers. This was boosted by the relaunch of several domestic and international routes by Philippine Airlines (PAL), Cebu Pacific and several foreign carriers.
PESO exchange rates n US 47.1660
The airport may have ended 2015 with nearly 8 million passengers, initial figures showed. “Given its current growth spurt, Cebu could pass the 10-million annual passenger milestone by 2018, and be close to processing 12.5 million passengers at the end of this decade,” aviation think tank Center for Asia-Pacific Aviation (Capa) said in a report. “With the new private owners, the airport should be able to continue expanding and keep up with growing demand for an alternative hub in the Philippines.” All local carriers, five foreign low-cost carriers and four foreign full-service airlines are served by MCIA. “The Cebu airport is well groomed to be an option for airline expansion, given the steady 6-percent to 7-percent per annum Continued on A2
China building second aircraft carrier in bid to project power
In this October 30, 2012, file photo, Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning docks at a port after its first navy sea trial in Dalian, in northeastern China’s Liaoning province. AP
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EIJING—China has announced that it is building a second aircraft carrier—and its first using entirely domestic technology—as the country seeks to project its military influence farther from its shores.
The carrier is being built from scratch with domestic technology in the northeastern port city of Dalian, China’s defense ministry announced on New Year’s Eve. It “has a displacement of over 50,000 tons and uses regular engines,” ministry spokesman Col. Yang Yujun said in a news conference, according to a statement on the ministry’s web site.“It can load J-15 and other carrier-loaded aircraft.” China’s first aircraft carrier, a refurbished 25-year-old Ukrainian ship called Liaoning, was put into service in 2012. “China always adheres to the path of peaceful development, and firmly upholds an independent foreign policy of peace and a defensive national defense policy,” Yang said. “We have a long coastline and a vast maritime area under jurisdiction. To safeguard maritime security, sovereignty, and interests and rights is the sacred mis-
sion of the Chinese armed forces.” Yang said the military has “drawn on a lot of useful experience from the scientific tests and training of the first aircraft carrier,” and that the new carrier will have improvements in many areas. He did not give a timeline for the carrier’s completion Beijing in recent years has stepped up its territorial claims in the South and East China seas—parts of which are also claimed by Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan—with a degree of aggression that has surprised observers and strained diplomatic ties. Beijing claims most of the 1.3-million-square-mile South China Sea, and despite strong protests by its neighbors, has overseen an elaborate artificial island-building project on reefs also claimed by the Philippines. The US has deployed its own aircraft carriers to the area—in-
cluding a high-profile October patrol within 12 nautical miles of the islands—drawing harsh rebukes from Beijing. The South China Sea is thought to be rich in oil and gas; more than $5 trillion in global trade passes through the sea every year. Military analysts, both Chinese and foreign, have for months been circulating images of an incomplete aircraft carrier hull in Dalian, causing speculation that a second carrier was in the works. “The new hull, first noted under construction in imagery captured on March 10, 2015, is in an advanced state of assembly,” said a September post on the web site of the military intelligence magazine IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly. Only 12 countries maintain active aircraft carriers, and very few have more than one. The US maintains 19 ships that could be classified as aircraft carriers, far more than any other country. TNS
n japan 0.3920 n UK 70.1783 n HK 6.0857 n CHINA 7.2697 n singapore 33.5176 n australia 34.2652 n EU 51.7411 n SAUDI arabia 12.5766
Source: BSP (29 December 2015)