BusinessMirror February 12, 2024

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‘Supply shocks ahead to be worse’ than pre-Covid

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HE recent slowdown in inflation may not indicate that the season of low commodity prices is here to stay, as certain factors would justify a hawkish stance to be adopted by central banks worldwide, according to Oxford Economics. In its latest economic brief, Oxford Economics said the mix of supply shocks in the next few years will be even “more damaging than the prepandemic years.” The impact on shipping by the recent Red Sea attacks is telling; they have already caused global shipping rates to surge by 200 percent and shipping costs between China and Europe to increase by 300 percent. “It may be more realistic to view

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that prepandemic period as exceptional, and to regard the recent run of adverse supply shocks—and resultant sharp swings in inflation— as a return to more ‘normal’ conditions of higher inflation volatility,” Oxford Economics. The UK-based think tank said this is another argument to support the caution exercised by central banks when it comes to cutting rates too soon. Oxford Economics said it expects central banks to be more wary of supply shocks moving forward. It said that the theory suggested that increases in inflation would be short-lived, with a horizon of two to three years. However, the think tank said based on recent developments,

supply shocks have been able to not only increase inflation but also trigger second-round effects that tight monetary policy intends to prevent. This, Oxford Economics said, means inflation could be higher and more volatile moving forward. It will also be less anchored on inflation targets. While the think tank does not expect this to be a sufficient reason to prevent central banks from cutting rates this year, it will convince monetary authorities to take it slow when it comes to easing policy rates. “If inf lation is more volatile, and expectations react more to actual price swings, it will become more likely that central

banks will have to tighten monetary policy in response to episodes of higher inf lation—even if caused by a shock that may be temporary—to re-anchor expectations and hence prevent persistent second-round effects,” Oxford Economics said. “The experience of recent years suggests that this may require relatively large interest rate cycles compared to a scenario in which inflation expectations are wellanchored,” it added. Earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said commodity prices slowed to 2.8 percent in January. Inflation was the slowest since October 2020 when inflation averaged at 2.3 percent.

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See “Supply,” A2

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DOF: EASING INFLATION TO SPUR H2 RATE CUTS w

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Monday, February 12, 2024 Vol. 19 No. 120

P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 20 pages |

By Reine Juvierre S.Alberto

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HE slowdown in commodity prices is expected to fuel Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto’s confidence that the Monetary Board will start cutting rates in the second semester of the year.

See “DOF,” A2

'DOYA,' ONCE MORE Isuzu Gencars Chairman D. Edgard A. Cabangon (9th from left) beams with pride as he holds the 2023 Dealer of the Year Award bestowed upon Isuzu Makati by Isuzu Philippines Corporation (IPC). He is flanked by IPC President Tetsuya Fujita (8th from left). They are joined in the photo by Isuzu Gencars Makati’s executive officers (from left: Parts Supervisor Jose Gio, Jr., Naga Assistant Aftersales Manager Glenn San Juan, Legazpi Assistant Aftersales Manager Anthony Blasa, Aftersales Manager Ma. Elena Perez, Naga General Manager Moel Montemayor, Gerry Teruel, Sharon Tan, Gencars Operations Executive Giannina Eunice Cabangon, Gencars President Lerma Nacnac, Sales and Marketing Manager Ma. Victoria Albaña, Assistant Service Manager Krislene Faye Omoy, Vice President of Sales and Marketing Albert Zata, and IPC Executive Vice President Shojiro Sakoda. Full story and related photo in Companies, B1. ROY DOMINGO

OVER 100-M PINOYS LIVING IN CITIES BY 2050–WORLD BANK By Cai U. Ordinario @caiordinario

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VER 100 million Filipinos or almost the entire country’s population today will be living in urban areas or cities in 2050, according to the World Bank. In a blog, World Bank urban geographer Sarah Elizabeth Antos and consultant Yimin Zhou said 102 million Filipinos will live in cities—a figure that is estimated to be double the number today. The experts said in the Philippines, majority or 70 percent of urban local government units (LGUs) are planning for smart cities to accommodate these Filipinos. “While national government agencies and LGUs’ enthusiasm and

commitment towards smart city transitions are plausible, the journey faces significant challenges. Success requires a structured, collaborative approach involving various stakeholders,” the experts said. The experts said 61 percent of the country’s LGUs have smart city projects in progress, and 56 percent already have policies to support the development of smart cities. However, the experts said based on 59 percent of LGUs, their challenges pointed to a lack of digital infrastructure and systems as a challenge while another 57 percent of these LGUs noted that their challenges are focused on the technical competencies and manpower shortage. See “100-M,” A2

Bangsamoro EZA can now grant incentives to investors By Manuel T. Cayon @awimailbox Mindanao Bureau Chief

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AVAO CITY—The Bangsamoro Economic Zone Authority (Beza) can now grant incentives to investors. This was announced by the Fiscal Incentive Review Board (FIRB) in late January. It also said that the BEZA was authorized to be an investment promotion agency (IPA) for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Beza Executive Director Sukarno Abas described this status as a milestone that would “enable the agency to fully operationalize its authority to grant fiscal and non-fiscal incentives to investors and enterprises willing to set up

or establish their businesses in the BARMM economic zones.” This, Abas said, “will entice potential investors to put up businesses that will expand economic opportunities in the region, particularly the industry and services that generate more jobs, increase productivity, and generally improve the quality of the living conditions of the Bangsamoro people.” He said investment promotion would “create awareness of the current investment opportunities in the country to attract investors with the means to provide job opportunities and increased productivity in the economy.” The FIRB agreed to certify Beza as an IPA, “giving it the authority to grant incentives under the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives See “Bangsamoro,” A2

EXPLAINER »B4

CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS AFFECTING A KEY ENERGY LIFELINE FOR EUROPE. HOW BIG IS THE RISK?

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 56.0330 n JAPAN 0.3782 n UK 70.7641 n HK 7.1663 n CHINA 7.7870 n SINGAPORE 41.7129 n AUSTRALIA 36.5223 n EU 60.3756 n KOREA 0.0422 n SAUDI ARABIA 14.9413 Source: BSP (February 8, 2024)

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Recto told reporters during the 2024 National Tax Campaign that no further rate hikes are expected, now that inflation has slowed to within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expectations. In January, inflation slowed to 2.8 percent, which is within the BSP’s 2 to 4 percent target, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). (See: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2024/02/06/ inflation-slows-to-2-8-in-januaryslowest-since-october-2020-psa/). “I don’t expect a future rate hike because inflation is going down and it seems like it is going down globally,” Recto, a government sector representative to the Monetary Board, the highest policy-making body of the BSP, said.


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BusinessMirror February 12, 2024 by BusinessMirror - Issuu