DTI PINS HOPES ON FRESH, WIDER U.S.-PHL GSP DEAL
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Monday, February 8, 2021 Vol. 16 No. 120
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 20 pages |
JAN PRICE SURGE NOT STAGFLATION, BUT RISKS ABOUND—EX-BSP EXEC By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM
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ESPITE surging above the government’s threshold for the year at a time of economic recession, the recent inflation acceleration is transitory and can’t be considered “stagflation” at this point, according to a former Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) senior official. In a response to the BusinessMirror’s queries, former BSP deputy governor for the Monetary Stability Sector sector Diwa Guinigundo said the upside surprise to price growth pushed some economists to raise concern, but inflation at this point is generally expected to revert to normal in the next few months. “I don’t think we are in stagflation at this point. We are in probably prolonged economic slowdown because A BILLBOARD announcing construction of a high-end mixed commercialresidential facility encloses a parking lot on Urban Avenue in Makati City, as buildings on the financial district's Buendia Avenue are seen in the background. Most experts say fears of stagflation—a situation of economic contraction along with runaway inflation—are premature, but stress that government must move swiftly to ensure business recovery while a massive vaccine drive curbs the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. BERNARD TESTA
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By Elijah Felice E. Rosales
@alyasjah
HE Philippines stands to lose nearly $2 billion worth of shipments if the country loses its trade incentive from Washington, as the government hopes Democrats would set aside their critical view of President Duterte in favor of economic cooperation. Estimates by the Department of Trade and Industry’s Export Marketing Bureau (EMB) showed the Philippines may have to cut its exports to the United States by $1.87 billion if it loses its preferential
treatment. The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) granted by the US to developing nations, including the Philippines, expired on December 31 of last year. As such, GSP beneficiaries are wait-
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 48.0650
ing for the US Congress to pass a new bill that would reactivate the trade privilege for another three years. According to the EMB, the Philippines was the fifth top beneficiary of the US GSP in 2019, and it posted a utilization rate of 74 percent of the mechanism. The GSP allows Manila to export a total of 5,057 products, or close to half of the 10,600 US tariff lines, to the US market at zero or reduced tariff rates. Most of Philippine exports that employ the GSP are leather products, such as trunks, suit cases, vanity cases, executive cases, brief cases, school satchels and spectacle cases.
Lopez: Renew, expand
LOOKING forward, the EMB hopes American legislators expand the list of products authorized to use the GSP to include footwear. Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez himself said he expects the US Congress to renew the GSP, as well as improve the export categories under it. “We are hopeful that the next US Congress will expand its coverage, to include footwear, in the next GSP reauthorization,” EMB said in an email to the BusinessMirror. “All countries with GSP are expecting a renewal of the GSP. We hope it would be again for three years or more,” Lopez told reporters last Friday. Continued on A5
of the pandemic-induced scarring. Due to base effects, it is likely we could show some modest positive output growth this year and the next, but to say we could recover pre-pandemic growth levels this year or early next year might indeed be a little ambitious,” Guinigundo told the BusinessMirror. “Yes, inflation for January 2021 at 4.2 percent exceeded the Government target of 2 to 4 percent but this is essentially supply- driven and is expected not to persist,” he added. Stagflation is an economic term used when an economy is experiencing a relatively consistent high rate of price increases coupled with a stagnation in economic conditions, usually seen through high unemployment rates or contraction in a country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Continued on A2
Experts list what to track, tools to keep ready as ‘S’ word follows inflation data By Cai U. Ordinario @caiordinario
& Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz
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@joveemarie
ITH the economy still in recession and millions still looking for jobs, the recent spike in inflation in January sounded off alarm bells for what could be a very bad economic omen: stagflation. However, local economists interviewed by the BusinessMirror disagree with this saying that without runaway inflation, or inflation rates of above 50 percent, there could be no stagflation. Still, most experts interviewed
agreed on the need to track the risks that could fan more inflation upticks this year, including global oil markets. They also pulled out possible tool kits for the government, stressing the need to move fast on the vaccine rollout in order to hasten economic recovery but pouring in more assistance to hard-hit sectors. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) earlier dismissed the 4.2-percent inflation in January, despite being a two-year high, as temporary. While economists agreed with the Central Bank, they said this did not mean the economy is now in the clear. Continued on A4
n JAPAN 0.4554 n UK 65.7241 n HK 6.1998 n CHINA 7.4266 n SINGAPORE 35.9553 n AUSTRALIA 36.5246 n EU 57.5002 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.8143
Source: BSP (February 5, 2021)