Consumption, poll boost to hike growth By Cai U. Ordinario @caiordinario
T THE WORLD » A7
Biden issues infrastructure ‘roadmap’ to help spend $1T
HE expected surge in consumption and election spending in the first semester of the year would likely increase the country’s GDP to around 6 to 7 percent, according to a local think tank. In its latest Market Call report, First Metro Investment Corporation and University of Asia and the Pacific Capital Markets Research said the growth in consumption in the fourth quarter of last year would likely spill over to the first half of 2022. This will be supported by election spending, which is expected to accelerate in the run up to the May 2022 Presidential elections, and with
government spending for infrastructure ahead of the election ban to be imposed by the Commission on Elections in March. “We expect an acceleration in GDP growth in 2022 by at least 1 percentage point to 6 percent to 7 percent. The outsized gain in employment may correct in December, but the momentum spawned by Christmas outlays and election spending should carry the torch at least for H1-2022 [first half 2022],” the think tank said. “NG [national government] expenditures in 2022 should outperform, as infrastructure spending ratchets up.” The think tank added its outlook remains positive despite the recent increase in crude oil prices. Inflation, it said, is expected to average
3.7 percent this year amid government’s moves to keep food prices low. However, due to the interest hike in the United States as well as the country’s record trade deficits, the peso will likely stay above the P51 to the dollar level for the rest of 2022. Earlier, the Philippines recorded a trade deficit of $43.34 billion in 2021. This is the highest since 2018 when the deficit reached $43.53 billion. In December 2021, this deficit reached $5.21 billion, the highest since the country recorded a trade deficit of $5.74 billion in December 2019. In terms of the peso to the dollar, the think tank said the 200-day moving average continued on the
uptrend. FMIC-UA&P Capital Market Research said the peso is expected to depreciate in the near to medium term. “A hawkish Fed and surge in Omicron cases globally contribute to the US dollar’s strength. Furthermore, the actual FX broke through 30day MA by end-December fueling expectations of peso weakness,” the think tank said. “Robust inward OFW remittances should continue in December, which has helped temporarily buoy the peso. However, the widening trade deficits due to high crude oil prices and stronger economic growth in 2022 should keep the peso on a depreciation mode,” it also said.
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Wednesday, February 2, 2022 Vol. 17 No. 117
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NET OUTFLOW FOR HOT MONEY HITS $574M IN ’21 By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM
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HORT-TERM investments made by foreign investors to the Philippines ended 2021 in outflow territory, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported. Foreign portfolio investments (FPI) to the country hit a net outflow of $574.46 million at the end of last year as the total FPI inflow of $13.62 billion fell short to compensate for the $14.19-billion total outflow during the year. While still in negative territory, the 2021 FPI numbers of the country is an improvement from the $4.24-billion net outflow seen in 2020.
More than 100 activists from Aniban ng Manggagawa sa Agrikultura-SANLAKAS picket at the gate of the Senate in Pasay City on Monday to call on the Senate to reject the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP). A state think tank has estimated the implications on Philippine growth of opting out, while a militant think tank says joining it is worse. ROY DOMINGO By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad
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@Tyronepiad
HE supply chain sector is anticipating another year of costly operations not only because of pandemic-induced disruptions but also due to investments in innovative measures to keep the industry resilient. See “Supply,” A2
FPI are known as “hot” or “speculative” money because they are easily pulled in and out of the local platforms with the slight change of global and local sentiment. In December alone, the country had an FPI net outflow of $4.38 million—reversing the $109.56-million net inflow in November. December’s net outflow, however, was an improvement from the December 2020 net outflow of $523.26 million. Broken down per instrument, net outflows for listed shares hit $956 million and for other portfolio instruments, $17 million. On the other hand, net inflows for See “Hot money,” A2
PHL talks to China on fertilizers as prices soar By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
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@jearcalas
HE Philippines is negotiating with China to secure a fertilizer supply deal to help Filipino farmers cope with the rising costs of the farm input that has more than doubled to P2,500 per 50-kilogram bag. The Philippines is offering to buy urea from China at a price of $500 per metric ton, lower than
“We told them that we need fertilizers and in principle, they have agreed to supply us the volume—whatever we require.”–Fertilizer and Pesticide Authority Exec Director Wilfredo C. Roldan
prices quoted in Europe but higher compared to some China commodity exchanges. T he World Ba n k ’s mont hly com mod it ies pr ice re por t showed the price of urea in Europe last December 2021 was at $890 per metric ton. The quotations of urea per metric ton at China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) as of February 1 ranged from CNY2,361 to CNY2,608, equivalent to about
$370 to $410. Fertilizer and Pesticide Authority (FPA) Executive Director Wilfredo C. Roldan disclosed that talks between the Philippine and Chinese governments about a fertilizer supply deal have been progressing, with Manila making its formal price offer to Beijing. “We have made some progress. As of now China has already stopped See “Fertilizers,” A2
PESO exchange rates n US 51.2730 n japan 0.4448 n UK 68.7161 n HK 6.5804 n CHINA 8.0504 n singapore 37.8482 n australia 35.8142 n EU 57.1540 n SAUDI arabia 13.6663
Source: BSP (31 January 2022)