three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012
U.N. Media Award 2008
BusinessMirror
www.businessmirror.com.ph
week ahead
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW Foreign exchange n PREVIOUS week: the local currency traded further at the lower band of the 44 territory, indicating continuous strength against the US dollar. The peso started trading at 44.115 against the greenback at the start of the trading week, which further appreciated to 44.06 to a dollar on Tuesday. Tuesday’s peso value is the strongest that the peso has been against the dollar since mid-September last year. On Wednesday, however, the peso snapped its 10-day appreciating trend to slightly depreciate back to 44.085 to a dollar. The peso further corrected on Thursday to 44.11 to a dollar, and ended the week with a 3-centavo appreciation at 44.08. The total traded volume for the week is at about $3.519 billion, larger than the $3.2 billion seen in the previous week. n Week ahead: Traders say the peso is still likely to sustain its low 44 territory trading against the dollar on the back of the central bank’s intervention. Markets will also look for fresh leads on trading in the next week, including the country’s inflation and economic data releases in the US.
Inflation
n December inflation: The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported last month that inflation See “Outlook,” A2
A broader look at today’s business
n Sunday, February 1, 2015 Vol. 10 No. 115
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BSP eases deflation fears Where Did All This T Oil Come From?
By Bianca Cuaresma
HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) shrugged off fears of deflation owing to the sharply decreasing oil prices in the international market, saying that the risk in the country is “not significant.”
Tetangco: “As for deflation materializing in the Philippines, the risk is not significant.” STEPHANIE TUMAMPOS
In a forum in Makati City, BSP Gov. Amando M. Tetangco Jr. expressed confidence that the country’s inflation will remain positive owing to strong demand conditions. “I have been asked whether we are worried about deflation [due to the substantial decline in oil prices]. Well, deflation effects in the advance economies can spill over to our economy through lower trade. However, trade, as a percentage of GDP [gross domestic product], is still relatively lower than those of our peers in the region. So the risk here is probably only of a relatively small magnitude,” Tetangco said in his speech at the Security Bank’s 2015 economic forum on Friday. “As for deflation materializing
in the Philippines, the risk is not significant,” Tetangco added. The governor further explained that strong demand conditions, as well as consumption, continue to anchor prices in the country. He also noted that the government is expected to ramp up its investments to avoid further underspending, and that there are upside risks to inflation, such as pending petition for utility rates, wage rigidities and the potential power shortages. “There are other factors that lead us to say that deflation is remote—or that inflation would remain positive,” Tetangco said. Deflation is the overall decline Continued on A2
PHL 2015 GDP outlook back to bullish–Deutsche Bank
EUTSCHE Bank expects a rebound in the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 6.5 percent this year on strong double-digit government spending and very low oil prices. Deutsche Bank Managing Director for Research Rafael Garchitorena said the Philippines is back in the sweet spot and back to bullish. He said government’s low spending is a drag in 2014, and he sees it to rebound this year. “We’re looking at 20-percent to
30-percent growth in government expenditures and with the falling oil price globally, the Philippines is a major beneficiary,” he said during the Security Bank economic forum on Friday. Garchitorena said the country’s 2013-2014 oil imports amounted to $13 billion, equivalent to 4.5 percent of the GDP in 2013 and 2014 forecast. He said the falling oil prices, trade, higher consumption and low inflation were major boost to GDP growth. With the low inflation, he sees
PESO exchange rates n US 44.1320
policy interest rates on hold until May or later. After years of anemic earnings growth of single-digit from 2011 to 2014, Garchitorena said earnings are to accelerate +19 percent in 2015. Garchitorena sees risks, such as government spending faltering again this year, the power outages and port congestion, put off manufacturing investments. Other risks were uncertainty heading into presidential elections in May 2016, as investment sentiments were tied to governance.
We burn 2.7 million gallons a minute, so why’s oil so cheap?
N
EW YORK—The world burns enough oil-derived fuels to drain an Olympic-sized swimming pool four times every minute. Global consumption has never been higher‚ and is rising. Yet, the price of a barrel of oil has fallen by more than half over the past six months, because the globe, experts say, is awash in oil. So, where did all this oil come from? The Earth has been accumulating oil and natural gas for about a billion years or so. Humans have been drilling and burning crude and gas in significant amounts for only the last 156 years, since the 1859 birth of the oil industry in Pennsylvania. So, even when oil prices spiked earlier this decade amid worries that oil supplies would soon run low, scientists and oil companies knew there was plenty available. It was not so much a question of how much oil and gas was left in the Earth’s crust, but whether we could figure out how to squeeze it out and make money doing so. “How much oil we have is an economic and technical question, not a geologic one,” says Doug Duncan of the US Geological Survey. “There’s far more than we can extract economically using today’s technology.” More than enough, for now at least, to sustain record-high consumption of 91.4 million barrels per day. There are 42 gallons in a barrel, so that is 3.8 billion gallons per day. Looked at another way, it is as if every human on the planet went through a gallon of oil every two days. AP
n japan 0.3729 n UK 66.4849 n HK 5.6930 n CHINA 7.0646 n singapore 32.6058 n australia 35.2127 n EU 49.9574 n SAUDI arabia 11.7419 Source: BSP (30 January 2015)